NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[Blattman]

So, the all time example is Jermaine O'Neal. Now, we all know the Pacers won the trade, but when it happened the NBA world couldn't believe the Blazers got playoff vet Dale Davis for some kid who barely got playing time over his first 4 years

Davis was a walking double double, had just made his first All Star team and just helped lead the Pacers to the Finals the previous year. Meanwhile, O'Neal had only played a grand total of 2400 minutes in 4 seasons in Portland. This was the first example of this kind of deal I can remember.

Usually, teams don't pull the trigger because they too get excited about the upside of the young guy they have. Almost all NBA GM's are optimists. And/or they are risk adverse. They don't want to be the dummy who sent out the 21 year old kid who becomes a star. But history has shown that teams could have gotten decent hauls for guys if they traded them at the right time instead of holding out for the potential.

For example, I know for a fact we had two very good offers on the table for Julian Wright after his rookie year. He hit more 3's that year than the rest of his career combined. He showed playmaking skills in small bursts, and was long and active. Magic offered Redick, Courtney Lee, and a future pick at one point for Wright and Mo Pete

But, we believed in his potential and upside and settled for Belinelli, who was fine for us but had one foot out the league at that point - to give you an idea of Wrights value when we finally moved him.

TLDR; No it doesn't happen a ton, but that's because teams get attached and optimistic too. My theory is to go into the pick knowing you will trade him in 12-18 months and build a plan around that. Don't get attached and find a way to inflate his productivity. Then, trade at peak value

To me, one good example of trading one "limited minutes" player for good value is the Marcus Thornton to Kings trade. I don't know if people are still sensitive about it around here but in my opinion it's was a W for NOLA.

But as you said MM, it's really hard for teams to give up on these players and they usually talk themselves into having the next big thing.

Now if I have to focus on the upcoming draft, I think there is some really interesting international prospect. Deni Avdija is obviously the headliner, he can play, there is question regarding his athleticism but the same was true for Jokic and Doncic and they're doing just fine. I could see him evolve in a more mobile version of Dario Saric. He share we the three of them that balkan flair (his father is a former pro-player for Yougoslavia) and since basketball IQ is often overlooked and teams always fall in love with athleticism, he may slip in the draft.

Another player on my radar is Theo Maledon. He was really good last year and I think his lack of success this year is more related to him coming-back from a long injury. If there is no structural damage, I think he could be a steal if he's picked in the late 10s of the draft.

[ml wave]

To me, one good example of trading one "limited minutes" player for good value is the Marcus Thornton to Kings trade. I don't know if people are still sensitive about it around here but in my opinion it's was a W for NOLA.

But as you said MM, it's really hard for teams to give up on these players and they usually talk themselves into having the next big thing.

Now if I have to focus on the upcoming draft, I think there is some really interesting international prospect. Deni Avdija is obviously the headliner, he can play, there is question regarding his athleticism but the same was true for Jokic and Doncic and they're doing just fine. I could see him evolve in a more mobile version of Dario Saric. He share we the three of them that balkan flair (his father is a former pro-player for Yougoslavia) and since basketball IQ is often overlooked and teams always fall in love with athleticism, he may slip in the draft.

Another player on my radar is Theo Maledon. He was really good last year and I think his lack of success this year is more related to him coming-back from a long injury. If there is no structural damage, I think he could be a steal if he's picked in the late 10s of the draft.

Thornton was definitely a "sell high" but I don't remember him as playing limited minutes...he and Collison were carrying us when CP3 was hurt (as I recall).

[ml wave]

So, the all time example is Jermaine O'Neal. Now, we all know the Pacers won the trade, but when it happened the NBA world couldn't believe the Blazers got playoff vet Dale Davis for some kid who barely got playing time over his first 4 years

Davis was a walking double double, had just made his first All Star team and just helped lead the Pacers to the Finals the previous year. Meanwhile, O'Neal had only played a grand total of 2400 minutes in 4 seasons in Portland. This was the first example of this kind of deal I can remember.

Usually, teams don't pull the trigger because they too get excited about the upside of the young guy they have. Almost all NBA GM's are optimists. And/or they are risk adverse. They don't want to be the dummy who sent out the 21 year old kid who becomes a star. But history has shown that teams could have gotten decent hauls for guys if they traded them at the right time instead of holding out for the potential.

