NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[pelafanatic]

That's fine, if you don't see value here. I do. With our 4 picks and a little creative dealing by Griff and company we can land Poku and Tillie giving us a today guy and future.

That's something I could get behind. And I'd have no problem admitting I'm wrong about Pok if it comes to that. Obviously, it's not like I've seen him play against a whole bunch of talent so how reliable of an opinion could I actually form.

The other guy I like with our later picks is Cassius Winston. I think teams are going to overthink him like they always do with seniors, but he's a pretty safe bet to be a role player. I really like his fit next to NAW as a bench guard long term as well. He's one of those super high character/work ethic guys that Griff covets.

[Pelicanidae]

That's something I could get behind. And I'd have no problem admitting I'm wrong about Pok if it comes to that. Obviously, it's not like I've seen him play against a whole bunch of talent so how reliable of an opinion could I actually form.

The other guy I like with our later picks is Cassius Winston. I think teams are going to overthink him like they always do with seniors, but he's a pretty safe bet to be a role player. I really like his fit next to NAW as a bench guard long term as well. He's one of those super high character/work ethic guys that Griff covets.

Winston is a second round talent to me. If we were to keep our numerous 2nd round picks and grab him towards the tail end of the draft then that would be one thing, but I wouldn't take him in the top 20.

[Funcrusher]

But a major key to that death lineup was Draymond was the greatest help defender of all time, and Klay and Iggy were so good guarding the perimeter that it was nearly impossible to even get to Draymond. This could very well change, but Zion has not shown the defensive awareness yet for me to think he plays the Draymond role, and he doesn't really have the lateral quickness to guard efficiently on the perimeter. KD and Steph were really smart defenders as well.

The defensive IQ is lacking for the Pels right now in the young guys, which is why that unit was so much better when Favors was on the floor. Now if you inject Jonathan Isaac into that unit we'd be speaking the same language.

Haven't followed the draft much but I think in regards to defensive ceiling Zion/Ingram deserve some slack. It's clear to me that a lot of Zion's defensive woes this year are a product of being out of shape, he's not the same lateral athlete (or vertical athlete) he was in college, and the only thing that's changed frankly is that he's gotten fatter. His ability (and willingness) to slide his feet on the perimeter was drastically better, remember this:



Now, granted, he's never gonna be asked to defend NBA 1s and probably even a lot of 2s but there's no reason in my mind he can't eventually switch on wings and hold his own. He was touted as a two-way player coming out of college for a reason, he's just not the same athlete he was last year. Admittedly that's a problem in it's own right, which is why this offseason Griff needs to make sure Zion loses a good 10-15 lbs and get in peak shape, because right now Zion doesn't even sprint down the court in transition. And I'm concerned about his defensive awareness as well, but not to the extent that I would panic, YET. I think even at Duke his help D was a little overrated given he gambled a lot and was a little over-agressive playing passing lanes at times(something that was masked because that team was stacked defensively top to bottom with largely fundamentally sound guys) but his activity level in general was just different compared to now, and that again to me is clearly a conditioning problem. Part of his defensive projection was as a high stocks guy, based on what he did at Duke. It's inconceivable that a healthy, in shape Zion go from a 4% steal rate and 6% block rate in college to a 1% steal rate and 1% block rate in the NBA.

As far as BI, the problem is he's not a pf, and ideally should never play the 4. He's much better guarding 2's and 3's than he is guarding 4's, and honestly probably better guarding 2's than 3's. He's probably never going to become more than an average team defender, but that also matters less if he's defending the perimeter rather than the post. In fact, I think long term we should think of him defensively as a guard, it just puts a cap on his defensive ceiling and the team's defensive ceiling having him fight bigger guys consistently or even play the role of pseudo-rim protector. So, with that said, I'm in the camp of trading Jrue + picks for an Isaac type wing (Also guys like Towns, CP3, Booker), particularly because I think Lonzo can replace a lot of Jrue's value defensively (and because I just don't really value Guard defense that much).

[Pelicanidae]

Zion is one thing. I'm absolutely sure that long term, Zion will be a fine defender. He has great strength, good hands, solid instincts, and pretty quick feet for a guy his size. He was a rookie this year, and rookies almost always suck on defense, and he didn't even have the usual rookie experience. He was forced to sit out of training camp and the bulk of the season due to injury, and the team was a defensive garbage fire before he got there anyway. He wasn't good on defense but there's enough reasons for me to be optimistic going forward.

