You guys, I think we need to pay Lonzo

[Erose]

$9-$12 million? There is absolutely no way you get a player like Ball for that. That is almost just MLE.

Then go in another direction. He isn?t an elite player IMO and is in stretches an above average player. People keep talking about his defense. Really? If I was a guard in the NBA I would be chomping at the bit when the Pels pop up on the schedule. Guards just go off on this team nearly every single game. That is where we are the weakest defensively the wing.


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[Pelicanidae]

Then go in another direction. He isn?t an elite player IMO and is in stretches an above average player. People keep talking about his defense. Really? If I was a guard in the NBA I would be chomping at the bit when the Pels pop up on the schedule. Guards just go off on this team nearly every single game. That is where we are the weakest defensively the wing.


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The issue isn't that Ball is a bad defender, it's that we are a bad defensive team, and defense is not a one man game.

Now, don't get me wrong: Ball is not as good on defense as some people claim, at least not in my opinion. But he is generally quite good on D. That means very little when you're talking about a horrific team defense.

We are a team that once had both Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday on it and was not a consistent top 5 defense. That alone tells you how much D can be attributed to one or two individuals; that is, it can't.

[As I See It]

The issue isn't that Ball is a bad defender, it's that we are a bad defensive team.

A shift in the paradigm? Something's seriously wrong...we agree.

[Erose]

Ball is an above average defender at best that is what I am saying. Nothing more nothing less on that matter. I wish I was wrong on that fact.

If he was an elite defender then yeah we could start talking upper teens lower twenties for a annual salary.

Anyway let?s see in the next few months if Lonzo can be a above average player in any month that is not February.


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[PELICANSFAN]

Then go in another direction. He isn?t an elite player IMO and is in stretches an above average player. People keep talking about his defense. Really? If I was a guard in the NBA I would be chomping at the bit when the Pels pop up on the schedule. Guards just go off on this team nearly every single game. That is where we are the weakest defensively the wing.


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Do you know what type of young player the Pels could get for $9-$12 million? Do you think that player is at the same level as Ball? Heck, he makes $11 million now on a rookie deal. I can understand saying that you do not want to pay him $20 million, but saying we should not pay him more than $9-$12 million is a bit drastic.

[new city champ]

Earlier this year I thought the Pels offer for Ball should top out between $12-$15 million annually. Something like 4 years/$50 million-$60 million, with a team option in the fourth year. As I didn't think he and Klutch would take that offer, I thought a trade the logical outcome before the deadline.

Now Lonzo has played his way out of that pay bracket and you can see the outline of a player who could be really useful to the Pels core: a young, rangy guard who can defend three positions, be a secondary ball handler, upper tier 3-point shooter and not demand too many shots. That version of Lonzo, assuming he stays with us, is closer to being a $15-$20 million player annually.

Do we want to offer him, say, 5-years/ $100 million, with a player option in the final year? I think the price tag in the restricted free agent market is going to come in at least around there and maybe more.

I wouldn't go above that line, even if he shoots 40% from deep the rest of the way and continues to improve from the line. He shows signs of being a good player, of using his size more in the lane, of being smarter passing and handling the ball. But I might still might move him for a good player+pick who could balance the roster out.

This version of Lonzo, however, makes paying him versus trading him a legitimately tough call for a GM. Maybe things will clarify between now and the deadline...

[Pelicanidae]

Do we want to offer him, say, 5-years/ $100 million, with a player option in the final year? I think the price tag in the restricted free agent market is going to come in at least around there and maybe more.

No. That's such a long contract for someone with so much to prove, and giving him a player option is absurd; in the universe where we give such a long deal without him having proved any real consistency, the least we could demand is a team option.

[pelafanatic]

If Zo finishes the season above 40% from 3 on nearly 8 attempts, I would happily give him 4/80 and call it a day. He’s developing an elite 3 point shot, and you pay for elite skills. There’s a pretty decent likelihood that he is now a top 20 jump shooter in the NBA. With his other above average skills of transition passing and on ball defense, that is a 20 million dollar player. That Zo is also a nice fit in between BI and our projection for Kira.

The question is a lot more difficult if he has another month at 33%. To put things into perspective, he has had one game under 40% this month, and zero games with less than 2 threes. He might just be a flamethrower, but the might is still scary. I think, at this point, it is worth playing out the year to find out.

[pelafanatic]

I think I am comfortable with Lonzo and Hart making a combined 30 mil

[Pelicanidae]

If Zo finishes the season above 40% from 3 on nearly 8 attempts, I would happily give him 4/80 and call it a day. He’s developing an elite 3 point shot, and you pay for elite skills. There’s a pretty decent likelihood that he is now a top 20 jump shooter in the NBA. With his other above average skills of transition passing and on ball defense, that is a 20 million dollar player. That Zo is also a nice fit in between BI and our projection for Kira.