For example, I know for a fact we had two very good offers on the table for Julian Wright after his rookie year. He hit more 3's that year than the rest of his career combined. He showed playmaking skills in small bursts, and was long and active. Magic offered Redick, Courtney Lee, and a future pick at one point for Wright and Mo Pete

But, we believed in his potential and upside and settled for Belinelli, who was fine for us but had one foot out the league at that point - to give you an idea of Wrights value when we finally moved him.

TLDR; No it doesn't happen a ton, but that's because teams get attached and optimistic too. My theory is to go into the pick knowing you will trade him in 12-18 months and build a plan around that. Don't get attached and find a way to inflate his productivity. Then, trade at peak value

That's a good one...I agree about teams getting attached making it hard to accomplish...that's what I was trying to say.

[MichaelMcNamara]

The guy I am liking more and more every day is Patrick Williams from FSU. I think he'd be my top realistic target if we were at 12 or 13. He is a strong dude who has a lot of junkyard dog in his game but also a solid skill set to go with it. His handle looks solid and his stroke is pure. Right now, he is all arms on his jumper (which works for him at the FT line) but once he solidifies his base and uses his lower body better, I think he will be a great shooter.

Can guard the 3 and 4. Can rebound outside of his area. Runs the floor well, finishes well. Oh all the small forwards and combo forwards (Okoro, McDaniels, Avdija, both Bey kids, Nesmith) ... I think he would top my list. They might all have a ceiling as role players, but if you told me one of those guys took the Paul George or even Jaylen Brown path of starting off as a defensive first guy but blossomed into a 20ppg game, I'd bet on Williams.

[Blattman]

I tend to be very careful regarding the word combo forward for prospects. Most of the time they are small-ball 4s that are somewhat mobile but can't really play the 3 because they lack shooting accuracy. Even if they can defend both position well, it's hard to play them as small forwards, e.g. Aaron Gordon or AFA. They're are useful in today's NBA but I think it's important to realize that it's almost impossible to play them at 3 due to the NBA's new landscape.

Ten years ago, the ability to switch onto bigger players was the key for playing defense at your position. That's why guys like LBJ, Melo or KD played SF and guys like Kobe Bryant or Rip Hamilton played SG while being clearly tall and long enough to play the 3 nowadays. Size was the key to defend.
In our current era, with the global use of small ball, you have to be able to switch onto smaller player. The key to defend successfully is now mobility.

That's why it's almost impossible to me to compare combo-forward to small forward. That's why I have a hard time to not separate the group of P.Williams/Avdija/Okoro/McDaniels of the group of Nesmith/Vassell/S.Bey/T.Bey.

Now regarding the draft, given how there is so much unknown in the draft process, I think the selection is more a matter of playing philosphy. I tend to more value quick passing and off-ball movement than shooting to create spacing and equal chance opportunity so I'm more prone to overvalue Avidja's skillset but if others value more strenght or shooting skills I can perfectly understand.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I tend to be very careful regarding the word combo forward for prospects. Most of the time they are small-ball 4s that are somewhat mobile but can't really play the 3 because they lack shooting accuracy. Even if they can defend both position well, it's hard to play them as small forwards, e.g. Aaron Gordon or AFA. They're are useful in today's NBA but I think it's important to realize that it's almost impossible to play them at 3 due to the NBA's new landscape.

Ten years ago, the ability to switch onto bigger players was the key for playing defense at your position. That's why guys like LBJ, Melo or KD played SF and guys like Kobe Bryant or Rip Hamilton played SG while being clearly tall and long enough to play the 3 nowadays. Size was the key to defend.
In our current era, with the global use of small ball, you have to be able to switch onto smaller player. The key to defend successfully is now mobility.

That's why it's almost impossible to me to compare combo-forward to small forward. That's why I have a hard time to not separate the group of P.Williams/Avdija/Okoro/McDaniels of the group of Nesmith/Vassell/S.Bey/T.Bey.

Now regarding the draft, given how there is so much unknown in the draft process, I think the selection is more a matter of playing philosphy. I tend to more value quick passing and off-ball movement than shooting to create spacing and equal chance opportunity so I'm more prone to overvalue Avidja's skillset but if others value more strenght or shooting skills I can perfectly understand.

To me, in almost every draft..... the outcome of 90% of the first rounders careers is entirely dependent on where they go. There are a few guys who will be great regardless of where they go. A few who will stink regardless. The vast majority are so raw that their career will be shaped by their situation, the stability of that situation, what they are asked to do in that situation, and most importantly what they aren't asked to do in that situation. For years, I have said that if Kawhi gets drafted by the Kings, he is never even an All Star, let alone a Finals MVP and an MVP candidate. Conversely, if Dragan Bender is taken by the Celtics, I believe he'd be a borderline All Star right now.