Ingram is a little different because he's been in the league for 3 years now and has never been a particularly good defender, and he didn't have the disadvantages that Zion did this year in regards to missing time or injury. He's in a weird spot because he's not strong enough to defend 4s or 5s despite having the right height and wingspan to do so, but his feet are far too slow and his hips too high for him to really chase around smaller guys on the perimeter consistently. He's best as a defender off ball, using his length to crowd passing lanes, but that's a skill he's yet to show with consistency (he did show it at times this year). Could he improve? Totally, and I'm not going to ignore that the lack of Favors for large parts of this year made things harder on him than they had to be, but it's still worth considering.

I'd be very reluctant to trade Jrue for any of the guys you mentioned. The prospect of Lonzo, who still can't run any halfcourt offense at all and who had a tangible step down defensively this year, replacing Jrue's value is a long shot, imo.

[MichaelMcNamara]

IMO - to trade or not to trade Jrue will come down to one thing: Does Giannis sign an extension this off-season?

If he does, you will get trade offers of 100-120 cents on the dollar for Jrue, and you have to move him at that point. If Giannis is set to be a FA in 2021, the market for Jrue will be lukewarm and i would sign him to an extension at that point

[pelafanatic]

I think long term we should think of him defensively as a guard

Yea I put out the other day that Ingram is by far his most effective defensively when guarding shooters. His length really gives them trouble, and his positioning is actually fairly good. I've re-watched the first four or five games so far. Ingram got absolutely destroyed on the defensive end by Siakam and Porzingis (to the point where I was audibly yelling at the coaches to switch him off), but he was fantastic in his minutes against guys like Lowry, Anunoby, and Eric Gordon. They were basically unwilling to take shots over him, and he blocked something like 4 3s in those first 3 games. Notably, Jrue switched on to Siakam in the second half and was fantastic. That guy is incredible.

[PELICANSFAN]

IMO - to trade or not to trade Jrue will come down to one thing: Does Giannis sign an extension this off-season?

If he does, you will get trade offers of 100-120 cents on the dollar for Jrue, and you have to move him at that point. If Giannis is set to be a FA in 2021, the market for Jrue will be lukewarm and i would sign him to an extension at that point

Interesting take. Do you think the Pels see Zion, BI and Zo as the future "Big 3?" If so, how difficult would it be to sign Jrue to an extension given the contract values needed for those 3?

[Pelicanidae]

I haven't really done any intense scout work for like 2 months at this point because of all the Everything that's happened but since it appears the season is coming back I'm gonna get back into it. Go back and rewatch a ton of college and international games, including some pre college games for certain players where it's available, and put together like a mini profile for each major player in the draft.

If I do, I'll post the mini profiles on here. Very likely, nobody will read them but they'll be there just in case anyone wants to know my thoughts on Desmond Bane or someone else with less hype.

[tdcreator]

I haven't really done any intense scout work for like 2 months at this point because of all the Everything that's happened but since it appears the season is coming back I'm gonna get back into it. Go back and rewatch a ton of college and international games, including some pre college games for certain players where it's available, and put together like a mini profile for each major player in the draft.

If I do, I'll post the mini profiles on here. Very likely, nobody will read them but they'll be there just in case anyone wants to know my thoughts on Desmond Bane or someone else with less hype.

I’ll be here waiting. You done yet?

How about now? Lol. I’m so bored I’ll read anything.

[Pelicanidae]

It will be starting later today (that's Friday 26th, for timezone clarification). Need some time to rewatch a couple of games and refresh my memory, and read over some of my old notes. Will probably just grab a random mock draft from online and do the players in order from that, unless anyone wants my take on a particular player first (which I doubt lol)

[MichaelMcNamara]

It will be starting later today (that's Friday 26th, for timezone clarification). Need some time to rewatch a couple of games and refresh my memory, and read over some of my old notes. Will probably just grab a random mock draft from online and do the players in order from that, unless anyone wants my take on a particular player first (which I doubt lol)

Do some work on the following guys (I know Pels are looking at all of them) -- Josh Green, Kira Lewis, Jalen Smith, Bolmoro

[Nola3]

Do some work on the following guys (I know Pels are looking at all of them) -- Josh Green, Kira Lewis, Jalen Smith, Bolmoro

I'll piggy back on this and say that I would love a deep dive on Bolmaro

[Pelicanidae]

Do some work on the following guys (I know Pels are looking at all of them) -- Josh Green, Kira Lewis, Jalen Smith, Bolmoro

I wouldn't be surprised, given the Didi pick, if we were paying attention to Bolmaro, and while I'll detail more in the profile later, I will give away my overall verdict on him here: he's really good and I like him a lot.

