BI or Zion: Who do you want the Pelicans to trade for Scoot?

[Pelicanidae]

As for the middies, I posted the stats to prove it was not incorrect yesterday. You are the one playing with the stats minimizing mid range into "short mid range" as if I didn't see that BS the first time. But that's what you do besides hide behind these black box stats you know most people will never look up. Much less understand.

I'll post all the numbers for you again direct from nba.com. Maybe that'll help you.

You're right, it is all there on non-black box sites anyone can look up.

Which is why I looked them up.

On basketball reference:

2020-21: 726 total 2ptA
2021-22: 757 total 2ptA
2022-23: 671 total 2ptA

2020-21 shot profile: 14.4% of his shots taken from 0-3 feet, 11.5% from 3-10 feet, 22.4% from 10-16 feet, 17.6% from 16ft to the 3pt Line
2021-22 shot profile: 14.0% taken from 0-3, 15.2% from 3-10, 24.9% from 10-16, 22.9% from 16-3pt
2022-23 shot profile: 14.3% taken from 0-3, 19.0% from 3-10, 27.7% from 10-16, 19.4% from 16-3pt.

Adding the 10-16 and 16-3pt line numbers together to account for a general 'midrange' without short or long divisions, you can see that he took 40% of his shots from the midrange in 2020-21, and then basically the same proportion (47.8 and 47.1%) in each of the last two years.

3ptAr has dropped from 34.1%, to 23.0%, to 19.6% in each of those years.

So it's pretty clear to see that in those three years, his percentage o shots taken from 0-3 feet has remained more or less identical, whereas his 3pt frequency has nearly halved (something that's also evident in his per-game stats) and his frequency of shots taken from midrange - that is, from 10 feet to the 3pt line - has gone up.

His shot profile has become more mid-heavy over the last 3 years as he's stopped taking as many threes, and his rim frequency has remained the same. These numbers are publicly available, and I don't think the distances listed are unreasonable definitions of those ranges.

[hornetsrebirth]

The bolded section is the only bit I take quarrel with here.

If you want to trade Zion because of health, that's a legitimate thing - he's been injured every single year he's played. It's a real problem, nobody can deny that.

If you want to trade him because of ''off court distractions'', that's absurd. His ''off court distractions'' have been stuff that nearly every NBA player does. As mentioned in the past, Paul George knocked up a stripper while he was in a relationship to a coaches daughter and nobody cared. Trading Zion for having consensual sex with grown adults is insane.

Plus, the stuff about Zion being the biggest contract - one of the biggest arguments in favour of trading Ingram is his GIANT incoming contract under the new CBA, a deal which may well be larger than Zion's all things included, and which will kick in alongside Trey and Herb, making the impact even larger.

If you're trading Zion, you're doing it on health, as far as I'm concerned that's the best argument for it. His contract situation is better than Ingram's, his ''off court distractions'' are run of the mill NBA player stuff, and his on-court performance is on another tier to Ingram.

Edit: actually correction, I also take quarrel with ''mamba mentality'', one of the biggest pieces of hogwash NBA mythmaking in my lifetime.

The complexity of NBA salary cap is something I do not have the time or mental space to devote to understanding. So if it is actual true that BI cost more than Zion, that is not what I expect but ok. Mamba mentality is a real thing. There is not a chance in hell that Kobe Bryant would be sitting out during a postseason do or die game and be physically able to play. Never ever ever. Having a team leader who does that is a culture problem.

[Algiersraised]

If we can’t keep both longer and the time to move is now bye bye Zion

[Fedupfan]

Fake trade news to deflect enjoy fatherhood @Zionwilliamson you betrayed me I’m done

— Moriah Mills �� (@moriahmillsss) June 14, 2023

Y’all it’s just fake news. This is why you don’t get a BBL. It causes poison to the brain.

[6warddude]

right now, im not trading the star who never shown me that he didnt want to come to new orleans or has made it public that he want to play in a certain arena...again, this is new orleans and if you have a star that have no problem being here then you build around that star.....

the team favored zion and BI and got rid of the trainer so imo we have to run it back with those 2 for at least 2 years and just live with the results.....but at some point we have to give into what zion dream is and trade him for all we can....it would be crazy to hold on to zion until the last minute knowing that this young man has a dream to play in front of the garden crowd.....imo we all should believe that zion will do everything in his power to make his dream become a reality while he is still in his 20s....

so, im running it back with BI and zion for a couple of years then making a clear cut decision on zion to be traded then go from there.......

