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Lord have mercy. He is also in year 1.4 and is 20 years old as a raw prospect. When you want an organization to build through the draft with very young/raw players, then fans also need to be prepared to have some patience. Which apparently there is none. So young vets it is again then??
The thing is, and I'm not the first person to say this at all, the reality is that Lonzo probably will be a good NBA player. When his career is all said and done, he will probably be viewed fairly positively. Not as a star or an all-time great, but as a guy who was solid.
The issue that stems from this is 4-fold:
1) You don't pay the kind of money he's almost certainly wanting for 'solid'
2) While he will probably be solid, he's still a while away from that consistently and we can't afford to pay that money for development time
3) The role his biggest fans envision for him is not the role that is conducive to him being solid, and doesn't often pay that money
4) We don't have the time to wait before RFA hits to see if he can work things out more consistently early
The result of that is that either you have to take the gamble, and not trade him, just crossing your fingers and hoping that he's going to work out consistency and patch up some of the holes in his game well enough to justify paying him big money in the summer, or you accept losing him. It's all or nothing, you make that move either he figures it all out quickly and never looks back or you've crippled your cap severely for multiple vital years.
That, to me, means the only practical thing to do is trade him. Maybe he'll end up being good but I don't think it's on this team or for a few years. When he's 27 and has gotten his payday and has been around a few different teams and is both willing to play the more auxiliary role *and* everyone else has realised that's where he's best, he'll figure it out and be late-career Iguodala-lite somewhere. Good for him. Just not here.
Basketball.
Something we agree on, this.
If you're going to draft someone for upside, you have to be prepared to let that upside develop and yes, that sometimes looks a bit rough in the early stages. If you aren't willing to accept that, then you have a real issue.
Just for the record, Giannis was a massive prospect who needed extreme physical development and had relatively little basketball experience when he was drafted as well. He was dreadful his first two seasons: negative BPMs, sub-league average TS%, TOV% higher than his AST%, not good stuff at all. Don't really need to explain to anyone where his career went after that.
Of course, I'm not saying Jax is destined to be Giannis (almost certainly not going to happen) but it goes to show that you do have to give young, inexperienced, physically underdeveloped guys some time before you start condemning their careers to the trash heap.
Lord have mercy, I only spoke truth as to his current timeline, which is not opinion-based, but verifiable history. Now I know 'Cancel Culture' is the current craze, but I'll stick to the facts rather than trying to re-write his bio to assuage his fandom's deep sensitivities and reverent adulation.
The last line of my post is opinion-based. In it, I give JAX proper credit for his athletic talent, and also, based on the Pelican's handling of him to date, express doubt as to whether his enormous talent would ever come to fruition, here in New Orleans. You know what they say about opinions, don't you? Well, I certainly, don't begrudge you - yours.
There is nothing odd about how the Pelicans have handled him. There is nothing that says he benefits from playing in the G-league, which he did do for a couple of games. They've played him some, and sat him some. e's had some highs. He's had some very lows. Not unusual.
And you can state "verifiable history", but that's useless without this thing called context. Which is what I was talking about. That thing about him being a very young/raw prospect. Which given that, again, his "verifiable history" is not unexpected or unusual. Which then makes your opinion of his future highly questionable and highly debatable. But I also don't begrudge you. Just imo.
That very well could be how things go. There is a version of Lonzo that would be a good fit here: The rangy off guard who can defend 3 positions, shoots 38%+ from distance and 80%+ from the line on low volume and functions as a secondary playmaker and ball handler. He’s not so far from those metrics that you can’t envision him getting there. But that guy is $15 million +/- player for us and has to accept a supporting role. If you still see yourself as a super star point guard in waiting, that kind of revised status and compensation is going to be problematic...
If you can pull Duncan Robinson from the Heat, you gotta do it. He's in a different class of shooter than all but 3- 4 people in the league. https://t.co/6ezmW3wEzR
— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) February 19, 2021
Posting this here since Lonzo is in discussion at the minute.
