Nets looking to add Jrue???

[MichaelMcNamara]

If we did make him an offer in the offseason...

1. How likely would he be to accept it / how much would it take?
2. How long would we have to keep him before being able to trade him should we want to?

I believe that we offered him an extension, starting at a slight raise, he'd accept. So, basically turn his current 1+1 into a 5 year deal worth 150-160 million

But I don't know if Griffin wants to lock into that. This summer, already, he will have a max deal for Ingram to offer, he will at least need to negotiate with Hart and Ball too on extensions. While, yes, he can theoretically lock everybody in, he would also be killing his future flexibility

Personally, I think flexibility for this franchise is overrated because I don't see us luring big free agents - ever. I think we can trade for big pieces, but won't ever sign one. So, in that vein I would be tempted to lock guys up long term like Jrue and Hart, but I would bet Griffin is more of an optimist than I am with his belief New Orleans can lure a big FA before Zion signs his 2nd contract

[13 - 3]

Read this and you will feel better.

https://www.thebirdwrites.com/2020/4...ball-josh-hart

The TBW is the gospel.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Read this and you will feel better.

https://www.thebirdwrites.com/2020/4...ball-josh-hart

The TBW is the gospel.

Well laid out piece. Almost exactly what I put in my last post, but just far more detailed because they still have the energy to try and educate the fan base. Good for them

[heybigmatt]

I believe that we offered him an extension, starting at a slight raise, he'd accept. So, basically turn his current 1+1 into a 5 year deal worth 150-160 million

But I don't know if Griffin wants to lock into that. This summer, already, he will have a max deal for Ingram to offer, he will at least need to negotiate with Hart and Ball too on extensions. While, yes, he can theoretically lock everybody in, he would also be killing his future flexibility

Personally, I think flexibility for this franchise is overrated because I don't see us luring big free agents - ever. I think we can trade for big pieces, but won't ever sign one. So, in that vein I would be tempted to lock guys up long term like Jrue and Hart, but I would bet Griffin is more of an optimist than I am with his belief New Orleans can lure a big FA before Zion signs his 2nd contract

1) Will this team be able to cope defensively without Jrue (I'd lock him in for that reason) and

2) Can Lonzo compete in the playoffs with his style of play? (I think he is years away from being a + in the playoffs and we have a chance at an accelerated time table with Zion right now. I'd ship Lonzo off now, assuming his value is at its peak with the idea we could obtain a star. I'd also entertain the idea of shipping off Hayes if push came to shove - I don't see how he aligns with Zion)

There are a lot of assumptions I made, namely that we can get a star by shipping off Lonzo, and if we can't then I hold off on trading him. But I think we have a rare opportunity to push while Zion is on a rookie deal, and Jrue just brings so much to the table if you pair him with one more star.

[MichaelMcNamara]

1) Will this team be able to cope defensively without Jrue (I'd lock him in for that reason) and

2) Can Lonzo compete in the playoffs with his style of play? (I think he is years away from being a + in the playoffs and we have a chance at an accelerated time table with Zion right now. I'd ship Lonzo off now, assuming his value is at its peak with the idea we could obtain a star. I'd also entertain the idea of shipping off Hayes if push came to shove - I don't see how he aligns with Zion)

There are a lot of assumptions I made, namely that we can get a star by shipping off Lonzo, and if we can't then I hold off on trading him. But I think we have a rare opportunity to push while Zion is on a rookie deal, and Jrue just brings so much to the table if you pair him with one more star.

I will answer a question with a question (and mind you, I don't know the answer):

Is it possible some of our current players become better defenders because they don't have Jrue to bail them out and just take the toughest matchup?

Now, I am not talking about for the 2020-21 season, I am talking long term. Is there a world in which Lonzo and Ingram get more defensive responsibilities and take their lumps short term and are better defenders because of it? I don't know the answer, but its certainly possible.