With that in mind, I cant see taking a guy whose strengths involve needing the ball in his hands if I were the Pels. A guy like Avdija is fine with the ball in his hands, but he would be maybe the 4th best guy to create on this team 3 or 4 years from now when he's starting to reach his ascension. Right now he'd be 6th or 7th. So, we wouldn't use him for that, and therefore he wouldn't turn a quasi strength into a super strength because he won't get the reps. And without the ball, he doesn't impact the game either.

What you want with this core that will clearly be here the next 5-8 years(Ingram, Zion, and probably Ball) is guys who can impact the game without touches, without dribbles. Now, that is not me saying to draft for positional need. It is just saying that you don't throw another guy who needs to be higher usage to have plus value into this mix. As for the term "combo forwards" - all I care about is what a guy defends. I would never use "position" on offense. I am looking for guys who can both defend the Paul George's of the world and the Melo's when I say combo forwards. But yes, you are right - offensively, the skill sets on those guys vary greatly.

[Fedupfan]

To me, in almost every draft..... the outcome of 90% of the first rounders careers is entirely dependent on where they go. There are a few guys who will be great regardless of where they go. A few who will stink regardless. The vast majority are so raw that their career will be shaped by their situation, the stability of that situation, what they are asked to do in that situation, and most importantly what they aren't asked to do in that situation. For years, I have said that if Kawhi gets drafted by the Kings, he is never even an All Star, let alone a Finals MVP and an MVP candidate. Conversely, if Dragan Bender is taken by the Celtics, I believe he'd be a borderline All Star right now.

With that in mind, I cant see taking a guy whose strengths involve needing the ball in his hands if I were the Pels. A guy like Avdija is fine with the ball in his hands, but he would be maybe the 4th best guy to create on this team 3 or 4 years from now when he's starting to reach his ascension. Right now he'd be 6th or 7th. So, we wouldn't use him for that, and therefore he wouldn't turn a quasi strength into a super strength because he won't get the reps. And without the ball, he doesn't impact the game either.

What you want with this core that will clearly be here the next 5-8 years(Ingram, Zion, and probably Ball) is guys who can impact the game without touches, without dribbles. Now, that is not me saying to draft for positional need. It is just saying that you don't throw another guy who needs to be higher usage to have plus value into this mix. As for the term "combo forwards" - all I care about is what a guy defends. I would never use "position" on offense. I am looking for guys who can both defend the Paul George's of the world and the Melo's when I say combo forwards. But yes, you are right - offensively, the skill sets on those guys vary greatly.

Out of curiosity, how many times do you think Alvin subs with the thought of defense in mind? For example, what is the thought of replacing Zion with JJ?

[Blattman]

To me, in almost every draft..... the outcome of 90% of the first rounders careers is entirely dependent on where they go. There are a few guys who will be great regardless of where they go. A few who will stink regardless. The vast majority are so raw that their career will be shaped by their situation, the stability of that situation, what they are asked to do in that situation, and most importantly what they aren't asked to do in that situation. For years, I have said that if Kawhi gets drafted by the Kings, he is never even an All Star, let alone a Finals MVP and an MVP candidate. Conversely, if Dragan Bender is taken by the Celtics, I believe he'd be a borderline All Star right now.

With that in mind, I cant see taking a guy whose strengths involve needing the ball in his hands if I were the Pels. A guy like Avdija is fine with the ball in his hands, but he would be maybe the 4th best guy to create on this team 3 or 4 years from now when he's starting to reach his ascension. Right now he'd be 6th or 7th. So, we wouldn't use him for that, and therefore he wouldn't turn a quasi strength into a super strength because he won't get the reps. And without the ball, he doesn't impact the game either.

What you want with this core that will clearly be here the next 5-8 years(Ingram, Zion, and probably Ball) is guys who can impact the game without touches, without dribbles. Now, that is not me saying to draft for positional need. It is just saying that you don't throw another guy who needs to be higher usage to have plus value into this mix. As for the term "combo forwards" - all I care about is what a guy defends. I would never use "position" on offense. I am looking for guys who can both defend the Paul George's of the world and the Melo's when I say combo forwards. But yes, you are right - offensively, the skill sets on those guys vary greatly.