Details to follow

[PELICANSFAN]

Do some work on the following guys (I know Pels are looking at all of them) -- Josh Green, Kira Lewis, Jalen Smith, Bolmoro

Is Bolmaro a guy that we could package the 3 2nd rounders for to move up to the high 2nd or late 1st to grab (and maybe stash)?

[Pelicanidae]

Is Bolmaro a guy that we could package the 3 2nd rounders for to move up to the high 2nd or late 1st to grab (and maybe stash)?

Bolmaro was the 19th pick in Bleacher Report's most recent mock, so he appears to be moving into more mainstream consideration. I don't think it's impossible that he hangs around until even the early second round (there are always people who fall) but it also wouldn't surprise me at all if he went before then, if he's garnering enough mainstream hype for BR to put him top 20

[Pelicanidae]

Okay let's go, let's do a little report. Most requested name was obviously Leandro Bolmaro, so that's where I'll start.

Just for anyone who doesn't know, when I do one of these mini profiles I'm going to list the player's basic stats before going into detail on analysis, pros and cons, etc.

Leandro Bolmaro
Height: 6'7
Weight: 178lbs
Wingspan: 6'8
Pts/Rbds/Asts/Stls/Blks: 7.8/1.6/2.5/1.2/0.3

Brief overview: One of the players with the highest best-case outcomes in the class. Though his stats were depressed due to playing fewer than 20 minutes per game on average this year, Bolmaro still has a ton of positives to his game and encouraging signs. Of course, if you just look at the box score, he doesn't jump off the page, but with a player like Bolmaro, who lacks elite athleticism or burst and relies more on his craft and IQ, if you're looking at raw numbers you're kind of missing the point anyway.

Pros: Bolmaro's strengths are pretty simple, and the most promising offensive one from my perspective has to be his passing. His vision is pretty high level, and he's got live-dribble passing with extreme accuracy, and he's absolutely comfortable with both hands as a passer which opens up a lot of opportunities more single handed dominant players can't exploit. Using eye movement, look offs, and fakes, he's very happy to manipulate to create passes as well, and truly his craft here is pretty fantastic for a player who's still 19 years old. For a player of his age and height, his handle is pretty advanced and he's very good at leveraging his own height to exploit mismatches against smaller defenders. His touch as well is pretty nice, which bodes well for his upper end outcomes as a scorer and also is a good sign for his currently poor shooting (read more about that in the cons section).

Other than offense, Bolmaro is a 2 way player, in the best sense. His defense at times is incredible. While it's absolutely true that point of attack defense at the NBA level is devalued, and that's probably where Bolmaro is at his absolute best, we also know that truly elite POA defenders can have a real impact on the NBA and I don't think it's beyond possibility that he could be one of those difference makers. Quick hips and feet allow him to mirror very well, and he can guard smaller and larger guys to some extent. He smothers drives, and has very little effort getting over screens. I've seen some people describe him as immune to screens, which isn't entirely true but it's closer to reality than most hyperbolic descriptions. He sometimes overplays POA and gives up looks elsewhere, particularly back cuts, but for a 19 year old you can't really get too angry at that.

More useful at an NBA level, he's also a very good team defender. His anticipation is pretty high level, although not truly savant level, but he reads offenses pretty consistently and has a knack for getting himself into the right places to disrupt things. Defending at the nail a little like Jayson Tatum, he generates a ton of steals (3.8% STL this season, very promising, and STL% is one of the better stats for predicting defense at the next level), and because of that handle listed above and his vision in transition, he's very good at turning defense into offense.