As for Lonzo, I just have no clue what he will be. He is the most perplexing good player I have seen in my 30+ years of watching basketball. The guy can throw a 75 foot ally oop on a dime, but he runs the pick and roll like a scared 8th grader and his finishing when challenged at the rim is horrendous at times. Like, high school level stuff. Anybody who can tell you with certainty what he will be is lying.

[heybigmatt]

I will answer a question with a question (and mind you, I don't know the answer):

Is it possible some of our current players become better defenders because they don't have Jrue to bail them out and just take the toughest matchup?

Now, I am not talking about for the 2020-21 season, I am talking long term. Is there a world in which Lonzo and Ingram get more defensive responsibilities and take their lumps short term and are better defenders because of it? I don't know the answer, but its certainly possible.

As for Lonzo, I just have no clue what he will be. He is the most perplexing good player I have seen in my 30+ years of watching basketball. The guy can throw a 75 foot ally oop on a dime, but he runs the pick and roll like a scared 8th grader and his finishing when challenged at the rim is horrendous at times. Like, high school level stuff. Anybody who can tell you with certainty what he will be is lying.

Is it possible? Yes. But I don’t know if “better” is good enough for possible contention. I also don’t know if that development is worth the wait.

In regards to your Lonzo point. I agree. Which is why I think its best to move on, and get a “star” (acknowledging the obvious difficulties doing this). Even with his passing ability, and defense (when he is locked in) I think he is years away from contributing positively during the playoffs.

All in all, I think with how good Zion is right now, you accept the fact that you build around him. We have a unique opportunity to build around him now, without mortgaging our future. Jrue Holiday brings so many tangible and intangibles that are valuable (hence a great organization like the Heat being interested in obtaining him). Think about Jrue’s potential with another “star” and Jrue having little to no offensive burden a night.

Call me crazy but I am also not seeing the fit with Zion and Jaxson Hayes, nor a timeline that jives with the current trajectory of the franchise. Not taking anything away from Hayes.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Is it possible? Yes. But I don’t know if “better” is good enough for possible contention. I also don’t know if that development is worth the wait.

In regards to your Lonzo point. I agree. Which is why I think its best to move on, and get a “star” (acknowledging the obvious difficulties doing this). Even with his passing ability, and defense (when he is locked in) I think he is years away from contributing positively during the playoffs.

All in all, I think with how good Zion is right now, you accept the fact that you build around him. We have a unique opportunity to build around him now, without mortgaging our future. Jrue Holiday brings so many tangible and intangibles that are valuable (hence a great organization like the Heat being interested in obtaining him). Think about Jrue’s potential with another “star” and Jrue having little to no offensive burden a night.

Call me crazy but I am also not seeing the fit with Zion and Jaxson Hayes, nor a timeline that jives with the current trajectory of the franchise. Not taking anything away from Hayes.

"Worth the wait"

When do you think the Pels will/should be contenders?

To me, the answer is the 2023-24 season at best. Like, REAL contenders. The next few seasons are about developing those habits and taking lumps IMO. As for Hayes and Zion, I would guess the title contending Pels can play multiple ways. Think 2013, 14, 15 Spurs. In the WC playoffs they needed Tiago Splitter playing next to Duncan to bang against the Grizz and Thunder and other big teams. When they got to Miami, Splitter was useless and they went Duncan at Center or brought in Diaw to play more.

My guess is that when we are real contenders, we will have found a slightly better/bigger version of Melli. A more skilled big that can stretch, that can pass better, that can defend 3's that shift up to 4 and 4's who shift up to 5. And if the Pels are in a series with a bigger team (and Jaxson puts on the projected 15-20 pounds they think he will by then), you see Jax play 30 mins a game. But against smaller teams, he plays closer to 15-18.

I think regardless, you will need two bigs to choose from with Zion. Hayes is the 1st. Maybe you go draft a Jalen Smith this year and that becomes your trio.

