April 11th - New Orleans Pelicans vs Cleveland Cavaliers - 23-29

[Pelicanidae]

Lonzo Ball remains out for tomorrow's game vs. Cleveland

Injury report: https://t.co/89B5r8pna2@SmoothieKing | #Pelicans pic.twitter.com/iqSvglPCdX

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) April 10, 2021

As Kira, Zion, and Ingram all returned from their injuries things appear to be somewhat clearing up, but we still have a few guys dealing with war-wounds:

- NAW (out)
- Lonzo (out)
- Hart (out)

As for the Cavaliers, in their last game they were missing Larry Nance Jr, Jarrett Allen, and Dylan Windler. It remains to be seen how many of those guys will still be out; further updates will be added to the thread if/when they're made available.

The Cavaliers, with a record of 19-33, are one of the teams who are worse off in the standings than we are and of course they're doing that playing an Eastern schedule. They have the second worst offense in the NBA and still fall bottom ten in defense. They are 2-6 over their last 8, including losses to Toronto and Sacramento, and if you look back until All-Star break they've lost to ATL, us, and the Spurs during that period too - they're not great. Bottom 10 in points, rebounds, and assists per game, a huge part of their offensive struggles relates not only to a lack of primary playmaking but also to a lack of shooting.

Cleveland are the 2nd worst 3pt shooting team in the league. They're 30th in attempts, 30th in makes, and 29th in percentage (33.7% as a team). They are also bottom 10 in overall FG%. Only three players on their roster are hitting league average on TS% (Allen, Nance, Sexton) and there's a chance that two of those figures will miss this game.

Last time we played Cleveland we won 116-82, in a night that had Ingram put up 28/7 on 11/14 shooting, and saw Zion put up 23/6 in 17 minutes on 56% shooting. That was a game that Jarrett Allen and Nance both played in. If either of them, or both, are out tonight, we should score 65 in the paint. It should be a non-stop waltz to the rim.

Let's see how that shakes out, or if the shorthanded Cavs blindside us.

[Taker597]

https://twitter.com/WillGuillory/sta...409452545?s=20

[Pelicanidae]

https://twitter.com/WillGuillory/sta...409452545?s=20

SVG on Point Zion:

"We want to get him more experience with that stuff going forward because I think that's where his future is in this game. I really do."

— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) April 10, 2021

And I agree.

He has the vision and the handle is solid (though still developing fully) to be a point forward. We know that an elite point forward is one of the most valuable player types in the NBA: Lebron and Luka show that regularly, and in NBA history guys like Magic personified it. If he has that in him - which I think he does - then that's a must have player.

He's averaging 4.7 assists per game over his last 10 outings, and 4.4 over the last 20. There's no reason he can't be a 28/8/6 type guy in the future, and doing that on 65%TS or better every year (he's there now, and there's no reason to suspect he will decline in efficiency for at least some years) is an MVP candidate. Especially if the defense continues improving.

Special talent.

[ramsters60]

SVG on Point Zion:

"We want to get him more experience with that stuff going forward because I think that's where his future is in this game. I really do."

— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) April 10, 2021

And I agree.

He has the vision and the handle is solid (though still developing fully) to be a point forward. We know that an elite point forward is one of the most valuable player types in the NBA: Lebron and Luka show that regularly, and in NBA history guys like Magic personified it. If he has that in him - which I think he does - then that's a must have player.

He's averaging 4.7 assists per game over his last 10 outings, and 4.4 over the last 20. There's no reason he can't be a 28/8/6 type guy in the future, and doing that on 65%TS or better every year (he's there now, and there's no reason to suspect he will decline in efficiency for at least some years) is an MVP candidate. Especially if the defense continues improving.

Special talent.

I feel another factor in this scenario, and one that makes me a bit giddy, is whether he will actually be rewarded with the foul shots that he is surely going to earn.... it looks like things are headed in a more favorable direction lately, but quite a few are still not called and many of them are extremely obvious....you might knock the ball free on occasion when he drives, but the for the most part its either foul him or he scores....and many times its both....

[Pelicanidae]

I feel another factor in this scenario, and one that makes me a bit giddy, is whether he will actually be rewarded with the foul shots that he is surely going to earn.... it looks like things are headed in a more favorable direction lately, but quite a few are still not called and many of them are extremely obvious....you might knock the ball free on occasion when he drives, but the for the most part its either foul him or he scores....and many times its both....

Sort of related to that, part of what excites me about Zion is that despite not having a huge amount of experience yet as a Point, he's not really been particularly turnover prone.