[luckyman]

You're right, it is all there on non-black box sites anyone can look up.

Which is why I looked them up.

On basketball reference:

2020-21: 726 total 2ptA
2021-22: 757 total 2ptA
2022-23: 671 total 2ptA

2020-21 shot profile: 14.4% of his shots taken from 0-3 feet, 11.5% from 3-10 feet, 22.4% from 10-16 feet, 17.6% from 16ft to the 3pt Line
2021-22 shot profile: 14.0% taken from 0-3, 15.2% from 3-10, 24.9% from 10-16, 22.9% from 16-3pt
2022-23 shot profile: 14.3% taken from 0-3, 19.0% from 3-10, 27.7% from 10-16, 19.4% from 16-3pt.

Adding the 10-16 and 16-3pt line numbers together to account for a general 'midrange' without short or long divisions, you can see that he took 40% of his shots from the midrange in 2020-21, and then basically the same proportion (47.8 and 47.1%) in each of the last two years.

3ptAr has dropped from 34.1%, to 23.0%, to 19.6% in each of those years.

So it's pretty clear to see that in those three years, his percentage o shots taken from 0-3 feet has remained more or less identical, whereas his 3pt frequency has nearly halved (something that's also evident in his per-game stats) and his frequency of shots taken from midrange - that is, from 10 feet to the 3pt line - has gone up.

His shot profile has become more mid-heavy over the last 3 years as he's stopped taking as many threes, and his rim frequency has remained the same. These numbers are publicly available, and I don't think the distances listed are unreasonable definitions of those ranges.

I'll go with the source that has the resources for on court cameras and sensors to track what its players do.

Instead of going the more ambiguous shot attempt route, how about the more direct "drives"? The best there is for that is per game (per possession or per min not available). Per nba.com

Drives per game:

22' - 23': 13.6 drives, 6.8 fga, 3.9 pass, 2.8 fta
'21 - '22: 11.9 drives, 5.1 fga, 4.5 pass, 2.2 fta
'20 - '21: 12.9 drives, 5.5 fga, 5.0 pass, 2.0 fta

So that jibes with exactly what I said. With him being much more aggressive with shot attempts on those drives.

[Pelicanidae]

I'll go with the source that has the resources for on court cameras and sensors to track what its players do.

Instead of going the more ambiguous shot attempt route, how about the more direct "drives"? The best there is for that is per game (per possession or per min not available). Per nba.com

Drives per game.

If you want to get into who is the more valuable driver and creator of shots at the rim, we can, but I don't think you would like the outcome.

[Pelicanidae]

The complexity of NBA salary cap is something I do not have the time or mental space to devote to understanding.

Zion's contract had a huge provision in it that depended on him making all-NBA this year. He didn't, so he's only getting the 25% max.

That's why there's a risk of Ingram's contract being no better than Zion's in terms of size; there's no way he gets the same provisions in his deal, he's getting the full max he's eligible for - here or elsewhere. No way his agent allows it.

[donato]

Pelicans Believed To Be More Open To Trading Zion Williamson Than Brandon Ingram https://t.co/58ftCSHOQe

— RealGM (@RealGM) June 14, 2023

[Darkhorse985]

I'm talking the last 2 years when Ingram has basically taken over as face of the franchise, no Jrue, roster overhauls, rookies all over the starting lineup, and Zion in street clothes basically the entire time.

That is to say, a winning record and a playoff appearance despite ALL of that.


If you can find a way to downplay that one, it will truly be remarkable and your best yet.

Go.

But did we actually win consistently?

[luckyman]

If you want to get into who is the more valuable driver and creator of shots at the rim, we can, but I don't think you would like the outcome.

Compared to Zion or Scoot, who has yet to play an NBA game? If Zion, seems you done got lost again. Thats not why this came up.

And if Zion wasn't more impactful driving to the rim, he might not even be in the NBA. Literally his bread and butter.