Actually Avidja is a good player off the ball too, he has to improve as a shooter to be more effective, but he's really smart and effective as a cutter. I think they're is also other ways to use courtvision than just dominating the ball and having high number of touches (CP3's style). If you think that the team's core is Ingram, Zion and Ball, I think only Ingram qualifies as a dominating-the-ball type of player. Ball and Zion are both effective as accelerant of offense, not needing to keep the ball for long stretches of the clock to create offense for themselves or the others.

Now, it's more a matter of team building philosophy. Do you think that well-balanced teams with no weakness is the only way to win ? Or do you think it's as important to be unstoppable on one aspect of the game even if that's mean having some weakness ? I think both are valid way to build a team but smaller market have to be more creative so the later seems the better to me to take advantage of market inefficiency. If I was the GM, given the current core, I would build this team around mobile players with great courtvision, having the best passing team would be my goal.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Actually Avidja is a good player off the ball too, he has to improve as a shooter to be more effective, but he's really smart and effective as a cutter. I think they're is also other ways to use courtvision than just dominating the ball and having high number of touches (CP3's style). If you think that the team's core is Ingram, Zion and Ball, I think only Ingram qualifies as a dominating-the-ball type of player. Ball and Zion are both effective as accelerant of offense, not needing to keep the ball for long stretches of the clock to create offense for themselves or the others.

Now, it's more a matter of team building philosophy. Do you think that well-balanced teams with no weakness is the only way to win ? Or do you think it's as important to be unstoppable on one aspect of the game even if that's mean having some weakness ? I think both are valid way to build a team but smaller market have to be more creative so the later seems the better to me to take advantage of market inefficiency. If I was the GM, given the current core, I would build this team around mobile players with great courtvision, having the best passing team would be my goal.

A good cut that results in a score -- happens maybe 2 times per game for even the best cutters? Out of 200+ total possessions on both ends?

Maybe to be more clear, I should have said 'Impact the game at a high level with low usage' -- there is no world in which Avidja does that. At best, in a world where he is low or medium usage, he can be a non liability. A wash.

As for our team, Zion will be one of the highest usage players in the NBA. Again, CP3 type of usage isn't the only type of usage. Lonzo will initiate the offense a ton. Might not factor into usage because he won't get the shot or the assist, but he is going to touch it on every half court possession. Now, that doesn't mean I am advocating for two guys next to them who cant dribble, cant playmake. I am saying that those shouldn't be their best attributes. You want a good 4th or 5th option for those games when our studs are clamped down or off, but for those games when our studs are dominating as they should, they need to be go grab 10-14 rebounds or lock down another player or drill open catch and shoot shots off double teams, take charges, switch onto multiple guys defensively, set great screens, etc etc

And history says that it is much more likely you can draft a guy who has all those junk yard dog traits and start him off low usage (Kawhi, Siakam, Ibaka, etc) and gradually grow their offensive skill set vs take a guy who is offensively skilled and develop all those junk yard traits.

[Blattman]

A good cut that results in a score -- happens maybe 2 times per game for even the best cutters? Out of 200+ total possessions on both ends?

Maybe to be more clear, I should have said 'Impact the game at a high level with low usage' -- there is no world in which Avidja does that. At best, in a world where he is low or medium usage, he can be a non liability. A wash.

As for our team, Zion will be one of the highest usage players in the NBA. Again, CP3 type of usage isn't the only type of usage. Lonzo will initiate the offense a ton. Might not factor into usage because he won't get the shot or the assist, but he is going to touch it on every half court possession. Now, that doesn't mean I am advocating for two guys next to them who cant dribble, cant playmake. I am saying that those shouldn't be their best attributes. You want a good 4th or 5th option for those games when our studs are clamped down or off, but for those games when our studs are dominating as they should, they need to be go grab 10-14 rebounds or lock down another player or drill open catch and shoot shots off double teams, take charges, switch onto multiple guys defensively, set great screens, etc etc

And history says that it is much more likely you can draft a guy who has all those junk yard dog traits and start him off low usage (Kawhi, Siakam, Ibaka, etc) and gradually grow their offensive skill set vs take a guy who is offensively skilled and develop all those junk yard traits.

Actually the best cutters in the league average around 5 points per game from cuts. Capela is the best with 5.8, then Gobert with 5.1, then Zion 4.9. If you look into teams like Denver or Nola, they average around 15 points per game just from cuts (source : NBA.com/stats). And it doesn't take into account the oppotunities it creates by forcing defenders to chase and rotate onto cutters.

