Love the guy, but the "Ryan Anderson Problem" is real?

[NMThreeMVP]

Ok, so your plan is to move them as a preemptive strike to success. Seems brilliant.


Yeah man, the pacers seems to be in such a bind making 2 ECFs. If we are in that "situation" I'll gladly take that.

My plan isn't to move "them". I'm talking specifically about the guy who plays the same position as our franchise player. My only contribution here is that NOW is the time to start considering Ryan Anderson's long term role with the team. Not a year from now when he has one year remaining and teams won't want to trade as many equal value or better assets for a 1 year rental, or when he expires and we either have to pay the prevailing rate of the market or lose him for nothing.

And if two years of ECFs and then the prospect of having to blow up a team that was never good enough to win the East or go into the luxury tax is your goal, you can have that! If you want to build a consistent finals participant and champion, planning 2 years out isn't only reasonable, it's necessary, and irresponsible if the Pelicans don't!

[504ByrdGang]

If we could trade Ryno for a Wilson Chandler type I pull the trigger but not for Chandler because he can't stay healthy.

[NMThreeMVP]

I am sure they want to see how he comes back from injury before they make that decision. We do not even have a clue how the group plays together to determine who stays and goes. They may have an idea, but we may not even have the same coach or GM 2-3 years from now.

I agree with most of that. That's why I said the next 9 months are very important. If all four pieces click and fit together and we find reasonable plugs at Center and Small Forward, then you roll the dice another year. But if there is even a bit of doubt about how Ryan Anderson fits long term, you have to consider moving him sooner rather than later, especially if you can get great value which may or may not include getting someone to free you of the possibility that Eric Gordon opts into his last year.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I dont think the pay raises assumed here are even close to accurate. IMO, Anderson never earns 10 million per in his career. Contracts are as much about the future as they are about the present. When these guys hit FA, they will have no "upside" left. They will be who they are, and that isnt exciting for GMs. Look at Tony Parker or Manu Ginobli's contracts in their late 20's.

These guys wont all have huge eye popping numbers because they will be sharing Anthony Davis's leftovers. Look at someone like Chris Bosh - you think he gets anywhere near his contract if he opts out and goes somewhere else this summer? No way, because his individual numbers arent great and he has no "upside"

I see very small pay bumps for Anderson and Jrue in their next deal, while Evans does have some potential to raise a bit but not to an unsustainable level. If AD is averaging 25+, and all the role players are getting you 30 or so, that leaves maybe 50 points to split amongst those 3. Jrue and Evans will be sharing the ball, so their assist numbers wont be huge. Long story short, dont worry about it.

[NMThreeMVP]

If we could trade Ryno for a Wilson Chandler type I pull the trigger but not for Chandler because he can't stay healthy.

I would trade Ryan Anderson for the "Ryan Anderson value equivalent" at a position of need, i.e. small forward (off the top of my head, someone like a Batum or Parsons, though not necessarily those guys).

I think center is less of a need. I'm hopeful Withy/Ajinca are adequate if our other guys are top 10 at their positions and Anthony Davis is the dominant superstar we think he is.

[Davisistheman]

He wants to see them win before he dies, if he thought he had a legit contending team it seems like he'd do it. Taking money away from your wife and children just so you can see your team win before you die fits the greedy profile just fine.

Total fabrication. He has never said this, eluded to this, mentioned this on secret recordings made while arguing or otherwise talking in private, made business decisions to support this, nor has anyone in his circle even mentioned this line of thought.

[BallSoHard]

I dont think the pay raises assumed here are even close to accurate. IMO, Anderson never earns 10 million per in his career. Contracts are as much about the future as they are about the present. When these guys hit FA, they will have no "upside" left. They will be who they are, and that isnt exciting for GMs. Look at Tony Parker or Manu Ginobli's contracts in their late 20's.

