You guys, I think we need to pay Lonzo

[msusousaphone]

The mistake a lot of people continue making with Lonzo is that they keep trying to gauge him in just the present tense. For some reason they can't look at his continued trajectory of improvement which has been a steeper climb than anyone else on the team. He was stagnant in LA (but so was pretty much every young guy they had) and ever since leaving there has pretty much erased every knock haters put on him.

As of right now, he is worth the contract. If he continues his trajectory of improvement he will be an all-star.

[AusPel]

The mistake a lot of people continue making with Lonzo is that they keep trying to gauge him in just the present tense. For some reason they can't look at his continued trajectory of improvement which has been a steeper climb than anyone else on the team. He was stagnant in LA (but so was pretty much every young guy they had) and ever since leaving there has pretty much erased every knock haters put on him.

As of right now, he is worth the contract. If he continues his trajectory of improvement he will be an all-star.

It's fair because he improved, then regressed badly last season. It's been far from completely linear

But now, it's looking linear again. And we have good reasons to extrapolate that out. But it's not like the element of doubt is unwarranted

[msusousaphone]

He really only regressed last season in the bubble. And that could be contributed to Gentry being a lame duck coach that everyone already knew was toast. And then a few games this season when he was clearly playing hurt. Otherwise it's been a pretty steady improvement.

[AusPel]

He really only regressed last season in the bubble. And that could be contributed to Gentry being a lame duck coach that everyone already knew was toast. And then a few games this season when he was clearly playing hurt. Otherwise it's been a pretty steady improvement.

True, but he did stink to start this new season as well

[AusPel]

It's not like he's fully cured either. He's still doing some insipid Lonzo things, it's just that they're not the majority anymore

[Drudkh_]

I think a lot of Lonzo's resurgence has to do with Zion handling the ball more. No shock that since Zion started initiating the offence more it has allowed for easier and more frequest open shots on the perimeter. Lonzo has been able to effectively find these open spots on the floor when Zion moves with the ball and I think SVG finally realised this over the past couple of weeks. Basketball can be a simple game, put your players in positions where they feel comfortable and more often than not you will see positive results.

I think it is worth mentioning that over the past 6 games Lonzo is 23/44 (52%) on 3's and those figures won't hold up, the real question is when he regresses to around the 36-40% mark will he be able to provide enough inside the line to still be effective. I'm hoping he continues to keep driving to the rim but man does he need to get that FT rate up.

[As I See It]

Are dumb Lonzo threes even a thing anymore?

I think I remember about 1 this season

Additionally......

Whenever Zion or Ingram are fouled going up for the shot, there is a 'hidden shot' (untallied) that gets them to the free throw line (and should lead to points). Extrapolating, on this thought, frequently there are 'hidden assists' (lost to guys like Lonzo) that lead to the free throws.

That's why I always say that relying purely on box score numbers is deceiving.

SIDENOTE: The player who has the most Free Throw Attempts in NBA history is Karl Malone (13,188). Just imagine how many John Stockton Assists are hidden in that number.

[Pelicanidae]

Short answer: no

[AusPel]

Additionally......

Whenever Zion or Ingram are fouled going up for the shot, there is a 'hidden shot' (untallied) that gets them to the free throw line (and should lead to points). Extrapolating, on this thought, frequently there are 'hidden assists' (lost to guys like Lonzo) that lead to the free throws.

That's why I always say that relying purely on box score numbers is deceiving.

SIDENOTE: The player who has the most Free Throw Attempts in NBA history is Karl Malone (13,188). Just imagine how many John Stockton Assists are hidden in that number.

Big inconsistencies with that

Get fouled and make the basket - counts as a field goal attempt

Get fouled but don't make the basket - doesn't count as a field goal attempt

Give an assist and the guy gets fouled and scores - assist counts

Give an assist and the guy gets fouled and doesn't get the bucket but scores from the line - assist doesn't count

[As I See It]

Big inconsistencies with that

Get fouled and make the basket - counts as a field goal attempt

Get fouled but don't make the basket - doesn't count as a field goal attempt

Give an assist and the guy gets fouled and scores - assist counts

Give an assist and the guy gets fouled and doesn't get the bucket but scores from the line - assist doesn't count

Exactly.

