NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[Pelicanidae]

But there are tons of guys you can say that about. Yet, the comparison is always Lonzo. I believe it is because of their numbers and numbers only. Again, watch the two play. Watch the fire Haliburton plays with. How much he talks to teammates. Lonzo is a dead-eye mute with no fire, no leadership. But yes, they put up similar numbers their final year in college and are 6'5/6'6

I just think it would be comparing Kevin Garnett and Anthony Davis. One was a leader and the heart of a team. The other is ultra talented but brought nothing in terms of leadership and is clearly a Robin, not a Batman.

I have watched the two play, and you are right that Haliburton is a much more intense personality and leader than Lonzo is. Not trying to contest that. I even say in the post you're responding to that comps are bad in general, just that I get why other people are making them.

The difference is that it doesn't matter how much ''fire'' you play with if you can't actually execute the things you're being touted as being able to do. I like Haliburton, he's a clear first round prospect and if he went in the back end of the lottery it wouldn't surprise me. Depending on where he ends up, he could fit in very well as a secondary playmaker, off-ball shooter, defensive prospect.

But people are talking about him like he's a primary and he isn't. Not at the NBA level. Lonzo is the most recent example of a player with superficially similar arcs, and he's a big name, so he's the comparison people are going to make, and while it's obviously imperfect (as, again, all comps are) it's understandable why they're doing it: they are both college primaries with a lot of hype behind them but who will be/are unable to execute that role to a high level in the NBA and will be/are being now looked at as potentially better off-ball wing type players than lead guards to the disappointment of the people who saw them as super high level stars in college. Are there differences? Absolutely yes. Can I see why people make the comparison? Also yes.

[HornetGuru]

The more I watch Patrick Williams the more I think he’s a fantastic fit, but I don’t think he makes it to 13, he’s going top 10. I think we end up landing Poku

[Pelicanidae]

The more I watch Patrick Williams the more I think he’s a fantastic fit, but I don’t think he makes it to 13, he’s going top 10. I think we end up landing Poku

The thing is, every year you get about 15 guys that everyone is convinced is definitely going top 10. Obviously, that's impossible, so inevitably someone every one in the mainstream claimed was going top ten ends up going 14th or something, it's just the law or something.

Might not be Pat Will (who knows, maybe everyone's been playing a big game of chicken around Wiseman and he falls to #18 or something lol) but it's gonna happen to someone.

[GuardianAngel25]

Poku and Pat Williams are my two home run swings at 13. They would be the guys I would be targeting. The other interesting thing about Poku is that you might be able to stash him for a year or two. And when you consider that whoever we take at 13 is very unlikely to play this year, it is appealing to slow the rookie contract clock. Bolmoro is another guy who is appealing to me for that reason if we trade back or if we trade up into the 1st round

Yea IMO Poku is my steal in this draft. I love his ability to play both big positions and can basically compliment anyone especially the bigs we currently have. His main questions are putting on weight and strength!? This is the same question for every 18 year old skinny kid. Get out of here his NBA body in our state of the art program will be ready in the next 2 years. We have one of the best training staffs in the NBA who I trust getting Aleksej “POKU” Pokusevsk to where he needs to be. Poku is one of the perfect players in Stan Van Gundy system. You look at guys like Hedo Turkoğlu who was a near super star their and Ryan Anderson after who was someone we are familiar with that could light it up as well. Poku is almost a mix of these 2 players with much more height, length, versatility, and talent. As just an 18 year old 7’ kid he is the real deal..

[Pelicanidae]

This is the first "I'm different" answer we've heard during the draft interview process so far https://t.co/dz29DNHS44

— VJ (@VJVemu) October 30, 2020

lmao

[harschman]

Thanks!

I think the important thing for draft scouting, whatever approach you take, is to be honest with yourself and what your eyes see and what the data shows. If everyone and their mother is hyping up a prospect but you just don't see it and the numbers don't seem to back it up either, you can't lie to yourself and pretend that you do see it. Sometimes that means you'll end up being right when everyone else was wrong, sometimes it will mean you're wrong when everyone else is right, but doing otherwise would be dishonest.