These guys wont all have huge eye popping numbers because they will be sharing Anthony Davis's leftovers. Look at someone like Chris Bosh - you think he gets anywhere near his contract if he opts out and goes somewhere else this summer? No way, because his individual numbers arent great and he has no "upside"

I see very small pay bumps for Anderson and Jrue in their next deal, while Evans does have some potential to raise a bit but not to an unsustainable level. If AD is averaging 25+, and all the role players are getting you 30 or so, that leaves maybe 50 points to split amongst those 3. Jrue and Evans will be sharing the ball, so their assist numbers wont be huge. Long story short, dont worry about it.

I guess this is another way to say it

[Mythrol]

Total fabrication. He has never said this, eluded to this, mentioned this on secret recordings made while arguing or otherwise talking in private, made business decisions to support this, nor has anyone in his circle even mentioned this line of thought.

You dont think trading for Jrue and Reke was a clear indication that he is interested in winning sooner rather than later?

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[NMThreeMVP]

You dont think trading for Jrue and Reke was a clear indication that he is interested in winning sooner rather than later?

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I think the trade for Jrue was to acquire a 23 year old PG that already flashed All Star potential rather than gamble on a smidge younger rookie in what was being called one of the worst drafts in history.

I think in acquiring Tyreke, Dell saw a situation where the Kings didn't have a strong interest in keeping a 24 year old, former rookie of the year asset, that could possibly play 3 positions, and fit into the starting line up at the scarce position of SG whenever the team is finally free of Eric Gordon.

Getting Jrue and Reke was about expediting progression towards true contention in a couple of years, with the outside shot of making the playoffs this past season.

All owners need to see progress. That's what Jrue and Reke was about. This team has fewer holes now than they did a year ago. I don't think anyone is actively in a race with the Grimm Reaper to contend for a championship!

[NMThreeMVP]

I dont think the pay raises assumed here are even close to accurate. IMO, Anderson never earns 10 million per in his career. Contracts are as much about the future as they are about the present. When these guys hit FA, they will have no "upside" left. They will be who they are, and that isnt exciting for GMs. Look at Tony Parker or Manu Ginobli's contracts in their late 20's.

These guys wont all have huge eye popping numbers because they will be sharing Anthony Davis's leftovers. Look at someone like Chris Bosh - you think he gets anywhere near his contract if he opts out and goes somewhere else this summer? No way, because his individual numbers arent great and he has no "upside"

I see very small pay bumps for Anderson and Jrue in their next deal, while Evans does have some potential to raise a bit but not to an unsustainable level. If AD is averaging 25+, and all the role players are getting you 30 or so, that leaves maybe 50 points to split amongst those 3. Jrue and Evans will be sharing the ball, so their assist numbers wont be huge. Long story short, dont worry about it.

As the tax line and salary cap move up, so will salaries.

In two years we'll know if your $10m number for Ryan Anderson is correct, but all I'm saying is someone over on Pelicans/Saints/Airline Drive needs to be projecting what Ryan Anderson's salary will be over the next 9 months, and figuring out what his role be.

If they agree with your projection, great! If they think he'll cost more than that but they have a clearly essential role for him, great! If they decide they want to maximize his trade value and move him at or before the 2015 deadline because they view him as an ancillary piece that could bring back a core piece or other assets they deem necessary, great! If they decide they need to package in order to move Gordon before 2015 free agency, that's great too!

BUT... if they think they can wait until next offseason or the following offseason when Ryan Anderson is a free agent to make a decision on what to do, I think that could be a huge mistake.

Again, I'm not worried about Ryan Anderson, I'm just suggesting that assessing his future with the franchise is something that may need to be done sooner than folks are thinking.

If I'm Dell, I don't hesitate to put a P.S. in my Christmas Card to Ryan's agent and ask, "by the way, how much do you think it's going to cost to resign Ryan??"

[Mythrol]

Getting Jrue and Reke was about expediting progression towards true contention in a couple of years, with the outside shot of making the playoffs this season.

That's just a fancy way of saying we are in win now rather than rebuilding through the draft.

[da ThRONe]

I dont think the pay raises assumed here are even close to accurate. IMO, Anderson never earns 10 million per in his career. Contracts are as much about the future as they are about the present. When these guys hit FA, they will have no "upside" left. They will be who they are, and that isnt exciting for GMs. Look at Tony Parker or Manu Ginobli's contracts in their late 20's.

