Jrue, JJ, and the Overall Path

[MichaelMcNamara]

Lets say these are the 4 types of choices you can make regarding the Pels biggest decisions this offseason. Basically, you are not only making these decisions in a vacuum - you are essentially deciding a timeline and setting next years expectations. What do you choose (remember, these are specifics to fit a general path. Moves can vary within the path)

1. Stay the course, and lock into current players

In this path, you hire Stan Van Gundy and you look to extend Jrue and Hart. Maybe even JJ if the price is right Obviously you re-sign Ingram and you go into next season open minded with Lonzo. You use the MLE for another solid vet between the ages of 27-31, draft BPA and aim for the playoffs while also looking to grow internally by develoing young guys as they hopefully play in meaningful games

2. Stay the course but stay fluid

Same as #1 (including SVG) but you dont extend Jrue or JJ. You go into season hoping to be very competitive but if thats not how it plays out and/or you get blown away by an offer, you trade them (or one of them).

3. Try to win, but with some younger pieces

In this path you can go with a Will Weaver or Kenny Atkinson type, but you move Jrue and JJ for solid but unspectacular picks and some quality players. Think: Jrue to Nets for Levert, Prince, and one or two firsts that land in the 18-25 range most likely. JJ to Philly Mike Scott (release), Zhaire Smith, Furkan Korkmaz and a first or two. Add a vet with MLE for leadership. Lets go with Tristan Thompson in this scenario. You are going for playoffs but are probably not going to make it this year given strength of West unless Zion stays healthy and makes a huge leap

4. Try to win, take on salary, and get even more picks

With this scenario, you can go either SVG or a Will Weaver type. But when you trade JJ and Jrue, you are also gonna take on bad vet long term salary and get more picks for your troubles. So, lets imagine something like a deal or deals that lands Jrue in Denver and JJ + Miller in Philly and the Pels end up with Gary Harris, Al Horford, and something like five 1sts from those two teams - with at least 3 of them being pretty far out in the future so that they can be in your war chest when you try to make your big 2022 or 2023 trade

Note: I am not gonna give the option of the other path (Jrue and JJ being traded for bad players/expirings/non factors and really high picks because Griff aint doing that.

[Darkhorse985]

I think we can do #3 with Kenny Atkinson or SVG. I also like Jrue and JJ to Indiana for Turner, Oladipo on an expiring, and a 1st, if we can get it, as my preferred theoretical trade option right now.

Lineup

PG: Ball/NAW
SG: Oladipo/Hart/Jackson
SF: Ingram/ Nesmith or Bey (13th pick)
PF: Williamson/Melli
C: Turner/Hayes

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think we can do #3 with Kenny Atkinson or SVG. I also like Jrue and JJ to Indiana for Turner, Oladipo on an expiring, and a 1st, if we can get it, as my preferred theoretical trade option right now.

Lineup

PG: Ball/NAW
SG: Oladipo/Hart/Jackson
SF: Ingram/ Nesmith or Bey (13th pick)
PF: Williamson/Melli
C: Turner/Hayes

What if you find out via Oladipo's people that he either wants to be maxed or he is bolting? Still want that deal? Especially when you consider the opportunity cost if you let him walk vs the other deals that could have landed you more picks and/or younger guys for a future trade

Also, FWIW - I think one or both of those guys will be moved from Indy this offseason but they are looking to get younger guys. If we get Oladipo, I think it is more likely Lonzo goes to them than Jrue. Or Jrue goes to a 3rd team (say Nets, who give Indy Levert)

[Darkhorse985]

Even if Oladipo bolts after 1 year, we still have Turner (a true stretch 5 who can defend a 5) on a reasonable contract to play next to Williamson and a 1st. I think that is a better return than LaVert and Dinwiddie. I actually like the idea of trading Jrue to Denver for Harris, MPJ, and a 1st better than a trade with Brooklyn, if Denver would do that. I would only trade Jrue to Denver for MPJ.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Even if Oladipo bolts after 1 year, we still have Turner (a true stretch 5 who can defend a 5) on a reasonable contract to play next to Williamson and a 1st. I think that is a better return than LaVert and Dinwiddie. I actually like the idea of trading Jrue to Denver for Harris, MPJ, and a 1st better than a trade with Brooklyn, if Denver would do that. I would only trade Jrue to Denver for MPJ.

So you have no interest in way further out players to get the right 3rd star when he comes available?

