December 29th - New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns - 2-1

[Pelicanidae]

Wheels up for PHX ✈️☀️ #WontBowDown pic.twitter.com/wil7JfiteZ

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) December 29, 2020

The Pels are on the road again, this time to Phoenix. After a grind-it-out, ugly win against the Spurs at home, hopefully this game will be a little more fun to watch, but who knows?

We are 2-1 after three games this year. Last year, we were 0-3 at this point, so I'll take that, especially given who we've played so far: Raptors on the road, Heat on the road, and Spurs at home are not three of the easiest possible games you could have, and we've done alright.

Heading into tonight's game, there are a few obvious things to be concerned about. Devin Booker is Devin Booker, who can drop 40 at any time, and he's actually had some rough shooting to start the year off so variance always swings around and it would be just our luck for him to up his percentages against us. The requirement, therefore, is to maintain some of the good defense we've actually been playing so far and to not give him the easiest night. While our D has been improved somewhat so far this year, that doesn't mean it's been flawless: defending Booker the way we defended Duncan Robinson vs the Heat would not be a good idea, for example.

CP3 is on the Suns now as well, and while he's been having similarly dismal efficiency issues so far, he's also been averaging 9.7 assists per game and playing some really good defense, so it will be interesting to see how he comes out.

Of course, for us what we want to see is Ingram continuing to show all the good stuff he's been showing, for Ball to play like he did last game again, and for Zion to have a bounce back with regards to efficiency while maintaining his defensive improvements. The good sign on that regard is that the Suns start DeAndre Ayton, who has improved a lot as a defender over the last few years but still has huge struggles with physicality on defense and who tends to shy away from contact as a paint protector - with any luck, he's the perfect target for Zion to push around en route to having an efficient night.

Otherwise, let's just hope for a good game and - fingers crossed - a win.

[As I See It]

Somewhat!! smh

[Wecandothis]

Want to take a guess what team is leading the NBA in defense. From one of the worst to the best. Coaching matters.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Pels are #1 in defensive rebounding and in opponent FT ratee. They don't send teams to the line and they don't let them get multiple opportunities. Thats a good start. They still allow a lot of open or wide open 3's (4th most in league)

The team who hit the 3s beat us. The Spurs and Raps missed and we won. I dont think it will be that simple every game but I think we can not watch the game and then go to opponents 3pt shooting in box score most nights and have a good educated guess as to whether we won or lost

[pelafanatic]

Seems as though the defensive strategy is to allow the other teams poor shooters to take 3s (I was thinking this prior to Jake Madison's podcast today. Great listen go check it out)

Let Crowder, Payne, and Ayton launch them. If they make them, they make them. Stick to Booker, Paul, and Bridges.

I'd like to see NAW get some run tonight. The Suns have no one to protect the rim outside of Ayton. Let NAW run some PnR when Hayes is off the floor.

Additionally, a 9 PM game out west, I expect to see deeper rotations tonight.

[Pelicanidae]

Pels are #1 in defensive rebounding and in opponent FT ratee. They don't send teams to the line and they don't let them get multiple opportunities. Thats a good start. They still allow a lot of open or wide open 3's (4th most in league)

The team who hit the 3s beat us. The Spurs and Raps missed and we won. I dont think it will be that simple every game but I think we can not watch the game and then go to opponents 3pt shooting in box score most nights and have a good educated guess as to whether we won or lost

Yeah, that's why I say we're somewhat improved. Yes, there have been obvious improvements, and yes we're currently 3rd in the league in DRtg, but frankly a 3 game sample size is not enough to really make definitive claims on: we're still at the point where one game shooting variance wildly skews the statistics.

[AusPel]

Suns are a great shooting team on paper, so unless BI goes for 45 again imma assume this will be a loss

[luckyman]

They are allowing a lot of open or wide open 3s because maybe they are forcing teams to attempt more of those shots now. I've spoken about this 3 point shooting thing before.

