An Argument for Running It Back Next Season

[MichaelMcNamara]

From Article:

There is nothing that gets a fan base more excited than change, or even the possibility of change. Even when a franchise is winning, a tweet, or a message board post about that team possibly acquiring a new player will get more views than any other topic by a wide margin. The thinking is that the right player can turn a bad team into a good one, or a good team into a great one, or even a great one into an elite one. After the Heat won two straight titles, one of the biggest topics on Miami message boards that summer was whether the Heat could add Carmelo the following summer. It’s just what we do, and there is nothing wrong with it.

But it is not always the right thing to do if you are an NBA GM.

The Atlanta Hawks finished a disappointing 38-44 last season under first year Head Coach Mike Budenholzer, and despite pushing the #1 seed in the East to seven games, many of their fans supported wholesale changes. Al Horford had been unable to stay on the court two of the three previous seasons, Paul Milsap and Demarre Carroll were going into the last years of their contract, and Jeff Teague was a guard in his mid-20’s that had shown flashes of greatness but had never been able to be great consistently. The Hawks were a mediocre team by most metrics, finishing with a -0.5 point differential. On top of that, they had little to no cap room and a first rounder in the late teens, so there didn’t seem to be a way to add a major piece to their squad without sending a couple of core guys out.

But a funny thing happened last summer. They did add two major pieces, and no I am not talking about Thabo Sefolosha and Adreian Payne. I am talking about Health and Continuity. Their top 8 guys have missed a total of 44 games combined this season (Horford missed 53 by himself the year before), and several of those have come because of rest due to the fact that Atlanta is so far ahead of everyone else in the Eastern Conference. The other thing they added was continuity. Guys got another training camp together. They bought into the systems and became that much more comfortable with them now that they had another year under their belts.

They went from 18th in offensive rating to 6th. They climbed from 14th to 8th on the defensive side of the ball. And all they did personnel wise was send out Louis Williams and add Thabo Sefolosha. Trust me, this isn’t an article about how great Sefolosha has been for the Hawks, and how he turned them around. In fact, he has been pretty bad this year and hasn’t been a difference maker in any single aspect. He has played the fewest games of all their rotation players (45), is shooting terribly from deep (29%), and has continued his decline defensively as well. He is not the reason Atlanta is better; Health and Continuity are.

Read the rest of the article at:

http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/20...k-next-season/

Curious about how you guys would feel about this, and what realistic alternative routes you would prefer if you are opposed to this idea.

[AD23nEG10]

If McGee was cheaper than Ajinca this offseason would you entertain bringing him in as a backup even with his baggage?

[donato]

Great article as usual. I think I agree (assuming Dell and Monty are back). Too many unanswered questions about too many guys on our team at the moment, and it does make more sense to be more aggressive a year down the road (as needed).

[MichaelMcNamara]

If McGee was cheaper than Ajinca this offseason would you entertain bringing him in as a backup even with his baggage?

Probably not. I like Ajinca behind Asik because I can play offense/defense. McGee would be a little too similar to Asik as far as what he provides if he gets his head on straight. IF

[jprdbulldog20]

Really good article. When you look at all the lineup numbers, it really is amazing how bad our injury luck has been. My optimistic side leads me to believe that with a mostly healthy roster for the majority of next season, we can finish in the top 4 in the west.

[Hugeaux II]

While I agree with the plan of bringing it back, it's not like anything has gone to plan yet...
In my mind, even if Dell and Monty are back, the 2 places I see the best odds of change are:
1- Asik gets priced out for us. If somebody pays more than we are willing to, how much space does this open up?
2- Ryno gets traded, either because he wants to start or because he's the best trade asset we've got

Much as I am not an Asik fan, I also don't see a reasonable plan B. keep Ajinca and sign McGee, and pray? As much as I feel better about Ajinca as a back-up, what could we afford.
and with Ryno, on the court we may be selling low, and off the court this guy is everything you want in a player (heck, he's everything you want in a son)

Another year in the system, with some health, could do wonders as laid out in the article - and with our particular set of players and contracts we are much more flexible next trade deadline and next summer anyway. The timing of any 'blow it up and start over' plan is better then right? We are better off running it back and seeing if it works any way you look at it.

[new city champ]

Good piece and good analysis. I think your argument is persuasive when you look at the big picture. Running it back one more year with Monty and this roster is a viable option given that cap flexibility we are going to have next offseason. Obviously, Gordon's expiring deal is going to become more and more attractive (assuming no injury and this level of play) from this point forward. I could see us potentially making a major move at the trade deadline next year, but I could also see us playing out the year if things are going well. The one question I might have is, assuming Dell comes back (as I think he should), does he go for keeping Monty and if you do keep Monty, do you give him any sort of extension this offseason or bring him back on a "prove it" basis on the last year of his deal?

[MichaelMcNamara]

Good piece and good analysis. I think your argument is persuasive when you look at the big picture. Running it back one more year with Monty and this roster is a viable option given that cap flexibility we are going to have next offseason. Obviously, Gordon's expiring deal is going to become more and more attractive (assuming no injury and this level of play) from this point forward. I could see us potentially making a major move at the trade deadline next year, but I could also see us playing out the year if things are going well. The one question I might have is, assuming Dell comes back (as I think he should), does he go for keeping Monty and if you do keep Monty, do you give him any sort of extension this offseason or bring him back on a "prove it" basis on the last year of his deal?

That's the toughest part of this whole equation IMO. Usually, if you believe in a coach, you give him an extension before his final season. Pels could kind of be playing with fire if they don't. But, as long as the players don't view him as a lame duck coach, I think it will be fine.

