I still believe in Oubre. he's from nola too. Ingram should be our SG
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I still believe in Oubre. he's from nola too. Ingram should be our SG
C’mon down Devin Booker
Out of the 5 trades that SB Nation just sent me as a notification the two I liked were Oubre & Markannen. I much rather those guys than Pat Beverley, Norman Powell & Terence Davis, or Dwight Powell & a future pick which were the 3 other trades they through out there.
How much draft capital would we need in return in order to do Lonzo and JJ for Gary Harris?
This is a mistake all human beings make -- think of it as 'giving up on X'
Always flip it. Lets say you bought a piece of exercise equipment six months ago for $200 and never use it. Someone offers you $50 for it. The average human wouldnt sell it. Sunk cost combined with hopes that circumstances will change and the future will be different. But if the person didnt have the piece of equipment and the knowledge they had of knowing they wouldnt use it, they wouldnt choose to buy it for $50 if they found it on sale.
Same with Jax - since he is ours, we have a bias towards him. A hope for him. But if some other team took him in June of 2019 and he looked exactly the same, would he be a target? A non shooting 5 who looked lost on defense...we have the same roster we have now minus him - would he be a guy this board would be begging to trade for? Of course not, and to say we would is dishonest.
Always flip it and it becomes clear
Last edited by MichaelMcNamara; 01-27-2021 at 02:54 PM.
@mcnamara247
Not the same at all unless the team that drafted Hayes doesn't see a future in him. Why would another team trade for Lonzo? Because they see a value in someone that is young and they think they can fix. It goes both ways. Some may not see that it is time to give up on Hayes yet. Satoransky does not swing the needle and Markkanen could be a partial year rental, so why give up Hayes for that?
I am not advocating for that specific trade. I am advocating for the idea that we shouldnt just not trade him because doing so would be "giving up on him"
So, a trade I would do for example is Lonzo and Hayes for Zeller's expiring and Bridges. And my thinking is pretty simple - If I had Bridges and could get Jaxson Hayes for him, there is no way I would make that deal. But when you think of Hayes as "yours" and factor in initial cost and potential to look dumb if you give up on him too soon, and all these other terrible forms of logic, then you are reluctant to make a deal like that.
If you believe in Hayes, cool. I dont. But dont ever resist trading a guy because of the flaws in human logic I listed above.
Sorry...you said "tough to give up on him at this point"
My sole point is to never look at it that way
Many times in the past, I have said there are three players on this team who I would not move -- Zion, BI, and JAXSON (and that did not preclude me from criticizing all three...rather vigorously at times).
Specific to JAXSON....
There is just too much raw talent in JAX (undeveloped talent) for anyone to ignore. I'll admit, to date, he has not lived up to his lottery selection but to say he hasn't shown tremendous improvement from his rookie to sophomore campaigns is just ludicrous. He is probably the least experienced lottery pick in NBA History, but he was picked not because he was a finished product but because his ceiling is 'All Star' high.
Under no circumstance would I include him as a 'throw away' in any trade, simply to get rid of a player we no longer want.
Your analogy doesn't hold. I have a full home gym. I'm not getting the same value out of my Peloton as I would if I only had a Peloton. Further - As a 42 year old with 2 kids, I didn't build out the gym expecting to put 2hrs a day in on full body workouts everyday. But guess why I have $5k worth of gym equipment in my house.... I can afford the flexibility.
My intention when I made the investment very much so matters to whether or not it's valuable.
Now to YOU... sitting at home on your couch, it may seem like I should sell this treadmill because I have a Peloton, all this other equipment, and I'm not using it how you would. But to me, the flexibility and ability to maximize any workout I want to do, when I want to do them, is worth more than selling any one piece for .25 on the dollar.
Unless you understand my intentions and my full plan... you have no way of making an accurate value judgement.
Griff had intention and a plan when he drafted Jaxson. His plan was to redshirt him last year and take the long approach to development - expecting it to pay big dividends by year 3. If those were his intentions, it makes no sense to sell for .25 on the dollar because of someone else's expectations.
Last edited by NMThreeMVP; 01-27-2021 at 06:01 PM.
And his bias and original intention is why he will keep him too long. He will hope that these are all just growing pains. Because that is what he believed when he started the process and what he is incentivized to want to believe.
Being a great GM is about removing all those biases that lead you to the conclusion that just happens to be the one that you want to be true. I agree that he won't sell Hayes for 25 cents on the dollar. Same way he wouldn't sell Frank Jackson last offseason when he got a few solid offers. He believed he would be so much more. Then, eventually reality hits and it is too late and you wish you would've taken that quarter
So you think he got what you'd call "solid offers" for Frank??? lol... but you don't think he'll get solid offers for Lonzo or JJ? Make it make sense! What were these solid offers you think he turned down for Frank, because I think if he had anything he would have traded him. But obviously that doesn't fit the narrative.
A good GM/CEO judges progression towards expectation, with clear timelines and metrics as part of the evaluation. Griff also has Trajan and multiple internal evaluators and perspectives to minimize personal bias.
Now if Griff sees slippage in their metrics or timeline, and isn't acting on it because of his bias... that's when he's failing to be great and risk losing value.
We can debate whether he's done that with Lonzo. That would be a fair debate. When Griff saw slippage from Lonzo in the bubble and drafted Kira, he should have taken maximum value in a trade and moved on. That (and hiring SVG) would be a legitimate beef with Griff. But selling Lonzo too late, doesn't mean you sell Jaxson too soon. It's all about expected progression.
Did anybody mention Eric Bledsoe is also being shopped (allegedly)?
https://clutchpoints.com/pelicans-ru...all-jj-redick/Report: Eric Bledsoe also on trade market with Lonzo Ball, JJ Redick
One day after it was reported the Pels would listen to inquiries for Lonzo Ball and J.J. Redick, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported New Orleans is also open to moving Eric Bledsoe during an appearance on Wednesday’s edition of The Jump.
Windhorst stated the Pelicans are hoping to pave the way for rookie point guard Kira Lewis Jr. and combo guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, which could lead to wholesale changes in the backcourt:
“Yes, and it’s not just those two guys. Eric Bledsoe has also been involved in trade talks, and in a lot of cases, it’s the Pelicans making those calls,” Windhorst said, via Oleh Kosel of SB Nation. “There’s interest there to move out some of the veteran guards to make room for Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis, their first-round draft pick, to get those guys some playing time. The Pelicans are going to be making some changes, I believe.”
I don’t know if I’d give up on Hayes yet. His free throw form looks good and makes me think it could translate to better outside shooting. The thing I so far don’t like about Stan’s offense is the pick and roll. There isn’t any rolls, only picks. We need to get those bigs rolling and give it to them, especially Adams. I think Zion and Hayes can learn to do some pick and pops along with some rolls.
As for keeping Hayes, if he never evolved much more then what he is, he can be a cheap third big.
And all I am saying is to judge "expected progression" with no bias or desire to see one effect over another. And that is hard for a fan to do...now imagine how much harder it is for the GM who drafted him to do. But if Griff hadn't drafted him, and he was the same player on another team, I bet you anything is projection for him wouldnt be as high. Almost every GM who took a kid in the 2019 and 2020 classes still believes their guy will blossom and make a significant contribution for their team. And about 6-8% of those guys will be right.
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