At the same time, you have to accept that you don't see everything the first, second, or even fifth time and that it's not just okay, but it's good to re-evaluate prospects over time as more data comes up, or as people point out things that you just didn't see before.

Two examples of this during this year for me would be Nico Mannion and Kira Lewis. I was initially fairly high on Mannion: I didn't have him as a top 5 pick or anything, but I thought he was a good prospect for the teens and maybe even the back end of the lottery if things went well for him. But the reality is that his weaknesses got more and more exposed over time and his strengths (off-ball movement, for example) ended up being more secondary than primary, which dropped him from being around 13-18 on my board to being more like 25-35. That's an adjustment I had to make.

Similarly, my earlier view on Kira Lewis was that although he was undeniably fast, his shot didn't seem like it would be reliable enough at the next level for me and his really bad frame makes me worry that his finishing concerns would continue into the NBA. The more I watched him though, and the more I read, the more I realised that the shot does actually seem more viable than I had first thought, and he shows enough team defense upside despite his frame for me to add that as a plus to him. Therefore he jumped up from being around 18-25 on my board to being more like 8-15.

I'm not a data scientist, I don't run algorithms or big simulations, I can't profess to that expertise. All I can do is be honest about what I see, what the data I have available says, trends I see in the NBA, etc, and go with that. Hopefully it helps some people out with their own evaluations (I certainly hope nobody is just taking anyone else's word for gospel) and hopefully I end up being more right than wrong, but that's just how it is.

I ended up creating a spreadsheet to help with maintaining the data.

Have you completed a big board for this draft or are you mainly concentrating on guys the Pels can draft at 13? If so, do you plan on posting it?

[JimmieZ]

This is the first "I'm different" answer we've heard during the draft interview process so far https://t.co/dz29DNHS44

? VJ (@VJVemu) October 30, 2020

lmao

Klutch should have never let him get in front of the camera.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I genuinely feel bad for the teams at the top of this draft. At least in 2013 I liked Oladipo, and while I never thought he would become a superstar, I would have been fine taking him first and paying that salary. In this draft, I would trade the first pick for the fifth. Just straight up. Not even ask for anything in return if it came to that. I would want no piece of the #1 pick. Even guys I like - Okongwu, Haliburton, and Hayes - I wouldnt want to put that pressure on them and I wouldnt want to pay them the salary that comes with the #1 pick. At least the Warriors have a good culture and whoever they draft will be, at most, the 4th most famous guy on the team. So, that kid might have a chance. But no way does the guy Monnesota succeed in MInny

[Pelicanidae]

I genuinely feel bad for the teams at the top of this draft. At least in 2013 I liked Oladipo, and while I never thought he would become a superstar, I would have been fine taking him first and paying that salary. In this draft, I would trade the first pick for the fifth. Just straight up. Not even ask for anything in return if it came to that. I would want no piece of the #1 pick. Even guys I like - Okongwu, Haliburton, and Hayes - I wouldnt want to put that pressure on them and I wouldnt want to pay them the salary that comes with the #1 pick. At least the Warriors have a good culture and whoever they draft will be, at most, the 4th most famous guy on the team. So, that kid might have a chance. But no way does the guy Monnesota succeed in MInny

Completely agree. The #1 pick in a draft like this is just an opportunity to throw away money on a talent that would generally be the #4 or #5 pick in any other year. Awful value.

[Pelicanidae]

I ended up creating a spreadsheet to help with maintaining the data.

Have you completed a big board for this draft or are you mainly concentrating on guys the Pels can draft at 13? If so, do you plan on posting it?

I don't generally like Big Boards because they tend to imply that a person at #10 is definitively 100% better than the person at #11, which may not be the case for a huge number of reasons. But I do group players into rough tiers, and these are my tiers for this year.

