Pelicans Centric 2022 Top-10 Prospects

[MichaelMcNamara]

Pels most likely picks are 8 or 9. I would say, with almost 100% certainty that Ivey, Paolo, Smith, Chet, and Sharpe will be gone.

Keegan, like 80% chance he is gone (though when you look at past fallers, it is often older wings (Kawhi, Granger, etc)

I am hoping someone falls in love with Duren, and that should push some people back. But I really think it is Mathurin as the best combo of likely to be there, and guy Pels love.

To me, the biggest debate will be if Pels get 4 and Chet, Smith, and Ivey are gone. Do you go Paolo or Sharpe? I think it would be dishonest for anyone to say they have Sharpe higher in a vacuum, but you can tell yourself they are in the same "tier" and that Sharpe is the bigger need skillset wise and position wise

[Century City]

Pels most likely picks are 8 or 9. I would say, with almost 100% certainty that Ivey, Paolo, Smith, Chet, and Sharpe will be gone.

Keegan, like 80% chance he is gone (though when you look at past fallers, it is often older wings (Kawhi, Granger, etc)

I am hoping someone falls in love with Duren, and that should push some people back. But I really think it is Mathurin as the best combo of likely to be there, and guy Pels love.

To me, the biggest debate will be if Pels get 4 and Chet, Smith, and Ivey are gone. Do you go Paolo or Sharpe? I think it would be dishonest for anyone to say they have Sharpe higher in a vacuum, but you can tell yourself they are in the same "tier" and that Sharpe is the bigger need skillset wise and position wise

I go with Sharpe in that situation just because of fit and because I still live in a world where the Zion situation is fixable. No point in drafting someone who plays Zion or BI's spot in the lineup unless you have a REAL trade lined up and not just one where you get 50 cents on the dollar in return for Zion. Make that asset count, don't just give it away and if you can't make it count then figure out how to re-integrate him into the organization.

In short, Sharpe and Mathurin > Paolo

[Eyquem]

Pels most likely picks are 8 or 9. I would say, with almost 100% certainty that Ivey, Paolo, Smith, Chet, and Sharpe will be gone.

Keegan, like 80% chance he is gone (though when you look at past fallers, it is often older wings (Kawhi, Granger, etc)

I am hoping someone falls in love with Duren, and that should push some people back. But I really think it is Mathurin as the best combo of likely to be there, and guy Pels love.

To me, the biggest debate will be if Pels get 4 and Chet, Smith, and Ivey are gone. Do you go Paolo or Sharpe? I think it would be dishonest for anyone to say they have Sharpe higher in a vacuum, but you can tell yourself they are in the same "tier" and that Sharpe is the bigger need skillset wise and position wise

Slightly off topic, but do you know what the Pelicans' thoughts were on Josh Primo? They obviously saw him while scouting Herb at Alabama, and I wonder if they would've considered him, had Trey not been there. A lot of Spurs' fans now seem to worry he was a reach at #12. I was never a fan of the pick, and had Trey and Moses Moody ahead of him.

[Eyquem]

No huge surprise, but Sharpe is official as of today. I like it because if nothing else, it pushes another good prospect down to 8 or so.

[DroopyDawg]

Jabari Smith is my guy. Long wing (6'10 with 7'1 wingspan) that can shoot and defend. Can also get his own shot and long enough to play some small ball 4/5. Wish he'd last til our pick but I'm sure he won't.

[Eyquem]

Jabari Smith is my guy. Long wing (6'10 with 7'1 wingspan) that can shoot and defend. Can also get his own shot and long enough to play some small ball 4/5. Wish he'd last til our pick but I'm sure he won't.

I like him too and a few of the comps I've seen for him strike me as accurate: Rashard Lewis with defense or a 6'10" Klay Thompson.

[RUFshreve]

We'd have to move into the top 2 to land Jabari. He and Chet are likely the top of our board. Glad Sharpe declared. If we don't move into the top 4, he's the guy I'm gonna be praying falls to us, all the while knowing he won't.

[MichaelMcNamara]

We'd have to move into the top 2 to land Jabari. He and Chet are likely the top of our board. Glad Sharpe declared. If we don't move into the top 4, he's the guy I'm gonna be praying falls to us, all the while knowing he won't.

But at least he pushes another guy down

[MichaelMcNamara]

To me, this series has just reaffirmed my belief that the Pels will be able to score even if they dont have good "shooting"

And outside shooting is the most random variable. It comes and goes even for the best. I always want to know what you can do when your shot is off. When someone else has a mismatch and you arent touching the ball. And thats why I am so high on Dainiels and Sochan. They could go 2 for 3 from the field and have a major impact on the game. They also have the upside (Daniels more than Sochan) to be major offensive factors. Guys like Griffin, and to a lesser extent Mathurin, I am just not sure how they have huge impacts on a game where they make 2 field goals.

