NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[Pelicanidae]

I think a lot of non-professional scouts fall into the trap of having what I'd call "short-termitis" for prospects they already don't like, and "long-termitis" for the ones they do.

Be consistent. This is all about what they project to be 3 - 5 years removed from college/overseas. Both physically and skill wise. Not copy/paste where they are now.

I think that a lot of scouts, professional and non-professional, consistently show a bunch of really dodgy signs. The best guys aren't flawless, but they're usually aware of the flaws they tend to make and often will be upfront about them.

Aside from the issue you describe (which is basically just a mix between moving the goal posts and special pleading), these are some pretty common ones:

- Aestheticism: A lot of people, whether scouts or just people interested, tend to make the mistake of confusing their aesthetic preference for efficacy. It's fairly common to see people love mind-blowing handles, even if they don't produce much of an impact on the defender, or for people to love super deep shooting prospects even if they're not that good at it: they just enjoy the visual of people taking that shot.

- Highlight Clip Syndrome: For me, it usually takes a good 5 games to get what I call a ''decent'' grasp of a prospect, and I usually try to wait until 8 or 9 before making strong judgements. Some people watch a 12 minute highlight clip on YouTube and consider themselves an expert: obviously this is more of a casual fan issue than a professional scout one.

- Stubbornness: A lot of people come to views early in the draft process, or even pre-draft sometimes, and just refuse to change their mind as evidence mounts up. It's healthy and important to accept new information and change your mind. For example, early in the season I had Nico Mannion in the teens or even late lottery for a variety of reasons, but as the season wore on it became clear that his finishing problems were worse than I had thought and his shot didn't quite show up off the dribble how I liked. So I've dropped him into the mid 20s. Gotta be willing to change your mind.

- Body Shape Judgments: So many people look at a player who looks good and make judgements from there, ignoring the game. You see people saying ''ah but he's 6'8, 220lbs, and a ball handler!'' and it's like yeah but is he any good at that ball handling or is he just on a team that's letting him do whatever?

- Team considerations: Some teams in college make players look better at some things than they are, and other teams make them look worse. Kentucky tends to suppress almost everyone truly great, whereas FSU tends to make people look like better defenders than they are. Think: are you evaluating a prospect's abilities, or are you evaluating the prospect's individual performance within this singular team context?

These are just some examples, there are more.

[Pelicanidae]

2023
- Victor Wembanyama
- Emoni Bates
- Yannick Nsoza
- Amari Bailey
- Jalen Duren

Just a little detail on Yannick Nzosa, since he's currently playing in the ACB (Oh hey that's the league Doncic played in pre-NBA, neat) at the age of 16.

He's a Centre. He's 16, he currently weighs 180lbs, ish, at 7'0 tall.

In 4 games so far, he's averaging 14.3pts, 6.2rbds, 1.8asts per 36. 3.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per 36.

Currently has a block percentage of 15.9% and a steal percentage of 5.2%. His TS% is 93.7.

16 years old, 180lbs, playing centre against grown men in the same league Doncic came out of. Promising!

[fullcourtpress]

So, Bane is unquestionably the better player and the lone reason Nesmith will be taken higher is because of the "hype"

Well, yeah, when you set up the framework like this, then of course you take the better player at the lower pick. Impossible to debate when thats the setup

I just cant get over Bane's wingspan... or lack thereof. He's like tyrannosaurus rex

[Pelicanidae]

I just cant get over Bane's wingspan... or lack thereof. He's like tyrannosaurus rex

Other NBA players with negative wingspans:

- Yao Ming
- JJ Redick
- Kelly Olynyk
- Tyler Herro

[Taker597]

Other NBA players with negative wingspans:

- Yao Ming
- JJ Redick
- Kelly Olynyk
- Tyler Herro

That's really just make it more valid to not waste a pick on him. On top of that, Bane is athleticism makes him borderline not a 1st round value for me. If we are at 13th-18th and the two prospects that we got is Nesmith and Bane. Nesmith every single day of the week. Your dislike for Nesmith is becoming irrational like he called your mother ugly or something.

[Pelicanidae]

That's really just make it more valid to not waste a pick on him. On top of that, Bane is athleticism makes him borderline not a 1st round value for me. If we are at 13th-18th and the two prospects that we got is Nesmith and Bane. Nesmith every single day of the week. Your dislike for Nesmith is becoming irrational like he called your mother ugly or something.

It's not a huge dislike lol, I just think he's not worthy of the hype. If it was Josh Green that the board was constantly drooling over instead of Nesmith, If be talking about him instead.

