Originally Posted by
MichaelMcNamara
So, let me lay out EXACTLY what I think of Zion, including what I think he will most likely grow into, and tell me where I am too harsh, relative to reality:
- Best interior scorer in the league off the dribble and face up post ups
- Above average vision
- Great interior passer and above average same side passer. Below average cross court
- Should be a 72-78% FT shooter, career. Would be surprised if he gets over that but I'd also be surprised if he dips back down a la Giannis or Westbrook after seeming to improve
- In final few minutes, can score in isolation if given space. If you set a screen for him, he will get trapped and turn it over more often than he will make something good happen
- Long term, the hope is he can become Westbrook or Jimmy late. Not a big threat to pull up from 3, but could drain a 16 footer or just take it to the hole/get to the line
- On defense, the lateral movement, relative to other perimeter defenders is horrific. An F. Maybe it gets up to a C, but I cant ever see him staying in front of typical 1's-3's. Slower 3's and power 3's, maybe. Ideally, he guards stretch 4's who cant put the ball on the deck after a hard close and when put in pick and rolls, he drops instead of hedging or trapping. I believe he will always be a liability on that end, similar to say Carmelo.
- The real tipping point is defensive rebounding. If he is gonna be a below avg defender, he could at least make a contribution on that end by rebounding and then pushing the ball. My guess is that he never makes it a priority, and tops out around 5.5-6 def rebs a game. People gave him excuses because Adams and Hart got boards, but when they went up, his numbers didnt really change. Despite all the athletic talent in the world and a body made for boxing out, he will rebound more like a good wing than a good big.
- All of this makes a fantastic player. A guy who probably averages 30-9-6 a couple times in his career. But how do you build around him in 2021? You have to have rim protection - its a must, and he wont give it to you. But most rim protectors will also clog the lane on the other end. Now, if he exceeds my expectations on levels 2 and 3, and becomes more like Kawhi off the bounce, then that is totally fine. But if not, you are gonna have a hard time getting buckets in the 2020s in late rounds. AD and Lebron's Lakers didnt have great spacing, but they won because that team had tremendous D because of those guys. Zion doesnt bring that, and I dont think ever will. And when I look at title winning teams, their best guys can usually give you clutch buckets on one end and lock down on the other. And if they cant, they give you tremendous spacing because of their shooting (Curry). Outside of scoring in the paint, what will Zion do at a TOP TIER level? Not good. Not above average. Top tier, elite? To me, he will either have to become an elite defender, an elite rebounder, an elite 2nd and 3rd level scorer, or an elite playmaker for others. If one of those 4 things doesnt happen, he cant be a #1 on a true contender.
Now......what of that isnt fair?