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https://twitter.com/chicagobulls/sta...hylJ6CjL4Rux_Q
The Lavine situation keeps getting weirder.
Zac probably re-sign or looking to team up on a Super Team... Where Idk... Who he even buddy with in the league? I know he still got love with his Minn guys
The odds are definitely cumulative. And people wonder why we're 49th in math all the time. The Houston example is the easiest because they can't fall below 5. They have a 47.9% chance of getting the 5th pick...since it is 100% probability that they will get any pick at all, this means that their chances of top 4 are 1-0.479 or .521 (52.1%).
Your math is fine on the coin flip example, it's just that you're looking at it the wrong way. If you flip a coin 4 times, each individual flip is 50/50 but the odds that at least 1 of the 4 flips comes up heads is much greater than 50% (93.75% to be exact). That is how the lottery math works...there are 4 number combinations picked (coin flips), what are the odds that the Pels get their number drawn (heads) on at least one of those. Of course unlike a coin flip/heads, if we're picked once we can't get picked again (this is why our odds are slightly different for each pick, they draw the numbers for the first pick first and that removes x number of combinations from the pool so our odds on the 2nd pick increase because there are less possible winners but we still have the same number of combinations).
Zion Williamson could make up to $222.9 million over 5 years on a potential extension with the Pelicans
— NBACentral (@TheNBACentral) April 29, 2022
?The Pelicans can put provisions in his extension that would allow him to earn up to $222.9 million over five years if he earns All-NBA honors next season.?
(Via HoopsHype) pic.twitter.com/5oZK1gfGau
Just to clarify since I was working in this year's upcoming rookie extension numbers in the earlier discussion - just saw this.
Apparently it's gone up (no surprise) since Luka signed his $207m deal, and the absolute max for Zion - and others of his draft class, I assume - is 5yrs/$222.9m. That's a lot of money - averages out to about $44.6m a year.
It goes to show how rapidly contracts are exploding. If Zion had signed that deal in 2016 and was being paid $44.6m in 2017, he would have been the highest paid player in the NBA by far.
Now? When that contract activates, Steph Curry will be on a deal that will see him paid $56m a year through his mid-late thirties. Giannis will be on a deal that pays him $46m a year, culminating in a $51m *player option*. Jokic will be on similar money to Steph. Suddenly $44.6m a year isn't the top paid guy in the NBA, but instead just fairly typical for a superstar. Wild.
Edit: typo correction and some added info.
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 04-29-2022 at 07:15 PM.
Basketball.
For the coin flip as an analogy remember if you hit on one flip then you stop flipping.
Probability of getting heads on the first flip: 50%.
Probability of getting heads on the second flip (after missing the first): 50% (the probability of missing on first) x 50% (the probability of hitting on second) = 25%
Probability of getting heads on the third flip (after missing the first two): 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%
Probability of getting heads on the fourth flip (after missing the first three): 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%
Probability of getting a heads on any of four flips = 50% + 25% + 12.5% + 6.25% = 93.75%
What confuses people is that the NBA has done the math for us in the lottery. For the coin flip analogy they would report the probabilities as (1) 50%, (2) 25%, (3) 12.5% and (4) 6.25% (so you can add them) even though the probability of winning at each step is 50%.
It's funny as far as my memory goes, I don't remember one offseason like this one without a glaring hole in the rotation.
With the current roster plus the return from the injured players, there's no need of a big trade, the team can afford to be patient. The focus should be on finding younger players to learn before replacing Jonas and CJ in the future.
Draft the best player available, come into the training camp with an open mind on the rotation and send the young players out of rotation to g-league to improve and accumulate reps (I would bet on Kira+the first round pick).
This is a big reason why I don't think there will be much change this offseason. I think both Graham and Jaxson start the season as Pelicans. Beyond that, we'll see. If Graham doesn't get much playing time next year, he could potentially be traded away as late as the following offseason to clear $12m from 2023/24 cap space so that the team stays under the cap, or not much beyond it. Jaxson could end up be a sign and trade after his rookie deal, depending on how he develops and if Zion is healthy... as well as depending on who the team drafts this year where it could be another PF (knock on wood... about a 1 in 250 chance they don't get a pick).