[new city champ]

To me, this series has just reaffirmed my belief that the Pels will be able to score even if they dont have good "shooting"

And outside shooting is the most random variable. It comes and goes even for the best. I always want to know what you can do when your shot is off. When someone else has a mismatch and you arent touching the ball. And thats why I am so high on Dainiels and Sochan. They could go 2 for 3 from the field and have a major impact on the game. They also have the upside (Daniels more than Sochan) to be major offensive factors. Guys like Griffin, and to a lesser extent Mathurin, I am just not sure how they have huge impacts on a game where they make 2 field goals.

I love all around guys to, guys who--you know--are good at basketball and make winning plays. But I disagree on the impact of the Pels continually being bottom five in 3-point shooting, percentage, makes, etc...I think it creates a huge slope to climb against top teams, all of whom are in the upper tier of three-point shooting. Many nights it's like we're running a jalopy out there against a Porsche. I know we do other things well to offset this disadvantage (offensive rebounding, steals, etc...), but having to regularly make up for 20-30 point disadvantages from the arc gives us a very steep path to success week-in and week-out. I think the Pels need to prioritize getting more shooting on the squad, particularly from the bench.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I get that, but I think you can get that with less premium resources. This could be your last top 10 pick in a long time (might not be because of Lakers, but it could). You dont use it to fill a need. Look at the best shooters (percentage wise) in the league. They werent acquired using top 10 picks. Throw your MLE resources at that. Use 1sts and expirings for it in trades. Go the Heat route and find and develop some guys. But dont use a top 10 pick. That is a rare commodity. Use that on the type of guy you cant get via all those other methods

[Upper Decker]

Say what you will about Jake Madison, but he's constantly saying that it doesn't matter who we have out there on the floor with Zion - Zion's getting double and triple-teamed. You need 3 point shooters to "make em pay."

I agree with this theory. Zion will create wide open 3s for his teammates. If his teammates can knock down wide open 3s, we will be a damn good team.

[Upper Decker]

I get that, but I think you can get that with less premium resources. This could be your last top 10 pick in a long time (might not be because of Lakers, but it could). You dont use it to fill a need. Look at the best shooters (percentage wise) in the league. They werent acquired using top 10 picks. Throw your MLE resources at that. Use 1sts and expirings for it in trades. Go the Heat route and find and develop some guys. But dont use a top 10 pick. That is a rare commodity. Use that on the type of guy you cant get via all those other methods

Steph was the 7th pick in the draft.
Klay was the 11th pick in the draft.
Buddy Heild was the 6th pick in the draft.
Ray Alllen was the 5th pick in the draft.
Reggie Miller was the 11th pick in the draft.
I could go on.................................

[tdcreator]

I like trades. Maybe we get 3 and Chet and Smith are gone. I’d trade with OKC if possible and get 5 and 12. Then we can get whoever falls to 5 between Sharpe, Maturin, and Murray then at 12 grab the Dieng guy. Maybe we could even get OKC to take Graham at the same time. Win win win.

[ragincaucasian]

Tuesday, May 17
2022 NBA Draft Lottery


Less than a month

[new city champ]

I get that, but I think you can get that with less premium resources. This could be your last top 10 pick in a long time (might not be because of Lakers, but it could). You dont use it to fill a need. Look at the best shooters (percentage wise) in the league. They werent acquired using top 10 picks. Throw your MLE resources at that. Use 1sts and expirings for it in trades. Go the Heat route and find and develop some guys. But dont use a top 10 pick. That is a rare commodity. Use that on the type of guy you cant get via all those other methods

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not advocating taking some catch-and-shoot 3-point specialist with a top-10 pick just to address our shooting problems. But would I factor in a prospect's 3-point shooting potential when deciding among a pool of prospects? I would . So in this draft that might move me more toward prospects like Griffin, Mauthrin or Sharpe rather than guys like Davis or Daniels (assuming we stay around 8-10). It might even cause me to opt for a higher potential shooter than a player like Sochan, whose tape I really like and who I can see giving the Pels a needed boost on defending bigs and protecting the rim. Or, to give an actual example, I liked the idea of taking Duarte last year if we stayed at 10 even though that was seen as high for him and he was an older prospect. Why? I could see a needed role for him on the Pels (shooting) + he could add value as a long wing defender with size, though he was not projected to become an All NBA-kind of talent.

So I'm more inclined than you to draft to a "need" though I'd call that balancing a roster or having a vision for a player. I think our starting 5 (assuming Zion sticks) is going to be pretty set. And that five (CJ, Herb, BI, Zion, Jonas) is not going to be a top-10 shooting group. I think they'll score, but on some nights we'll still struggle to keep up with elite 3-pointing shooting teams. So if I can draft a prospect with upside who I can reasonably project to pair with Trey to give us some shooting punch off the bench that we won't be getting from our starting line up, I'll happily factor that in. Not to the exclusion of all other considerations, but it's a metric I'll absolutely give weight to.

