That’s why I mentioned tradings back. I’m not certain Okongwu won’t go earlier than 6-7 which is my concern. Williams is obtainable.Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN
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That’s why I mentioned tradings back. I’m not certain Okongwu won’t go earlier than 6-7 which is my concern. Williams is obtainable.
I always thought Maxey would be a high probability if they traded Jrue. Looks like there’s some interest there.
If the Warriors have intentions on trying to make a run this year, they should be drafting Okongwu #2.
Of the commonly discussed ''top 4'' type guys (Okongwu, Ball, Anthony, Hayes), Okongwu is the one who will be ready for playoff minutes in his role first, and it's a role they've been trying to fill for a while now. There will be a feeling out process, there always is, but he's so good at the necessary NBA big man things that he will be easily able to slot in for someone like Kevon Looney or Marquese Chriss and be an improvement on both ends.
If they don't really care about that, and they're confident that Curry + Draymond + Klay will carry any supporting cast, and just want to take a swing on upside then that's a different story, but Okongwu is the guy if they want someone who just slots right in and works.
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 11-12-2020 at 05:25 PM.
Basketball.
Do you mean trading up?
I really feel like decision making is the least discussed draft thing that is actually ridiculously important.
You get a lot of hype every year for prospects who are really bouncy, or shoot it really well in college, or who are really fast in a straight line, who then turn out to be extremely mediocre or even outright bad in the NBA, and a lot of the time the reason for that is that they're an incredibly poor or slow decision maker.
Almost all of the best NBA players are snappy decision makers, and the ones which aren't are incredible at basically everything else. And the improvement you see in young players often isn't really an improvement in their skills as a raw athlete or their technical abilities with handle or layup package or whatever, but is usually a gradual improvement in decision making over time: taking the right shots, moving into space well, knowing when to switch or stick, having positional awareness; the sort of things that build with experience a lot of the time.
If you have two players coming into the NBA at the same time and one is a good but unspectacular athlete, but almost always makes smart reads and good decisions and knows where to be, and the other has a 45 inch vertical but is just cannot make a good choice to save his life, you should very probably choose the former the majority of the time. People make bad choices though.
That's not true at all. It's as harmful as anything playing a player who just isn't ready. They develop bad habits, indecision, and low self esteem.
NAW averaged about the same rookie minutes as Draymond and CJ McCollum. Even Kobe only averaged 15.
Just be patient. Not every rookie needs the 25 mins or the G League to grow.
Sure, I'm not saying it's doomed his career or anythingI just think you have to make a decision and execute it.
Edit: also, you can't just look at rookie mpg and say ''yeah that does it''.
Rookie CJ McCollum, for example, averaged about 13 minutes a game. In that rookie season, he only played in 38 games, and in those 38 games he only played fewer than 5 minutes 6 times. By comparison, NAW played in 47 games, about 13 minutes a game also, but played fewer than 5 minutes 12 times: 9 games more, but double the number of sub-5 minute games, including one where he got a wonderful 38 seconds of playtime.
If NAW averaged 13 minutes a game but actually got 13 minutes every game, that's one thing: he didn't. He had a handful of 30+ minute games that hiked up his average, creating the impression that he actually got 13 minutes a game, when in reality he was more likely to play fewer.
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 11-12-2020 at 06:11 PM.
So there is a major difference if he plays 47 games and plays a paltry 13 minutes in each, versus playing a few games where he's at starter minutes?Sure, I'm not saying it's doomed his career or anything
Edit: also, you can't just look at rookie mpg and say ''yeah that does it''.
Rookie CJ McCollum, for example, averaged about 13 minutes a game. In that rookie season, he only played in 38 games, and in those 38 games he only played fewer than 5 minutes 6 times. By comparison, NAW played in 47 games, about 13 minutes a game also, but played fewer than 5 minutes 12 times: 9 games more, but double the number of sub-5 minute games, including one where he got a wonderful 38 seconds of playtime.
If NAW averaged 13 minutes a game but actually got 13 minutes every game, that's one thing: he didn't. He had a handful of 30+ minute games that hiked up his average, creating the impression that he actually got 13 minutes a game, when in reality he was more likely to play fewer.
Yeah nah bruh.
Again, no, not a major difference and I'm not acting like it's a huge disaster or anything. Just a move that I disagree with. No need to be so over the top about it all.So there is a major difference if he plays 47 games and plays a paltry 13 minutes in each, versus playing a few games where he's at starter minutes?
Yeah nah bruh.
I thought Williams was going to be later in this draft. Didn’t realize he moved up the board so much.
