2021 NBA Draft Discussion

[Pelicanidae]

You basically just described Kawhi Leonard or Draymond Green. Which means he's probably just the kind of player who needs to go to an already really good team so he isn't forced to do things he's not ready to do.

I don't really think that the Kawhi comparison is apt (Barnes is barely better from 2 than Kawhi was despite being much larger than Kawhi was/is, and Kawhi shot about 20% better from the line which was encouraging for predictions of his shot long term) but I do agree that Barnes needs to go somewhere that can maximise his strengths and minimise his weaknesses while simultaneously improving those weaknesses over time.

My concern is that we aren't that team. Barnes' best skill on offense, by a country mile, is his passing and I feel like unless his shooting improves drastically, by at least 10% from 3 for example immediately, he would essentially be the Big Version of rookie Lonzo. Which is a player which can have some value via connective passing and defense, but need I remind anyone how atrocious Lonzo was on offense before he could shoot? Hell, he can shoot now and he's still not great.

If the Pels draft Barnes they're essentially betting that they can do the magic shooting improvement on yet another guy, and in this case potentially starting from the worst beginning point of anyone they've done it to thus far. Maybe they can but that's a huge bet when you're making a top 10 pick and Franz Wagner is right there.

[pelafanatic]

I feel like Kispert is one of those guys who I find it nearly impossible to see becoming a superstar (hence him being locked out of the top 5 completely) but who I also see as being almost certainly a really really good NBA player. Sort of guy who is guaranteed a 10 year career producing high value as a roleplayer. Not just your generic roleplayer that you can pick up for the min any given year either, I mean like a star roleplayer, if that makes sense - prime Covington style value.

All aboard the Kispert train. Go get the elite skill that is hardest to come by in the NBA. He'll walk into the league as a top 10 shooter from deep, and he won't kill you defensively. He's also been playing this exact role on the best team in the country for four straight years.

The guy has basically had a 55-45-90 season this year, and still gives you about 5 rebounds per game. You can immediately slide him into any lineup and you know exactly what he's going to give you, and I think there's still some untapped potential there attacking close outs based off his coordination and feel.

[pelafanatic]

Moody is the dream with Kispert as a close second.

I think Jalen Johnson could play himself into contention with elite shooting workouts based off of what we've targeted recently. It really seems like Griff wants a 3/4 who can knock down an open jumper and create some on ball.

[Silverfoxx]

I don't really think that the Kawhi comparison is apt (Barnes is barely better from 2 than Kawhi was despite being much larger than Kawhi was/is, and Kawhi shot about 20% better from the line which was encouraging for predictions of his shot long term) but I do agree that Barnes needs to go somewhere that can maximise his strengths and minimise his weaknesses while simultaneously improving those weaknesses over time.

My concern is that we aren't that team. Barnes' best skill on offense, by a country mile, is his passing and I feel like unless his shooting improves drastically, by at least 10% from 3 for example immediately, he would essentially be the Big Version of rookie Lonzo. Which is a player which can have some value via connective passing and defense, but need I remind anyone how atrocious Lonzo was on offense before he could shoot? Hell, he can shoot now and he's still not great.

If the Pels draft Barnes they're essentially betting that they can do the magic shooting improvement on yet another guy, and in this case potentially starting from the worst beginning point of anyone they've done it to thus far. Maybe they can but that's a huge bet when you're making a top 10 pick and Franz Wagner is right there.

Player comparison floor and ceiling for Franz Wagner?

[Silverfoxx]

Moody is the dream with Kispert as a close second.

I think Jalen Johnson could play himself into contention with elite shooting workouts based off of what we've targeted recently. It really seems like Griff wants a 3/4 who can knock down an open jumper and create some on ball.

Terrified of his personality though. Screams a me guy going back to high school. Said the same thing about LaMelo so I probably won't make the same mistake here lol.

[Pelicanidae]

Player comparison floor and ceiling for Franz Wagner?

Really hard to say, and I don't like player comps in general.

Some comps I've seen other people use are "half Joe Ingles and half Tayshaun Prince" and "peak Batum" and "a bit like Kukoc".

In reality I have problems with all of those comparisons for various reasons but I guess it gives some idea of where the conversation is roughly.