In any case, I'm not really sure how that list of good-to-very-good NBA players is a reason not to draft someone. There are other players with negative wingspans (some of whom were/are not good, sorry Svi Mikhailyuk) but the point of that list is that it shows that having a negative windspan is not, in itself, a deal breaker.

For example, I would much rather draft someone with a negative wingspan but who knew what they were doing over an albatross who doesn't understand the game whatsoever. Hassan Whiteside has a wingspan that can blot out the sun and he's a liability anyway because he's a low effort, low IQ player. By comparison, someone like Jimmy Butler has a wingspan less than 0.5 inches larger than his height but is a tenacious defender because of his high awareness and effort.

[MichaelMcNamara]

My personal tiers, based on what I would give up/use on them:

Tier 1: Would give up 13 and two future protected 1sts

K. Hayes, Okongwu, and Avdija

Tier 2: 13 and a ton of 2nds or a future protected 1st

Nobody

Tier 3: Would use 13, but they wont be there

Haliburton, Vassell, Wiseman, Edwards

Tier 4:Would use 13 to draft

Patrick Williams, Jalen Smith, Kira Lewis, Aaron Nesmith, Poku, RJ Hampton

Tier 5: Would be interested in using late teens/20s pick if we move back or move up from 2nd round, add a pick in trade, etc

Tyrell Terry, Leandro Bolmoro, Paul Reed, Tyrese Maxey, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji

Tier 6 - 2nd Round Targets to make contributions in next year or two

Xavier Tillman, Payton Pritchard, Grant Riller, Devot Dotson, Malachi Flynn, Tyler Bey, Mamadi Diakite

Tier 7 - 2nd round picks to stash and maybe get something out of in a few years. Flyers.

Jahmi'us Ramsey, Yam Madar, Kenyon Martin, Jr. Paul Eboua, Josh Hall, Lamine Diane

[Pelicanidae]

There is nobody in this draft that I would give up 3 firsts for.

Interested in your take on Ball, MM. You didn't list him there, so I'm assuming you don't value him particularly highly.

Also, what's your view on Haliburton's probably role in the NBA?

Big support for listing Lamine Diane, who is extremely fun.

[MichaelMcNamara]

There is nobody in this draft that I would give up 3 firsts for.

Interested in your take on Ball, MM. You didn't list him there, so I'm assuming you don't value him particularly highly.

Also, what's your view on Haliburton's probably role in the NBA?

Big support for listing Lamine Diane, who is extremely fun.

I wouldnt take Ball at 13. I think he eventually has a decent career, but I think his first team will be massively, massively disappointed.

Skill wise - awesome at some things. But I want my distributors to be hard workers, accountable, willing to sacrifice, dive on the floor, etc. LaMelo is not that. I wouldnt touch him. But I'd take a look when he is 25 or 26 after he has bounced around and been humbled.

Haliburton is a guy who -- if he goes to the right place, he has a Mike Conley like career. Wrong place and he tries to do too much and is inefficient. And I think a team with Zion and Ingram is the right place. I think he would fit awesome with them long term. He wouldnt have to be the primary creator all the time, would have great finishers who run the court, and likely good spacers to hit when he gets teams to collapse.

As for "three first rounders" -- I think if they are all lotto protected or even top 10 protected or even picks in this draft (say we trade Jrue and get 19 in the deal and so its 13, 19, and a future lotto protected 1st)..... those picks are worth giving up if you know a guy can be a core piece with Ingram and Zion. And I believe in those 3 guys and love their fit with Ingram and Zion.

The whole point of getting picks in trades was to have the ability to trade a bunch of them for a core piece. And I believe those 3 guys would be. And where the Pelicans are picking this year and will be picking in future years -- history says you have a very small chance of landing a long term core piece. When you do, yes its awesome and catapaults your franchise forward. But for every Giannis and Bam, there are 12-15 guys who really dont do anything for the team who took them in the 11-30 range

[Pelicanidae]

I wouldnt take Ball at 13. I think he eventually has a decent career, but I think his first team will be massively, massively disappointed.

Skill wise - awesome at some things. But I want my distributors to be hard workers, accountable, willing to sacrifice, dive on the floor, etc. LaMelo is not that. I wouldnt touch him. But I'd take a look when he is 25 or 26 after he has bounced around and been humbled.