Now regarding Avidja as playing only off ball, is it the best use of his skillset ? Sure, it isn't, he needs to have the ball in his hand for some stretch. But if you start to do some research on him, you'll see that he's playing mostly off ball this year against grown men and he still averaging 7.7ppg, 4.1rpg and 1.7apg in 19.8mpg. Considering he's 18, I find hard to believe that you could be so adamant about his inability to have at least positive impact playing the same role in the NBA.

I think with the Pels' current core and if he confirms his ability to run effecitvely the PNR as ball handler, any decent coach should be able to create an oppotunity for him to run the PNR for at least 3 possession per game without hurting others' abilities to score.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Out of curiosity, how many times do you think Alvin subs with the thought of defense in mind? For example, what is the thought of replacing Zion with JJ?

Alvin wont be the coach when this team is actually a real contender, so that doesnt matter.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Actually the best cutters in the league average around 5 points per game from cuts. Capela is the best with 5.8, then Gobert with 5.1, then Zion 4.9. If you look into teams like Denver or Nola, they average around 15 points per game just from cuts (source : NBA.com/stats). And it doesn't take into account the oppotunities it creates by forcing defenders to chase and rotate onto cutters.

Now regarding Avidja as playing only off ball, is it the best use of his skillset ? Sure, it isn't, he needs to have the ball in his hand for some stretch. But if you start to do some research on him, you'll see that he's playing mostly off ball this year against grown men and he still averaging 7.7ppg, 4.1rpg and 1.7apg in 19.8mpg. Considering he's 18, I find hard to believe that you could be so adamant about his inability to have at least positive impact playing the same role in the NBA.

I think with the Pels' current core and if he confirms his ability to run effecitvely the PNR as ball handler, any decent coach should be able to create an oppotunity for him to run the PNR for at least 3 possession per game without hurting others' abilities to score.

Who is the best wing and guard "cutters" --- because by telling me the top 3 in the category you quoted, that tells me rolls and dump offs are obviously factoring into the equation. Many have called Jrue a great cutter. Rondo said he was the best he ever played with. How many points off cuts does he average? Multiply that x 0.8 and that would be my projection for Avidija. And that would be generous IMO

And again, you seem to be focusing on the vacuum. There are many teams I think Avdija would do well on. Heck, he's a top 10 prospect, top 5 to some. And yes, he could be fine here too. But its a matter of best fit, not whether he can be fine or not. Let me give you an example --- Caris LeVert vs Josh Hart. I think almost everyone would say LeVert is a better player in a vacuum. He was top 100 in a few NBA Rank things coming into the season, Josh Hart was nowhere to be found and likely would have struggled to make Top 200.

But on THIS team, especially the one with healthy Zion, I'd take Josh Hart 100 out of 100 times, wouldnt you? Because we dont need another iso scorer, another higher volume guy. Now, I am not saying Levert stinks or even that he is better than Hart. But you ask me to "draft" one of them right now for the next 5-8 years, and I take Hart. Similarly, you show me a highly skilled on ball offensive prospect with, at best, an average defensive ceiling, and questions about whether he can become a very good catch and shoot guy..... I would pass in favor of a guy whose profile screams multiple positional defender with catch and shoot capabilities, and a good chance to impact the game without ever touching the ball

[Blattman]

Who is the best wing and guard "cutters" --- because by telling me the top 3 in the category you quoted, that tells me rolls and dump offs are obviously factoring into the equation. Many have called Jrue a great cutter. Rondo said he was the best he ever played with. How many points off cuts does he average? Multiply that x 0.8 and that would be my projection for Avidija. And that would be generous IMO

And again, you seem to be focusing on the vacuum. There are many teams I think Avdija would do well on. Heck, he's a top 10 prospect, top 5 to some. And yes, he could be fine here too. But its a matter of best fit, not whether he can be fine or not. Let me give you an example --- Caris LeVert vs Josh Hart. I think almost everyone would say LeVert is a better player in a vacuum. He was top 100 in a few NBA Rank things coming into the season, Josh Hart was nowhere to be found and likely would have struggled to make Top 200.

But on THIS team, especially the one with healthy Zion, I'd take Josh Hart 100 out of 100 times, wouldnt you? Because we dont need another iso scorer, another higher volume guy. Now, I am not saying Levert stinks or even that he is better than Hart. But you ask me to "draft" one of them right now for the next 5-8 years, and I take Hart. Similarly, you show me a highly skilled on ball offensive prospect with, at best, an average defensive ceiling, and questions about whether he can become a very good catch and shoot guy..... I would pass in favor of a guy whose profile screams multiple positional defender with catch and shoot capabilities, and a good chance to impact the game without ever touching the ball

You do realize that you are making conflicting arguments, right ? Because you spent so much time arguing about why people should always favors BPA over fit because roster will evolve 2 years from now, and now you oppose that you prefer a defender because the profile fits better with the current roster ?