[fullcourtpress]

Tre Mann in the 2nd (nbadraft.net suggest) would be a sincere steal and a half. He will make it in the 1st but I’d like to have him

[Silverfoxx]

Really hard to say, and I don't like player comps in general.

Some comps I've seen other people use are "half Joe Ingles and half Tayshaun Prince" and "peak Batum" and "a bit like Kukoc".

In reality I have problems with all of those comparisons for various reasons but I guess it gives some idea of where the conversation is roughly.

Why don't you like player comparisons? I find them to be pretty fun but I can understand why some won't enjoy them

[Pelicanidae]

Why don't you like player comparisons? I find them to be pretty fun but I can understand why some won't enjoy them

They can be fun but they're really not that accurate and sometimes people get them too deep into their heads.

Like when Zion was coming out of the draft and everyone was racing to try and come up with a comparison and a lot of people settled on Charles Barkley, but he's not actually thatmuch like Barkley. They're a similar physical frame, except Zion's more sculpted, but in reality Zion plays ball in quite a different way.

Also, you sometimes run the risk of people doing a comparison based on nothing but highlight clips and ignorance, which is why you often end up with people like Reggie Miller (I think it was Miller) claiming that Rui Hachimura is the next Kawhi Leonard, which is pure insanity.

[hornetzplaya]

I dunno if y'all are watching this Gonzaga v UCLA game.... But there's so much draft potential on this team..... Suggs is gonna be a STAR

[luckyman]

I'd give up anything not named Zion/BI/Kira to move up to take Suggs. Assuming he doesn't go #1 or #2.

Trust me his talents are being throttled down in college ball. It'll blossom in the NBA.

[Tpstr]

I dunno if y'all are watching this Gonzaga v UCLA game.... But there's so much draft potential on this team..... Suggs is gonna be a STAR

Heck of a shot he made

[Taker597]

I'd give up anything not named Zion/BI/Kira to move up to take Suggs. Assuming he doesn't go #1 or #2.

Trust me his talents are being throttled down in college ball. It'll blossom in the NBA.

I see Suggs and Green could find their way in the top 3 depending on the teams there.

[As I See It]

Drew Timmie's footwork is incredible; he is so smooth. Should he come out and he lasted to the second round as projected, I'd be shocked.

[Pelicanidae]

I'd give up anything not named Zion/BI/Kira to move up to take Suggs. Assuming he doesn't go #1 or #2.

Trust me his talents are being throttled down in college ball. It'll blossom in the NBA.

It's going to be quite funny when the draft shakes out and Cade and Mobley end up going #4 and #5 and then are clearly the #1 and #2 players in the class once NBA play begins.

[DaPelFromHell]

I don?t think Mobley will end up being better than Suggs or Green. Maybe equal. Suggs made one of the best back to back plays I?ve seen in quite sometime last night and I?m not talking about the 3 dribble 35 foot bank shot 3 in 3.3 seconds to beat the buzzer. When he blocked UCLA big man Riley?s shot and then made an unreal halfcourt bounce pass to Timme for a layup I was like ?WOW!!?

[Pelicanidae]

I don?t think Mobley will end up being better than Suggs or Green. Maybe equal. Suggs made one of the best back to back plays I?ve seen in quite sometime last night and I?m not talking about the 3 dribble 35 foot bank shot 3 in 3.3 seconds to beat the buzzer. When he blocked UCLA big man Riley?s shot and then made an unreal halfcourt bounce pass to Timme for a layup I was like ?WOW!!?

I'm pretty sure that Mobley will be the better player barring some outlier growth on-ball for Suggs, though I could see an argument that simply by virtue of position Suggs could end up being more valuable - for the most part, it's a guard's league after all.

[Spec3333]

What are the odds that a D. Mitchell wearing uniform #45 is the 13th pick in this year’s draft? I like our last pick #13, Kira Lewis. Jr. The Pels are likely going to draft in the range of pick #13.
Baylor’s Davion Mitchell is an excellent playmaker, shot 45% from 3 this season, and he is an elite defender. Look out, Spider Mitchell, there’s a new #45 on the way!