Cons: He's physically pretty weak: although I wouldn't be certain that he's actually 178lbs (thats just how he's listed on realgm), he's definitely not bulky and he has weight to put on. Combine that with his lack of burst and explosion, and it's no surprise that he struggles sometimes in the halfcourt as a scorer, especially when it comes to finishing in traffic. The scoring troubles continue onto the perimeter as well; he can't shoot. He shot 27.1% from 3 this year, admittedly on relatively small sample sizes, but the FT shooting at only 69.4% doesn't exactly scream touch either. The bright side here is that the mechanics need work (his guide hand is very inconsistent, there's occasionally a hitch, and his wrist follow through has far too little drive behind it; he kind of just lets it flop around when the ball leaves his hand), but they're not an absolute horror show, and we know that we can work with players who have shooting issues: Lonzo Ball, anyone?

Finally, his decision making can be a little problematic here and there. He plays with a lot of flair, he likes wraparounds and behind the backs and dribble moves, which is all well and good but sometimes he leans too hard into that skillset when there isn't the space or the right matchup for it and it can lead to turnovers and bad shots, especially in the paint where he tries to get too smart; sometimes a kickout is just better. Again though, for a 19 year old it doesn't look too horrible and although I didn't watch a ton of Bolmaro in previous years, I've been told that there's been some improvement there so he may well already be working on it.

Overall: Bolmaro is a player whose combination of size, vision, handle, and defense make him pretty easy to project out into a good and product NBA player. Obviously his defensive ceiling is capped by his ability to score, but the shooting might not be quite as hopeless as the box score suggests: still, I wouldn't expect him to be a real shooter in his rookie season at all. Despite that passing capacity and vision, his lack of athleticism makes it difficult for me to see him as a primary ball handler in the NBA; he's probably the kind of guy who would be best taking on auxiliary playmaking, either as a backup or as a connecting passer, at least until he can add a little strength which should improve his ability to drive. The mentality and the passion is definitely there though, and his aggression on both ends is something you definitely want to see. I wouldn't draft Bolmaro in the top 5, I just think there are players with higher possible ceilings, but I'd be fairly comfortable taking him anywhere in the top 15. The potential is definitely there for a starter calibre player on a good team, and if the chips all fall right (which is obviously asking a lot, I know), it wouldn't be beyond reason for him to reach that sort of top 35 player area at his peak.

[Nola3]

This is the content we pay for. Great job

[Pelicanidae]

Josh Green next because I already had a bunch of notes on him from when I was trying to find out whether Nico Mannion was actually good or not (hint, he's not really very good) through November/December time last year. Took the time to grab a few games after that just to see progression, but here's the Josh Green writeup.

Josh Green
Height: 6'6 ish
Weight: 212lbs
Wingspan: 6'10
Pts/Rbds/Asts/Stls/Blks: 11.9/4.6/2.6/1.5/0.4

Pros: There are some easy pros to Josh Green that jump off the screen the moment you watch him, and that hold out pretty true. The first is that he's pretty dang athletic. No, he's not a nuclear athlete like Zion was last year (nobody in this year's draft is that) but he's a fluid mover, with good feet and hips as well as some pretty commanding strength. He isn't massively vertical, but he tends to use his strength and his decent wingspan to maneuvre in the paint and he has some success with it. He's very good on the break, where he can let his fairly long strides compensate for a lack of extreme speed, and his handle is decent enough to let him move in transition with the ball even if you wouldn't want him trying to create for others on a regular basis.

A lot has been said about Green's shooting upside, and there is room for positivity here for sure. He was a 36% shooter from 3 on a bit more than 2 a game, so the volume wasn't crazy, but the 78% from the FT line is reason to think it's not a total fluke. Catch and shoot is really his specialty; we'll talk about some of the reasons to maybe question his shooting later in the cons.

Defensively is where he shows off a little for me. The 2.8% STL rate is good, and it's not a product of the system: he has good awareness and tends to make proactive rather than reactive moves on the ball, and he's an eager help defender. Rotates pretty well, and his anticipation makes him a legitimate threat in the passing lanes. The good wingspan also helps here, and he knows how to use it to his advantage. For a guy with his bulk (he isn't huge by any means but he's hardly a slip) he's got pretty nice footwork around screens and he knows how to flatten himself and he's very good at recovering off the screen. There's inconsistency here and he does sometimes get knocked off by a screen but for college players that's not a huge deal, it's rare that guys are perfect with screening at this level. Switching is not a death sentence for him, but I wouldn't recommend it, especially against true bigs; he's just not really big enough for that, and he doesn't have good enough lower body strength to really play that super switcher role.