You're asking for having numbers for ppg for guards and wings (I was almost about to use this but since I'm feeling nice, it's Ben Simmons with 3.3ppg) while I previously stated that I see Avidja as a small ball 4.

I mean there are two possibilities, either I am really dense or you are just trolling now. Maybe it's on me but it's unfortunate so far I found our exchange cordial and interesting.

[MichaelMcNamara]

You do realize that you are making conflicting arguments, right ? Because you spent so much time arguing about why people should always favors BPA over fit because roster will evolve 2 years from now, and now you oppose that you prefer a defender because the profile fits better with the current roster ?

You're asking for having numbers for ppg for guards and wings (I was almost about to use this but since I'm feeling nice, it's Ben Simmons with 3.3ppg) while I previously stated that I see Avidja as a small ball 4.

I mean there are two possibilities, either I am really dense or you are just trolling now. Maybe it's on me but it's unfortunate so far I found our exchange cordial and interesting.

I know it appears that way on the surface, but I have explained this in the past.

BPA vs Drafting for POSITION -- I always go BPA if there is a gap.

But when I have no doubt core players like Zion and Ingram, then I have to consider skill set. Most teams dont have no doubt core players - guys they KNOW will be there for the next 4+ years. Like, if I were Atlanta, I factor Trae Young into the equation and I wouldnt take LaMelo Ball in this draft. But LaMelo is also unlikely to be a clear BPA over everybody else on the board when they pick

And LaMelo wouldnt become the player with the Hawks that he could become with several other teams. So, if that is the case, is he truly the BPA for the Hawks? My argument before was you dont just take a position of need. Most people see a hole in the wing and/or a need eventually for a 2 guard for when Jrue gets old and just want to draft the absolute best guy for that "position" and that is what I disagree with. But what I do agree with is that you need to know what skill sets will get boosts next to Zion and Ingram and what skill sets wont be utilized as much with them as the core, and you factor that in

So, for me, I am not looking at positions at all when I draft, but yes I do factor in skill sets if I have guaranteed, long term core players. Most teams dont have those guys, so they can think of their roster as empty. We have two guaranteed core players and both are higher usage, so yes, I will factor that one component in to differentiate guys in the same tier

[Eman5805]

Alvin wont be the coach when this team is actually a real contender, so that doesnt matter.

He's gonna get yet another reprieve and coach into next season, and that annoys me to no end.

[MichaelMcNamara]

He's gonna get yet another reprieve and coach into next season, and that annoys me to no end.

Maybe. I think it comes down to Griffin and other decision makers being in love with someone else more than how they feel about Gentry as a care taker.

If someone they really, really want is available and interested this offseason, I think they'd make the move. But even worse than keeping Gentry another year, IMO, is to get rid of him just to get rid of him and get some guy you don't love but have to lock him in for 4 years. Whoever the next coach is, you want him to be the guy for the next 10 years. Another change 18 months from now would be terrible considering how young our roster is. You gotta make sure the next guy is the right guy and thats hard to do. When you have to nail it, most people in life (not just sports) turn to someone they are familiar with. That would make Tyron Lue and Kenny Atkinson the overwhelming favorites. Personally, I believe Jay Wright could be one of the college coaches that could transition and he would be my target (with a lead assistant that has HC experience, who could help him learn some of the logistics that college coaches tend to struggle with)

Point is.....many say Gentry coming back is the worst case scenario. They say anybody would be better. I disagree. Changing for change sake could really hurt the franchise. But if they identify someone they think can be that guy for the next decade, I agree they should make the move this summer. But the press release won't say "fired".... it will be mutual or Gentry retires or Gentry is reassigned. That is one thing I am very confident about.

[Fedupfan]

Maybe. I think it comes down to Griffin and other decision makers being in love with someone else more than how they feel about Gentry as a care taker.