The current projected tax threshold in 2023/24 is 144.9m. Currently with guaranteed contracts / team options, if the team has Ingram, CJ, Herb, Trey, Jose, Jonas, Naji, Graham, and Willy on the roster, they're already at 108.4m with 6 open roster spots. The contract for the 8th pick in this year's draft would probably be around 5.8m in 23/24 (obviously this is assuming the 8th pick... the 1st pick would be closer to 11-12m in 23/24). Who knows about Zion, but you're looking at upwards of 35-40m on the books that year assuming it's mostly fully guaranteed rather than with incentives. That's already about $150m, which is over the tax threshold of $144.9m.
Take out Graham and you're back down to $138m with 10 players on the roster. The rest are likely filled up with minimum salary players and you're heading into year 3 of the contracts of Jose, Trey, and Herb. So Jaxson very likely could be gone after next year. And Kira is for sure gone unless he shows big improvement.
And I didn't even put any consideration into a Larry Nance contract extension that I assume he's going to get this summer.
Last edited by bradael; 04-30-2022 at 09:58 AM.
The reason you can't look at it vertically is that it's only truly correct for the 1st pick. As things are at this moment, the horizontal odds of the Pelicans having a 26.3% chance of getting a pick somewhere in the top 4 is correct. The odds on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pick are all speculative at the moment.
If Houston, Orlando, or Detroit has their numbers called for the first pick, the Pelicans now have a 6.98% chance of their numbers being picked for the 2nd spot, not 6.34%. Likewise, if Houston, Orlando, and Detroit all have their numbers picked for #1, 2, and 3, the Pelicans will now have a 10.34% chance at getting the #4 pick, not 7.22. If Cleveland's numbers are picked for #1, then the Pelicans have a 6.03% chance to have their numbers picked for #2.
In fact, under ZERO circumstances, will the Pelicans ACTUALLY have a 6.34% chance of getting the #2 pick while the ping pong balls are being pulled for the #2 pick. It's just the average chance under all circumstances after the results of the 1st ping pong balls dropping.
In short, you can say the Pelicans have a 6.0% chance of the 1st pick, and/or you can say they have a 26.3% chance of a top 4 pick. But you can't really say they have a 6.34% chance of #2, 6.74% chance of #3, or 7.22% chance of the #4 pick without saying the odds before it because #2, 3, and 4 are all reliant on all possible scenarios of the previous pick(s) and won't be the true odds individually as the picks are being made.
Last edited by bradael; 04-30-2022 at 10:37 AM.
Need to channel my analytic brain, since I got a distinction in Business Statistics in Uni, where as most people failed it first go. I had a mate repeated it twice, lol
I understand that probability is pure maths and enjoy explaining the Monty Hall Problem to dem plebs
Last edited by AusPel; 04-30-2022 at 01:20 PM.
Ok, here's my assessment of the roster and ideas for the offseason.
Zion Williamson - Keep him and see how it all works with CJ, BI, JV & Herb in the starting 5. Figure out rotations that keep at least 2 of Zion/BI/CJ/JV on the floor at all times and we shouldn't blow leads when we go to the bench.
Brandon Ingram - Keep it going as is, pretty simple.
CJ McCollum - Run the point guard CJ experiment until the trade deadline, then make an honest assessment on if it actually works (are we closing out games effectively). Get a feel for where his camp is at as far as salary expectations go beyond this contract. If CJ -really- wants to retire with the Pels and we want him to take a FO/Coaching role beyond his retirement, hopefully a 4 year @ ~15mil per can be worked out as his role decreases.
Herb Jones - Keep him and keep him in the starting 5. Hope his 3pt % climbs to league average.
Jonas Valanciunas - Keep him on board, he seems like the type of guy who will be ok with lesser offensive role and just wants to win games. Likely ok with lesser minutes assuming a Nance/Zion lineup works really well.
Larry Nance Jr - I have him slotted in as essentially the 6th man. When Zion was healthy he was usually the first 'star' to take a rest in the 1st, then he'd come back in the finish the 1st. Nance comes in for Zion, Zion comes back in to rest JV. Mostly a 3 man big rotation.
Trey Murphy III - Keep developing him, add a few counter moves to aggressive closeouts on his 3 point looks, work on his defensive capabilities, Takes any minutes Ingram is off the floor and can be used as a small ball 4 when needed.