Tier 1:
- Anthony Edwards
- LaMelo Ball
- Killian Hayes
- Onyeka Okongwu

Tier 2:
- Devin Vassell
- Isaac Okoro
- Kira Lewis
- Deni Avdija
- Patrick Williams
- Aleksej Pokusevski

Tier 3:
- Tyrese Maxey
- Cole Anthony
- RJ Hampton
- Desmond Bane
- Tyrese Haliburton
- Grant Riller
- Xavier Tillman
- Leandro Bolmaro

Tier 4:
- Theo Maledon
- James Wiseman
- Obi Toppin
- Josh Green
- Precious Achiuwa
- Jalen Smith
- Malachi Flynn
- Nate Hinton
- Both Beys

This is just rough though. There are some I am very unsure about. For example, I'm really unsure if Malachi Flynn should be that low down. Maybe Hampton is further away than I think, and should be tier 4 instead of 3? Onyeka might be the best player day 1 out of the guys in tier 1, but as a non-primary does that knock his value down far enough he should be in tier 2? Hard to say. There's a bunch of these that you could disagree with me on and I'd totally understand it, and if I made the list again tomorrow some of them would probably change.

Happy to answer any questions about it anyone and why they are where I put them, if you're curious though.

[Pelicanidae]

My memory sucks as well so there's probably someone really obvious that I've forgotten to even list.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I don't generally like Big Boards because they tend to imply that a person at #10 is definitively 100% better than the person at #11, which may not be the case for a huge number of reasons. But I do group players into rough tiers, and these are my tiers for this year.

Tier 1:
- Anthony Edwards
- LaMelo Ball
- Killian Hayes
- Onyeka Okongwu

Tier 2:
- Devin Vassell
- Isaac Okoro
- Kira Lewis
- Deni Avdija
- Patrick Williams
- Aleksej Pokusevski

Tier 3:
- Tyrese Maxey
- Cole Anthony
- RJ Hampton
- Desmond Bane
- Tyrese Haliburton
- Grant Riller
- Xavier Tillman
- Leandro Bolmaro

Tier 4:
- Theo Maledon
- James Wiseman
- Obi Toppin
- Josh Green
- Precious Achiuwa
- Jalen Smith
- Malachi Flynn
- Nate Hinton
- Both Beys

This is just rough though. There are some I am very unsure about. For example, I'm really unsure if Malachi Flynn should be that low down. Maybe Hampton is further away than I think, and should be tier 4 instead of 3? Onyeka might be the best player day 1 out of the guys in tier 1, but as a non-primary does that knock his value down far enough he should be in tier 2? Hard to say. There's a bunch of these that you could disagree with me on and I'd totally understand it, and if I made the list again tomorrow some of them would probably change.

Happy to answer any questions about it anyone and why they are where I put them, if you're curious though.

Tier 1 (in this draft, but would be tier 3 of last years draft, in same range as Hunter, White, etc)

Okongwu
Hayes
Avdija
Haliburton

Tier 2

P. Williams
Wiseman
Edwards
Poku

Tier 3

Obi
Cole Anthony
Vassell
Kira
Nesmith
Maxey
Tyrell Terry

Tier 4

RJ Hampton
LaMelo Ball
Isaac Okoro
Jalen Smith
+ About 6-10 others

I think the tier 1 guys on my list have both a high floor and All-Star potential if all goes right. Tier 2 guys have AS potential but could also be terrible or have a Wiggins like impact (numbers, but dont help you win). Tier 3 guys are going to make it in the league. They will get to a 2nd or 3rd contract. Question is whether they become solid starters, fringe starters, or role players. My tier 4 guys can be anything from complete bust to solid starter.

[Pelicanidae]

Just want to agree with MM that in this year's draft, Tier 1 is not a typical Tier 1. Nobody in this draft is tier 1 if you take tier 1 to mean ''Zion'' as a prospect.

Massive disagreement on a bunch of his rankings though. Avdija Tier 1 is utterly bizarre to me, Wiseman Tier 2 likewise. Okoro Tier 4, same principle.