Seems we agree BI attacked the rim more last year though. Matter of fact more than any top tier wing outside of Jimmy Butler. Or am I "completely incorrect" still...

[luckyman]

But did we actually win consistently?

Given those circumstances, they won way more than they should have. And certainly not to the point they ended up +.500. That's a testament to #14.

I'm willing to bet they were the vegas underdog in at least 60% of those games.

[Pelicanidae]

Compared to Zion or Scoot, who has yet to play an NBA game? If Zion, seems you done got lost again. Thats not why this came up.

And if Zion wasn't more impactful driving to the rim, he might not even be in the NBA. Literally his bread and butter.

Seems we agree BI attacked the rim more last year though. Matter of fact more than any top tier wing outside of Jimmy Butler. Or am I "completely incorrect" still...

He's attacked the rim last year exactly as much as he did the prior two years.

The fact that you consider 5ft a rim attempt and I don't is the difference between these arguments. NBA.com calls a 5ft floater a rim attempt, I don't consider that to be the case. You entire argument is based on taking a definitional difference and blowing it up as if it means that Ingram's not a midrange-first player. He is, everyone knows it, but acknowledging it right now would mean conceding the point so you're going to refuse to do so.

But you know, if being purposefully obtuse helps you feel like you won the argument, you take that and run.

[luckyman]

He's attacked the rim last year exactly as much as he did the prior two years.

The fact that you consider 5ft a rim attempt and I don't is the difference between these arguments. NBA.com calls a 5ft floater a rim attempt, I don't consider that to be the case. You entire argument is based on taking a definitional difference and blowing it up as if it means that Ingram's not a midrange-first player. He is, everyone knows it, but acknowledging it right now would mean conceding the point so you're going to refuse to do so.

But you know, if being purposefully obtuse helps you feel like you won the argument, you take that and run.

First of all, pretty sure I listed "restricted area" attempts before the < 5ft, which parse out restricted area. And those attempts went UP this year as well and at a higher level than basketball reference shows.

If that wasn't enough, I also just posted DRIVE stats, which is far more direct than shot attempts. You so hot about this you skipped over that? His DRIVE stats went up 15% y/y and higher than any wing not named Jimmy Butler. The next highest wing is Jalen Brown at 11.4 per game. Nobody said BI isn't a mid range player. Thats not the point. But you know that. This is about what he provides and what might be lost if he goes.

Yet you're on here calling me obtuse? Like I said, some people on here are really emotional about Zion and behave really odd about Brandon Ingram.

[Pelicanidae]

NBA.com's definition of drive stats is in reference to half-court attacks towards the basket off the dribble, they don't actually have to terminate in shots at the rim or passes out; they can just as easily terminate in a pull-up 12 footer. Listing Ingram's drive stats as if that proves that is attacking the basket more and shooting middies less is completely irrelevant; and remember, that's where this discussion began. You claimed that he was attacking the basket more, shooting midrangers less.

I think ultimately we're going to have to agree to disagree here - you think I'm being sneaky with stats, I think you're completely misrepresenting them (or using ones with unhelpful definitions). If you want to keep arguing, we can do so in PMs but we're kind of derailing the thread at this point.

[luckyman]

NBA.com's definition of drive stats is in reference to half-court attacks towards the basket off the dribble, they don't actually have to terminate in shots at the rim or passes out; they can just as easily terminate in a pull-up 12 footer. Listing Ingram's drive stats as if that proves that is attacking the basket more and shooting middies less is completely irrelevant; and remember, that's where this discussion began. You claimed that he was attacking the basket more, shooting midrangers less.

I think ultimately we're going to have to agree to disagree here - you think I'm being sneaky with stats, I think you're completely misrepresenting them (or using ones with unhelpful definitions). If you want to keep arguing, we can do so in PMs but we're kind of derailing the thread at this point.

Except you're lying and adding words again. The actual definition per nba.com...

"When a player attacks the basket off the dribble in the halfcourt offense. Does not include situations where the player starts close to the basket, catches on the move, or immediately gets cut off on the perimeter."

Where did "toward" come from and why throw that in there? The actual definition does not portend to shooting a damn 12 footer.