Jose Alvarado - Keep him as the backup point guard. The team energiser, the defensive pest, and I'm sure he'll work with Fred on getting his shot fine tuned.
Those are the only guys I'd 100% commit to having on the roster on opening night next year.
JV / Nance Jr
Zion / Nance Jr
BI / Murphy III
Herb / CJ
CJ / Jose
My thoughts on the rest:
Jaxson Hayes - I like him and I think if he went in to RFA we wouldn't be scared off by any bids. He's cheap enough still to have fill-in minutes, an 8 to 10 mins role when we're running 10 man rotations, and he is insurance for any of the bigs as he can play either PF or C. But if a really good deal presented itself and Hayes was pursued as part of it or needed for salary matching, then I wouldn't lose sleep.
Devonte Graham - Just doesn't seem to have a role here anymore. Would be interesting to see if a team with cap space would absorb him and take a couple future 2nds from us for their trouble, maybe some team out there thinks they can get more out of him.
Naji Marshall - I like Naji but if we're building a contender he's a 3rd string type guy.
Willie Hernangomez - Seems like a great character guy and is very efficient, wouldn't be surprised if some teams came head hunting for him as their backup C. I'd like to keep him as a 3rd string C
Garrett Temple - Played himself out of the rotation and I can't see a need for him on the roster.
Kira Lewis - I wasn't impressed with much but his speed when he was playing. I suspect with Jose's emergence Kira might be traded and sent to the G-League to develop.
Gary Clark - I didn't mind what I saw from Clark, worth keeping around as a 3rd stringer on the cheap.
So that leads me to a 15 man depth chart looking like:
JV / Hayes / Hernangomez
Zion / Nance Jr / Clark
BI / Murphy III / ??
Herb / ?? / Naji
CJ / Jose / (Kira maybe)
The area the team should look to upgrade/add depth is on the wing. I'd be really interested in a big guard that can create his own and has excellent court vision/decision making. Brogdon is a name often mentioned but I doubt Indy would do it for Graham/Kira/Temple and thats the only deal I'd accept (maybe with a lotto protected future 1st)
I like Fultz despite him not being a great shooter. I love his drive and finish potential and his ability to find open guys. I think he'd be an interesting fit albeit not a 'wing' per se.
Whether the Pels land in the top 4 or stay at #8/#9 there will be a wing player there who can shoot and defend. But the elite playmaker/passer with size seems unlikely.
If I were Griff and couldn't land Brogdon or Fultz without sending out Graham and Temple then I'd stick with drafting best wing available and wait until the deadline to see how the roster fits are really working.
Last edited by Impose; 04-30-2022 at 10:14 PM.
as everyone knows now we are pretty set. But we still aren't a good enough 3-point shooting team to win it all. Sucks, cause these guys do so much well; but that's today's NBA.
Trick is to infuse shooting into our roster without losing much else
for the first time since the Hornets originally got here, we don't have any abhorrible contracts. Graham makes too much and has to go. Period.
all of our young guys are on such good contracts that they must stay, including Naj Marshall.
Jaxson Hayes is the hardest to figure. His upside is insane. He probably won't reach it, but then again he just might. Some team will likely overbid for him... who knows?
Trey Murphy getting more minutes by becoming a better player is the easiest solution to our shooting problem, but who sits for him to get enough minutes
in the draft we could use (in order)
jabari smith- he's like a 6'11" klay thompson. nough said
jaden ivey- upside upside ..gotta go for a super star guard who would be the best athlete on the floor almost every night
chet holmgren- gamble we could afford
shaedon sharpe- his tape screams of athleticism and fundamentals... big gamble but i think he may be great
bennedict mathurin- may be the ideal fit for us
keegan murry- could help any team score
johnny davis- gritty
ochi ogbaji- ready to contribute
aj griffin- scares me cause i think of aaron nasmith when i see him
jaloen duran- we could use rim protector
paolo ranchero- lol i dont want him. he is julius randle, and thats not a bad thing.; we dont need another forward who needs the ball
jonas, devonte, kira and temple and a 1st rounder and a couple of seconds for Gobert?
Gobert, Hayes
Zion, Nance
Ingram, Murphy
Jones, Murphy
Mcollum, alvarado
Last edited by fullcourtpress; 05-01-2022 at 12:25 PM.