These guys wont all have huge eye popping numbers because they will be sharing Anthony Davis's leftovers. Look at someone like Chris Bosh - you think he gets anywhere near his contract if he opts out and goes somewhere else this summer? No way, because his individual numbers arent great and he has no "upside"

I see very small pay bumps for Anderson and Jrue in their next deal, while Evans does have some potential to raise a bit but not to an unsustainable level. If AD is averaging 25+, and all the role players are getting you 30 or so, that leaves maybe 50 points to split amongst those 3. Jrue and Evans will be sharing the ball, so their assist numbers wont be huge. Long story short, dont worry about it.

It funny you use this arguing point yet when we talk about building through the draft you assume ever player that a team hits on requires a max deal. Seems like a double standard in logic to me.

[NMThreeMVP]

That's just a fancy way of saying we are in win now rather than rebuilding through the draft.

Not really. What I said, IMO was pretty clear. Getting Jrue and Reke when we got them will help us be a better team in a couple of years. That's not the same thing at all all as a fancy way of saying "win now".

[WhoDatPelican]

It funny you use this arguing point yet when we talk about building through the draft you assume ever player that a team hits on requires a max deal. Seems like a double standard in logic to me.

Not really, it's all about "upside" which he explained in the post.

Contracts are as much about the future as they are about the present.

[DefensiveMind]

It funny you use this arguing point yet when we talk about building through the draft you assume ever player that a team hits on requires a max deal. Seems like a double standard in logic to me.

It's not. You just aren't listening. When you have a bunch rookie deals expiring at the same time you have to assign value to what you think they will be as well as what they are. You tend to overpay young players based on what they could become and what the market would probably earn them. The young veteran route gives you a chance to control uncertainty, especially since you already know that Davis will be receiving his version of the max. You are fixing your costs and giving yourself a better understanding of your bottom line.

[DefensiveMind]

That being said. Jrue, Tyreke, and even Anderson were given contracts based on what they could become over the next few years. When they do well, they will have simply earned the investment levied to them. Damian Lilliard, conversely, when he makes his 2nd all star team next year is going to command Anthony Davis money. His current production + plus "his youth" and expected growth + his outplaying his rookie deal will make that a no brainer for Portland. But if you are Dell Demps or 29 other GMs, next to Davis would you want Lilliard's contract or Jrue's slight raise?

[NMThreeMVP]

Not really, it's all about "upside" which he explained in the post.

The error in the assumption is that our guys will no longer have "upside", or rather that "upside" is the greatest commodity.

My argument is that "peak performance", or better stated -paying for the best 4 years of a player's career- is worth more than "upside", if the players are top guys at their positions. And that's what Jrue, Reke, and Ryno's agents will almost definitely argue.

If we had the choice offering 4 year contracts to the 19-25 year old versions of Davis, Ryno, Reke, and Jrue, or the 25-32 year old version of those same players, which would we rather?

Teams do pay a lot of money for the chance and hope that a player will reach some of their upside while under contract, but they pay more for players in their primes that they believe will play at their peak levels for the majority of their contracts.

[MichaelMcNamara]

What has Ryno done differently since coming here that he didn't do the year prior in Orlando? And that guy was 4 yrs younger than the next contract Ryno will be. Why would that guy get much more?

People said Tyreke was overpaid after putting up an 18+ PER, again, at a young age. Why would 27/28 year old Tyreke get a huge pay raise? Unless he just blows up to a much higher level. And if that happens, that is a problem I would love to have


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[NMThreeMVP]

What has Ryno done differently since coming here that he didn't do the year prior in Orlando? And that guy was 4 yrs younger than the next contract Ryno will be. Why would that guy get much more?