I know there have been games here or there, but over those last 20 games in which he's been averaging 4.7apg, he's only averaged about 2.4 turnovers per game. While that's a touch high, it's not at all horrible: of all players in the NBA averaging at least 4.7apg this season, only 21/53 of them average fewer than 2.4 turnovers. He's solidly middle of the pack in terms of turnover volume for guys averaging at least that number of assists, which is pretty solid! Obvious room to improve, which is good, but it's not like he's been super bad for it.

[13 - 3]

https://twitter.com/WillGuillory/sta...409452545?s=20

Tell that to the gm who doesn’t know what spacing is

— woo (@slimeeefoe) April 10, 2021

[Pelicanidae]

Tell that to the gm who doesn’t know what spacing is

— woo (@slimeeefoe) April 10, 2021

It's wild how we can have a top 8 offense all season and be the number 1 offense for extended periods of time and people are still getting twisted into knots about spacing.

Yes, in the long run we will need some more spacing, particularly off the bench where we currently have nobody who can really shoot reliably. But of all of the problems this team has, the spacing is far down the list. The offense, spacing or no, is not the problem

[Taker597]

Tell that to the gm who doesn’t know what spacing is

— woo (@slimeeefoe) April 10, 2021

I don't know if I got this right. MM would probably know more than the tiny tidbit, because I only know a few people that work in the organization in IT, PT, and etc. So, it's a lot of second ear assumptions.

Langdon, Our GM, is really more in charge of drafting, scouting(Collegiate and Pro) , and managing personal. Our President Of Operations, David Whiffin, is the one of charge of FA acquisition and such..

I have coveted Langdon a lot, because his scouting resume is pretty consistent. He definitely should be groomed to be promoted down the line.

[6warddude]

so the cavs are short handed....so i guess we play down to our competition today....

[Taker597]

It's wild how we can have a top 8 offense all season and be the number 1 offense for extended periods of time and people are still getting twisted into knots about spacing.

Yes, in the long run we will need some more spacing, particularly off the bench where we currently have nobody who can really shoot reliably. But of all of the problems this team has, the spacing is far down the list. The offense, spacing or no, is not the problem

I think the really big black eye on our offense isn't even spacing. For a top 10 offense, is the droughts. I remember when we was top 5 offense and I did some research on our droughts. We accumulated like +1.3 drought per game of most teams in the top 10 and also drought time was like a full minute longer too.

Also, I view drought as a going scoreless for 2 minutes or longer. Our deficit in drought was super ugly as well.

[Pelicanidae]

I think the really big black eye on our offense isn't even spacing. For a top 10 offense, is the droughts. I remember when we was top 5 offense and I did some research on our droughts. We accumulated like +1.3 drought per game of most teams in the top 10 and also drought time was like a full minute longer too.

Also, I view drought as a going scoreless for 2 minutes or longer. Our deficit in drought was super ugly as well.

There are definitely issues with the offense, and the occasional droughts are one of them, but if you had to put one central thing as the priority on the team that is 'the' problem, the offense doesn't even factor into the conversation.

It's the defense, and we all know it, and that's what's been the problem basically all year. And the defensive issues stem yes, partly, from the lack of training camp and whatnot and for early season issues with scheme but at the heart of the problem - and the reason we've been bad on defense even as the scheme has changed - is that we just flat out do not have a defensively talented roster.

Look at our top 8 minutes getters this season:

- Brandon Ingram: horrible defender, has been legitimately a bottom 50 defensive player in the league this year.
- Zion Williamson: Has improved somewhat from the start of the season, but still is a clear negative on defense.
- Steven Adams: a good defender but not a super elite one, and can't really cover for anything
- Lonzo: defensively fine most of the time off-ball, but can't defend on-ball reliable because he can't navigate screens
- Bledsoe: Has been bad this year, just clear lack of effort for huge spans of time
- Hart: Hustles off-ball, but gets burned 1v1 regularly and also cannot navigate screens
- NAW: Great at deflections but is a bit foul prone and falls asleep off-ball still
- Jax: Another guy who has improved, especially recently, but is just still too thin to defend the real centers and again, still has major lapses

That's not going to be a good defensive team. With some of these guys you expect some improvement over time: Zion, Jax, NAW, you expect to continue growing defensively, and that internal improvement is a reasonable bet. But that's the future. It may not be a long term problem, depending on who in specific we're talking about, but this roster is just abominable defensively and the players suck at defense, that's the problem. You can get more fancy about it if you want and discuss specifics but at the end of the day that's the issue.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think the really big black eye on our offense isn't even spacing. For a top 10 offense, is the droughts. I remember when we was top 5 offense and I did some research on our droughts. We accumulated like +1.3 drought per game of most teams in the top 10 and also drought time was like a full minute longer too.

Also, I view drought as a going scoreless for 2 minutes or longer. Our deficit in drought was super ugly as well.