[heybigmatt]

"Worth the wait"

When do you think the Pels will/should be contenders?

To me, the answer is the 2023-24 season at best. Like, REAL contenders. The next few seasons are about developing those habits and taking lumps IMO. As for Hayes and Zion, I would guess the title contending Pels can play multiple ways. Think 2013, 14, 15 Spurs. In the WC playoffs they needed Tiago Splitter playing next to Duncan to bang against the Grizz and Thunder and other big teams. When they got to Miami, Splitter was useless and they went Duncan at Center or brought in Diaw to play more.

My guess is that when we are real contenders, we will have found a slightly better/bigger version of Melli. A more skilled big that can stretch, that can pass better, that can defend 3's that shift up to 4 and 4's who shift up to 5. And if the Pels are in a series with a bigger team (and Jaxson puts on the projected 15-20 pounds they think he will by then), you see Jax play 30 mins a game. But against smaller teams, he plays closer to 15-18.

I think regardless, you will need two bigs to choose from with Zion. Hayes is the 1st. Maybe you go draft a Jalen Smith this year and that becomes your trio.

I think pels should try to be contenders next year. Whether they will/execute to that level is a no. However, attempting it next year, by moving on from Lonzo, and having a starting lineup of Jrue, BI, Ingram, X (Star) and serviceable rim defending three point shooting big man, will benefit us more long term, than taking the bumps and bruises you speak of above. This line up, given the availability through trade of this imaginary star (who probably doesn't exist, but in this perfect world I have created, he does) is obtainable, without losing much flexibility("mortgaging the future"). If you have that option, I think you take it, not only for the obvious of trying to compete, but also creating the culture and making this a non-destination free agent market to a somewhat non-destination free agent market.

In regards to Jaxson, assuming what you are saying is true, that is probably 2-3 years away (I think more likely 3). So we get above average Jaxson Hayes for those last years of his rookie deal, then what? I can't see us resigning him. Is that savings in money for that production worth the wait? Maybe so.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think pels should try to be contenders next year. Whether they will/execute to that level is a no. However, attempting it next year, by moving on from Lonzo, and having a starting lineup of Jrue, BI, Ingram, X (Star) and serviceable rim defending three point shooting big man, will benefit us more long term, than taking the bumps and bruises you speak of above. This line up, given the availability through trade of this imaginary star (who probably doesn't exist, but in this perfect world I have created, he does) is obtainable, without losing much flexibility("mortgaging the future"). If you have that option, I think you take it, not only for the obvious of trying to compete, but also creating the culture and making this a non-destination free agent market to a somewhat non-destination free agent market.

In regards to Jaxson, assuming what you are saying is true, that is probably 2-3 years away (I think more likely 3). So we get above average Jaxson Hayes for those last years of his rookie deal, then what? I can't see us resigning him. Is that savings in money for that production worth the wait? Maybe so.

Yeah, I dont think the Pels could be contenders next year if they wanted to. If there was a mandate on Griff and Langdons job and they put every possible resource into the world into it. The NBA just doesnt work like that. It isnt about how good or talented your roster looks on a piece of paper. You need to go through taking the lumps, have veterans who know how to win at that level, and have a continuity of both sides of the ball. You cant rush that in real life like you can in a video game. A team of say Jrue, Beal, Ingram, and Zion would look awesome on paper. But they'd have no chance to actually win the NBA title. It just doesnt work like that. The window here starts 2022-23 at the absolute earliest, no matter what they do roster wise IMO

[heybigmatt]

Yeah, I dont think the Pels could be contenders next year if they wanted to. If there was a mandate on Griff and Langdons job and they put every possible resource into the world into it. The NBA just doesnt work like that. It isnt about how good or talented your roster looks on a piece of paper. You need to go through taking the lumps, have veterans who know how to win at that level, and have a continuity of both sides of the ball. You cant rush that in real life like you can in a video game. A team of say Jrue, Beal, Ingram, and Zion would look awesome on paper. But they'd have no chance to actually win the NBA title. It just doesnt work like that. The window here starts 2022-23 at the absolute earliest, no matter what they do roster wise IMO