SVG said in an interview a week ago that last year Milwaukee, the #1 team in Def rtg, also allowed the most open 3s. Stan seems fine with replicating that with most teams and so far so good.

[Pelicanidae]

They are allowing a lot of open or wide open 3s because maybe they are forcing teams to attempt more of those shots now. I've spoken about this 3 point shooting thing before.

SVG said in an interview a week ago that last year Milwaukee, the #1 team in Def rtg, also allowed the most open 3s. Stan seems fine with replicating that with most teams and so far so good.

Yeah there's a logic to the strangeness of it.

Basic mathematical abilities will reveal to anyone that the most valuable shot attempt (that is to say, shots that aren't FTs) from the vast vast majority of players are point blank rim attempts. This is because it's not at all unusual for any player, of any position, to shoot 60% or more on those shots, and particularly effective scorers there will regularly shoot 75% or so (see: AD, Capela, etc). So if you take 100 shots right at the rim, and you shoot 65% (just to pick a number that's between the two) you get 65 made baskets, for 130 points, or 1.3 points per shot. By contrast, if you're a league average 3pt shooter, around 36%, and you take 100 shots you make 36 of them, for 108 points or 1.08 points per shot. Therefore, if you're picking one of those shots to concede, probably a good idea to concede the 3 point attempt because taken in large volumes, they hurt less than the rim attempts.

If you can pick one shot profile and deny that completely, then at-rim attempts are the shots to choose.

The wisdom of that strategy is up for debate, but there is a logic to it.

[Rampart]

I know it is only 3 games in but I love the way the team is actually playing up to its slogan of Won't Bow Down. They seem grittier and harder working this year. Of course it's great having Zion on the floor. Ingram is not trying to be a great player, he is being one (granted still developing but there is more confidence this year). In a way , with Jrue leaving it has given him the space to grow as a leader. Adams is a rock keeping things steady and providing the presence we needed especially on defense. The same way last year felt like night/day with not having an unhappy superstar this year feels almost as dramatic a change with people buying into the coach and a hard work, grind it out philosophy. I would be happy just seeing progress but I think it has been even more helpful for the players and coach to have some early success than it is even for the fans. It can be a tough sell to put in the hard work when the results often take awhile. Some early wins gives them something to feed off as they put in the work.

[6warddude]

Suns are a great shooting team on paper, so unless BI goes for 45 again imma assume this will be a loss

BI 35/10/10..get his triple double

ZION 30/8/9..

ZO 17/11/10

thats 82 points for those 3 tonight...hart,,bledsoe,,jj,,adams,,hayes and i guess melli add something to the table,,we got this win tonight.....we should hit the 120 mark tonight..

[pelafanatic]

For those inclined, Zion to score 40 is +2450 tonight. If the Pels can get Ayton into foul trouble early...

[Taker597]

Definitely should be a fun one. Chris Paul looking old, tho.

[Freyfamilyreuni]

I’d like to see:
1. Bledsoe get out of this two game offensive slump of his.

2. Ditto JJ.

3. Lonzo keep driving to the basket and finishing.

4. Zion stop forcing his way into triple teams and get a little more patient with his offense.

[6warddude]

For those inclined, Zion to score 40 is +2450 tonight. If the Pels can get Ayton into foul trouble early...

ayton has been in foul trouble so zion going off tonight is all on zion....got to see how the refs play zion tonight but 30 should be in the bag for zion...

[Pelicanidae]

Something I would note is that Zion's driving rate this season so far has plummeted. He was driving about 8 times a game last year, in around 27 minutes a game. This year, only 5 times a game in 35 minutes a game. It's too early to tell if that's a planned thing or if it's just the circumstances of these particular games, but it's not good overall and I think the lack of time to plan his shots from start to finish, instead having to kind of half-improvise with two feet already in the paint, might be part of some of his impatience early. Hard to drive and kick when you don't get to drive.