[luckyman]

you and pelicandae are never fair when you talk about lonzo having more shot attempts than zion and ingram....context means something....

the hate is when you talk about lonzo having more shot attempts than zion and ingram without context in you comments....the context that yall intently leave out because it will not fit yall agenda......the sad part is that yall watch the games and still would make those type of comments.....alot of those shots are being force on lonzo to shoot.......ingram is always forcing lonzo to shoot 3s by passing him the ball with the shot clock is down so lonzo has to shoot the ball or get a shot clock violation and then yall 2 will blame him for that lol smh....

the defense is not respecting his shot and leave him open..we pass the ball to him so he has to do something with the ball which is shoot it or drive but either way it leads to a shot attempt by lonzo which may lead to him taking more attempts by being open.....

hell yes lonzo take some dumb 3pt shots in games by rushing it so this is a fair criticism
by yall...its all good...

we had games where we were blown out or down and the team get 3pt happy to try and shoot their way back into the game so yes lonzo may have to take more shots in those events that may lead him to have more shots than zion or ingram....

i dont know how many games lonzo had more shot attempts than ingram or zion but i bet if we look at those games then we will see the context that im talking about that you 2 purposely leave out and that is the part that yall are hating on.......other criticism are fair game to me but the shot attempt thing is just foul on yall part.......and dae is just petty as hell smh....

The reason we've all those games where Lonzo leads the team in shots...is because BI forced him at the end of the shot clock? Over and over and over again?

Jesus Christ dude think about what you type before you type it.

[Eman5805]

Good. This means he’s even more tradable. We may even get an unprotected first at this rate.

[Pelicanidae]

Short answer: no

Bit more detail for a longer answer:

People need to stop being prisoners of the moment. Lonzo Ball has been a bad player for his career this far. He was not an effective contributor to winning in LA, and he has largely not been an effective contributor to winning in New Orleans so far. This would be acceptable if he had played 50 or 80 career games: he is nearly 200 games in, and four years deep. Showing no consistent improvement by this point is frankly not good enough.

Now, I'm someone who can be wrong - as anyone can be - and I have been before. Quite notoriously on this board, I was extremely unconfident in the idea of BI ever taking the leap, and while he's not flawless he's clearly a very very good NBA player at this point, well deserving of his all-star status. This is a change I didn't see coming, and I happily admit that: in this case, I am very happy to be wrong and to admit it.

I have not, thus far, been wrong about Lonzo. The issues I had with him in LA are still issues here, for the most part. There are some small exceptions - his 3pt shooting has gone from pure fiction to something that exists but only now and then - but most of my concerns two seasons ago are still a concern now.

His driving is still an issue. His FT shooting is still an issue. His complete lack of an in between game is still an issue. His half-court passing/playmaking is still an issue. People say that he's improved at a ''steeper climb than anyone else'' but that's just not really true: he's improved as a shooter, but that's basically it. He's actually declined in some other ways; for example, he's taking a career low percentage of his shots at the rim this year, and is shooting a career low from short-midrange this year as well. His FG% is being buoyed by a frankly unsustainable 57.9% efficiency from long midrange that simply won't hold up: I know it won't hold up as the sample grows because that would be a shockingly impressive efficiency for the best midrange shooters of all time, and Lonzo is simply not that (he shot 28% from the same zone last year, and 36% the year before). The end result of this is that while he's shooting a career high TS%, that's still about 5% worse than the league average and only looks set to regress as the midrange shooting does.

His AST% and REB% are the lowest in his career this year. His FTr is the lowest of his career so far this year.