People said Tyreke was overpaid after putting up an 18+ PER, again, at a young age. Why would 27/28 year old Tyreke get a huge pay raise? Unless he just blows up to a much higher level. And if that happens, that is a problem I would love to have


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A lot of people thought Ryno was a byproduct of having Dwight Howard drawing so much attention, and the stretch four wasn't the "must have" in demand position that it seems to be today. There were questions as to whether or not Ryan Anderson could duplicate those numbers he had in Orlando. If anything, just proving he's consistently who we think he is will increase his value. C'mon man, you know this! Just look at what you think the value in a trade is for a healthy Ryan Anderson, compared to what he was worth when we got him. Dude is going to get paid if he's healthy and consistently producing the way we expect him to.

People thought Tyreke was overpaid because they thought his numbers were because he was a good player on a bad team and because they thought the "real" Tyreke was the player that struggled after his rookie campaign. Consistently putting up the numbers he put up when given minutes with the Pelicans down the stretch will change people's opinions of him. If he ever does it in the playoffs, as we hope and expect him to do, look out... he's going to have to get paid! He'll only be 27 at the end of his contract. Unless he is disappointing, he's getting Josh Smith money.

Now again, I admit two things:

1. These players could all end up getting less than what I expect because they love each other and want to continue to contend together (Parker, Manu, Timmayy) or they under perform our best expectations for them.

2. The team could decide that having $60m committed to their PG, SG, and two PFs is the right move to make.

...all I'm arguing is that somebody over there should be planning two years out if they want to optimize what this team will be capable of doing during Anthony Davis' second contract. It's improper to use "well, anything could happen over the next 2 years" as an excuse not to plan. And the first decision that has to be made: RYAN ANDERSON

[MichaelMcNamara]

Can we see how these guys actually play together first before we plan for 2017?


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[saintnick926]

Really, this is similar to the Thunder looking at Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Hardin, and deciding they could only afford to keep 3 of these guys.

The timing of when they traded Hardin, what they ultimately got for him, and whether they chose the right three guys is all debatable, but I haven't seen one analyst suggest they could have kept and paid all 4 as their core without going into the tax.

If the cost for Lance exceeds $12m, I wouldn't be surprised if Pacers let him walk. IMO, what they're able to do will be instructive because they have George making $17m, West making $12m, Hibbert making $15m, and Hill making $8m! They're only $6m below the luxury threshold before they even consider signing Lance!

They could have done it with minimal damage. Check this out...http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ib...-james-harden/

[NMThreeMVP]

Can we see how these guys actually play together first before we plan for 2017?


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NO! ...We can't!

...cause it's the off season!
...and we have no draft pick and no salary cap.

[NMThreeMVP]

They could have done it with minimal damage. Check this out...http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ib...-james-harden/

I read that. It's an oversimplification to call it "minimal damage". But yes, they could have done it. I think they the Pelicans could do it. The only point I'm making is that they should be thinking NOW, about whether or not they want to do it. They don't have to be preoccupied by it and consumed by it the way the Thunder seemed to be, but they should be thinking about it and formulating alternative paths to evaluate.

IMO, this is the sort of thing a team like the Spurs would do to make sure they are optimizing their opportunities to remain competitive every year.

In our personal lives, most of us know that anything can happen at any given time to wreck our plans for the future, but it doesn't stop us from planning, making investments, considering options, and committing to things that are further down the road than this week.

[Mythrol]

NO! ...We can't!

...cause it's the off season!
...and we have no draft pick and no salary cap.

Yet.

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[BallSoHard]

I read that. It's an oversimplification to call it "minimal damage". But yes, they could have done it. I think they the Pelicans could do it. The only point I'm making is that they should be thinking NOW, about whether or not they want to do it. They don't have to be preoccupied by it and consumed by it the way the Thunder seemed to be, but they should be thinking about it and formulating alternative paths to evaluate.

IMO, this is the sort of thing a team like the Spurs would do to make sure they are optimizing their opportunities to remain competitive every year.

In our personal lives, most of us know that anything can happen at any given time to wreck our plans for the future, but it doesn't stop us from planning, making investments, considering options, and committing to things that are further down the road than this week.

It also doesn't prevent people from making mistakes in those decisions, case and point 1776 Ronald Wayne sold a 10% stake in Apple products for $800. Today it'd be worth 58 Billion. Selling assets before maturity is dangerous unless someone or something is forcing you to.