Yeah, a lot of people have him going somewhere between 7-12. He's one of those late risers that happen every year.
I am convinced, through a small amount of inside info and then a good amount of deduction that Patrick Williams is the target.
To me, he was the no brainer pick at 13 for me a few months ago, but other teams ahead of us have started to see what I thought was so clear and now he is going ahead of us.
He just has flashes where you see a guy that does thinks no forward in this draft can do, and none from last years draft outside of Zion can do. The issue is he is a little tight in the hips but Nelson sees that as fixable with certain guys. And if he can fix that over the next year or two and Vinson keeps developing his range (stroke is perfect, he is just much better from 18 than 23), he will be the best forward from these last two drafts not named Zion. If we get #6, I am 90% sure he is the pick
@mcnamara247
Given the rumors of Detroit loving him at 7 and us apparently targeting 6, this makes sense. The key is whether we can find a deal for Jrue that gets us a pick at 6 or higher.
Williams and Maxey please
If this ends up being the two picks, I'm upset that we'll be deprived of a NAW-Maxey-Didi-Williams-Hayes summer league lineup
Last edited by pelafanatic; 11-13-2020 at 09:30 AM.
Well that makes my dream of acquiring Onyeka and Patty certainly a dream now. At least I was right in that department
Cole Anthony says he’s had contact with the Pelicans during the pre-draft process, but no in-person workouts.
— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) November 13, 2020
He has worked out for Washington, Orlando and Miami.
He certainly wouldn't be my first choice, but I don't actually mind the Cole fit on the Pelicans too badly.
Anthony and NAW are similar to me with Anthony having a better first step.
Five days away from drafting Jalen Smith!
BI, Zion, and CJ had a net rating of +3 when on the court together. BI and Zion had a +13.4, BI and CJ had a +13.2, Zion and CJ was just +5.4.
BI and Zion worked. BI and CJ worked. It was CJ and Zion and all three together that didn't work.
I think one of the reasons I warmed so much to Kira Lewis over the course of the year is the effort plays. Like, one of the big reasons I doubted him early was that he's so physically small (not height, frame) and his build isn't the kind of build that adds a ton of muscle really well, so there's obvious strength issues. Outlier strength is one of the clearest signs of NBA potential at the college level, and almost all top tier NBA players are very strong in one way or another (core strength counts, it's not raw muscle mass I'm talking about).
But the more I watch him, the more I just buy the effort. So many times he would gamble on a steal, whiff on it, and just fight back into a play. So many times he'd be muscled past, but stick to it and try to make something happen with his hands. He's never going to be super strong, I'm still fairly sure of that due to his frame, but he can add some strength and if he can even become an average strength guy and keep that effort, the defense will be at least solid. That's a huge thing for me.
Thinking about who would be likely to be on the board when the good teams get to pick, and who they might pick.
The drafting requirements for good teams are a bit different from bad teams. With bad teams, you're trying to nail down guys who could be someone, who have something special to them that could hit if their auxiliaries work out. That's what makes someone like Pokusevski such a promise, and it's what makes people rank LaMelo so highly: they might not be guaranteed guys, but their theoretical ceilings are so high and when you suck you desperately need special talent.
But good teams, who have roads to be good in the future, don't really need that: if you're looking to win a title now, you're all about maximising that title window, not drafting some dude who might theoretically contribute in 5 years. You either don't care about the draft much at all, or you're looking for guys who can actually do stuff, at least during the regular season (to reduce minutes) to fit your team's core.
So here are some good teams and who I think might fit them.
Lakers:
I was gonna do Bucks first but they don't have their picks.
Lakers have #28, which is an interesting one. For me, when I look at them I see a team that really needs someone else who can create to some extent: aside from Lebron, there's basically nobody on the Lakers who can do it consistently in the regular season, and while it's obviously the point to put the ball in LBJs hands, having secondary creators always helps. Someone who isn't a defensively liability could help as well, although there's less of a desperate need for that. I'd be very tempted to go for Malachi Flynn if he's still available for them. He's a bit short, but there's really nothing he's bad at and he's probably the most immediately NBA ready pick and roll operator in this draft. He can shoot as well, off the catch and on self-created shots, which helps a lot. He's older, already 22, but for the Lakers they don't care about that: they'd have him right through his prime anyway, and he could probably contribute at least in a backup role immediately.