I forgot to rank Nesmith, he'd be in my Tier 4.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Just want to agree with MM that in this year's draft, Tier 1 is not a typical Tier 1. Nobody in this draft is tier 1 if you take tier 1 to mean ''Zion'' as a prospect.

Massive disagreement on a bunch of his rankings though. Avdija Tier 1 is utterly bizarre to me, Wiseman Tier 2 likewise. Okoro Tier 4, same principle.

I forgot to rank Nesmith, he'd be in my Tier 4.

And I feel the same way about you having LaMelo in tier 1. I wouldnt take him if he fell to 13.

What makes the world go round. Two people can look at the same person and see two totally different things. I cant stand LaMelo's game. He is what happens when a generation grows up watching highlights instead of full games

[Pelicanidae]

And I feel the same way about you having LaMelo in tier 1. I wouldnt take him if he fell to 13.

What makes the world go round. Two people can look at the same person and see two totally different things. I cant stand LaMelo's game. He is what happens when a generation grows up watching highlights instead of full games

I don't personally like LaMelo at all, but I can't deny that he has the single highest tier skill out of basically anyone in this class. He's 6'7 and legitimately an incredible passer. Just clearly tiers better than anyone else in the class. If he becomes even an average scorer, his impact offensively would be absurd.

I've written massive quantities about how much I don't like him, but if we're just talking absolutely ceilings, he's clearly got one of the higher ceilings in this class. That said, I would hate to be the team taking that risk and he's probably one of the few names in the draft most likely to get an executive put under heavy fire.

Can you explain to me your Wiseman logic?

[MichaelMcNamara]

I don't personally like LaMelo at all, but I can't deny that he has the single highest tier skill out of basically anyone in this class. He's 6'7 and legitimately an incredible passer. Just clearly tiers better than anyone else in the class. If he becomes even an average scorer, his impact offensively would be absurd.

I've written massive quantities about how much I don't like him, but if we're just talking absolutely ceilings, he's clearly got one of the higher ceilings in this class. That said, I would hate to be the team taking that risk and he's probably one of the few names in the draft most likely to get an executive put under heavy fire.

Can you explain to me your Wiseman logic?

Wiseman could be (if all goes right) 90% prime Dwight Howard or 105% prime DeAndre Jordan IMO. Now....would Dwight Howard be an MVP candidate in 2020 if you brought him in a time machine from 2009? Probably not, but he would definitely be an All-Star and possibly sneak into 3rd team All-NBA.

I have always thought the 'traditional centers are dead' thing was overblown. No, you cant play them against the Warriors death lineup, but that was a once in a generation lineup. You put Wiseman with the right playmaker and he would make a few All Star teams. Like, put him in Dallas and have him rim run and that team is unstoppable. And most importantly, unlike LaMelo, I dont need him to be a leader at that position. My issue with LaMelo is that - if I am going to maximize what you say his elite skill is -- then I also need him to be a leader of my team. To talk to guys and get them in the right spots. To be a coach on the floor, etc. And I dont want LaMelo leading my team....unless I am trying to get the #1 pick the next year. So, if your goal is to tank and get Cade, then I do think taking LaMelo is a brilliant move

[Pelicanidae]

Wiseman could be (if all goes right) 90% prime Dwight Howard or 105% prime DeAndre Jordan IMO. Now....would Dwight Howard be an MVP candidate in 2020 if you brought him in a time machine from 2009? Probably not, but he would definitely be an All-Star and possibly sneak into 3rd team All-NBA.

I have always thought the 'traditional centers are dead' thing was overblown. No, you cant play them against the Warriors death lineup, but that was a once in a generation lineup. You put Wiseman with the right playmaker and he would make a few All Star teams. Like, put him in Dallas and have him rim run and that team is unstoppable. And most importantly, unlike LaMelo, I dont need him to be a leader at that position. My issue with LaMelo is that - if I am going to maximize what you say his elite skill is -- then I also need him to be a leader of my team. To talk to guys and get them in the right spots. To be a coach on the floor, etc. And I dont want LaMelo leading my team....unless I am trying to get the #1 pick the next year. So, if your goal is to tank and get Cade, then I do think taking LaMelo is a brilliant move

So your argument for Wiseman is fairly similar to my argument for Ball. It's that, if everything goes right for them, they could be quite good. Fair enough.