The question is a lot more difficult if he has another month at 33%. To put things into perspective, he has had one game under 40% this month, and zero games with less than 2 threes. He might just be a flamethrower, but the might is still scary. I think, at this point, it is worth playing out the year to find out.

That if is a pretty huge if. He's barely at 40% from 3 on the season now, after a month in which he shot 48% from 3. He'd have to maintain his volume on at least 40% for basically the entirety of the rest of the year to even scrape it, which seems a touch unlikely. The odds of him just completely avoiding having a bum week here or there are so low. Remember, we're talking about a guy who shot 32% from 3 in the first 14 games of the year (half of the season thus far, basically).

Just for reference, Lonzo is 51st in 3pt% on the season, and is 16th in attempts per game. Considering that his shooting boom is pretty much entirely raw c&s (very little off screens, very little movement shooting, only about 36% on the season on pullups) it's hard for me to credit him as a top 20 shooter in the entire league.

[DroopyDawg]

Cause I'm sick of the framing being ''I'd rather keep him at a reasonable cost'', as if there is anyone that wouldn't rather keep him at a reasonable cost.

Is there anyone who, upon being told that Lonzo wants to stay at a cost they find reasonable, would not want to keep him? If Lonzo said he'd stay on the minimum, is there anyone who would say no?

When you say ''I'd rather keep him at a reasonable cost'' you're implying there are people out there who wouldn't. That's just not true.

Look bruh. I didn't even want Lonzo on the team... I didn't even want him at a "reasonable cost". So for me to even say what I said is a step in the complete opposite direction of my previous stance.

Of course any team would take him at a "reasonable cost" but until the last month or so I didn't think there was a reasonable cost for him. not even league minimum. Guards that can't shoot are worthless in today's NBA, but he's put in the time and the work and gotten MUCH better.

[pelafanatic]

That if is a pretty huge if. He's barely at 40% from 3 on the season now, after a month in which he shot 48% from 3. He'd have to maintain his volume on at least 40% for basically the entirety of the rest of the year to even scrape it, which seems a touch unlikely. The odds of him just completely avoiding having a bum week here or there are so low. Remember, we're talking about a guy who shot 32% from 3 in the first 14 games of the year (half of the season thus far, basically).

Just for reference, Lonzo is 51st in 3pt% on the season, and is 16th in attempts per game. Considering that his shooting boom is pretty much entirely raw c&s (very little off screens, very little movement shooting, only about 36% on the season on pullups) it's hard for me to credit him as a top 20 shooter in the entire league.

I dont think its a coincidence that his shooting bump has coincided with Point Zion. I also dont put much weight in the Pels shooting the first 15 games or so considering everyone, even JJ Redick, struggled from 3. I think it had way more to do with learning a new system, with 2 new starters, in a pandemic season with no fans and an extremely limited offseason.

[PELICANSFAN]

That if is a pretty huge if. He's barely at 40% from 3 on the season now, after a month in which he shot 48% from 3. He'd have to maintain his volume on at least 40% for basically the entirety of the rest of the year to even scrape it, which seems a touch unlikely. The odds of him just completely avoiding having a bum week here or there are so low. Remember, we're talking about a guy who shot 32% from 3 in the first 14 games of the year (half of the season thus far, basically).

Just for reference, Lonzo is 51st in 3pt% on the season, and is 16th in attempts per game. Considering that his shooting boom is pretty much entirely raw c&s (very little off screens, very little movement shooting, only about 36% on the season on pullups) it's hard for me to credit him as a top 20 shooter in the entire league.

You are including a lot of players that either have played much less games and/or take much less shots from 3. You including players like Christian Wood, Brunson, Jeff Green, Sterling Brown, Mychal Mulder, Jamychal Green, Monk, Bazemore, Bucher, Lamb, etc. who have all shot much less than half of the attempts Ball has taken. So, 51 is low, although 20 is high. By comparison, of those top 16 (17 total since he is tied with Trent in attempts) in attempts per game, his shooting percentage is 6th behind McCollum (who has only played 13 games), Lavine, Trent, Curry, and Beasley. Can he keep that up? Would be tough. However, if he ends up in the mid 38s or higher, that is still pretty impressive given the number of attempts he has.

