NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[luckyman]

It's been a minute since I updated this. I didn't have per 100 stats for Poku so I assumed Greek A2 is 75 possessions per 40 minutes. If anyone has a better estimate, let me know! https://t.co/Ui50OUl2vm pic.twitter.com/GsxXKvnfAF

— You know it, I know it, we all know it’s Wiseman (@thecity2) August 21, 2020

Just so you know, these stats are basically accurate: the Greek league is about 75 possessions per 40 (it's 75.9, apparently, so barely off).

The X axis is stocks (steals+blocks) and the Y axis is FT%+ASTs. It's not a perfect metric, but it's just a rough look at the statistical defensive production of a big combined with the strongest signifiers of touch and playmaking (ft% being better for projecting shooting than just raw 3pt percentage a lot of the time, and assists obviously being the best simple number for passing skill).

Pokusevski is in rare air. He's just below Brandon Clarke, Embiid, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Zion in the stocks (Anthony Davis waaaay off in front in stocks) but is by far the best showing here in the FT%+AST category. Nobody really comes close to him: second place goes to Draymond Green. It's kind of bonkers how ahead he is in that stat.

Now, it does have to be noted that he's playing against worst competition than these guys were, but come on. When someone plays against bad competition, if they're good, you expect them to dominate, and he's dominated. This is exactly what you would want to see from him.

Do these stats take into account level of competition?

[Pelicanidae]

Do these stats take into account level of competition?

Nope they are just the raw stats. I mentioned level of competition in the post you're replying to being an issue. Worth noting that even if you assume that his stats would all be reduced by a quarter playing in the NCAA, that would still put him near KATs college production in stocks, and he's still be second only to Draymond in the FTS+AST

[Pelicanidae]

Pretty illustrative Nesmith sequence. Zero ability to create advantages whatsoever, terrible decision-maker, baffling defensive lapses stemming from poor communication pic.twitter.com/fK2ixyNSnN

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) August 23, 2020

Big agree with Max here. Nesmith makes mistakes like this (usually not all of them at once, but each of them come up) all the damn time and it's so frustrating.

He's an elite catch/movement shooter but that is basically it. Sort of okay as a team defender. That's about it. Can't pass or playmake, low feel, can't dribble or drive or score at the cup, or create for himself as a shooter off the dribble, or defend 1v1.

[Taker597]

Pretty illustrative Nesmith sequence. Zero ability to create advantages whatsoever, terrible decision-maker, baffling defensive lapses stemming from poor communication pic.twitter.com/fK2ixyNSnN

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) August 23, 2020

Big agree with Max here. Nesmith makes mistakes like this (usually not all of them at once, but each of them come up) all the damn time and it's so frustrating.

He's an elite catch/movement shooter but that is basically it. Sort of okay as a team defender. That's about it. Can't pass or playmake, low feel, can't dribble or drive or score at the cup, or create for himself as a shooter off the dribble, or defend 1v1.

Who hasn't made a play like this in their career?

I agree with all of fault, but a bad clip is a bit silly when even a Lebron James have done this..

[Pelicanidae]

Who hasn't made a play like this in their career?

I agree with all of fault, but a bad clip is a bit silly when even a Lebron James have done this..

It it was one play and that was it, I wouldn't have bothered posting it. The point is that he makes mistakes like this (and I repeat myself here) all the damn time.

I trust him to hit three point shots off the catch or off movement. That's about all I trust him to do.

[Taker597]

It it was one play and that was it, I wouldn't have bothered posting it. The point is that he makes mistakes like this (and I repeat myself here) all the damn time.

I trust him to hit three point shots off the catch or off movement. That's about all I trust him to do.

I trust his work eithic to improve. You don't go from below average shooter to one of the best in the country in one year shooting 8 3s a game. He got the frame and good enough athleticsm. Still need a good coach, tho.

[Pelicanidae]

I trust his work eithic to improve. You don't go from below average shooter to one of the best in the country in one year shooting 8 3s a game. He got the frame and good enough athleticsm. Still need a good coach, tho.

If you're betting on him to improve, that's one thing. Obviously I don't see it as much as you do, but it's a sort of an uncertain thing at the best of times, and you're allowed to make that evaluation of course.