Haliburton is a guy who -- if he goes to the right place, he has a Mike Conley like career. Wrong place and he tries to do too much and is inefficient. And I think a team with Zion and Ingram is the right place. I think he would fit awesome with them long term. He wouldnt have to be the primary creator all the time, would have great finishers who run the court, and likely good spacers to hit when he gets teams to collapse.

As for "three first rounders" -- I think if they are all lotto protected or even top 10 protected or even picks in this draft (say we trade Jrue and get 19 in the deal and so its 13, 19, and a future lotto protected 1st)..... those picks are worth giving up if you know a guy can be a core piece with Ingram and Zion. And I believe in those 3 guys and love their fit with Ingram and Zion.

The whole point of getting picks in trades was to have the ability to trade a bunch of them for a core piece. And I believe those 3 guys would be. And where the Pelicans are picking this year and will be picking in future years -- history says you have a very small chance of landing a long term core piece. When you do, yes its awesome and catapaults your franchise forward. But for every Giannis and Bam, there are 12-15 guys who really dont do anything for the team who took them in the 11-30 range

Yeah I'm not against trading 3 firsts just flat out and overall in any case. There are plenty of moves I would make where 3 picks got moved around: they just wouldn't be for anyone in this class.

I'm extremely sceptical of Haliburton's potential as a primary at the NBA level in any practical sense. He has more than a little of the Lonzo Ball problems around him: sub-par handle, unimpressive finisher, very little wiggle off the dribble, can't seem to really beat anyone. He's a better shooting projection, but still.

I largely agree about LaMelo. He's got some outstanding, outlier skills but I think he's far worse at the bad things than many commentators are willing to talk about.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think Haliburton could be like Brogdon - who cant blow by people. Isnt a pure one or a pure two. Not the best handle in the world. But he finds ways to score. He gets his teammates good shots. Can play on ball, has to be respected off ball.

And Brogdon's efficiency is tied to who is on the court with him. When he has other guys who can bend and break the D and/or guys who demand multiple defenders when they roll, he is insanely efficient. When Indy got hurt and he had to do a lot more heavy lifting, he was way less efficient. I think Haliburton is very similar. People always bring up Lonzo because of height, some stat similarities, etc. I see more Brogdon.

[Pelicanidae]

Brogdon was never insanely efficient even in Milwaukee, outside of his final season there. The first two were just okay, and then of course this year for various reasons he was downright poor overall. Even his at-rim finishing plummeted in efficacy, although as you say, there are reasons for that beyond just his own skillset.

I suppose my view of a Haliburton draft would depend on who else was still on the board. I don't view him highly as a primary and I don't think he has much in the way of boom upside potential, so if there was someone there still that I did value more highly in either of those ways, I would rather take them. Not a horrible prospect by any means but 13 seems a bit of a reach, for me.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Role players, even the top quasi all star ones, are their environment IMO. I think very few NBA players are good regardless, bad regardless. Very few are unable to transcend several different kinds of roles. I dont think thats a knock on Haliburton, or most guys for that matter. Draymond Green plays with great players and he is an All Star who gets a max contract or close. On a bad team, he was a guy who wouldnt be worth 8 mil a year

Almost every guy in this draft will be dependent on the situation they end up in. If I were a Pistons fan, I wouldnt want Haliburton. As a Pels fan, I would happily take him

[Pelicanidae]

I think that the right team for Haliburton already has a reliable primary initiator on it. The Pelicans do not have that right now.

It's trivially true that roleplayers are often highly dependent on their circumstances, yes.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I am building a team with the idea of who 2024-2029 Ingram and Zion will be. And if they arent creating a high percentage of the offense by then, none of this matters anyway.

You dont draft 19 year olds to solve current problems. You project what you will need (and not need as much) in 3 or 4 years and draft the guys who help that. I want Ingram to be better shooting Jimmy Butler (with regard to his usage, his amount of time with the ball and without it). I want Zion to be Giannis-like or at the very least Blake Griffin when CP3 was off the court/gone. If you had those two guys, you wouldnt want a primary creator. You would want combo guards, shooters, etc.

You have to project forward with Zion and Ingram when making this pick. Not solve current problems, because truth is that this guy will barely play at all this year

[Pelicanidae]

I am building a team with the idea of who 2024-2029 Ingram and Zion will be. And if they arent creating a high percentage of the offense by then, none of this matters anyway.

You dont draft 19 year olds to solve current problems. You project what you will need (and not need as much) in 3 or 4 years and draft the guys who help that. I want Ingram to be better shooting Jimmy Butler (with regard to his usage, his amount of time with the ball and without it). I want Zion to be Giannis-like or at the very least Blake Griffin when CP3 was off the court/gone. If you had those two guys, you wouldnt want a primary creator. You would want combo guards, shooters, etc.