You have to be honest about what Lonzo is at this point, and what his next contract will be for. He is a:

- Good, but not monstrous guard/wing defender (that is, he's not a top 5 defender in the NBA or anything)
- Decent but extremely inconsistent three point shooter off the catch
- Elite secondary passer and ''connector''

Those are his positive traits. Now, is that worth $25m a year? Absolutely not, not a chance. So if you pay him that, you're paying him on the assumption that this ''steeper climb'' will continue but, as I've pointed out, that gradient is far shallower than some might think and certainly not a one-way track; he's regressed in some areas, and it's not like he's been on the up for the past 2 years uninterrupted. He sucked to start last year, then was really good during February, then awful during the bubble, then awful for the first 15 games of this year, now he's being good again in February. What happens when he sucks again in April, do we whiplash back to wanting him gone?

You need to be realistic about what his abilities are and what you're paying him for. If you pay him big money now, you're doing it on the hope that he will one day figure out a way to be worth it, despite having shown no consistency whatsoever in any of his improvements so far. That is, frankly, not worth it.

I'm on record saying - and I will say it again - that I think Lonzo will probably end up being decent, somewhere, in the future. When he's 27 or 28 and has been humbled a bit and is willing to just be late-career Iguodala lite, he'll find a spot in a rotation providing valuable minutes. I don't think that team is here, and I don't want to be paying him $25 million a year to hope.

That, and, again, no need to be a prisoner of the moment. My evaluation of him is based on several years of watching him play and looking at the numbers over that span. The ''we need to pay this guy now!'' takes are based on his recent hot streak that is, evidently - as others have pointed out - not going to last at quite this level. Which is a more reactionary, knee-jerk position?

[Pelicanidae]

The reason we've all those games where Lonzo leads the team in shots...is because BI forced him at the end of the shot clock? Over and over and over again?

Jesus Christ dude think about what you type before you type it.

Especially bad take considering that Ingram is notoriously happy to just 1v1 and ISO in those situations. For better or worse, he does not palm off the responsibility elsewhere.

[Pelicanidae]

Good. This means he’s even more tradable. We may even get an unprotected first at this rate.

Exactly. The value of this recent hot-streak is that it increases his potential trade return, not that it makes him untouchable.

This is like when E'twaun Moore started the 2018-19 season shooting 56% from the floor and 49% from 3 on 4 attempts a game and his box score looked gaudy as hell. It was not a sign that we suddenly needed to max him.

[6warddude]

The reason we've all those games where Lonzo leads the team in shots...is because BI forced him at the end of the shot clock? Over and over and over again?

Jesus Christ dude think about what you type before you type it.

how many games did lonzo have more shots than ingram and zion?...idk but it maybe less then a hand full but context do mean something right?.......

when pelicandae post something to make a point he always post stats and go into detail....but when he or you post the more shot attempt comment..yall dont go into detail about how and why did lonzo have more attempts because it dont fit the petty agenda yall have on lonzo.....im pretty sure if we re watch those games over, im sure what i said about context will prove me right...but forget all of that..

next time lonzo have a game where he has more shot attempts than zion and ingram, im pretty sure pelicandae will make a post about it and you will come behind and make one also....now when that happen, we will go into detail on that thread right after the game as to why did lonzo have more shot attempts....after the facts are posted then we will let the board determine if you and pelicandae comments about lonzo having more shot attempts than zion and ingram are valid criticism or just petty bullcrap......we will revisit this in the future...promise.......nuff said....

[JJackisangry]

Bit more detail for a longer answer:

People need to stop being prisoners of the moment. Lonzo Ball has been a bad player for his career this far. He was not an effective contributor to winning in LA, and he has largely not been an effective contributor to winning in New Orleans so far. This would be acceptable if he had played 50 or 80 career games: he is nearly 200 games in, and four years deep. Showing no consistent improvement by this point is frankly not good enough.

Now, I'm someone who can be wrong - as anyone can be - and I have been before. Quite notoriously on this board, I was extremely unconfident in the idea of BI ever taking the leap, and while he's not flawless he's clearly a very very good NBA player at this point, well deserving of his all-star status. This is a change I didn't see coming, and I happily admit that: in this case, I am very happy to be wrong and to admit it.