But the reality of right now is that he's a massively flawed player.

My subjective evaluation is that a lot of his flaws, like decision making and low defensive feel, are the kind of flaws that don't tend to improve that much: at least, not that often. It has happened, but it's just not a given like adding weight or working on a shot. If you want to take the bet that he's one of the few to make those leaps then you're welcome to, but I'd rather just draft a player who looks like he knows where he is most of the time.

[Pelicanidae]

Going to drop a few Pokusevski clips in here because they're fun and somewhat relevant. Reminder: Poku is 7 feet tall and almost the youngest player in this draft. Almost every other player in this draft is 19 at this point: Poku doesn't turn 19 until December.

Poku weaves around the screen, creates space with the off-hand in-n-out and buries the pull-up jumper. Tantalizing prospect pic.twitter.com/jmV9vxJ7M7

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 23, 2020

3 dribbles to cover nearly the entire court. One dribble past half-court. Ends in a dunk. Poku, folks. pic.twitter.com/5igjGNzA83

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Leading a side PnR, live dribble skip pass for the assist. Just a fascinating skill set for Poku pic.twitter.com/Y57V2332Hn

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Pull-up 3 from Poku. He's 7 feet tall and 17 years old in this clip. Special. pic.twitter.com/Td7cdYkNGD

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

17-year-old 7-footer. pic.twitter.com/pXhekWFzfP

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Poku's two-way flashes are so intriguing pic.twitter.com/Pq8dckWQTR

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Poku's coordination and handling is rare for a 7-footer pic.twitter.com/I9dr6QeitX

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Poku has such a weird brain. What are you even doing here dude. pic.twitter.com/gjTpJxtJOk

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) August 10, 2020

^^^^ This one is funny because he does an off the dribble behind the back lob pass and the other guy just has no clue that it's coming. Turnover for that reason but man, who thinks of this stuff?

some people just see basketball in a different way than the rest of us do pic.twitter.com/EodwdDXq68

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) August 10, 2020

^^^ Drive and behind the back lay-down pass

this is a neat pass but I'm really earnestly laughing at Poku staring at his hands afterwards in confusion pic.twitter.com/bw9rMX13aK

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) July 3, 2020

This is signature Poku play: goes behind his back between two defenders for no reason, somehow keeps possession, fires off a trans dimensional warlock pass, immediately relocates and hits a contested step back corner 3. Like straight things that only he does consecutively https://t.co/g9LbqChNDW

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) August 17, 2020

lol

I get that there are real concerns about Poku. He's so thin, and his centre of gravity is a little higher than you'd like. There's a chance that he never really puts on the mass required to be a high level NBA player. But the skill and feel is so evidently there, it's absurd. This guy is so young he's only a month older than Moussa Diabate: Moussa Diabate was a high school senior this year who won't be draft eligible until 2022. That's how young Poku is. To have this level of skill at his age and size is nuts. Who's the last 17 year old 7 footer who could run both sides of a pick and roll, create huge team defensive impact, and could legit beat people off the dribble? KD?

Dude's special. I want him. The potential is too real.

[Pelifan]

It it was one play and that was it, I wouldn't have bothered posting it. The point is that he makes mistakes like this (and I repeat myself here) all the damn time.

I trust him to hit three point shots off the catch or off movement. That's about all I trust him to do.

Nesmith averages 1.7 TO a game though. So no he's not making these kind of plays all the time.

He's not a guy who's playmaking with the ball in his hands out of double teams. Its not great that he can't pass, or dribble but it's nice knowing he can still be a good offensive player without having to do those things. Defensively Vandy runs a weird scheme. It's hard to judge him on that end for that reason. He can definitely improve but I don't think he's hopeless on that end with his length that shows up in the Stock #s pretty good. Defense is really hard to scout with college players. There are outliers but there are a lot of guys like Klay who were thought of as shaky defenders in college that become solid in pros and vice versa (Wiggins).

If the shooting is, or can be with improvement, top 15 or so in the league level all he needs is a little defense to become a really good player. Any improvement you get outside of that is gravy.