We haven't done this in a while so it was nice and nostalgic. But you're a real sourpuss on BI. We know that.

Agree to disagree. Moving on.

[As I See It]

Except you're lying and adding words again. The actual definition per nba.com...

"When a player attacks the basket off the dribble in the halfcourt offense. Does not include situations where the player starts close to the basket, catches on the move, or immediately gets cut off on the perimeter."

Where did "toward" come from and why throw that in there? The actual definition does not portend to shooting a damn 12 footer.

We haven't done this in a while so it was nice and nostalgic. But you're a real sourpuss on BI. We know that.

Agree to disagree. Moving on.

You think?

[Pelicanidae]

Where did "toward" come from and why throw that in there?

We haven't done this in a while so it was nice and nostalgic. But you're a real sourpuss on BI. We know that.

Agree to disagree. Moving on.

I was going from memory, I didn't look it up, that's where ''toward'' came from. Nevertheless, attacking the basket does not mean you actually end up taking a shot directly at the basket - and I think we both know that.

I like BI, you know that as well. You just find it a lot easier to pretend that I don't because then you can frame everything I say in a negative light rather than discussing it on its merits. Hence, yeah, moving on. Not a productive conversation.

[Pelifan]

most to least likely to win a championship as the best player on a team:

Zion > Scoot > Ingram

I mean it's a slim chance for all of them but it's that simple for me.

[Darkhorse985]

most to least likely to win a championship as the best player on a team:

Zion > Scoot > Ingram

I mean it's a slim chance for all of them but it's that simple for me.

Yes. I agree with this. I will rephrase it as most likely combo to eventually win a championship if healthy:

Zion/Scoot > Ingram/Scoot > Zion/Ingram

Need a good PG to win championships. I am betting the front office agrees with this. Gayle just may be more tired of the Zion circus though.

I am also willing to bet that either the Hornets or Trailblazers would take Ingram over Zion right now, and that may be what it takes to get the pick.

[Pelicanidae]

most to least likely to win a championship as the best player on a team:

Zion > Scoot > Ingram

I mean it's a slim chance for all of them but it's that simple for me.

Pretty much. The contract situation makes it more telling, but even just going on players, this is my view.

The reality is that you need an MVP calibre player to be a real championship contender. Teams without players on that level don't win chips very often - there have been single digit numbers of championship teams without such a player in NBA history.

The entire process of trying to win in the NBA can be, to some extent, boiled down to trying to acquire THAT guy. Zion is a huge risk because of his health issues, which we have all discussed a million times and are very real, but when healthy, he is THAT calibre of player. Unless you think the situation is truly untenable, you keep him.

Therefore it all comes down to whether you think Scoot has the potential to be better than Ingram or not - or at least more impactful because of position or whatever. If you do, you trade Ingram. If you don't, you keep him.

What you really really don't want to do is fall into the Bradley Beal trap of paying the monstrous contract to someone because you didn't move them when you had the chance and now you're stuck with this guy who costs the world but will never be that MVP level player.

[Darkhorse985]

What you really really don't want to do is fall into the Bradley Beal trap of paying the monstrous contract to someone because you didn't move them when you had the chance and now you're stuck with this guy who costs the world but will never be that MVP level player.

This. Ingram is Scottie Pippen. Zion has MJ potential. Scoot has more MJ potential than Ingram. The ?we love and need to keep Ingram because he is loyal and hard working? fan club will never acknowledge this.

This trap is even more damaging to a small market team.

[PELICANSFAN]

Facts! You have to have a PG, without a PG, it doesn?t matter who the forwards are.

How do you define a PG? There are not many traditional PGs in the NBA any more. Most are either combo guards or wings (or Jokic) facilitating the offense.

[As I See It]

Funny how all of a sudden we need a competent PG. Better late to the party than never attending, I guess,

LOL

[PELICANSFAN]

Pelicans Believed To Be More Open To Trading Zion Williamson Than Brandon Ingram https://t.co/58ftCSHOQe

— RealGM (@RealGM) June 14, 2023

Just regurgitating what Stein speculated from his "observer source." The end result will be nothing and we can try and hope for a solid prospect at 14 or a trade involving that pick.