Gustav {merged}

[say-what]

Now that the storm is picking up speed and gaining better guidance, we should start getting a good feel on where Gustav is going very soon.

[NYKF Hornet]

What are you guys being told on the radio/news. Out here everyone assumes it's headed straight for NO, but every time I see a new trend ... Gustav looks to be moving west.

[say-what]

So far the local stations are still talking in terms of the storm going to our west somewhere along the NHC track, but of course there's a possibility for the storm to come to NOLA. But no assumption that it's comming here.

Just have to keep an eye on things and they're urging people to play it safe and leave, rather than stay and be sorry.

[Terrace Fan]

Look at it this way, FEMA is here, they never are in the place the storm hits.

[NYKF Hornet]

Look at it this way, FEMA is here, they never are in the place the storm hits.

[DenatureX]

We will know if we are in trouble if Mike Seidel from the weather channel shows up. They always send that guy into the worst places.

[West Coast Hornet]

The track seems to have shifted back to the east a bit. Looking more like Terrebone again, but it's just too early to pick a path. I am listening to WWL online.

[Terrace Fan]

We will know if we are in trouble if Mike Seidel from the weather channel shows up. They always send that guy into the worst places.

I have not seen Al Roker yet, a good sign too?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBv7JAoisn0

[say-what]

The track seems to have shifted back to the east a bit. Looking more like Terrebone again, but it's just too early to pick a path. I am listening to WWL online.

Actually, the 5 o'clock track shifted westward. Earlier it was comming in right around Terrebonne Bay, now it's skirting the coast into the Atchafalaya basin.

[West Coast Hornet]

Actually, the 5 o'clock track shifted westward. Earlier it was comming in right around Terrebonne Bay, now it's skirting the coast into the Atchafalaya basin.

Thanks for the clarification. When I turned in last night, a lot of models had this tracking west anywhere from Lafayette to the TX state line, then it looked like those models pulled back from that, but I did hear Arredondo say exactly what you just said.

Take care all and God Bless. Turn your water mains off if you leave.

[Terrace Fan]

looking more organized now, Please God keep moving west. Dump S.A. for trying to steal our football team yet again!

Amen

[Who Dat033]

Looks like it's going straight for the loop current now. Gonna blow up into a monster. Still no idea when or where it will hit. Best thing now is to just wait and see.

[West Coast Hornet]

Carl Arredondo, among others I imagine, all predict that the storm is almost certain to make landfall in La. It's only a question of what part of the state, but most seem to be betting somewhere between SELA and SWLA, with SCLA being the most likely. Arredondo thought that a Cat 3 storm would bring surge from 9-12' into Barataria Bay. LP would also take water that would push into Lake Maurepas. A straight southern surge might be better for the city, but not good for the Westbank. Prayers.

[say-what]

Nothing quoted below is meant to mean we're in the clear, just that if current trends continue, things will be looking better. Still best to leave and be safe, than stay and be sorry.

2 former NOLA weathermen

quote source: http://www.gulfcoastwx.com/index.cgi...&page=19#63174]

;D
Yeah the models are starting to think like me, TX look out. I'm telling you that ridge is the key and it's going to save NOLA.

Brad,

Your thinking goes along with what my gut instinct has been all along - a stronger ridge. My first posts on Gustav earlier this week talked about the ridge and how I thought the models were too far right. The early cycle 00Z seems to support this. Let's hope the trough doesn't induce anymore poleward movement. But I LOVE what I am seeing out of the 00Z runs. Gosh, I hope that continues...

I'd still be on alert for a possible evac West Bank, Lafourche, Terrebonne and River Parishes. It still may come close enough for trouble or at least a very good scare. It's still early. Let's get it on the other side of Cuba. If the models are still showing west of NOLA, I'll be happy. They appear to be converging on a solution now. Of course, that solution could still change.

John
----------------------------
John Gumm
Meteorologist
WKRC-TV (CBS)
Cincinnati, OH
[email protected]

quote source: http://www.gulfcoastwx.com/index.cgi...&page=19#63179
Houston we have a problem!

Well once again the models are moving West and all along I think this was the destination. I said early I thought TX/LA border but it maybe even further west, now the ridge is the main thing to watch again I think it will be much stronger then the model are even still indicating, but the orientation of the strong high is just as key. Will it be a flat ridge that causes a slower approach to the coast and pushes Gustav west or a northwest and southeast ridge that pushes the storms quicker toward the east and slower to NOLA.

The fly in the ointment is Hanna and the TUTT low to here west the combination of her and low could weaken the high and or change it orientation which again the model not be handling very well. Though that is a very outside chance of that.

Intensity wise this storm at some point will flirt with cat4/5 strength over the southeast gulf and over the loop current, but will weaken as he approaches the northern gulf. I do thing the size of the storm will be big the outflow is going to be enhances for a while and I foresee a big storm which even if he goes west could push some serious water towards the sounds of SELA.

A couple of links I stare out for a while to see what is “actually” going on are these two they really help in forecasting steering currents. But! The size and strength of the storm can determine how much affect those steering currents have on it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/re...s/wg8dlm4.html

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/rams...e_wv_ls_0.html


Hope to post more later.

Take care and in my opinion don’t evacuate west! Go Northeast or east!

Brad
----------------------------
Brad Panovich
Chief Meteorologist
First Warn Storm Team
Carolinas NewsChannel 36
Charlotte, NC

[say-what]

10pm 5-day track has shifted ever so slightly to the west again.

[pharcyder]

Bob Breck has been swearing by this for the past three days. If Breck ends up being right I think we need a Hornetsreport collection to get him a better hair piece. Even when they shift it back to the east he keeps on about it going more west.

[West Coast Hornet]

Interesting stuff.

[mdaniel]

I really don't believe this is going to impact us in a major way. Staying home this time around.

[Who Dat033]

Just when you think that it might go to the west, here we go again. The storm is clearly moving east of the isle of youth. We'll see what the NHC will say at the 10 AM advisory. My own educated guess is that the track will be more east, possibly going directly over the Baton Rouge area. We'll see.

[groundpatty]

shifted west again, but we're still right there in that cone of error...

[Alg_Hornet]

Bob Breck and Carl Arrendondo are NO legends. I trust their words.....

[Terrace Fan]

Be sure to bring your loose items in the yard inside! This includes BBQ-Grill, Lawn chairs,garden hoses and garbage cans. Also check your storm drains before you leave.

Hang in there!

[Harvey]

Bob Breck and Carl Arrendondo are NO legends. I trust their words.....

I disagree.

Signed,
Nash Roberts and his rubber tipped stick pointer

[alon504]

This is growing into a mega monster. NHC says it could be a Cat. 5 before it hits Cuba!

[Who Dat033]

The current projected path has a powerful Cat. 5 with winds gusting to 195 mph staring down the LA coast early monday morning (early means like midnight). On the satellite images, you can clearly see that it's passed east of the Isle of Youth, which is not what the NHC path nor any of the computer models expected. The Isle of Youth just got clipped by the western eye wall, where there are 170 mph wind gusts. The destruction there will be incredible, I'm sure. I am almost certain that the NHC will shift its track to the right, which would not put New Orleans in the eyewall, but on a terrible side of the storm. We could possibly even see the eyewall clip Kenner, which is unlikely, but certainly possible. If you have decided to stay, I would seriously reconsider your decision. It is not worth risking your life. It is now clear that the metro area is going to face serious effects due to Gustav. I STRONGLY suggest that you plan on evacuating.