In the past we've debated my aversion to focusing too much on hunting super stars. I've long preferred building balanced rosters, where guys know their roles, have high IQ and possess a high-level NBA skill even if they aren't great all around talents. I think Memphis is in the process of proving that formula can produce a legitimate challenger. I know they did most of that with later picks not top-10 selections, but in the end the process is less important than the result. It's all something of a crap shoot. You know it's entirely possible that Davis will turn out to be a great shooter or that Jaden Ivey will bust out. Nobody knows nothing for sure. But I'd rather focus on acquiring demonstrable skill sets that we can mesh together into a cohesive roster than just going pure BPA evaluation. I'm not talking reaching for short term need at the top of draft, but thinking of how the whole roster fits together when considering roughly equivalent prospects.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Here's the issue with that philosophy -- the 2nd contract.

Outside of Marcus Smart, every top 10 pick who was re-signed by their team made between 20 mil and the max on their second contract. If they werent worth that, one way or another they were off the team. And often, they were off the team soon after they signed that 2nd contract because they werent worth that money (see: Otto Porter types)

Their initial contracts are just so expensive and their perceived upside so high (because they were a top 10 pick), that when it comes time for their 2nd deal, they get way overpaid based on potential. Look at Atlanta's upcoming decision with De'Andre Hunter, for example. Fine player, has had some good flashes. But his agent is asking for 4/100 now. Sure, maybe they will sign 4/85 or 4/90, but he will have to double his output to play up to that.

The idea of taking a Duarte, or equivalent, and getting known solid production is nice in theory. You get value for all of the rookie contract but then you eventually come to a cross road where you either gotta overpay them, let them walk or trade them for less than the asset you used to use them (see: Cam Reddish)

If you just wanna take a solid guy who you know will produce, trade down. Do what you do with Murphy, because as crazy as it seems logically, the same exact player would get a smaller 2nd contract if you took him 16th than 8th

[Impose]

Mobile, defensive, long, built, big. Was really high in mocks to start the college season and has drifted down a bit. But for me (someone who thinks trade Zion/Jonas for Bam Adebayo) I'm a little bit interested to see what this guy could turn in to by the time Jonas expires.

[Eman5805]

I'm a meathead. A simple man. And a dude taller than 6'9" who likes to lift and can jump out the gym. I can't help but like him.

I mean...I'd literally take him right now instead of Hayes. I don't know anything Hayes gives us that Duren couldn't replicate...without also being a butthead. I guess Duren isn't as open field fast. But then, Hayes might be the fastest big to play in the NBA since The Admiral.

[pelicanchamp]

I want Chet. He will be incredible. He needs to put on weight but he?s very strong even with his skinny body. I think he will be a huge star.


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[Pelicanidae]

I want Chet. He will be incredible. He needs to put on weight but he?s very strong even with his skinny body. I think he will be a huge star.


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I agree that CHet is the best prospect in the draft but I also just don't think there's any way we get him unless the Lakers pick jumps up to #1. Not impossible, but certainly not likely.

Chet is the best prospect though imo. Not too concerned about his weight because frankly, you don't really want to think of him as a big bruising paint guy anyway despite him being 7 foot and a shotblocker. Relatively few teams have high quality bruiser bigs anymore (Jokic, Embiid are the two major examples of guys who do fit that mold, but nobody can defend them anyway even if they weigh 250lbs) for him to even struggle against, and despite his thin frame he fared well in college when matched up against big bruisers. For example, when he was against Duren - another lottery level talent who is absolutely an NBA quality player, and is already jacked beyond belief - Chet went 4/4 in the paint, had 9 rebounds and 4 blocks, and Duren only shot 3/11 from the floor with 7 rebounds and 1 block. It's not like Duren just totally bowled him over despite literally weighing nearly 50lbs more.


Chet's the best rim protecting prospect to come out of the college system since AD, and while his style of play is very different, that's a good thing. Chet is also already a very promising passer and shooter (39% from 3 on over 100 attempts, fairly high volume for a 7 footer in college; 3.3 per game) and it's not like he can't score at the rim either. Sure, he's not a dominating paint force on offense but he still shot 73% from 2, and frankly the fit of an excellent shooting/rim protecting big who doesn't need to be crowding the paint directly on offense sounds like it would match really well alongside Zion.

And he's a reasonable FT shooter for a big, 72%. Not great, sure, but for a 7 footer it's not bad at all and his shooting and touch at the rim gives hope that it could get even better.

If you luck into the #1 pick, draft Chet.

[Eman5805]

I can’t think the one aspect that’s changed is an aversion to a big market. Clearly Zion’s people want control. You aren’t gone. Get that with the crwzy musician in New York running things. Going for a smaller but still good team makes more sense if they feel they can choose. Correct me if I’m wrong…

[As I See It]

If you luck into the #1 pick, draft Chet.

ALAS (or is it AT LAST), we agree!!

[Impose]

Personally, I don't like Chet. Kid has skills but he'll get bullied and his body will break down. Won't be shocked if he slips in the draft outside the top 5.

[Impose]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1518344372865089536
This is the guy if Griff can move up to get someone.