Your path makes us better now, for sure. But I would rather downgrades (Harris and Horford instead of Oladipo and Turner) for two reasons:

1. I want lower usage guys around Ingram and Zion. I want them as clear #1 and 2 options eating up usage and getting reps in all areas. P&R ballhandlers, off ball movers, screening and rolling or popping, iso. Just tons of usage

2. I'd rather have the far out picks to get the right guys at the right time. I want a star. A Booker in 2 or 3 years or D'Aaron Fox when he gets disgruntled, etc.

So, I would take Harris and a bunch of picks over Harris and MPJ, for example. Would take Horford and a ton of picks for JJ and Miller over Taurean Prince for another example

[Darkhorse985]

How many first round picks do you think Philly attaches for us to take on Horford’s contract? I’d rather take on Horford over Harris if 1st round picks were our only compensation. At least Horford fits on this team, and we probably can get a couple decent years out of him. Harris is just a marginal player on a bad contract. I’d trade Jrue to Denver for MPJ only. I’d preferable like to send Jrue to the East. We are not guaranteed a 3rd star from having a couple extra non lottery 1st round picks.

[MichaelMcNamara]

How many first round picks do you think Philly attaches for us to take on Horford’s contract? I’d rather take on Horford over Harris if 1st round picks were our only compensation. At least Horford fits on this team, and we probably can get a couple decent years out of him. Harris is just a marginal player on a bad contract. I’d trade Jrue to Denver for MPJ only. I’d preferable like to send Jrue to the East. We are not guaranteed a 3rd star from having a couple extra non lottery 1st round picks.

I dont see the fit with MPJ. Grabbing talent isnt always the answer. It has to be talent that fits and I see no way MPJ fits with Ingram and Zion. Not to mention how scary it would be to give him that next big contract knowing he and his whole family's injury history. No thank you

I think you get 3 picks from Philly on a JJ for Horford swap. #21 this year (which I look to package to move up to 6-9 range) and two future picks. JJ is worth more than #21 in this draft, so its like 1.25 or 1.5 for him, and then 1.5 -1.75 picks for them to offload Horford's deal

As for which conference to move Jrue to -- I couldnt care less. He is not a guy that I think would scare me one bit when it is our time to be contenders. Move him to whoever gives the best package. Heck, I like him out West the next few years to help try to beat the Lakers

[Darkhorse985]

I dont see the fit with MPJ. Grabbing talent isnt always the answer. It has to be talent that fits and I see no way MPJ fits with Ingram and Zion. Not to mention how scary it would be to give him that next big contract knowing he and his whole family's injury history. No thank you

I think you get 3 picks from Philly on a JJ for Horford swap. #21 this year (which I look to package to move up to 6-9 range) and two future picks. JJ is worth more than #21 in this draft, so its like 1.25 or 1.5 for him, and then 1.5 -1.75 picks for them to offload Horford's deal

As for which conference to move Jrue to -- I couldnt care less. He is not a guy that I think would scare me one bit when it is our time to be contenders. Move him to whoever gives the best package. Heck, I like him out West the next few years to help try to beat the Lakers

I agree that MPJ is a questionable fit next to Zion and Ingram unless you play a large percentage of small ball with Zion at the 5, Ingram at the 4, and MPJ at the 3, but he is the best talent of any of the previously mentioned players. If you are talking fit of young vets who can help improve this team now, then the Indiana deal makes the most sense. Brooklyn 2nd, but LaVert doesn’t have the ceiling of MPJ or the rare unique fit of Turner as a stretch 5 who can still defend a 5. Neither LaVert or Oladipo are great shooters which really will be a need for this team if we move JJ.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I agree that MPJ is a questionable fit next to Zion and Ingram unless you play a large percentage of small ball with Zion at the 5, Ingram at the 4, and MPJ at the 3, but he is the best talent of any of the previously mentioned players. If you are talking fit of young vets who can help improve this team now, then the Indiana deal makes the most sense. Brooklyn 2nd, but LaVert doesn’t have the ceiling of MPJ or the rare unique fit of Turner as a stretch 5 who can still defend a 5. Neither LaVert or Oladipo are great shooters which really will be a need for this team if we move JJ.