If someone they really, really want is available and interested this offseason, I think they'd make the move. But even worse than keeping Gentry another year, IMO, is to get rid of him just to get rid of him and get some guy you don't love but have to lock him in for 4 years. Whoever the next coach is, you want him to be the guy for the next 10 years. Another change 18 months from now would be terrible considering how young our roster is. You gotta make sure the next guy is the right guy and thats hard to do. When you have to nail it, most people in life (not just sports) turn to someone they are familiar with. That would make Tyron Lue and Kenny Atkinson the overwhelming favorites. Personally, I believe Jay Wright could be one of the college coaches that could transition and he would be my target (with a lead assistant that has HC experience, who could help him learn some of the logistics that college coaches tend to struggle with)

Point is.....many say Gentry coming back is the worst case scenario. They say anybody would be better. I disagree. Changing for change sake could really hurt the franchise. But if they identify someone they think can be that guy for the next decade, I agree they should make the move this summer. But the press release won't say "fired".... it will be mutual or Gentry retires or Gentry is reassigned. That is one thing I am very confident about.

This is exactly how I feel. I do not like Gentry as the coach for this team. But, I don’t think they should fire him without a noticeably better upgrade. He’s a great person and all the signs seem to point to players liking him. So, a move to the front office would be good for all parties. With that being said, the Pels should target long wings that can defend if Gentry returns. Don’t give him the ability to play 4 guards at once. I’m not sure how many coaches do that, but it seems to be completely irresponsible in a league where wings can dribble and shoot like guards. For example, Hart and JJ were on Galo a lot in the OKC series. I can’t help but think a guy like Okoro or even Obi Toppin would be a huge get. The Pels will most likely select after those guys are gone, so a guy named Precious might also be a nice addition. What’s your take on Achiuwa?

Anyways, thanks for the insight fellas. It’s been fun to read the back and forth during these trying times. Stay safe.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Let me give a tangible example of how I would decide in the draft room. Lets say Obi Toppin vs Precious Achiuwa vs Josh Green

My Choice: Josh Green

Logic: In a battle of Green vs Toppin, I have them in the same tier with regard to how I envision their ceiling as well as their likely floors. I don't see either as future All Stars, but definitely think they are rotation players for a decade, give or take a few years depending on health. But I think Green can impact the game without the ball more and can guard more positions.

In the battle of Green vs. Precious, I have them both as guys who can effect the game without the ball and defend multiple positions. However, I have Green in a higher tier, with both a higher ceiling and a higher floor.

My guess, however, is that many would reach for the 3/4 in this scenario. Maybe not Precious. Maybe its McDaniels or Tyler Bey, whomever. The logic would be: We already have Lonzo, Jrue, NAW, and Didi on the way. Not to mention JJ. We don't need another guard!

The way I approach the draft, none of those guys are on my roster, so I don't artificially bump up the 3/4 past Josh Green just because I am already loaded at guard for the 2020 season.

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

The guy I am liking more and more every day is Patrick Williams from FSU. I think he'd be my top realistic target if we were at 12 or 13. He is a strong dude who has a lot of junkyard dog in his game but also a solid skill set to go with it. His handle looks solid and his stroke is pure. Right now, he is all arms on his jumper (which works for him at the FT line) but once he solidifies his base and uses his lower body better, I think he will be a great shooter.

Can guard the 3 and 4. Can rebound outside of his area. Runs the floor well, finishes well. Oh all the small forwards and combo forwards (Okoro, McDaniels, Avdija, both Bey kids, Nesmith) ... I think he would top my list. They might all have a ceiling as role players, but if you told me one of those guys took the Paul George or even Jaylen Brown path of starting off as a defensive first guy but blossomed into a 20ppg game, I'd bet on Williams.

Do you not think the Pel's already have a guy similar to PW who they could develop?
Zylan Cheatham has junkyard dog in his game.
He is 6'8" (even though he is incorrectly listed at 6'5")

[MichaelMcNamara]

Do you not think the Pel's already have a guy similar to PW who they could develop?
Zylan Cheatham has junkyard dog in his game.
He is 6'8" (even though he is incorrectly listed at 6'5")

COULD?

Sure. Just like some thought Russ Smith or Pierre Jackson or Patric Young and many, many other 2nd round or undrafted gems could emerge for us at some point.

We always want to believe in the underdog, the long shot. Some still think Trevon Blueitt could make it or that Bryce Dejean Jones would have been a good player eventually if not for his untimely death

But for every 1 guy who comes out of nowhere like that and is a real rotation piece on a good team, there are 50 or more who do nothing. I gotta play the odds here. And you know what, if I draft William's and Cheatham defies all the odds and makes it, then that is a good problem to have, no?

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

COULD?

Sure. Just like some thought Russ Smith or Pierre Jackson or Patric Young and many, many other 2nd round or undrafted gems could emerge for us at some point.