[Pelicanidae]

What are the odds that a D. Mitchell wearing uniform #45 is the 13th pick in this year’s draft? I like our last pick #13, Kira Lewis. Jr. The Pels are likely going to draft in the range of pick #13.
Baylor’s Davion Mitchell is an excellent playmaker, shot 45% from 3 this season, and he is an elite defender. Look out, Spider Mitchell, there’s a new #45 on the way!

He's also 23 before his rookie season starts, just something to be aware of.

This is not some young guy coming out of nowhere, this is a guy who is better than a lot of his competition because he's considerably older than most of his competition.

I have huge Obi Toppin vibes for Davion Mitchell, though not quite to that extent.

Toppin was someone who dominated the competition, and the two major reasons why were:
1) Played in an excellent team context
2) Was way older than everyone else

And then he's arrived in the NBA and actually he looks pretty lacklustre, pretty unimpressive most of the time, and his weaknesses that couldn't be exposed at a college level due to the competition suddenly jump off the screen whenever you watch him.

I don't think Mitchell will be that bad, because I think his skills are more transferable to an NBA context, but there's a reason basically nobody has mocked him in the lottery all year long despite overall very solid play.

[As I See It]

I'm out on this Bleacher Report gem.....

New Orleans Pelicans Receive: C Myles Turner
Dallas Mavericks Receive: C Steven Adams
Indiana Pacers Receive: F/C Maxi Kleber, C Jaxson Hayes, 2021 first-round pick (top-five protected, via Pelicans)

Make it NAW (or an extended Hart) instead of JAXSON and make that a Lottery Protected Pick and I might be interested. (Would Dallas really want to do this?)

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...king-about-now

[Pelicanidae]

Just thought this might be useful for some people who haven't been able to catch some games, or who have only caught one or two games from key guys. This is taken from the March 16th episode of the Prep2Pro podcast, where they run down all of the ''prospects'' from teams that made the NCAA tournament. I am not transcribing everything they said for every player, just the main ones that people may find useful. They're focusing on things to watch during the tournament which is obviously over now but it gives some insights into their skills and evaluations as of Mid-March

The link for this episode of the podcast can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2sw...RUK64RLsdMGZbQ

Franz Wagner (Michigan)
Jake: The elevator pitch is a two way impact wing, who is incredibly lengthy and functional - we talked about him in defensive ground coverage - a very smart and skilled player. I'm looking for Franz to be more aggressive on the ball, getting downhill, taking pullup jumpers, but Franz is one of my good two-way guys in the class.

Kai Jones (Texas)
Jake: I'm really excited to see how people who haven't been watching Texas react to Kai Jones, because the flashes are absolutely nutty, just incredibly co-ordinated at 6'11, very fluid shooting mechanics. Doesn't have a huge role in minutes and offensive load with Texas but he's certainly someone who will pop off the screen for you when you watch because of his physical tools and the fluidity with which he moves, handles, shoots, slides on the perimeter.
Max: Fluidity and co-ordination are definitely the things there, he's not going to play a lot of minutes but he will grab a board and go coast to coast and people are amazed he's 6'11.

Greg Brown (Texas)
Max: Another guy who is really physically talented, one of the best vertical leapers in all of college basketball, great length. A restricted role as a play finisher much like Kai Jones. He has issues as a decision maker and with his shot but defensively, on and off the ball, he makes quite an impact at the college level. He's capable of moving with guys despite slightly janky movement but his length is overwhelming and his recognition is good.

Scottie Barnes (FSU)
Jake: I think Scottie has the potential to be a March Madness darling, he's an awesome human being. On the court, we're talking about 6'8, may or may not be overextended as a primary handler right now, but he has wizardly passing reads, real manipulation, he's sliding with 1s; if you're looking for versatility on both ends he will give it to you. Plays extremely hard, the shot has steadily improved as the season's gone on, so Scottie Barnes has definitely picked up as late.
Max: Yeah, FSU, is unique in what it asks offensively and defensive from these guys. Will probably be a tough watch from an analysis standpoint because of the quantity of the switching and the weirdness of Barnes' defensive role, but he's a forward with interesting physical tools and creation ability who makes a real defensive impact.