Cons: His touch around the rim is really poor. According to Synergy (yes, Synergy, it's imperfect, but still, it illustrates the point) he produced only 0.84 points per shot around the rim, excluding postups this year. That's very poor for a guy of his size. He doesn't have finesse here, and in 2 years at Arizona has logged a grand total of 2 (yes, two) weak-hand finishes. The right hand dominance is insane, and that's forgivable if you're just unstoppable with it, but he's not. He doesn't post up really at all, either. Part of this might be due to team strategy rather than a personal failing, he played quite a lot of his minutes with a centre who spent a lot of time in the paint, but it's worth noting.

Now we get to the shooting downsides. As mentioned before, the percentages and volume are okay but not extremely awesome, but that's not the problem here. The problem is, for me, that so far he's only really a catch and shoot guy. That has value, of course, and I wouldn't downplay it, but Green has shown no consistent aptitude for pullups or movement shooting, really at all. He was 7/33 on jumpers off this dribble this year, which is good for 21%, and 4/18 shooting off screens. Low volume applies here, but it's still not exactly sparkling. Mechanics are part of the reason for this: his shot has a clear hitch, and his lower body is kind of wonky with the feet, legs, and base all varying from shot to shot pretty dramatically. The other reason is probably that not-great touch mentioned earlier. Over time, I do think he will be a solid NBA catch and shoot guy, especially if he goes to a team with a decent shooting coach, but I don't buy some of the on-ball self creation stuff I've seen a handful of people here and there mention.

The handle I mentioned earlier, being good enough to run in transition, is absolutely true but it's too high and too loose in the halfcourt and when under pressure. Not atrocious but not notable, especially for a 6'6 guy. Occasionally I've seen people play him up as a really good passer, but I don't buy it really. I buy him as a decent passer, but he doesn't create passes with manipulation and he often misses high leverage pass opportunities. Pick and roll passing is there, for sure, where the play is known in advance, and I think some secondary creation is a real possibility but in my view, forget having him as like a mega-creator wing.

Biggest defensive flaw is on the perimeter. He jumps at fakes a lot, and his positioning is far from stellar. It's a pretty minor quibble.

Conclusion: Josh Green has a lot of positives going for him, but a lot of negatives as well. He's not a lottery calibre talent to me, even in this year which is pretty weak overall. I see him as someone who could go between 18 and 25 and give good value, as long as the team knows what they're doing with him, but if someone takes him higher with the intent of making him a serious creator, for himself or others, then I think there might be some disappointment.

[tdcreator]

Nice. How about grant Riller and Cassius Stanley. Those are 2 players I like in late first early second.

[Pelicanidae]

Nice. How about grant Riller and Cassius Stanley. Those are 2 players I like in late first early second.

I don't even need to recheck my numbers or old notes on Riller, that's how much I really like him I'll just rattle off a quick breakdown, and I'll do one on Stanley after a bit of recap watching.

Grant Riller
Height: 6'3
Weight: 190lbs
Wingspan: Unknown
Pts/Rbds/Asts/Stls/Blks: 21.9/5.1/3.9/1.6/0.3

Pros: I feel very confident in saying that Grant Riller is the best finisher in the class. At 6'3, he shot nearly 70% at the rim, and less than 20% of those shots were assisted. He just selfcreated relentlessly, and it's ridiculous. He was basically as efficient at the rim as Obi Toppin was, despite being a fairly short guard and having to make it all happen himself. Truly just a staggeringly great season at the rim, and that efficiency isn't new: he's a 4 year college man, and posted at least 60% TS for the last 3 years straight. His handle is one of the best in this class. He's the master of varying pace and combined with his top tier burst and acceleration it allows him to really blitz defenses. He has enough control over it to get low on drives and the upper body strength to handle contact when it comes: that said, he's also a wizard of avoiding contact and he can finish pretty much anything on his day. He has the full layup package: seriously, go watch his highlights if you haven't seen him it's kind of wild.