[Asteptooslow]

The Hawks got rid of Josh Smith which was a big help. We have our own Josh Smith. Even though I like him he has to go. AHHHAHHHHAHHHA....REEEKKKKE. Excuse me...hope I didn't get any on you.

[Jabberwalker]

The Hawks got rid of Josh Smith which was a big help. We have our own Josh Smith. Even though I like him he has to go. AHHHAHHHHAHHHA....REEEKKKKE. Excuse me...hope I didn't get any on you.

Josh Smith was on the Pistons in 13-14.

[new city champ]

That's the toughest part of this whole equation IMO. Usually, if you believe in a coach, you give him an extension before his final season. Pels could kind of be playing with fire if they don't. But, as long as the players don't view him as a lame duck coach, I think it will be fine.

You could probably structure a new three-year deal with some outs tucked away in the fine print so if things go sideways you could buy him out without breaking the bank. It's tough to still have questions about your coach at this stage of the rebuild, but given the injury situation, I think we still don't know what he can do with a full roster and time. I do think his players want to play for him and that counts for a lot in my book as does his approach to handling the players and his genuine desire to bring a winner to New Orleans. He's a good guy and you like to see that succeed.

[Kibner]

You could probably structure a new three-year deal with some outs tucked away in the fine print so if things go sideways you could buy him out without breaking the bank. It's tough to still have questions about your coach at this stage of the rebuild, but given the injury situation, I think we still don't know what he can do with a full roster and time. I do think his players want to play for him and that counts for a lot in my book as does his approach to handling the players and his genuine desire to bring a winner to New Orleans. He's a good guy and you like to see that succeed.

With Monty, I'm of the train of thought to keep him unless there is a significant chance for a clear upgrade. If Thibs is let go this off-season, he is borderline. I think he is a better coach, but his track record of playing his guys too many minutes would make me nervous, especially with how many guys we have that would be returning from injury.

I don't see anyone else that is likely to be on the market that would be markedly better than who we have now.

[DroopyDawg]

This paragraph is soooo depressing...

Dell Demps put the ‘Finishing Five’ together two summers ago. Guess how many games they have played since coming together. No, seriously, go ahead and guess……. TWENTY-FIVE! Twenty freaking five. Guess how many minutes? 189. To put that in perspective, the Cleveland games main lineup (Kyrie-JR Smith-Lebron-Love-Mozgov) have played 382 minutes together this year. Oh yeah, and two of those guys were added in January. In two months, the Cavs main lineup has played together twice as much as the Pelicans have over the last two years.

Great article MM. I agree with the run-back. But dammit will we ever be able to stay away form the injury bug? It seems like guys come here (to N.O.) and get hurt.

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

Nice article MM.
Maybe you can send this article to Loomis?

Seriously though, injury and continuity is this teams biggest problem. The team is almost there.

[DarkHornet]

I completely agree with the premise and want us to see us take this strategy. Somehow, I'm somewhat jaded in my confidence of us actually being healthier next season. I guess at this stage, I'll believe it when I see it.

[thiefinthenight]

This paragraph is soooo depressing...

[MichaelMcNamara]

Maybe we are cursed. But if we are, swapping out pieces will serve no purpose - they'll just get hurt too.

Gotta hope we aren't cursed and guys get right and stay right this summer.

[da ThRONe]

I don't really see much of a choice. I don't have much faith in this core, but at this point "riding it out" seems like the only logical course of action. I highly doubt we can get quality for anybody on this team other than Davis.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I don't really see much of a choice. I don't have much faith in this core, but at this point "riding it out" seems like the only logical course of action. I highly doubt we can get quality for anybody on this team other than Davis.

You could dump guys, stretch guys, and/or let FA's walk and then go after new guys. That would be a realistic alternative. No, I don't think you can get a lot for Tyreke, Ryno, or Gordon, but I think you can find a team willing to absorb any of them and then go pursue other guys like Monroe.

But I wouldn't be for that. I am excited about seeing what this team could be if we run it back and the injury gods reward us for our patience.

[Caffeinedisastr]

I am excited about seeing what this team could be if we run it back and the injury gods reward us for our patience.

Worked for Golden State.

Once they got healthy, they became scary.

[6warddude]

monty had a good team with cp3 and we made the playoffs...........monty had a good team this season and we were in the playoff race.....our starting 5 has now miss games due to injuries and we were still fighting for a playoff spot.......yeah we loss games that we should have won but injuries killed our playoff chances...........so imo when monty have a good /healthy team,,,,,we have the playoffs to look forward to.................his bad teams have been fun to watch a lot of times imo because the guys never gave up and seem to play for him............


So i say yes to bringing monty back.......yes to bringing dell back...............please sign a big that can play in the paint and you can give the ball to when our shots are not falling.......we havent had that since david west and carl landry were here.......

[Tin_Food]

I'd trade any of our other guys, and perhaps forgo any draft picks for the next 5 years if we could only get our top 3 players healthy and together for a few seasons, is that too much to ask?

[Bongzilla]

He does not deserve a pass. 5 years is 5 years. What ever happens during that time period is irrelevant. 5 years. We have the (3rd/4th) longest tenured head coach in the NBA.... does that seem right to any of you? Would you like to know who has been around longer than Monty?? Would you like to compare their winning percentages? Its ugly.

I truly hope that the Pelicans brass does not feel the way that the majority of the posters in this thread do.


Otherwise we will be reading YET ANOTHER very similar article to this one, next year......

[Yanks2740]

Cannot conduct business under the impression you are "cursed" as a franchise. They definitely need to give it another go with this group.

[Caffeinedisastr]

monty had a good team with cp3 and we made the playoffs..

Let's not forget how we took it to the defending champ Lakers, albeit with a less talented team.

We just need some seasoning without injury.