Lonzo to Heat as core of a deal for Duncan Robinson, yes please.
If you can earn millions coasting by on God given talent and having a wicked fun time, there's probably a good chance you might do that, especially right out of high school?
Not everyone with top 0.01% natural ability in their field also comes with a similar mindset
I don't even blame Jax as much as I blame the brass for not seeing the warning signs that he wasn't serious about improving. Or was just plain thick. That's their job
Last edited by AusPel; 02-19-2021 at 11:00 AM.
For Clarification purposes only.....
https://www.basketball-reference.com.../EBH/2020.html
It's wild that Robinson is averaging 39% from 3 on 8.4 attempts per game and 86% from the FT line and this represents a slight regression from last year
He's just such a ridiculous shooter it's absurd, and at a legit 6'7 that becomes even more threatening. Add to that that he's a decent passer (for a guy who is pretty much entirely an off-ball player), it's pretty absurd. Defense is obviously a bit of an issue but, like JJ, I think he's an okay enough team defender that he can be covered for if the rest of the roster is okay. We know Adams is good, we know Ingram can be fine when he's awake, Zion's been improving and Kira has given us reason for optimism so I'm not too worried about that.
It just boggles me how great Robinson was last year as a shooter. 44.6% on 14 attempts per 100 and 93% from the line is just nuts.
Oh right lmao, sure
It's hard to say, I think I'd go with Robinson just cause he's about 4 years younger and shoots a higher volume; much quicker trigger and probably a touch better as a mover. Harris is better on-ball though and obviously still an incredible shooter. I go with Robinson just cause of the age, probably, but I can see an argument for Harris being better.
It’s funny, we traded back from 4 to 8 and rather than go with a much needed shooter like Herro (who is better than Robinson), yet we went with a project big.
#pelslife
Last edited by UNO Gracias; 02-19-2021 at 12:38 PM.
If you Jimmer it, they will come.
Let's check out a few mocks and see where they rated Herro (and Jax), shan't we?
Bleacher Report (Jax @ 8)
Business Insider (Jax @ 10)14. Tyler Herro (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
Teams are throwing Herro's shooting percentages from Kentucky out the window while he scorches the nets during workouts. For a 6'6" guard, his form and accuracy off spot-ups and movement should look highly convincing and appealing to general managers who see value in adding an NBA-ready shot-maker on a rookie contract.
NBA.com (Jax @ 12)14. Boston Celtics - Tyler Herro, G
School: Kentucky
Age: 19
Other possibilities: Goga Bitadze (C, Georgia), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (G, Virginia Tech)
Expert quote:From Givony: “Herro has slowly moved up draft boards with strong workouts and interviews, given the dearth of shooting in a league that desperately covets dynamic players in his mould.”
Sam Smith (Jax @ 10)18, Indiana Pacers: Tyler Herro, SG, Kentucky
I think Herro could end up being a player we look back at and wonder why he fell so far. Herro can flat-out shoot and if you haven't been paying attention, that's becoming a pretty important thing in today's NBA. - KR
Common threads:16. Orlando Magic. Tyler Herro, 6-5 guard, freshman, Kentucky
He didn't measure well with short arms, which may mean he doesn't pick up the dinner checks. But he can shoot, a reasonably attractive skill in the NBA these days. Some regard him as the best shooter in the draft, which would be helpful around a lot of big guys who don't shoot particularly well.
Jax - Is a project. That's pretty much it
Herro - We've got him low, but he has a very desirable skill and we'll probably look stupid in the future
Pretty much how it played out in reality
Last edited by AusPel; 02-19-2021 at 12:57 PM.
Better overall? Perhaps. Better as a shooter? Absolutely not.
Herro has been rough this year. Really rough. As in, shooting 34% from 3 and that's trending upwards (was about 29% through his first dozen games or so) and the defense has been stunningly poor. He's sophomore slumping hard.
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