Beyond that, he's also a pretty decent shooter. On pretty high volume and high degree of difficulty, including pull up shots, shots off movement, etc, Riller shot 36% from 3 and 83% from the FT line this year, and that's actually following a pattern of improvement: four years ago, his FT% was 79%, then 70% the following year, then 81%, then 83%. He's a career 36% shooter from deep on about 4 a game, and his insane touch at the rim combined with that solid FT stroke makes me inclined to think that while he'll probably never be hyper efficient as a shooter at the NBA level, he's almost certainly going to be pretty good, and that pull up threat always amplifies a shooter's gravity beyond their raw percentage: see Luka Doncic for more of that. Riller is a college career 39.9% pull up shooter on basically 200 attempts. It's a skill I think is absolutely bankable. There's a stepback in his game, as well as the sidestep with ease.

Riller's also a pretty decent passer, although certainly nothing special. He occasionally pulls out something impressive, but the vast majority of his passing is just solid stuff either as a drive and kick guy or even in the pick and roll. This is probably the thing that limits him the most on the next level offensively, so while we're getting onto what limits him, time for defense.

Cons: Riller's pretty poor on defense. He's not the worst defender I've ever seen; he has decent reflexes and he's a pretty good steals guy, given good anticipation. But that's where the positives really stop. Guarding other guards is something he can generally do acceptably well, but he is limited by his size and what looks to be a fairly short wingspan. Screens make him struggle; he doesn't die on them all the time but they do noticeably interrupt his movement. He's mobile and moves his feet well, so when he is engaged he can be a solid defender of other guards, especially smaller lead guards, so it's not like he's hopeless, but give up any thought of him as a stopper or a switchable guy in the NBA.

One thing that can be a positive or a negative depending on your view is that some of his defensive problems come from lack of effort. He sometimes doesn't get into a stance, or gets caught ballwatching. Maybe you could argue that that's because he's asked to do so much on offense: sort of a James Harden defense, and that once he's in the NBA he'll try harder. That could be true, but there's also an argument that low motor on defense is just a real flaw with the player that has to be dealt with. All of this is true on PnR defense as well, and perimeter closeouts; sometimes he does them, he is capable, and when he tries he's not too bad, but a lot of the time he just doesn't really bother. It can be frustrating to watch.

Overall: Outside of guys like LaMelo, Antman, etc, there's a real lack of guards who show real real potential to be offensive engines. Riller does that. He's older than everyone else, and he played in a weak conference, so that does have to be taken into account, but the skills are just evidently real. He's limited though, by age, size, and clear defensive issues: these same issues plague LaMelo sometimes, but LaMelo is 6'7 and 4 years younger, so he has more lee-way than someone like Riller does.

I think at his high end outcome, Riller could be a legitimate lead guard for a very good offense. He just has that in his skillset, if the chips fall right for him and he has a coach who can work with his skills and a team that he can run. His median outcome is as maybe a 6th man/backup PG type, maybe in the Fred VanVleet mold, although perhaps worse on defense and better as a scoring threat. There's definitely value in that, and that's why I could honestly see Riller being drafted as high as the late lottery, although in reality given his age and size, he'll fall farther than that. Maybe even as far as the 2nd round, where I would be thrilled to pick him up as a guy who can provide the DRIVE to Lonzo's ''meh''.

[Pelicanidae]

Cassius Winston
Height: 6'1
Weight: 185lbs
Wingspan: 6'5
Pts/Rbds/Asts/Stls/Blks: 18.6/2.5/5.8/1.2/0.03

Pros: Single greatest skill is as both a shooter and shot maker. He shot 43% on over 5 threes a game this year, and his four year college career sits at about 43% on 4 attempts per game. 84.7% from the FT line adds some more evidence to that, and the variety of his shot attempts really lends credence to the reality of it. Winston is simply a great shooter who can shoot off the catch, off movement, off screens, etc. One of those players who can take shots off balance, turning in the air, etc, and still nail the attempt. His handle isn't anything special but it's good enough to let him use a dribble move to create space in one or two moves to get a shot off. Really has the potential to be a pretty special shooter.

His finishing is a little less impressive but it's not bad: both hands are usable, and he's got some creativity in his finishing, but he's very limited by his height which I'll get to in the cons section.