James Bouknight (UCon)
Jake: You're looking at offensive firepower. Off guard, 6'5, pretty big time athlete with real hangtime at the rim to avoid help defenders. Creativity around the rim. 3pt shooting has fallen off a little bit but I'm certainly interested to see what he does. I'm looking for on-ball reps and opportunities to make decisions, I'm hoping that he can take that little leap but even if we don't see it he's a very fun athlete and a bigtime scorer.
Max: Yeah, with Bouknight if you're expecting him to be a major on ball advantage creator or on-ball hub you'll be disappointed but watch for what he's doing off the ball, how he opens himself with timing as a cutter, because he really does function more off-ball than people may anticipate from big time college scoring guards, and that's probably more analogous to his end NBA role.
Jake: He's a good refresher for that college scorer archetype because he sets up, cuts with footwork and a change of pace, definitely worth tuning into.

Cam Thomas (LSU)
Jake: As pure of a bucket getter as they come, everywhere he's been he puts the ball in the bucket. The shots are tough, they're very contested, but the space creation is real and that's the trait that's most bankable for his NBA projection. The difficulty of shots he takes on a daily basis is pretty wild when you consider the percentages - he's not 40% from deep or anything but he maintains a reasonable efficiency.
Max: Yeah watch for the shot quality and the decision making windows, to think about him beyond the scoring totals.
Jake: He's someone where the A button is largely broken but he's fun to watch.

Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga)
Max: Suggs figures to be a high lottery pick, I think he's a guy that if you're expecting a traditional lead guard or a modern lead guard who drives half-court team offense, that's not what you get from Suggs. He's a guy that is a bigtime transition handler who can create a little in the half-court by virtue of shooting and his ability to make reads but he doesn't have the handle to create on-ball advantages.
Jake: I want to highlight the team context, it's a democratic offense which is the closest thing you get to an NBA offense in college, so while I think Suggs is limited by his handle it's noteworthy to acknowledge he isn't asked to do that and he is able to showcase off-ball offense with relocation and cutting and those things.

Corey Kispert (Gonzaga)
Max: He is the shooter in college, highly versatile with incredible range and good mechanics. The thing to watch is that he has significant other skills. He has grown into a good finisher, he is quicker laterally, he can execute some solid passing reads, and defensively he's intelligent with good size and strength. The shooting is easy to see but watch for the other skills because that's where he differentiates himself as a high end shooter.
Jake: I always find myself rewinding when he finishes and saying how did he get the step there, an he just finds a way. One of the most efficient players in college basketball regardless of context, the perfect roleplayer.

Luka Garza (Iowa)
Max: He's a dominant college player so he'll draw the attention.
Jake: The appeal of Garza is that his shooting is impressive, I think he's a good big man shooter, his mechanics aren't the most fluid but it's a high release, he can hit it in the mid-range and he's a lethal pick and pop threat. That's the most translatable skill. The defensive is the detriment, with heavy feet, slow lateral quickness, you can see him running up and down how much it exhausts him to get end to end. A ton of fun to watch from a college standpoint, it may not all translate but the shooting is what works the most.
Max: What differentiates him is that he is a real shooting threat, he can come of a screen - not very fast but he can do it - but he's the big time prospect there.

Joe Wieskamp (Iowa)
Max: He really knows how to play off the ball, he sets up his movement well - he has to clean up some footwork - but he knows how to move off ball and is an accomplished shooter.

Evan Mobley (USC)
Max: Basic idea is - incredibly intelligent individual with unbelievable recognition and processing speed on both ends to go with unique physical tools and outstanding lateral movement and functional length. His technique is excellent when it comes to footwork, he has the discipline to wait to go for blocks, and meanwhile he has the coordination to cover space, his leaping is quick, and y'know, it all centres around this combination of high level feel and intellect to go with the tools. You won't miss Mobley, it's all quite obvious with him when you're watching.

Bones Hyland (VCU)
Max: A bomber from 3pt land who is also a very intelligent team defender as a small and skinny guard. THis year he's had more success getting to the rim, has some actual burst but the finishing has been a struggle. Three point bombing and team defense.
Jake: Bones, we talk about irrational attempts, it is only right to group Bones in that, it's off the dribble with some wizardry in the handle and footwork, shoots a very soft ball with a ton of versatility. A fun watch.