You have to project forward with Zion and Ingram when making this pick. Not solve current problems, because truth is that this guy will barely play at all this year

I'm not convinced Ingram is still on this team in 4+ years time. As far as I'm concerned, we are still in acquire talent mode, not ''start tailoring the roster'' mode. I project forward with Zion in mind, since he's the guy I'm absolutely convinced will still be here in 5, 6 years. Other than that, my projections are very fluid, and in circumstance I want to acquire the guys who I think are likely to either have the most value later down the road for trade purposes, or who are most likely to pan out and be the best players.

[msusousaphone]

Just a little detail on Yannick Nzosa, since he's currently playing in the ACB (Oh hey that's the league Doncic played in pre-NBA, neat) at the age of 16.

He's a Centre. He's 16, he currently weighs 180lbs, ish, at 7'0 tall.

In 4 games so far, he's averaging 14.3pts, 6.2rbds, 1.8asts per 36. 3.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per 36.

Currently has a block percentage of 15.9% and a steal percentage of 5.2%. His TS% is 93.7.

16 years old, 180lbs, playing centre against grown men in the same league Doncic came out of. Promising!

THIS should be right around the time we can start "winning" the AD trade. Especially if Bron or AD pick up an injury or three in 2022.

[Pelicanidae]

THIS should be right around the time we can start "winning" the AD trade. Especially if Bron or AD pick up an injury or three in 2022.

Yeah, there's a ton of very very high level prospects coming up over the next 3 years or so, Nzosa being one of them. Wembanyama is the best of them probably, but he's been getting a lot of hype over the last week, so he won't be a ''best kept secret'' for long lol

[PELICANSFAN]

I'm not convinced Ingram is still on this team in 4+ years time. As far as I'm concerned, we are still in acquire talent mode, not ''start tailoring the roster'' mode. I project forward with Zion in mind, since he's the guy I'm absolutely convinced will still be here in 5, 6 years. Other than that, my projections are very fluid, and in circumstance I want to acquire the guys who I think are likely to either have the most value later down the road for trade purposes, or who are most likely to pan out and be the best players.

It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.

[Pelicanidae]

It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.

I've seen Shamit argue before that Ingram feels like a Derozan type player, where he's very good but not quite on the level required to really be part of that championship core with his playstyle and usage, and ends up being used in a trade to acquire the guy who is.

Obviously that could be wrong, which is why I didn't say that I *am* convinced that he will *not* be here, just that I'm not convinced entirely that he will be.

[luckyman]

It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.

BI could win this franchise 2 straight titles, and you know who would be like ..."we should trade him now he will never win a 3rd. And his at -the-rim % fell last year."

[MichaelMcNamara]

I've seen Shamit argue before that Ingram feels like a Derozan type player, where he's very good but not quite on the level required to really be part of that championship core with his playstyle and usage, and ends up being used in a trade to acquire the guy who is.

Obviously that could be wrong, which is why I didn't say that I *am* convinced that he will *not* be here, just that I'm not convinced entirely that he will be.

Its funny how our current evaluations are often partly clouded by our past ones. Shamit often admits his tendency to do this with Ingram. We are all guilty of it. I will admit I still don't see Luka as the future of the league, largely because of my initial evaluation.

But regardless of our opinions, Griff is head over heels for Ingram. He believes he is as much of a core pieceas Zion and can lead the league in scoring one day. And if you listen to SVG on Lowes pod, he feels pretty similar.

Those two are the core and SVG will build the offense around them and they will be asked to create more and more each year

[Pelicanidae]

BI could win this franchise 2 straight titles, and you know who would be like ..."we should trade him now he will never win a 3rd. And his at -the-rim % fell last year."

We were having a normal conversation where normal questions were being asked and normal explanations were being given. No need to come in being all silly about it.

[Silverfoxx]

Pelicanidae, have you posted your big board for the 13 pick range for the Pelicans? If not, you mind sharing?

Here is mine:

1. Patrick Williams
2. Poku
3. Tyrell Terry
4. Kira Lewis
5. Aaron Nesmith
6. Tyrese Maxley
7. Grant Riller
8. Precious
9. Sadiq Bey
10. Josh Green

[Pelicanidae]

I think I posted a bunch of names I'd be okay with around that spot a while ago but it's probably time for an update. I'll do it when I get to a computer rather than a phone, since I tend to be very wordy lol