As a passer, he's pretty good; again, not incredible, but his ast/to ratio sits at about 2.3 for his college career and around 1.8 for this year in specific, which is the result of his fairly confident and consistent decision making. It helps that he was playing PnR with Xavier Tillman, who is great, but he's confident with pocket passes, wraparounds, and laydown passes, and most importantly for me he prioritises assisting on good shots: over 90% of his assists this year came either right at the rim, or from 3, which are obviously the higher value shots to be acquiring.

When it comes to defense, he's pretty solid when it comes to team defense; he's usually in the right place at the right time, he helps, stunts, and recovers consistently, and while it wasn't consistent as a pickpocket across his entire college career, he did manage to log some seasons above that vaunted 2% STL rate.

Cons: Cassius Winston is 6'1 and it shows. Despite his craft and versatility as a driver, he was only a ''good'' finisher, rather than anything special, and he was lucky that a lot of his worst misses got cleaned up by the rest of his team in the form of offensive rebounds: again, playing with Tillman helped here, mitigating the worst of the problem. Another part of the issue here is the burst: someone like Riller is small as well, but he has some explosion and acceleration to help him maximise what he has, whereas Winston just isn't very impressive as an athlete at all.

Similarly, despite generally knowing where to be on defense, his height puts a very challenging cap on his ability there. Obviously every now and again we have a CP3 come along and show us that you can be 6 foot nothing and still be an excellent defender but that really is the exception to the rule, and sadly Winston is not in that camp. Footwork on defense is imperfect, he can get caught backpedalling on his heels and off balance, and even when he is playing everything well, he's often just not big enough to deter people from going right over or around him. MSU's defensive scheme was very varied this year so he didn't come into contact with screens as often as some of the other guards in this draft but when he did, he didn't fare brilliantly; liable to be bumped around and lose balance, and when you combine that with his size, the PnR defense can be pretty ugly here.

Winston is a one position defender, and even then he won't be particularly great at it. Still, he's smart and again, the awareness and IQ is there, so he won't be an absolute disaster in the way that say, Trae Young is on defense: just really bad.

Overall: Winston's age (22) combined with his height, his lack of outlier strength or burst, and his inconsistent defensive projection, makes it pretty hard for me to put him in the first round. I think given the shotmaking, which looks legitimate, and the playmaking equity that I think isn't savant level but is very capable, he's definitely an NBA player, but more as a bench figure than as someone with real star upside or consistent starting abilities. If the fit was perfect, I guess I could see late first round, but for me, Winston is an early 2nd round prospect.

[Silver Nail]

PELICANIDAE,

Can you give us your analysis on the two guys I covet in this draft? Pokusevski and Tillie

[Pelicanidae]

PELICANIDAE,

Can you give us your analysis on the two guys I covet in this draft? Pokusevski and Tillie

I absolutely can, will do write ups on both.

[Jthomp208]

Do the same mods on here moderate saints report?

[Pelicanidae]

Killian Tillie
Height: 6'10
Weight: 220lbs
Wingspan: Unknown
Pts/Rbds/Asts/Stls/Blks 13.6/5.0/1.9/1.0/0.8

Pros: One of the most important things in the draft for someone looking for upside is that bigs can't just be old school, back to the basket dinosaurs who can rebound and post up with no other skills. It's just not a recipe for NBA success anymore. So for bigs, in order to be worth drafting, or at least targeting in the draft, they have to be able to pass, dribble, or shoot. All three is obviously best, but at least one of those skills has to be there.

Tillie has, to some extent, all three. In 4 years at Gonzaga, Tillie has shot 44.4% from 3 on about 240 attempts, increasing his volume until this season where he took almost 4 a night. His shot is smooth, with enviable mechanics, and he's not just a set shooter; Tillie will come off screens, hit shots from movement, and popping out in the PnP. Now, due to some minor mobility concerns that I'll discuss later in the cons, I don't think he'll be a high level movement shooter in the NBA, but the fact that he has it at all is a sign of his outlier touch and shooting stroke for a legitimate 6'10 guy. 75% shooting from the FT line over his college career isn't stellar, but it's good enough for a big that I'm fairly happy with it: if Zion turned into a 75% FT shooter, for example, I'd love it. This is why he's posted at least 60% TS all four years in college. Pull up shooting is a bit of a question mark: he's done it a little bit and had positive results, but it's such low volume that I wouldn't trust it; again though, I would not be surprised if it became a possibility especially in transition.

