February 12th - New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks - 11-13

[Pelicanidae]

Last game we took an L but tonight we bounce back. Second night of a B2B, uncharacteristic performances from Chicago, some of our guys were clearly gassed; the loss sucks, no question, but no reason to let it derail anything. Onwards and upwards.

Tonight we take on the Dallas Mavericks, who are 12-14 but have won 4 of their last 5. Admittedly, all 4 of those wins have been scraped, including a 1 point win over Atlanta and a 5 point win over Minnesota, so it's not like they're screaming back into full momentum: this is still very much a team that's not having a great time.

They rank in the bottom 5 league wide in steals, rebounds, assists, and blocks. They are the 2nd worst 3pt shooting team in the NBA so far this year, at 34% overall. They are 17th in overall FG% and only mediocre (12th) in FT%: all of this means that after last year's historically great offense, Dallas this year is only 17th in ORtg this season so far. Their defense, even worse: at 27th in the NBA, it's one of the bottom 5 overall.

Very little of this is falling on Luka's shoulders, by the way. Watching him play, he's making many of the same passes to the same guys as last year and creating the opportunities: they're just missing a lot of them. Guys who shot well last year just aren't this year, and that includes Kristaps shooting 32% from 3, and of course the loss of Seth Curry who was a huge piece in their rotation last season.

There are obvious things to exploit here. Despite recent improvements, Dallas still struggles to score - particularly whenever Luka is sitting - and their defense can only be defined as porous. We should be coming in fired up from that last loss and ready to recoup. Let's hope that's the attitude the team is taking.

[pelafanatic]

I don't think we lose this game unless KP gets hot, which is obviously very possible. Closeouts have to be better than they were in the Chicago game

[luckyman]

If Dallas goes 18-45 from the 3 point line...I don't know what else to say. They are capable of it. But after that last game, you should be fired up to not get lit up again.

That said, for dear god go under screens on Luka and dont go running out to him like a headless chicken. He's a 30% three point shooter. Just contest with your hands up and don't let him waltz at turtle speed into the paint.

[Pelicanidae]

let him waltz at turtle speed into the paint.

Far easier said than done

Body control, pace control, brilliant deceleration; Luka is one of those guys who will slow right past you

[luckyman]

Far easier said than done

Body control, pace control, brilliant deceleration; Luka is one of those guys who will slow right past you

He's also probably 6'7" 250, and knows how to use his girth.

But he shouldn't be able to tortoise past 2 defenders. And we seem to hate doubling anyone until it's too late.

[PolishFan]

If Dallas goes 18-45 from the 3 point line...I don't know what else to say. They are capable of it. But after that last game, you should be fired up to not get lit up again.

That said, for dear god go under screens on Luka and dont go running out to him like a headless chicken. He's a 30% three point shooter. Just contest with your hands up and don't let him waltz at turtle speed into the paint.

That is a perfect description and a funny one of what Luca does

[pelafanatic]

It's always interesting to me that people view Luka as a good shooter (because he's European I guess?).

He's never shot above 33% from three. He's never been above 31% off the catch. He's never been above 34% on WIDE OPEN 3s. This is the first season in his career that he's shot above 40% from mid range. He's a horrid shooter, and he always has been.

I'm gonna get ripped for this, but if you never watched a game or saw either player, he's eerily similar to Russell Westbrook

[Pelicanidae]

It's always interesting to me that people view Luka as a good shooter (because he's European I guess?).

He's never shot above 33% from three. He's never been above 31% off the catch. He's never been above 34% on WIDE OPEN 3s. This is the first season in his career that he's shot above 40% from mid range. He's a horrid shooter, and he always has been.

I'm gonna get ripped for this, but if you never watched a game or saw either player, he's eerily similar to Russell Westbrook

I mean nah, you're right. If you had never watched basketball or seen them play, you might think purely from the box score that they're similar players. They're not, though, really, so it's a good thing we don't just watch box scores.