I have not, thus far, been wrong about Lonzo. The issues I had with him in LA are still issues here, for the most part. There are some small exceptions - his 3pt shooting has gone from pure fiction to something that exists but only now and then - but most of my concerns two seasons ago are still a concern now.

His driving is still an issue. His FT shooting is still an issue. His complete lack of an in between game is still an issue. His half-court passing/playmaking is still an issue. People say that he's improved at a ''steeper climb than anyone else'' but that's just not really true: he's improved as a shooter, but that's basically it. He's actually declined in some other ways; for example, he's taking a career low percentage of his shots at the rim this year, and is shooting a career low from short-midrange this year as well. His FG% is being buoyed by a frankly unsustainable 57.9% efficiency from long midrange that simply won't hold up: I know it won't hold up as the sample grows because that would be a shockingly impressive efficiency for the best midrange shooters of all time, and Lonzo is simply not that (he shot 28% from the same zone last year, and 36% the year before). The end result of this is that while he's shooting a career high TS%, that's still about 5% worse than the league average and only looks set to regress as the midrange shooting does.

His AST% and REB% are the lowest in his career this year. His FTr is the lowest of his career so far this year.

You have to be honest about what Lonzo is at this point, and what his next contract will be for. He is a:

- Good, but not monstrous guard/wing defender (that is, he's not a top 5 defender in the NBA or anything)
- Decent but extremely inconsistent three point shooter off the catch
- Elite secondary passer and ''connector''

Those are his positive traits. Now, is that worth $25m a year? Absolutely not, not a chance. So if you pay him that, you're paying him on the assumption that this ''steeper climb'' will continue but, as I've pointed out, that gradient is far shallower than some might think and certainly not a one-way track; he's regressed in some areas, and it's not like he's been on the up for the past 2 years uninterrupted. He sucked to start last year, then was really good during February, then awful during the bubble, then awful for the first 15 games of this year, now he's being good again in February. What happens when he sucks again in April, do we whiplash back to wanting him gone?

You need to be realistic about what his abilities are and what you're paying him for. If you pay him big money now, you're doing it on the hope that he will one day figure out a way to be worth it, despite having shown no consistency whatsoever in any of his improvements so far. That is, frankly, not worth it.

I'm on record saying - and I will say it again - that I think Lonzo will probably end up being decent, somewhere, in the future. When he's 27 or 28 and has been humbled a bit and is willing to just be late-career Iguodala lite, he'll find a spot in a rotation providing valuable minutes. I don't think that team is here, and I don't want to be paying him $25 million a year to hope.

That, and, again, no need to be a prisoner of the moment. My evaluation of him is based on several years of watching him play and looking at the numbers over that span. The ''we need to pay this guy now!'' takes are based on his recent hot streak that is, evidently - as others have pointed out - not going to last at quite this level. Which is a more reactionary, knee-jerk position?

It’s hilarious. Only area this season he has improved statistically is at the FT line. Either way we have a whole season to evaluate him or we can kick him out by the deadline. He hasn’t been good enough. Chances are he won’t be good enough by the time we need to renew him. Just as he played a big part in our recent wins, he played a massive part in our losses too. We can’t keep having to rely on a backcourt that inexplicably fractures at any given moment. Onus is on him to prove he belongs.

[Pelicanidae]

It’s hilarious. Only area this season he has improved statistically is at the FT line. Either way we have a whole season to evaluate him or we can kick him out by the deadline. He hasn’t been good enough. Chances are he won’t be good enough by the time we need to renew him. Just as he played a big part in our recent wins, he played a massive part in our losses too. We can’t keep having to rely on a backcourt that inexplicably fractures at any given moment. Onus is on him to prove he belongs.

Exactly and the reality is, unless you see losing him for nothing as an option (I don't) there's very little time to make a decision.