Yes they can’t be contenders- I think I said that in my previous post - but I do think its worth while to try to be contenders. I would say you need to go through taking the lumps too if we didn’t have a player like Zion. I think Zion’s ability transcends a typical path for normal franchise player. I think if we can get a star to pair with Jrue, BI and Zion we will be on a ton of nationally televised games, make teams fear us, and push BI and the younger guys to focus in on what we are doing because we are a good team.

I think it may be harder for a player to focus in if we continue to be mediocre. Apathy towards a season could be a killer for growth. I think you make the correct assumption that taking lumps will improve the younger guys, but that’s not always the case.

I just think the road leads back to Zion. If the team truly believes in his ceiling, then next year he will be a top 10-15 NBA player. Why waste the opportunity on the contract he is on right now to build something - without mortgaging the future. Giving up Lonzo may be a big loss five years from now if he truly comes into his own, but I don’t think that’s a gamble I’m willing to take. We can’t keep all the picks we have right now anyway, the Jaxson Hayes timeline looks off, and Lonzo’s trade value is probably the highest its ever been. I don’t think giving up those three things to get the player we covet is that damaging in the long term.

But, (I’ve been avoiding this topic) - I don’t know who that player is we (I) covet. Is it Brad Beal? Did he struggle this year? I didn’t watch any of his games. I like his attitude.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Yes they can’t be contenders- I think I said that in my previous post - but I do think its worth while to try to be contenders. I would say you need to go through taking the lumps too if we didn’t have a player like Zion. I think Zion’s ability transcends a typical path for normal franchise player. I think if we can get a star to pair with Jrue, BI and Zion we will be on a ton of nationally televised games, make teams fear us, and push BI and the younger guys to focus in on what we are doing because we are a good team.

I think it may be harder for a player to focus in if we continue to be mediocre. Apathy towards a season could be a killer for growth. I think you make the correct assumption that taking lumps will improve the younger guys, but that’s not always the case.

I just think the road leads back to Zion. If the team truly believes in his ceiling, then next year he will be a top 10-15 NBA player. Why waste the opportunity on the contract he is on right now to build something - without mortgaging the future. Giving up Lonzo may be a big loss five years from now if he truly comes into his own, but I don’t think that’s a gamble I’m willing to take. We can’t keep all the picks we have right now anyway, the Jaxson Hayes timeline looks off, and Lonzo’s trade value is probably the highest its ever been. I don’t think giving up those three things to get the player we covet is that damaging in the long term.

But, (I’ve been avoiding this topic) - I don’t know who that player is we (I) covet. Is it Brad Beal? Did he struggle this year? I didn’t watch any of his games. I like his attitude.

Yeah, I think you'll be disappointed in what will be available this offseason to improve. My guess is that none of the top 50-60 players switch teams this summer and/or are available in a trade. Combine that with a poor draft, and again, there is no path to this instant contender status you might want them to shoot for.

Beal might get.moved in Jan or Feb of 2021, but again, that doesn't catapult the Pels into contention even if they can throw a ton of assets at Washington to get him.

Maybe in 2021 or 2022 you can package a lot if young assets together and some picks if the right guy comes available, but that wont be this offseason. There will be no difference makers on the market

[heybigmatt]

"Holiday will be an interesting case study when it comes to the future economics of the NBA. Before the NBA took a hiatus because of COVID-19, Holiday was labeled as a player entering the 2020-21 season with an expiring contract, despite having a $27.4 player option in 2021-22. Now with the uncertainty of future cap projections, there is no guarantee Holiday will become a free agent." -- Marks

Lets assume Holiday is thinking about opting in. What are the implications? Does that benefit us at all?