Again, you keep comparing options that I dont want. I am not advocating for any of these. I think they are all far below my preferred option of lesser usage vets who are solid on bad contracts with a ton of picks to use for that future trade for a good fitting 3rd piece

Also, I dont know if you have watched Turner a lot or you just see a 7 footer who shoots 3's and blocks shots on a stat sheet. If you watch him play, you will quickly see that his stats dont indicate the actual player he is on the floor. Not a fan of him either, especially at a position that I think should be a mercenary position unless its a very, very unique player

[PeliKhan]

Id love to extend Jrue for the right price. Something like 18-20 a year.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Id love to extend Jrue for the right price. Something like 18-20 a year.

I probably should have put a realistic price in the OP. I assumed most would know. It wouldn't be anything close to 18-20. Think more like 3/80 or 4/100 type range

[Darkhorse985]

I doubt we get 2 first round picks from any team much less 3. I think that expectation is unrealistic. When is the last time a NBA team traded multiple 1st picks for a non-superstar player, much less trading 3 1st round picks for a team to take on a bad contract? Maybe we get 2 low end firsts for Jrue if we get mediocre players in return like Dinwiddie, Allen, Musa, and 2 1sts for Jrue. I wouldn’t do that trade, btw.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I doubt we get 2 first round picks from any team much less 3. I think that expectation is unrealistic. When is the last time a NBA team traded multiple 1st picks for a non-superstar player, much less trading 3 1st round picks for a team to take on a bad contract? Maybe we get 2 low end firsts for Jrue if we get mediocre players in return like Dinwiddie, Allen, Musa, and 2 1sts for Jrue. I wouldn’t do that trade, btw.

Its actually pretty common for teams to give up one or two firsts to offload a bad contract. Most of them non nearly as bad as Horfords

Also, all first round picks are not created equal. 21st pick in a bad draft and two future 1sts from a franchise who thinks they will be a higher seeded playoff team at the very least for the next half decade to decade.....yes that is technically three firsts but would be the equivalent of on good 1st or one and a half late lotto firsts

[Darkhorse985]

Its actually pretty common for teams to give up one or two firsts to offload a bad contract. Most of them non nearly as bad as Horfords

Also, all first round picks are not created equal. 21st pick in a bad draft and two future 1sts from a franchise who thinks they will be a higher seeded playoff team at the very least for the next half decade to decade.....yes that is technically three firsts but would be the equivalent of on good 1st or one and a half late lotto firsts

Yes I have seen one first pick traded for another team to take on a bad contract, but I have not seen multiple stretching years into the future like you propose in quite some time. I think 1st rounders will be viewed as much more valuable assets over the next few years, especially with the NBA losing a lot of profit this year and next for sure.

So, I don’t think the #4 option you propose and advocate will help this team significantly. It is probably the most unrealistic option based on too many assumptions. You assume teams will give multiple firsts for the Pelicans to take on a bad contract, and you assume that multiple low end 1st first round picks will somehow land a 3rd all star to join Zion, and Ingram.

[Taker597]

Due to the revenue ramifications, I'd expect a lot of team including us to be pretty conservative with no long term commitments. I think our only bet is to acquire picks from lottery team to take on contracts.

Zion ain't going to be hitting his prime for another 5 years. Don't see the need to rush and make moves.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Due to the revenue ramifications, I'd expect a lot of team including us to be pretty conservative with no long term commitments. I think our only bet is to acquire picks from lottery team to take on contracts.

Zion ain't going to be hitting his prime for another 5 years. Don't see the need to rush and make moves.

People said the same in other sports and still record deals were handed out in the offseason. I think what we might see is the gap get bugger between top tier players and average guys. Maybe the guy who would've got full MLE in the past gets half that or the 14 mil guy gets the MLE. But the needle movers will get long term commitments and the franchises who think they have a shot at the title will pay the tax

As for Zion...the argument for winning at a high clip now is you don't want him growing up in a losing culture. Same for Ingram who would have missed the playoffs all 5 years in the league if he misses this upcoming year. Go ahead and bring back a list of all the top tier guys that were main contributions on great teams that missed the playoffs their first five years in the league. Its so extremely rare that I only found one when I did a little research on it

Its very hard to lose lose lose and then flip the switch and win. Why you see teams like Dallas trying to win as soon as they get a generational guy like Luka. Hawks will try to do the same next year.

It's nice in theory to keep losing and get assets but it often hurts the franchise more than it helps in the long run

[Darkhorse985]

I think the Pelicans should always be looking to win now because, they have the foundation to do so. Zion will leave just like AD if we have 1 or 2 playoff seasons out of his first 7 years with the team. Tanking is not a good option.