Whether or not he really is an elite shooter though, not just in percentages but in getting open off screens, speed of his release and footwork, is really where he is make or break as a prospect and the sample size and level of competition certainly leaves room for debate there.

[Pelicanidae]

Nesmith averages 1.7 TO a game though. So no he's not making these kind of plays all the time.

He's not a guy who's playmaking with the ball in his hands out of double teams.

Well this is a sort of self-defeating argument. Yes, he only average 1.7 turnovers a game, but that's because he's not got the ball in his hands a lot. The question isn't ''is 1.7 TO a game a lot?'', it's ''is 1.7TO per game a lot for someone who does as little ballhandling as Nesmith?''. The answer to that is yes, I think. Nesmith's TO% has been larger than his AST% in both of his college seasons, and while low as an absolute figure, is high in relation to his general playmaking.

Its not great that he can't pass, or dribble but it's nice knowing he can still be a good offensive player without having to do those things.

The question is how much he's going to be effective at the NBA level with those limitations. The league is full of players who can really shoot it when given the chance, but who can't do anything else, and they tend to bounce around here and there; what helps players stick is when they have auxiliary skills. It's my belief that you should never really draft someone on the back of a single skill they have, because the odds that they'll be a helpful NBA player with only one actual ability are fairly low. Could be wrong of course, it does happen, but it's a small probability.

If the shooting is, or can be with improvement, top 15 or so in the league level all he needs is a little defense to become a really good player. Any improvement you get outside of that is gravy.

I agree with this, but is he going to be a top 15 shooter in the NBA? He's not even the best shooter in this draft class. Of course that doesn't mean he won't be, but when I think of elite NBA shooters one of the most important skills is the pullup/shot off the dribble, which Nesmith doesn't really have a high level. Then the defense is a question mark: will he be a good defender? Maybe, but again that assumes some improvement. Maybe he'll make it, but the issue seems to be awareness more than anything else and that tends to be one the harder things to learn. Again, not impossible, but at this point we're making a lot of ''if only'' assumptions for him, and it's too many for me to feel comfortable with when we're talking about the #13 pick, where there are a lot of less questionable prospects around who have shown more potential.

[AusPel]

Going to drop a few Pokusevski clips in here because they're fun and somewhat relevant. Reminder: Poku is 7 feet tall and almost the youngest player in this draft. Almost every other player in this draft is 19 at this point: Poku doesn't turn 19 until December.

Poku weaves around the screen, creates space with the off-hand in-n-out and buries the pull-up jumper. Tantalizing prospect pic.twitter.com/jmV9vxJ7M7

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 23, 2020

3 dribbles to cover nearly the entire court. One dribble past half-court. Ends in a dunk. Poku, folks. pic.twitter.com/5igjGNzA83

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Leading a side PnR, live dribble skip pass for the assist. Just a fascinating skill set for Poku pic.twitter.com/Y57V2332Hn

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Pull-up 3 from Poku. He's 7 feet tall and 17 years old in this clip. Special. pic.twitter.com/Td7cdYkNGD

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

17-year-old 7-footer. pic.twitter.com/pXhekWFzfP

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Poku's two-way flashes are so intriguing pic.twitter.com/Pq8dckWQTR

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Poku's coordination and handling is rare for a 7-footer pic.twitter.com/I9dr6QeitX

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 22, 2020

Poku has such a weird brain. What are you even doing here dude. pic.twitter.com/gjTpJxtJOk

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) August 10, 2020

^^^^ This one is funny because he does an off the dribble behind the back lob pass and the other guy just has no clue that it's coming. Turnover for that reason but man, who thinks of this stuff?

some people just see basketball in a different way than the rest of us do pic.twitter.com/EodwdDXq68

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) August 10, 2020

^^^ Drive and behind the back lay-down pass

this is a neat pass but I'm really earnestly laughing at Poku staring at his hands afterwards in confusion pic.twitter.com/bw9rMX13aK

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) July 3, 2020

This is signature Poku play: goes behind his back between two defenders for no reason, somehow keeps possession, fires off a trans dimensional warlock pass, immediately relocates and hits a contested step back corner 3. Like straight things that only he does consecutively https://t.co/g9LbqChNDW

— Spike Smeagol (Classic Mode) (@Cosmis) August 17, 2020

lol

I get that there are real concerns about Poku. He's so thin, and his centre of gravity is a little higher than you'd like. There's a chance that he never really puts on the mass required to be a high level NBA player. But the skill and feel is so evidently there, it's absurd. This guy is so young he's only a month older than Moussa Diabate: Moussa Diabate was a high school senior this year who won't be draft eligible until 2022. That's how young Poku is. To have this level of skill at his age and size is nuts. Who's the last 17 year old 7 footer who could run both sides of a pick and roll, create huge team defensive impact, and could legit beat people off the dribble? KD?