Jared Butler (Baylor)
Jake: Butler used to be a scoring guard with a crazy handle. He has now added defensive prowess and playmaking to his repertoire. Yes he's limited as an athlete but we're looking at a lead guard prospect with some shot-making.

Davion Mitchell (Baylor)
Max: Much more of a track record as a defender, really impactful at the point of attack with quick lateral movement. Exceptional change of direction and has made big strides as a shooter. Something to watch with him is the decision making, if you're thinking of him really high. To get ahead of it, he is not related to Donovan Mitchell.
Jake: There's a small part of me that believes they are because it all just looks too similar. He's upped his stock this year and a lot of that comes from the 3pt shooting jump, the pullup is working, there's legit space creation - those are the selling points.

Moses Moody (Arkansas)
Max: Selling point would be that Moody is, uh, it's hard to pick out a greatest skill because he's so well rounded. Really good shooter with some tough shot making ability. Intelligent with great footwork attacking off the catch with rip-throughs and counters off that. Intelligent team defender with high level recognition, very active with great functional length and good movement to go with great size. Does a lot of everything with that tough shotmaking some connective playmaking ability. Just the sort of wing prospect who does a lot at an NBA level.
Jake: I will re-emphasise the shooting versatility combined with his feel, he operates a lot off the ball and consistently puts himself in advantageous positions and his one motion release gives him a ton of versatility. Can get to his shot from anywhere, off any action.

Jeremiah Robinson Earle (Villanova)
Max: Really good shooter for a guy that size who is a good lateral mover. A strong offensive connection piece who gets the ball movement and brings a lot of movement skills on the defensive end.

Tre Mann (Florida)
Max: He's taken a massive leap in his sophomore season and has evolved into a well rounded guard player. Central to his game is the change of direction and the craft as a shooter and finisher. He gets into the pullups out of so many different combinations it's pretty intimidating and then as a finisher he has the scoops and the ambidexterity. On top of that he has a fairly unique smoothness, reminiscent of Kira Lewis in a way, really seamless and can do it with both hands. He's grown into a larger role with Florida. He fulfills responsibilities as a team defender though he's not the most physical or involved. A serious guard prospect.

Day'Ron Sharpe (UNC)
Max: Really intelligent big man, an intelligent high impact defender but not a major offensive self-creator.
Jake: Not really much to add. I love to watch him because he's so smart and he makes smart plays but there's not that much to add.

Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois)
Max: Maybe the only one relevant this year, really shifty guard who is pretty explosive from a burst standpoint. Really good college player.
Jake: Personally I think the projection to the next level is a bit wonky. One of the best players in college all year, so props to Ayo but I think he's more of a college player.
Max: I like to watch with the pullup, because that seems to be very variable - when the footwork looks good it looks good but when it's not there are huge issues. A guy to enjoy with his unique handling moments, he's a guy to watch.

Deuce McBride (West Virginia)
Max: Uniquely impactful guard defender, unbelievable instincts and sees rotations multiple seconds before anyone else. Great point of attack defender, physical, awesome laterally. Such a uniquely great feel for transition defense, the effort, the fact that he can elevate to make plays on the ball. Offensively, excellent pull up shooter and genuinely excellent shot maker. He struggles to get to the rim, he's limited as a handler, he's not that bursty. He's a good finisher when he gets at the rim but he just struggles getting there. The passing reads are not there for a lead guard. More of what you should be looking for are the defensive instincts.
Jake: Hit the nail on the head with him.

Cade Cunningham (OSU)
Max: I feel like people know the deal with Cade by now.
Jake: Cade is a 6'8 point guard who is incredibly strong, wizardry as a passer, good handler, great touch at the rim, appears to now be a plus plus shooter with fantastic touch -
Max: Yeah the shooting is what you should look for. His comparables as a shooter historically are kind of ridiculous at this point, and he can get into shots off complex moves. Pretty ridiculous for a guy who, one of the knocks on him in the past, has been his shooting. That he's evolved into this so quickly...
Jake: Considering the guy we have now is the guy we saw in the U19 championships is a pure testament to his work ethic and commitment.
Max: Look to the diversity of his advantage creation, his ability to win in diverse ways is incredible - he'll beat you pulling up, or with dribble moves, or footwork, or strength, or change of pace, and even occasionally with some explosion though that's not quite as consistent. Truly diverse advantage creator and that's the mark of a high level on-ball creator, so that's something to watch with Cade. As well as, I think it can be a good opportunity to see his passing because his raw assist numbers understate that. He's making high level reads with high level execution on the move, high velocity, live dribble, and the manipulation is there. Watch for the quality of the passing beyond the assists, and the diversity of the advantage creation. Excellent as an off-ball defender as well. As we said with Mobley, you can't miss it with Cade.