In order for Lonzo to be worth keeping, he would have had to have shown consistently good play so far this year. He hasn't, and now that he's starting to pick things up there simply aren't enough games left before the deadline for him to win me over. He'd have to be a top 20 player in the NBA for the next 6 weeks to change my mind. A random 10 game sample size won't win me over, because I've seen players go on hot streaks for that kind of time period before and then fall back off the face of the planet. This is not my first season watching basketball, I'm not going to be fooled by that. What I need is consistency: Lonzo had the chance to show that, and he didn't. That simple.

[As I See It]

For "S & G's", here are some selected numbers from this year.

Lonzo

Games Played: 19
Minutes Played: 582
Shots Attempted: 230
Free Throws Attempts: 16

Zion

Games Played: 20
Minutes Played: 687
Shots Attempted: 324
Free Throws Attempts: 157

Ingram

Games Played: 21
Minutes Played: 770
Shots Attempted: 392
Free Throws Attempted: 120

Lonzo has taken 162 less RECORDED shots than Ingram; 94 less than Zion. Just Sayin'

[Pelicanidae]

Yeah I think that even saying his FT% is improved is kind of technically correct but not really something you can take any information from.

He's shooting 62.5% from the line this year. That's a career high, up from 56.6% last year.

But he's only taken 16 FTs: he's 10/16 from the line.

That's such a small sample size that if next game he were to drive once and get fouled, and miss both shots, he'd be 10/18 and suddenly be 55.5%, worse than last year.

When dealing with fewer than one per game the sample size is way too small to be stable. Is he an improved FT shooter or has he just not taken many? It seems to be the latter: this is why it's worth pointing out, as I did, that he's shooting a career low free throw rate this year. He's never got to the line really, and this year he's doing it even less than usual.

[Taker597]

Wait till Lonzo actually plays well in meaningful games, but he always choke when we need him to simply be decent to make a run like Bubble Lonzo.

Him playing good now is no different to me than Bledsoe or Harden playing well in the regular season. When they are negative players when you need them most. You're better off moving him. At the end of the day, he's a RFA. ALL we have to do is match.

[tdcreator]

I think everyone likes what Lonzo can be. We see flashes but we need consistency. If he can’t provide that then he needs to go. I would gladly pay 20 million a year for what we saw the last few games, problem is we don’t.

Also to me he is the 4th or 5th guy on decent team and do you give that guy 20-25% of you salary cap?

[Mount Zion]

I think everyone likes what Lonzo can be. We see flashes but we need consistency. If he can’t provide that then he needs to go. I would gladly pay 20 million a year for what we saw the last few games, problem is we don’t.

Also to me he is the 4th or 5th guy on decent team and do you give that guy 20-25% of you salary cap?

Good points. To me, when Lonzo is engaged, aggressive, confident and plays under control, he can be a star. When he has his legs under him and shoots with good form, he can be a good shooter. That player could be worth significant dollars, though not nearly a max deal. But too often he seems disengaged, passive and plays out of control. When he should be creating movement in the offense, he sometimes stops movement in the half court by standing and dribbling. That rarely produces a positive result. So IMO, the sometimes very good, sometimes mediocre and sometimes bad Lonzo isn't worth close to $20 million per year. If that is the neighborhood he's looking for, he needs to be moved.

[msusousaphone]

Wait till Lonzo actually plays well in meaningful games, but he always choke when we need him to simply be decent to make a run like Bubble Lonzo.

Him playing good now is no different to me than Bledsoe or Harden playing well in the regular season. When they are negative players when you need them most. You're better off moving him. At the end of the day, he's a RFA. ALL we have to do is match.

Lol. We ain't had a real meaningful game since he's been here.

[PELICANSFAN]

I would be fine with something similar to what Marcus Smart got, but a little higher (considering it is 2 years later). Smart got 4/$52 million. Something between that and 4/$64 would be ok. Anything north of that is likely an overpay IMO.