Dude's special. I want him. The potential is too real.

This Jackson Frank account is killing me

Surely it's a parody of Frank Jackson

[Pelicanidae]

This Jackson Frank account is killing me

Surely it's a parody of Frank Jackson

Nah, but I do think it sounds like it should be.

[Nola3]

Salivating at those Poku clips

[Pelicanidae]

Salivating at those Poku clips

He's just so unbelievably skilled, not only for his age but his height as well. The criticisms are real and there's cause for concern but if he hits even 80% of what he's capable of, he's a special special player.

[luckyman]

It it was one play and that was it, I wouldn't have bothered posting it. The point is that he makes mistakes like this (and I repeat myself here) all the damn time.

I trust him to hit three point shots off the catch or off movement. That's about all I trust him to do.

Well there'll need to be some metrics and a nice 8 - 10 minute video of him doing that all the time. That one clip and some words wont suffice.

For a college player he's shown enough flashes that he can handle the ball.

[Pelicanidae]

Well there'll need to be some metrics and a nice 8 - 10 minute video of him doing that all the time. That one clip and some words wont suffice.

For a college player he's shown enough flashes that he can handle the ball.

Better than an 8-10 minute highlight video (I swear highlight video draft scouting needs to die a death sooner rather than later), you can watch whole games and see him do stuff like this all the time.

As for metrics, I already posted one basic one, which is that his TOV% has been higher than his AST% both years in college, which is not a good sign.

[Snarly]

I like Bey better than Nesmith. The sample size and the level of competition scares the hell out of me.

[Pelicanidae]

I like Bey better than Nesmith. The sample size and the level of competition scares the hell out of me.

Which one?

[Snarly]

The other sharpshooter Saddiq if I had to draft a sharpshooting wing.

[JJackisangry]

We don’t want Nesmith because he can create or playmake. We want him because he can play without the ball and not interfere with the other playmakers. Too many ball dominant players is a bad thing. I also think Pok should be our second round pick if he is still on the board.

[Pelicanidae]

We don’t want Nesmith

True.

We want him because he can play without the ball and not interfere with the other playmakers. Too many ball dominant players is a bad thing.

This is true but deciding on who your final ballhandlers are and whatnot are choices you make fairly late in the ''being contenders'' process. Right now we just desperately need to acquire more talent, as many good players as we can. Limited roleplayers are not the guys you get first, they're the guys you tailor the roster with after you've locked down a core. Even the best roleplayers float around the league for this reason; look at Robert Covington, who is absolutely impactful and one of the best roleplayers in the NBA, but who moves around regularly. You can get those guys: what you need is talent.

I also think Pok should be our second round pick if he is still on the board.

Not a chance Poku is still on the board in the second round. A lot of mock drafts these days have him going as high as the teens; the latest Bleacher Report mock had him at #19. Now, there are still some places that project him into the second round, but the buzz is growing and given how late this year's draft is going to be, I expect it to keep growing. ''Sleeper'' hits become less sleeper as the time wears on and even bad draft analysts have too much time on their hands.

[Silver Nail]

Said it 2 months ago, 1 month ago, and several times in between.

Step 1, Fire Gentry, check! Step 2, Hire Mark Few et al! Step 3, Sign Olynyk to a 2 plus 1! Step 4, Draft Poku at 13 then use all 2nd rounders to get anywhere between 29 and 32 to snag Tillie. Done

[Eman5805]

This draft has entirely too many Killians.

[Pelicanidae]

This draft has entirely too many Killians.

...2?

[Taker597]

This draft has entirely too many Killians.

Would say overrated guards, but that would do too.