I think Wiseman's defense is going to be massively overrated by block numbers when he's a woeful defender overall (he doesn't seem to understand what a Pick and Roll is, and he's far too eager to jump at fakes), and his lack of understanding of the actual game is going to utterly hamstring him, hence why I rank him so low, but I also understand that you can just as easily say that LaMelo's dreadful efficiency and complete disregard for defense will do the same thing for him. The difference for me, I suppose, is that at least LaMelo has shown his elite skill consistently for years, whereas Wiseman has yet to materialise any of the stuff that's supposed to make him such an incredible upside play. Outside of being quite big, I guess.

[MichaelMcNamara]

So your argument for Wiseman is fairly similar to my argument for Ball. It's that, if everything goes right for them, they could be quite good. Fair enough.

I think Wiseman's defense is going to be massively overrated by block numbers when he's a woeful defender overall (he doesn't seem to understand what a Pick and Roll is, and he's far too eager to jump at fakes), and his lack of understanding of the actual game is going to utterly hamstring him, hence why I rank him so low, but I also understand that you can just as easily say that LaMelo's dreadful efficiency and complete disregard for defense will do the same thing for him. The difference for me, I suppose, is that at least LaMelo has shown his elite skill consistently for years, whereas Wiseman has yet to materialise any of the stuff that's supposed to make him such an incredible upside play. Outside of being quite big, I guess.

Right.....but Wiseman doesnt have to be a leader. LaMelo can not be the teams playmaker and utilize his skills and not be a leader - if you want your team to win.

Its like the difference between a really skilled but immature QB (lets say Jeff George) vs a really skilled but immature Defensive End. The DE just needs to go out there and attack the passer. You dont need him thinking a ton or knowing where everyone else is supposed to be on the field, or lead other men. So, his immaturity doesnt matter 10% as much.

THAT is my issue with Ball and why I dont know Edwards or Wiseman as much for similar issues. When a guy has to be my team leader, I cant have the immaturity or the lack of willingness to sacrifice.

[Pelicanidae]

Right.....but Wiseman doesnt have to be a leader. LaMelo can not be the teams playmaker and utilize his skills and not be a leader - if you want your team to win.

Its like the difference between a really skilled but immature QB (lets say Jeff George) vs a really skilled but immature Defensive End. The DE just needs to go out there and attack the passer. You dont need him thinking a ton or knowing where everyone else is supposed to be on the field, or lead other men. So, his immaturity doesnt matter 10% as much.

THAT is my issue with Ball and why I dont know Edwards or Wiseman as much for similar issues. When a guy has to be my team leader, I cant have the immaturity or the lack of willingness to sacrifice.

The issue is of course is that the very fact that Ball would be a leader in a perfect scenario is exactly what makes his ''everything's gone right'' ceiling so much higher than someone like Wiseman's. Primary initiators and lead ball handlers are simply more valuable than rim running bigs. So if both players hit their absolute max outcome, where LaMelo is like 80% of James Harden and Wiseman is 105% of DeAndre Jordan, LaMelo will be more valuable because of the role he plays on court.

In reality I don't think it's very likely that either hit their ceilings (which is why I would not personally draft LaMelo anyway near the top 5, even if I recognise he has that max upside), and I think more realistic outcomes for the two are fairly low. Not sure who I would compare LaMelo to (again, player comparisons are bad) but Wiseman has much more of a Hassan Whiteside feel than a Prime Dwight feel to me.

I can't speak to the value of the NFL comparison because I don't watch the NFL and I don't understand it. Just gotta take your word for that.