Speaking of transition, Tillie can actually handle the ball in transition because despite his size, there is a real handle there. He can handle the ball with fluency using either hand, navigating both in space and when crowded, and he's pretty good at protecting the ball when driving against perimeter closeouts or in transition. Of course, this is no Kyrie level handle, but for a big it doesn't have to be: it's good enough that I absolutely trust it at the NBA level.

Passing is a real talent here. While he's not a Jokic level manipulator, Tillie makes fast and confident decisions, reading the floor without awkward pauses that cause other bigs to miss windows, and he has the full package of passes you would want from a modern big: he can go high low, he can make entry passes, can pass out of the dribble, can kick it out from the post. Passing out of the short roll is very much in the bag here, and I think his passing is extremely projectable. Again, I'm not saying he's Jokic here, but he is better than the majority of bigs and very serviceable, especially when combined with the solid handle as mentioned above.

When it comes to more standard big man skills, like finishing at the rim and acting as a roll man, Tillie exceeds here as well. This season he shot 19/23 at the rim off rolls this season, which is obviously very good, and while he's not massively athletic or lengthy, his craft helps him avoid defenders deep in the paint. The same awareness that stops him turning the ball over in tight spaces also helps him shield the ball at the basket, and it pays off well.

Defense for Tillie is a strength as well. He's not some nuclear rim protector who swats 5 shots a game, but he's hit at least 2%STL in 3 of his 4 college seasons, and has had respectable BLK% numbers during this time as well. He rotates very well, knows where to be, and follows through on plays; the kind of generic term for someone like Tillie is that he's a ''smart'' defender, or a ''high IQ'' defender, and while I think that's kind of a lazy way to describe it, it's also true. Quick feet and very good recognition, so he's not totally ruined if he gets matched up one on one with a smaller player, although for reasons I'll discuss in the cons, it's not optimal. Good footwork as well.

Cons: There are 3 main cons, varying in seriousness, for Tillie, which explain why a player with so many tools and skills isn't a consensus first round pick, let alone a lottery guy.

1) Age
For me, this is pretty minor, but he is a 4 year college guy. That always sucks a little bit of the pop out of a player.

2) Athleticism
Tillie doesn't have it on any high level. He's not a completely burstless wonder, but there's no pop, no explosion, no leaping magic, no outlier speed here. Tillie isn't a rim protector of note despite his awareness and timing because he doesn't have the vertical athleticism to really command that space around the rim on defense, and his team defense skills are limited by his lack of ability to stop/start on a dime which make him slightly vulnerable to more bursty ball handlers. Perimeter defense can take a hit here as well, from guys who are skilled at attacking closeouts with authority. Part of this is just natural inclination, but another part of it comes from the next issue which is

3) Injury History
Tillie has a history of injuries. To my knowledge, none of them have been enormous injuries on their own, but he's had so many of them throughout his college career that he basically always seems to be dinged up, and the cumulative effect of this is that some of his athletic ability has been drained already despite still being pretty young. Again, he's not a dinosaur, but it's obvious that he should be more mobile than he is given his quick feet and footwork, and there's obviously concern drafting someone into the NBA when you know in advance that there's probably 3 or 4 years worth of extra age on the body from pure damage-miles. Some of this damage to his mobility is why I have a bit of scepticism towards the higher end shooting outcomes for him in the NBA; trying to come off screens as a shooter takes more dynamism than you may think at first, and with that sapped snap, the doubt is worth having in my mind.

Overall: Tillie is a guy with, I think, lottery level talent that is hurt by concerns about a few skills translating, and a long history of injury. Those are real concerns, and I absolutely get why people would shy away from him at the top end of the draft, especially when we're talking about a big, as most franchise-altering talents tend to be more of the lead-ball-handler variety. That said, I still think that the upper tier talent could be worth taking a swing on, especially if you're able to get his body looked at by your team's medical staff in advance (with everything shut down due to COVID, this may prove an issue, I don't really know) and I could absolutely see a team taking a swing on him in the teens and being very happy with it. More likely, I think he goes back end of the first round, maybe as low as 40th. Any lower than that and I'd be shocked. The health really is an X factor here.