[Taker597]

People said the same in other sports and still record deals were handed out in the offseason. I think what we might see is the gap get bugger between top tier players and average guys. Maybe the guy who would've got full MLE in the past gets half that or the 14 mil guy gets the MLE. But the needle movers will get long term commitments and the franchises who think they have a shot at the title will pay the tax

As for Zion...the argument for winning at a high clip now is you don't want him growing up in a losing culture. Same for Ingram who would have missed the playoffs all 5 years in the league if he misses this upcoming year. Go ahead and bring back a list of all the top tier guys that were main contributions on great teams that missed the playoffs their first five years in the league. Its so extremely rare that I only found one when I did a little research on it

Its very hard to lose lose lose and then flip the switch and win. Why you see teams like Dallas trying to win as soon as they get a generational guy like Luka. Hawks will try to do the same next year.

It's nice in theory to keep losing and get assets but it often hurts the franchise more than it helps in the long run

Well, its a conundrum. I just simply don't see a win now overnight move that'll help us take over a division with Rockets, Grizzlies, Spurs, and Mavs.

I if I did see that move(s) that can lift us. I'd take it, but I really don't see that move till 2021. We got to develop players and really strike gold on some draft picks first and foremost. Then, the rest of pieces will fall into place. I rather take a patient, but aggressive approach. Don't get into the habit of forcing a move.

[msusousaphone]

I like 2. I see that as the most realistic and I'm cool with it.

Unrealistic offseason fantasy pipe dream.....but what about a 5th option of going even more in.....trying to keep most of this roster intact while trading young talent and picks for another all-star type? Not just a solid vet but Jrue level or higher.

I'm still in hurricane survival mode so I have not looked at cap or anything. May not be feasible. But we're always talking about packaging Jrue to land the Turners or the Beals.....we have a MASSIVE amount of assets. Keep the JJ, Jrue, Zion, BI, Hart core and mortgage the future to start the dynasty, now. So this would be like option 1 or 2 but also swinging for the fences. Maybe wait until midseason when a team starts to lose hope in the future and want to blow up and rebuild. It's the only way option 1 makes sense because we are not a finals contender, as is. The 4th option doesn't make sense to me, either. At some point (and I think we're there) you can have too many assets. That dreaded "potential" word in sports. It has to translate into real players and more pics would just be ridiculous.

When the dust settles after a trade for Jrue type, we would probably still have more than the average future assets, too. So it really isn't mortgaging the future. More like spring cleaning since we can't possibly have all that youth.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Well, its a conundrum. I just simply don't see a win now overnight move that'll help us take over a division with Rockets, Grizzlies, Spurs, and Mavs.

I if I did see that move(s) that can lift us. I'd take it, but I really don't see that move till 2021. We got to develop players and really strike gold on some draft picks first and foremost. Then, the rest of pieces will fall into place. I rather take a patient, but aggressive approach. Don't get into the habit of forcing a move.

"Win now" doesnt mean win the division. Or the WC. Or the title. It means win games, compete, maybe make the playoffs. Think: Dallas last year -- Griff would be ecstatic with that and that would get Zion and Ingram great experience for what to expect in the future

[Sujaguar00]

The Hoop Collective Podcast (speculating on 4 names that have been discussed in trade talks) suggested the Nets as the most likely destination for Jrue (and maybe JJ) that could net Levert, Prince, Allen (if JJ is included) and a first.

The others discussed were Chris Paul, Victor Oladipo and Bradley Beal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MichaelMcNamara]

We talked to them in the past and it went nowhere. If they don't substantially improve their offers, he won't be a Net

[Sujaguar00]

We talked to them in the past and it went nowhere. If they don't substantially improve their offers, he won't be a Net

From the one discussed on the podcast or another iteration of a deal?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MichaelMcNamara]

From the one discussed on the podcast or another iteration of a deal?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I dont know what they discussed on the podcast. That is my least favorite NBA podcast by a million miles. But what I know is that in real life, we had talks with them in Jan and Feb and Griff wants substantially more than they were willing to offer back then

[Eman5805]

Is Steve Nash getting the nod at HC as much a Durant appeasing move as it appears? Basically if Durant is like “get Jrue over here” does that offer come up to where Griffin wants now?

Ultimate question is: how much sway do players like Durant get despite playing hardly at all?