[Freyfamilyreuni]

Something I would note is that Zion's driving rate this season so far has plummeted. He was driving about 8 times a game last year, in around 27 minutes a game. This year, only 5 times a game in 35 minutes a game. It's too early to tell if that's a planned thing or if it's just the circumstances of these particular games, but it's not good overall and I think the lack of time to plan his shots from start to finish, instead having to kind of half-improvise with two feet already in the paint, might be part of some of his impatience early. Hard to drive and kick when you don't get to drive.

I think it’s the way the teams have been game planning him. When he gets the ball they pack the paint, making it harder for him to drive to the rim. Until he shows a consistent jumper expect teams to continue to back off and to take his driving lanes away.

[Pelicanidae]

I think it’s the way the teams have been game planning him. When he gets the ball they pack the paint, making it harder for him to drive to the rim. Until he shows a consistent jumper expect teams to continue to back off and to take his driving lanes away.

You don't have to get to the rim for it to count as a drive in the stats. His drive rate being down means that he's not catching the ball outside of the paint and then dribbling into the paint, regardless of what's there when he arrives. When he catches the ball, he's either already in the paint (in which case, his options are massively reduced) or he never gets to the paint at all, which is an issue. It has nothing to do with teams sagging off him, because he's proven in the past that when he does that he can deal with it if he has the opportunity to attack with momentum off the dribble, which he has had very few opportunities to do this season so far due to those above reasons.

Part of that is the lack of off-ball movement we've had at times on offense. The hope is, I think, that that picks up a bit. Particularly, when JJ comes out of his slump he starts dragging defenses around a bit like he generally does in normal seasons. If Melli could start taking and making shots that would also help: right now he's just being ignored, and who can blame them?

[MichaelMcNamara]

The data says that he is scoring at a good rate when he catches it off a pass from a teammate on the move (cut) or already at the rim. When he squares and tries to create his own offense (iso or post possessions), he is shooting under 35% and averages 0.86 points per possession. And it is only that good because he sometimes gets fouled.

When teams see him with the ball before he gets going, they can stop him. He was 2-11 on iso's or post possessions vs SA. Plus had 3 turnovers and 2 of those 8 misses were blocked

But when he catches the ball on the move, he is unstoppable. He gets a half step on a guy, and there is nothing you can do. Even if he only has one move, it will work every time. But when he has the ball at the three point line and drives, literally every person in the arena knows what he is going to do and teams are now ready for it. He needs to develop a pull up, a floater, a spin counter, etc so he isnt so predictable. Otherwise, you will see the FG percentage continue to dip. Remember, he simply didnt miss in the paint last year. But now everyone knows what is coming

[Taker597]

I be hones... I love hearing Ingram talk. He's pretty transparent.

[ragincaucasian]

Why is a pick and roll alley oop not in our repertoire for Zion?

Ala:

[ragincaucasian]

Also don't forget Jaxson Hayes once murdered a man in front of his family with no remorse:

[MichaelMcNamara]

Why is a pick and roll alley oop not in our repertoire for Zion?

Ala:

Because we dont have enough shooters for the help defender to stay out on the perimeter. We almost had one the other night but the help defender left the corner and slmmed down on Zion. We kicked it out to Hart for an open 3 as a result and he missed.

But until you get more shooters on the court, the help defenders will continue to take away Zion

[HornetGuru]

Because we dont have enough shooters for the help defender to stay out on the perimeter. We almost had one the other night but the help defender left the corner and slmmed down on Zion. We kicked it out to Hart for an open 3 as a result and he missed.

But until you get more shooters on the court, the help defenders will continue to take away Zion

Exactly what I was gonna say

[JJackisangry]

I think the result depends on which Reddick and Bledsoe show up tonight. Everyone else can stay relatively the same and we would probably pull this out. I don’t think we can afford to be ice cold as we were against San Antonio, but I don’t expect us to.