[HornetGuru]

Lonzo is shooting almost 40% on 8 attempts a game on the entire season, it isn’t a fluke. Even JJ said it, Lonzo is a shooter. He’s 22 and gonna be a very good player in the league

[As I See It]

Arguably, the last High Profile Free Agent we just let walk without trying to re-sign was Julius Randle, a 2021 All Star. Wouldn't it be ironic if Lonzo Ball..........

[Pelicanidae]

I dont think its a coincidence that his shooting bump has coincided with Point Zion. I also dont put much weight in the Pels shooting the first 15 games or so considering everyone, even JJ Redick, struggled from 3. I think it had way more to do with learning a new system, with 2 new starters, in a pandemic season with no fans and an extremely limited offseason.

The difference between Redick and Lonzo is that Redick has over a decade of league-leading shooting under his belt to fall back on when it comes to his reputation as a shooter. Lonzo does not have that: in fact, more than half of his career thus far has been as a particularly terrible shooter. So I can't give Lonzo the same benefit of the double that I would give someone like Redick. I'm just very reluctant to give Lonzo more excuses, because it seems like when he plays well those who champion giving him a big payday love to parade it around as if he's suddenly the second coming, but when he plays badly there's always a huge excuse. I know it comes with the territory, having as many stans as he does, but it's still annoying.

I also don't think it's a coincidence that his shooting has improved as Point Zion has become more of a thing. Totally agree with you there. The reality is that the less he's ballhandling in the half-court, the fewer terrible shots he can take, and the shots he gets with Zion on-ball tend to be more open than other shots due to the whole Zion's Immense Gravity Thing that happens. He's making more shots because he's taking better shots, in part.

But I think even Lonzo's biggest supporters would agree that him having another month quite like this one (that is, 48%+ from deep on nearly 8 a game) is a tad unlikely. He's going to have some off games here and there, and given that his 3pt% now is barely teetering above 40%, he could easily finish the year shooting sub-40% from 3 even if he's generally pretty good for the rest of the season.

Being sub-40% from 3 on a relatively limited variety of shots (Even if the volume is high) makes it hard to credit as one of the best shooters in the world, which a top 20 shooter in the NBA is. That's not even really an insult to Lonzo, it's just a testament to how advanced today's best shooters are.

[Pelicanidae]

Lonzo is shooting almost 40% on 8 attempts a game on the entire season, it isn’t a fluke. Even JJ said it, Lonzo is a shooter. He’s 22 and gonna be a very good player in the league

He's 23 and 4 months.

[Snarly]

He's 23 and 4 months.

Season will be long over by then. If he maintain those averages, it's pretty damn impressive at 22.

[HornetGuru]

He's 23 and 4 months.

Damn, good catch.

Anyways every single time the media brings up Lonzo SVG just gushes about him so he might not be going anywhere. I’ve always wanted to draft Jalen Green but if Lonzo stays being able to land Kuminga might be the best fit, you could play him at SF or PF offensively because you’ll have point Zion, also Kuminga is a nice long and strong defender he could take on the tougher matchup defensively making life easier for Zion

[HornetGuru]

Season will be long over by then. If he maintain those averages, it's pretty damn impressive at 22.

No he’s saying he is 23 and 4 months, not 23 in 4 months, it was my mistake, but still he’s playing great for a 23 year old

[Snarly]

Misread. Lol.

[Pelicanidae]

Damn, good catch.

Anyways every single time the media brings up Lonzo SVG just gushes about him so he might not be going anywhere. I’ve always wanted to draft Jalen Green but if Lonzo stays being able to land Kuminga might be the best fit, you could play him at SF or PF offensively because you’ll have point Zion, also Kuminga is a nice long and strong defender he could take on the tougher matchup defensively making life easier for Zion

Yeah, an easy mistake to make. Jayson Tatum's still 19, if you ask some people

I like Kuminga a lot, I had him in my top 5 prior to the start of the college year and he's been good in the Ignite games we've seen for sure, I wouldn't be mad about drafting him at all. That said, he's not the defensive top 5 guy that I'd want next to Zion in a perfect world (that's Mobley, who I think is excellent and a clear #2 prospect).

I also don't think you should be making any drafting decisions based on what fits best with Lonzo Ball.

[pelafanatic]

The difference between Redick and Lonzo is that Redick has over a decade of league-leading shooting under his belt to fall back on when it comes to his reputation as a shooter. Lonzo does not have that: in fact, more than half of his career thus far has been as a particularly terrible shooter. So I can't give Lonzo the same benefit of the double that I would give someone like Redick. I'm just very reluctant to give Lonzo more excuses, because it seems like when he plays well those who champion giving him a big payday love to parade it around as if he's suddenly the second coming, but when he plays badly there's always a huge excuse. I know it comes with the territory, having as many stans as he does, but it's still annoying.