I dont believe the offense is real - in that it does not match its raw numbers. No offense that can really do that is so awful in the clutch. As historically good as it is in the first 42 minutes, it is historically bad in the final 6 - and has been so for two years, through two different coaches.

And when you project forwards to high level games against high level teams, I think those defenses look more like the final 6 minutes than the first 42. It is clear to me that the NBA is a casual pick up game for 42 minutes and then guys really lock in and stick to defensive principles in the final 6. And we are awful in those minutes. The overall numbers are just great because 7/8ths of the game is a pickup game and the other 1/8th doesnt weigh the overall numbers down enough to show the truth (that this isnt really a great offensive team).

[As I See It]

I dont believe the offense is real - in that it does not match its raw numbers. No offense that can really do that is so awful in the clutch. As historically good as it is in the first 42 minutes, it is historically bad in the final 6 - and has been so for two years, through two different coaches.

And when you project forwards to high level games against high level teams, I think those defenses look more like the final 6 minutes than the first 42. It is clear to me that the NBA is a casual pick up game for 42 minutes and then guys really lock in and stick to defensive principles in the final 6. And we are awful in those minutes. The overall numbers are just great because 7/8ths of the game is a pickup game and the other 1/8th doesnt weigh the overall numbers down enough to show the truth (that this isnt really a great offensive team).

A very astute observation here; I totally agree. Our offense is a false positive.

[Taker597]

There are definitely issues with the offense, and the occasional droughts are one of them, but if you had to put one central thing as the priority on the team that is 'the' problem, the offense doesn't even factor into the conversation.

It's the defense, and we all know it, and that's what's been the problem basically all year. And the defensive issues stem yes, partly, from the lack of training camp and whatnot and for early season issues with scheme but at the heart of the problem - and the reason we've been bad on defense even as the scheme has changed - is that we just flat out do not have a defensively talented roster.

Look at our top 8 minutes getters this season:

- Brandon Ingram: horrible defender, has been legitimately a bottom 50 defensive player in the league this year.
- Zion Williamson: Has improved somewhat from the start of the season, but still is a clear negative on defense.
- Steven Adams: a good defender but not a super elite one, and can't really cover for anything
- Lonzo: defensively fine most of the time off-ball, but can't defend on-ball reliable because he can't navigate screens
- Bledsoe: Has been bad this year, just clear lack of effort for huge spans of time
- Hart: Hustles off-ball, but gets burned 1v1 regularly and also cannot navigate screens
- NAW: Great at deflections but is a bit foul prone and falls asleep off-ball still
- Jax: Another guy who has improved, especially recently, but is just still too thin to defend the real centers and again, still has major lapses

That's not going to be a good defensive team. With some of these guys you expect some improvement over time: Zion, Jax, NAW, you expect to continue growing defensively, and that internal improvement is a reasonable bet. But that's the future. It may not be a long term problem, depending on who in specific we're talking about, but this roster is just abominable defensively and the players suck at defense, that's the problem. You can get more fancy about it if you want and discuss specifics but at the end of the day that's the issue.

Yeah, I been pretty emphatic that our scoring potential basically closed to topped out. I like more consistent scoring, but we definitely have a huge need for more utility 2 way players. We do need another Elite player to be a championship contender.

I know the Nets laugh at this logic, because they keep trying to get as many elite offensive weapons. We aren't getting a James Harden or getting an Aldridge on buyouts. So, the notion that we need more scoring always rubbed me wrong.

Luckily, Zion prime is gonna be after this Nets team superteam runs its course. Super team culture kind of scares me, because I don't how we are gonna compete against that.

[Taker597]

I dont believe the offense is real - in that it does not match its raw numbers. No offense that can really do that is so awful in the clutch. As historically good as it is in the first 42 minutes, it is historically bad in the final 6 - and has been so for two years, through two different coaches.

And when you project forwards to high level games against high level teams, I think those defenses look more like the final 6 minutes than the first 42. It is clear to me that the NBA is a casual pick up game for 42 minutes and then guys really lock in and stick to defensive principles in the final 6. And we are awful in those minutes. The overall numbers are just great because 7/8ths of the game is a pickup game and the other 1/8th doesnt weigh the overall numbers down enough to show the truth (that this isnt really a great offensive team).

This is actually very sound logic. I didn't think of that way. It's a lot of paper stats with a lot strange aberrations with the clutch and drought issues.

[Pelicanidae]

Yeah, I been pretty emphatic that our scoring potential basically closed to topped out. I like more consistent scoring, but we definitely have a huge need for more utility 2 way players. We do need another Elite player to be a championship contender.

I know the Nets laugh at this logic, because they keep trying to get as many elite offensive weapons. We aren't getting a James Harden or getting an Aldridge on buyouts. So, the notion that we need more scoring always rubbed me wrong.