If he's not there, which maybe he won't be (he's been trending up recent mocks: ESPN had him #21 in their last mock) then maybe someone like Tyrell Terry, if he's still there, or even just taking someone who is a pretty sure fire bet offensively in Cassius Winston (great shooting prospect, really special shot maker, solid passer) could be a decent option. Again, age, but Lakers shouldn't really care.
Clippers:
Clippers are in a really tough spot. The only pick they have is #57 this year, and what they really need is a point guard. Finding PGs who are likely to be real contributors in the late second round is basically like trying to find a diamond in a raincloud. If he's there, Sam Merrill (who SI mocked at #46 in their last mock) would probably be my pickup. He's 24, which is a huge part of his drop down the boards, and not a fantastic athlete, but again for the Clippers that wouldn't be a concern for me. He's a legitimately great shooter and passer, and has even shown flashes of there being some defense there. While I doubt he's ever a high level NBA player due to his age, I think in the right context there's room for him to be a rotation guard in the NBA which could benefit LAC well. If he had this exact skillset but was 20, he'd be a late first round pick imo. The age tells us that this is probably just how good he is, without a huge amount of growth room: luckily for a team competing like LAC is, that's no issue.
Denver Nuggets:
They have #22 and that's a good spot for them. The way I see it, between Murray and Jokic, they aren't really desperate at the SG or C positions, as well as having reliable backups like Monte Morris in guard spots. Outside of Will Barton and Torrey Craig though, they are a bit thin on the large wing thing. Obviously MPJ is there, but I see him more as a 4 at the NBA level given his defensive difficulties, and speaking of defensive difficulties that's something that Denver needs improvement on. For me, a fairly obvious pick here would be someone like Josh Green if he's still available: I have doubts about the shooting and creation upside that others laud, but he's a legitimate defensive prospect and cuts well. He wouldn't be asked to do too much offensively in Denver, which would maximise his skills. The ESPN mock actually agrees with me here, which is somewhat surprising.
Boston Celtics:
I have no idea what the Celtics are going to do because they have 3 picks in the first round of this draft, and another in the second. I'll just address the later picks, for that reason. #30 is an intriguing one for them. Odds are he'd still be on the board given most mock consensus, so the obvious pick here is Tillman. He basically fits really well into that Theis-style centre thing they have going on where they have really good fundamental defense and utility, but he's a stronger roller and post-guy than Theis which gives them a different look. He might be a bit redundant if they're planning on Grant playing more smallball 5 in the future, though.
As for their pick at #47, it's hard to say really. They don't have any obvious holes to fill, and they're deep enough with roleplayers that they probably won't get any use from any 2nd round pick, especially in the short term. For that reason, I might say they should just take the Killian Tillie swing. He has injury concerns absolutely, but the Celtics don't need him so they shouldn't be putting much weight on him anyway. On the offchance his health does pan out, he's a lottery pick level of talent in this draft, so it's a no-loss situation for the Celtics. If he never plays, who cares, they didn't need him and it cost them nothing but a 47th pick. If he does, it's found money.
That's the end of early morning ramblings.
Lakers pick gone-
Lakers and Thunder have agreement in principle on deal to send Dennis Schroder to Los Angeles, and No. 28 pick in Wednesday's Draft to OKC, sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 15, 2020
Hornets: Jrue Holiday, pick 13, & pick 42
Pelicans: Devonte Graham & pick 3 if Anthony Edwards falls there
C: Hayes or FA
PF: Zion, Melli
SF: Ingram, Hart
SG: Edwards, Redick, NAW
PG: Ball, Graham
I don’t think we will have a chance to draft this high in a long time. So I would swing for the fences to take someone with the most potential available. IMO in this draft Anthony Edwards has the most potential to be a star. Plus he fits a position of need since we have a young core guy at every other spot unless Lonzo isn’t in the long term plans. I like Edwards a lot and think he can be a Donovan Mitchell type of guard. Maybe not at his level, but we wouldn’t need him to be that good. That second unit could be lights out with Graham, Redick, Hart, Melli, & maybe Hayes. Sign us a decent center in free agency and draft a big to compete at 39. Then draft a stash guy with the last pick in the draft. If not Graham then I would take Rozier as well. Either one could be a damn good point guard off the bench and start when needed.
Jrue would not want to go to Charlotte (and not sure why Charlotte would want to trade for him).
And I'm not actually very interested in Antman either. I think the odds of him reaching anything like his ceiling are fairly low due to his issues with focus, effort, and awareness (mental issues often being more difficulty to get over than physical limitations or technique deficiencies) and I wouldn't want to have to pay him the money a top 3 pick gets. Would much rather pick Killian Hayes if I was going top 3
This!!!
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