The thing about Luka is that he's never been a high efficiency shooter but he's one of those guys who *can* hit from anywhere. Like, with Westbrook, you welcome him taking a 29 foot three because you are about 90% certain he's going to absolutely clank it. With Luka, you aren't; even if he isn't a high percentage guy, he's about as likely to hit a 3 from 30 feet as he is from 24, and both of those numbers are good enough to make you have to pay attention to it. Combine that with his volume - that is, the knowledge that he *will* take it if you let him - creates gravity. It's part of why I've constantly pushed back against this idea that we need a superficial ''stretch'' big: shooting efficiently on super low volume jsut doesn't matter, and often gravity is a product of volume more than it is efficiency.

Of course, there's a baseline where the volume ceases to matter. If you're going to shoot 15% on 3s then you can take 10 a game and nobody is going to guard you. Plus, you always have to guard great passers closer than you do other guys: no use sagging off Luka if all that does is give him better angles to other players.

You are right though, on one thing here, which is that there's a degree to which this kind of gravity relies on other players to actually hit their shots. If you're Steph Curry and you can hit a high percentage of the shots, your offense will work well taking this many threes even if nobody else on the team can really get open. If you're Luka, the gravity you create is mostly useful for creating shots for others, and when they're hitting it works great - see their historically great offense last year. When they're not? Bad. Bad offense. Ugly. Yuck.

[pelafanatic]

I just know that when I'm watching Luka play the Pels, it's always a relief when he hoists a 3 because I know there's a 70% chance he misses it.

The question I was more posing is, why does he have that gravity? What has he ever done to deserve that? Why aren't you certain that he's going to clank it when he's done so 600 times throughout his 3 year career? He's not going to make it. His mechanics are trash. Give him the Zion treatment

[Pelicanidae]

I just know that when I'm watching Luka play the Pels, it's always a relief when he hoists a 3 because I know there's a 70% chance he misses it.

The question I was more posing is, why does he have that gravity? What has he ever done to deserve that? Why aren't you certain that he's going to clank it when he's done so 600 times throughout his 3 year career? He's not going to make it. His mechanics are trash. Give him the Zion treatment

Go for it, give him the room to ball-handle and pass unimpeded and see where it gets you. Might just get you to facing the best offense in NBA history; that's what it did last year.

[13 - 3]

ESPN again tonight. Joel Myers might be out of work soon if this trend continues.

[luckyman]

I'm resigned to the fact that every team's star player will go off on this team, so a big night for Luka.

The difference will be KP/Josh.

[PolishFan]

It's always interesting to me that people view Luka as a good shooter (because he's European I guess?).

He's never shot above 33% from three. He's never been above 31% off the catch. He's never been above 34% on WIDE OPEN 3s. This is the first season in his career that he's shot above 40% from mid range. He's a horrid shooter, and he always has been.

I'm gonna get ripped for this, but if you never watched a game or saw either player, he's eerily similar to Russell Westbrook

With a small difference that Westbrook makes other players worse and Luca makes them better

[donato]

ESPN again tonight. Joel Myers might be out of work soon if this trend continues.

I haven't caught every single game this year and will miss tonight, but on League Pass they've had Joel as an option for every nationally televised game I've watched (along with visiting announcers as an option).

[Funcrusher]

Luka faces his father Zanos today. Zanos must be so proud to face his son again!

[AusPel]

ESPN again tonight. Joel Myers might be out of work soon if this trend continues.

Just use League Pass. Joel and AD all the way

[AusPel]

FFS other teams hitting 20 threes a game against us is going to be the death of me

[luckyman]

Go UNDER the screen on Luka. Wtf is Lonzo doing?

[Stalwart385]

Geez, Mavs picking up where the Bulls left off.

[Spec3333]

Pelz are in big trouble tonight. Porzingis is hot for the first time all year.

[smcgull]

Win or lose, the Pelicans are playing as a team.

[luckyman]

I do not understand why they keep fighting over screens on Luka. Why?

[AusPel]

Why can't we just have a normal defense that doesn't give up a wide open jumper every ********ing play??

[Chris]

Dallas making everything they throw up.

[PelicanNation]

Why do we help so much it's ridiculous .. one or two passes and a man is wide open everytime. The whole team collapses when a man drives ...what kind of defense is this? We are last in 3pt defense how is it that SVG is focused on defense and we are so awful at it.