Luckily, Zion prime is gonna be after this Nets team superteam runs its course. Super team culture kind of scares me, because I don't how we are gonna compete against that.

I do agree somewhat as well with the other discussion going on with the thread about whether our offense is 'real' or not. It's definitely the case that we're a bit of a paper tiger right now: regular season wonder that, if we make the playoffs, will suddenly find things a lot more difficult.

That's not my major concern right now though, as the ways to solve it are being worked on (multiple competent ball-handlers and creators, for example, is something that's becoming more of a thing as Kira and NAW are introduced into real minutes) but yeah, short-term that's an issue. Long term, it's not.

The defense, however, is what needs hugely reworking and we haven't really touched that yet. Changes need to be made in terms of personnel, not just development imo.

[PolishFan]

This is some very high quality discussion here

[MichaelMcNamara]

The Pels have definitely found something in Zion as a primary creator - but I see him more as Kawhi than CP3 or Lebron in clutch moments with defenses locked in. If you get space in an iso, attack and shoot or kick. But when the defense takes away those opportunities, you need to have another creator - and that aint Ingram IMO. Ingram is still more of a finisher and doesnt have a quick attack move when the ball gets swung. A guard who can get past his man, who can attack closeouts, and who can score from all 3 levels has to be added or developed. Kira has a shot to become that guy if his 3 ball develops. He already has shown some mid range and floater skills. His quickness should keep defenders from being right up on him, so developing a pull up off the dribble three would be huge. But for now, I just dont think we have the personnel. One thing I do know, however, if that they need to stop with the screens for Zion late and instead let him go iso, or ideally, catch the ball on the move

[AusPel]

Ingram needs to go too unless he can fully embrace the number 2 role and develop a quicker 1st step

Watching Lou Williams tonight, he'd actually be a really good fit. Has a quick first step and needs no time to get his shot up (and hit it)

Ingram v Denver a few weeks ago looked amazing, but that seems to have been an outlier

[As I See It]

I guess this could help our (ahem) playoff push....

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-rumors-...190004576.html

[MichaelMcNamara]

Ingram needs to go too unless he can fully embrace the number 2 role and develop a quicker 1st step

Watching Lou Williams tonight, he'd actually be a really good fit. Has a quick first step and needs no time to get his shot up (and hit it)

Ingram v Denver a few weeks ago looked amazing, but that seems to have been an outlier

Zion and Ingram looked amazing against Denver and Dallas late because they got a slow footed big in the pick and roll and torched them. Why BI has had some moments against Utah too. Embiid also took some AWFUL angles the other night. Why he came all the way out to defend Adams on that Zion dunk that sealed it is beyond me.

But most teams wont close with slow footed bigs and thats when we really struggle. As for BI, I am willing to give him another year or so. I have zero doubt that the offense we install in training camp will center around Zion and have BI playing off him. Gotta see how he embraces that. But there are very few examples of a young player who reaches an All Star level who steps aside while he is still in his pre-prime/prime for an even younger guy. The only one kind of in the league now is Porzingas, and I would have loved to see if he would have done it if Luka was drafted by New York, as opposed to Luka already being established and Dallas trading for KP.

Its one thing for a Booker to augment his game for a CP3. But doing it for a guy younger than you -- I havent seen that much in NBA history

[Pelicanidae]

Ingram needs to go too unless he can fully embrace the number 2 role and develop a quicker 1st step

Watching Lou Williams tonight, he'd actually be a really good fit. Has a quick first step and needs no time to get his shot up (and hit it)

Ingram v Denver a few weeks ago looked amazing, but that seems to have been an outlier

I disagree with Lou Will praise here. He definitely has value in some contexts but this team does not need yet another terrible defensive old guy.

[msusousaphone]

Defense is the area of the game that benefits the most from experience and continuity. Especially the last 6 min of the game when things are in the crunch. It spells disaster for this season but is really progressing nicely as far as future plans are concerned.

BI does have spells where the ball just stops offensively when he's in there. It's like, when Zion is the focul point, the ball movement is humming. When BI is the focal point, it slows down so much. But that, again, is one of the later things to develop so IMO it is going to sink us for this season but will get fixed as time goes on.

[AusPel]

I disagree with Lou Will praise here. He definitely has value in some contexts but this team does not need yet another terrible defensive old guy.

He'd be a nice vet off the bench is all I'm saying

[Pelicanidae]

He'd be a nice vet off the bench is all I'm saying

For sure, and all I'm saying is that I don't think he'd fit well on the team. He provides only more offense, which again, isn't the problem for us right now, and would have to take minutes from one of Kira or NAW which is bad process long term. And he's also old.