I rather give that up for Myles turner atleast he can shoot it
I think we need guards. Sharpe and Maturin be ideal and prob one more good 3-D guard. We set at SF with BI, Trey, and Herb. Good at PF with Zion, Herb, and Nance. Fine at center with Jonas, Hayes (and to me he is a big because he doesn’t have handles or shoot well enough for a PF), and Willie. Which really leaves us with CJ and Jose. I’d love to see 3 more guards with us moving graham, Temple, and Snell.
Lol. Yes ofcourse.
I've been to Perth, Cairns, Brisbane, Gold coast and Tasmania. Still need to go to Adelaide and Darwin.
I really like Tasmania. I think it has the best beaches in Australia, just too cold.
I've also been all over Europe and Canada too.
So yeah I've been outside of Melbourne.
I really think the Pels should see if Phoenix is interested in making a trade for Zion, if the Suns don't win the title.
Ayton + Bridges for Zion + Jonas is the base. Since Zion has been out for a year, add FRP(s) if needed.
This is a total long-shot suggestion but who knows if the Suns will be open to it unless Griffin asks? Perhaps, the Suns are not willing to carry 4 max contracts (Booker, Ayton, CP3, Bridges)... and might be drawn by Zion's potential star power (which I think will not materialize in New Orleans). The Pels also get to use the $17m TPE from trading Steven Adams to make things work, instead of letting it expire.
2022-23 New Orleans Pelicans:
McCollum........... Lewis?, GT Alvarado
Bridges............. Graham?
Herb.................. Murphy
Ingram.............. Kuzma
Ayton................ Hayes
Part 1: Trade with Phoenix.
New Orleans
In: Ayton [$31,582,376], Bridges [$21,000,000] = $52,582,376
Out: Zion [$13,534,817], Jonas [$14,700,000] = $28,234,817
Phoenix
In: Zion [$13,534,817], Jonas [$14,700,000] = $28,234,817
Out: Ayton [$15,791,188], Bridges [$21,000,000] = $36,791,188
Phoenix is sending out $36,791,188 and taking back $28,234,817, so they are okay per the CBA.
New Orleans is sending out $28,234,817 and taking back $52,582,376, so they need to send out an additional $13,751,083... which is where using the TPE comes in.
Part 2: Using the TPE with Washington.
New Orleans
In: Kuzma [$13,000,000, taken into the TPE]
Washington
In: Nance [$9,672,727] + Temple [$5,155,500 filler] + 1 FRP to compensate the Wiz for helping.
Nance probably fits better on Beal's timeline too and along with Porzingis.
Any trade that contains the phrase
Has already failed because he already has materialised that star power both on and off the court. On court, he's already been an all-star, barely missed an all-NBA team last season, is already one of the leagues top stars.Zion's potential star power (which I think will not materialize in New Orleans).
Off the court, he's already got a giant sneaker deal, he's been a top 20 selling jersey in the NBA, and he's already got collabs with giant franchises like 2K and Shonen Jump.
He's been a star with star power since he was about 17.
As for the rest, not a huge fan in general - I'm down on Ayton compared to many (I like him but I don't see him as a legitimate star) and I don't think there's any chance Phoenix trades both him - who is on a great budget deal - and a DPOY finalist on a friendly contract for Zion who is going to need to be paid $45m a year from 2023 onwards. A price which I think is actually higher than both Ayton + Bridges combined cost.
it's tough.... i Like our roster as everyone else does these days..... but we simply cannot win in today's NBA while ranking 27th in 3pt% and 28th in 3pt made
This is not how the TPE works...it allows you to take in a player without sending out matching salary (that's the exception part). This trade wouldn't use the TPE since we're sending out Nance/Temple, it would just be a 3 team deal where we're sending out ~$42MM and taking back ~65MM which, without checking any of the math you have, wouldn't be legal.
I can see us trending upwards in that department with a full season of CJ and Trey getting more significant minutes. If the team manages to draft a long 3&D guy that would be ideal as well. Also Devonte might have a turnaround year and be good from deep. Ingram is certainly a solid 3 point shooter. I like Herb's stroke he just needs reps and his % should drift up a little.
Also we only had a small sample size of Nance, wonder if he can give us 1 a game @ 35%?
I think this offseason is about finding that one, right, piece.
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