[MichaelMcNamara]

The issue is of course is that the very fact that Ball would be a leader in a perfect scenario is exactly what makes his ''everything's gone right'' ceiling so much higher than someone like Wiseman's. Primary initiators and lead ball handlers are simply more valuable than rim running bigs. So if both players hit their absolute max outcome, where LaMelo is like 80% of James Harden and Wiseman is 105% of DeAndre Jordan, LaMelo will be more valuable because of the role he plays on court.

In reality I don't think it's very likely that either hit their ceilings (which is why I would not personally draft LaMelo anyway near the top 5, even if I recognise he has that max upside), and I think more realistic outcomes for the two are fairly low. Not sure who I would compare LaMelo to (again, player comparisons are bad) but Wiseman has much more of a Hassan Whiteside feel than a Prime Dwight feel to me.

I can't speak to the value of the NFL comparison because I don't watch the NFL and I don't understand it. Just gotta take your word for that.

See - I dont think there is a world in which LaMelo can be a leader for a team. Thats my point. That is a skill that I dont think can be 'developed' -- you can go from a good leader to a better one, but the way he sees life, sees the game, etc....that kid has no shot at being a leader of men. Same with Edwards, but I can think of volume scorers who werent leaders and didnt need to be. I cant think of successful teams where the lead playmaker, point guard with the ball in their hand a ton, etc wasnt a leader. Wasnt mature, played like an idiot, etc.

And if he doesnt have the ball in his hands a ton, how does he provide value? So...its a catch-22. Either he has the ball a ton and he has to be a leader (which I say he cant be) or he doesnt have the ball a ton, doesnt have to be a leader, but then what value does he have?

[Pelicanidae]

See - I dont think there is a world in which LaMelo can be a leader for a team. Thats my point. That is a skill that I dont think can be 'developed' -- you can go from a good leader to a better one, but the way he sees life, sees the game, etc....that kid has no shot at being a leader of men. Same with Edwards, but I can think of volume scorers who werent leaders and didnt need to be. I cant think of successful teams where the lead playmaker, point guard with the ball in their hand a ton, etc wasnt a leader. Wasnt mature, played like an idiot, etc.

And if he doesnt have the ball in his hands a ton, how does he provide value? So...its a catch-22. Either he has the ball a ton and he has to be a leader (which I say he cant be) or he doesnt have the ball a ton, doesnt have to be a leader, but then what value does he have?

Sure but you could easily just turn around and equally say that players generally don't just develop feel for the game (also true) out of nowhere and that if Wiseman has no natural sense of really anything at this point, that the odds that he figures it out on a high enough level to be functionally distinguished from any number of interchangeable bigs is relatively low. Therefore placing him on such a high tier is equally as risky as doing so for LaMelo.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I dont need my lob catcher to have feel for the game. JaVale McGee has won multiple titles.

That's what I keep coming back to. Yes, I think Wiseman can be equally as dumb and boneheaded. But a play finisher doesn't have to have the intangibles a play creator does. I wish you knew football because my QB and DE analogy was perfect

[Pelicanidae]

I dont need my lob catcher to have feel for the game. JaVale McGee has won multiple titles.

That's what I keep coming back to. Yes, I think Wiseman can be equally as dumb and boneheaded. But a play finisher doesn't have to have the intangibles a play creator does. I wish you knew football because my QB and DE analogy was perfect

It would help, then, if Wiseman could finish lobs.

That's being facetious but honestly for a ''lob finisher'' to be the primary role of a guy in tier 2, and for them to actually have a history as long as Wiseman's of being actively quite bad at finishing lobs (he was okay at college but he was pretty terrible at it in pre-college sample), that's not a lovely projection.

[AusPel]

Isn't Hayes gonna be a rich man's Javale?

[MichaelMcNamara]

Isn't Hayes gonna be a rich man's Javale?

Maybe, but thats not what Griff envisioned when he took them. They are hoping more for a longer Ibaka - can protect the rim and finish around it, but also be able to step out and knock down a J, maybe even a 3 eventually