I also don't think it's a coincidence that his shooting has improved as Point Zion has become more of a thing. Totally agree with you there. The reality is that the less he's ballhandling in the half-court, the fewer terrible shots he can take, and the shots he gets with Zion on-ball tend to be more open than other shots due to the whole Zion's Immense Gravity Thing that happens. He's making more shots because he's taking better shots, in part.

But I think even Lonzo's biggest supporters would agree that him having another month quite like this one (that is, 48%+ from deep on nearly 8 a game) is a tad unlikely. He's going to have some off games here and there, and given that his 3pt% now is barely teetering above 40%, he could easily finish the year shooting sub-40% from 3 even if he's generally pretty good for the rest of the season.

Being sub-40% from 3 on a relatively limited variety of shots (Even if the volume is high) makes it hard to credit as one of the best shooters in the world, which a top 20 shooter in the NBA is. That's not even really an insult to Lonzo, it's just a testament to how advanced today's best shooters are.

I think its kind of ridiculous to even consider Lonzo’s shooting from his LA days when deciding on a price point. This is a guy with top prospect pedigree who has elite coordination. He arrived with horrible fundamentals, only to have his jumper completely reworked by Fred Vinson, who we champion as quite possibly the best jump shot whisperer in the NBA. Since arriving in Nola, Ball has shot 38.4% on 617 3pa. That is not a small sample, and you have to imagine that, as he continues to get even more comfortable with his COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SHOT MECHANICS, his shot will become even more consistent. I think we understate the work that this guy, as well as BI and Zion, has put in in order to develop the skill.

It sucks that theres dbags who have basically spoiled even the thought of Lonzo staying in Nola for many in the Pels community, but Im absolutely starting to turn a corner on the player that he is the player that he can be.


Edit: I added the all caps for emphasis as to how absurd it is that a guy can completely change his shot and be this good at shooting this quickly.

[HornetGuru]

Yeah, an easy mistake to make. Jayson Tatum's still 19, if you ask some people

I like Kuminga a lot, I had him in my top 5 prior to the start of the college year and he's been good in the Ignite games we've seen for sure, I wouldn't be mad about drafting him at all. That said, he's not the defensive top 5 guy that I'd want next to Zion in a perfect world (that's Mobley, who I think is excellent and a clear #2 prospect).

I also don't think you should be making any drafting decisions based on what fits best with Lonzo Ball.

Agreed, I’m saying if we resigned Lonzo to a max at least some thought would go into it, and agree, Mobley is superior to Kuminga for me, I just think Kuminga is more realistic. My top 5 is and will prob stay:

1. Cade
2. Mobley
3. Green
4. Kuminga
5. Suggs

[Pelicanidae]

I think its kind of ridiculous to even consider Lonzo’s shooting from his LA days when deciding on a price point. This is a guy with top prospect pedigree who has elite coordination. He arrived with horrible fundamentals, only to have his jumper completely reworked by Fred Vinson, who we champion as quite possibly the best jump shot whisperer in the NBA. Since arriving in Nola, Ball has shot 38.4% on 617 3pa. That is not a small sample, and you have to imagine that, as he continues to get even more comfortable with his COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SHOT MECHANICS, his shot will become even more consistent. I think we understate the work that this guy, as well as BI and Zion, has put in in order to develop the skill.

It sucks that theres dbags who have basically spoiled even the thought of Lonzo staying in Nola for many in the Pels community, but Im absolutely starting to turn a corner on the player that he is the player that he can be.


Edit: I added the all caps for emphasis as to how absurd it is that a guy can completely change his shot and be this good at shooting this quickly.

I never said I was counting Lonzo's shooting from LA to decide on a price point. I said I was counting his LA days when deciding on whether or not to give him leeway during periods of poor shooting, like the start of this year.

The fact is, he's got a long history of being an actively bad shooter. When you say ''oh, we don't count the first half of this year, even JJ was bad'', my response is ''yeah, but I can trust that it was just a down-period for JJ cause I've seen him be great for a very long time, whereas with Lonzo we don't have a huge sample size of him being good, we only have a past sample size of him being bad, so I'm less likely to just dismiss his troubles''. Hopefully that clears up my point of view.

Fun fact, by the way, just since we're talking a bit about Lonzo's changes since arriving here, when we first made the LA trade most people on here remember that I was very negative about Ingram - didn't have any faith in him at all. What people remember far less is that I was actually quite optimistic about Lonzo Interesting how the tables have turned on that one, eh?