[Pelicanidae]

Thinking about Sharife Cooper again cause he kind of exploded out when he started his season but faded a bit in terms of public discussions.

He finished the year averaging
33/13/7 per 100 despite being short.

The knock on him is the efficiency, more than anything else. 52% TS is not good and even just the TS% alone with no context makes it look better than it is. Sharife shot 39% from the floor and 22% from 3 on the season. The reason his TS% is as high as it is is that he

A) Drew fouls like a madman, a FTr over .50 which is huge
B) Shot 83% from the line when he got there, and so generated a ton of points at the line given the high attempts.

What's interesting is that the 2pt% is about 47% which isn't particularly terrible (it's not great either but it's not horrific), his FG% really is dragged down by the awful 3pt percentage: 22% is genuinely abhorrent. The issue is that depending on how you choose to look up his year, it's easy to find guys who fit his profile who both achieved and flopped in the NBA. Guys who fit his college profile in most ways (matches in 2pt%, FTr, FT%, AST%, TOV%, BPM, etc) include some great alumni as Steph Curry and Damian Lillard, but also Kay Felder and Tim Frazier.

Some guys like Zion, you type in their statistical achievements in college and the list you get back of guys who match that is 4 names long and includes hall of famers. You do the same with Sharife and you just get this huge mash with a massive range of outcomes, from all-time greats down to not-even-NBA players.

So that leaves it down to how much you believe in the shooting improvement and whether you think his passing will translate in the NBA. Personally I think the passing will translate pretty comfortably, I think he's a pretty special passer for a guy of his size, but I don't know whether I'm confident enough in my evaluation to predict a huge 3pt% increase up from 22%. The FT% makes it more believable but it's a huge gamble.

I think he's clearly a first round talent but is he lottery or is he mid-20s. That's the question. I'm leaning lottery, with my gut, but it's hard to say. More thinking necessary. Going to have to rewatch some film.

[Pelicanidae]

On the one hand, Sharife shot 22% from 3 on high volume, obliterating his TS% and overall FG%

On the other hand, he's the only player in NCAA history to have an AST% over 50%, a FTr over .500, and to take more than 50% of his shots at the rim in a single season.

No one else in college basketball under 6'4 took 50% of their shots at the rim this year. 14 players did it total and 12 of them were over 6'8. Sharife is 6'0 exactly. He just got to the rim a lot, the vast majority unassisted makes as well. There's something to be said about that level of craft.

It's actually interesting comparing Cooper to Davion Mitchell. On the one hand, Mitchell shot like 45% from 3 but only about 64% from the line, and his volume at the line as was relatively low (FTr of about .24, I think). By contrast, Cooper's 3pt% is garbage, but his FT% is way higher than Mitchells and he got to the line more than twice as often. Mitchell is the better defender, by far, Sharife is comfortably the better passer.

Generally speaking, FT% is more of an indicator of long term shooting ability than 3pt%, especially when the 3pt percentage is an outlier (Mitchell shot pretty poorly from 3 in both seasons before this one), but on the other hand 22% really is terrible. Tankathon's Projected NBA 3pt% tool (which is a janky tool, I'm only using it as a point of comparison not an argument) has their projected NBA 3pt% almost identical as a result of this. Is it a strength issue? Sharife is small and only 19, whereas Davion is 22 right now, could it be just a case of adding that core strength in time?

They're both small, so it's an interesting comparison.

[Pelicanidae]

On the J Giddey train, doing some investigations. NBL hasn't been a big thing for me this year but I'm very intrigued

[Snarly]

Jaden Springer is my guy. Overlooked big time. He's probably going to be the youngest or ones of the youngest in the class.