We always want to believe in the underdog, the long shot. Some still think Trevon Blueitt could make it or that Bryce Dejean Jones would have been a good player eventually if not for his untimely death

But for every 1 guy who comes out of nowhere like that and is a real rotation piece on a good team, there are 50 or more who do nothing. I gotta play the odds here. And you know what, if I draft William's and Cheatham defies all the odds and makes it, then that is a good problem to have, no?

Agreed.
Just can't see them drafting 3 guy's in the 2020 draft, adding Didi and then a guy like Cheatham.

What's your feeling with the 3 picks?
Combine 2 or all 3 and stash 1?

[MichaelMcNamara]

Agreed.
Just can't see them drafting 3 guy's in the 2020 draft, adding Didi and then a guy like Cheatham.

What's your feeling with the 3 picks?
Combine 2 or all 3 and stash 1?

We have 4 picks. And yes, Didi too

If I had to bet, they package their pick and Washingtons pick and try to move up. The Milwaukee pick is sold or used as a stash. They could also trade their second for future 2nds and kick the can down the road

But yes, you are starting to see the issue with stockpiling picks. This team can have 2-4 rookies on the roster every year. The math just doesn't work.

One other thing to watch is Didi basically signed a 2 year deal overseas. He can get out after 1, but Langdon has a great relationship with the team. There is a possibility that all.parties could agree to have him develop there for 1 more year

[MichaelMcNamara]

And there are some interesting draft and stash guys, for what its worth Abdoulaye N'Doye has a perfect frame for a wing. Leandro Balmaro is a guy I am sure Trajan will love. And my favorite is Amar Sylla

Not to mention, American guys are more and more open to stashing for a year if you overdraft them. Teams call the agent of a guy who is projected to go 45-50 (But might fall out of draft if things go wrong) and say "We will take your guy at 39 if he agrees to play overseas for a season". You will find a few guys who agree to that, and if you have that guy on the same tier as the guys who are left on the board at 39, you take him and can stash him.

Not to mention, we should have our own (more local) G League team next year and that allows us to develop a 2nd rounder or two. Just sucks you have to use a roster spot for that. You take a guy at 60 and sign him and put him on G League team all season, that takes up a roster spot. But you find an undrafted guy and sign him to a 2-way and have him in G League all year and it doesn't use a roster spot. Makes having the 60th pick kind of a negative

[Pelicanidae]

And there are some interesting draft and stash guys, for what its worth Abdoulaye N'Doye has a perfect frame for a wing. Leandro Balmaro is a guy I am sure Trajan will love. And my favorite is Amar Sylla

Not to mention, American guys are more and more open to stashing for a year if you overdraft them. Teams call the agent of a guy who is projected to go 45-50 (But might fall out of draft if things go wrong) and say "We will take your guy at 39 if he agrees to play overseas for a season". You will find a few guys who agree to that, and if you have that guy on the same tier as the guys who are left on the board at 39, you take him and can stash him.

Not to mention, we should have our own (more local) G League team next year and that allows us to develop a 2nd rounder or two. Just sucks you have to use a roster spot for that. You take a guy at 60 and sign him and put him on G League team all season, that takes up a roster spot. But you find an undrafted guy and sign him to a 2-way and have him in G League all year and it doesn't use a roster spot. Makes having the 60th pick kind of a negative

Bolmaro gets my endorsement as well. Really good prospect from everything I've seen on him. I like Sylla, but I'm not enamoured with him; definitely worth a second round pick for a stash. Bolmaro, on the other hand, is FRP quality. He probably won't go in the first round for a bunch of obvious reasons, but the talent is there imo.

[Pelicanidae]

Just figured I'd put this up here in case anyone was interested in looking at it (I certainly was). It's the 2020 NCAA PIPM rankings. Obviously attach all the relevant caveats regarding one-number metrics, and also remember that PIPM doesn't measure ''quality of player'' but ''impact created in role'', which can obviously be different things.

Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...foHsc/htmlview

Just for the sake of quick access for those who don't want to bother going to the link, here's the PIPM numbers of a bunch of highly discussed or predicted-to-go-high players:

- Anthony Edwards: +3.67
- Isaac Okoro: +3.61
- James Wiseman: +2.18 (super small sample warning!)
- Onyeka Okongwu: +7.3
- Obi Toppin: +6.87
- Col Anthony: +3.17
- Tyrese Haliburton: +5.91
- Tyrese Maxey: +2.77
- Devin Vassell: +6.23
- Aaron Nesmith: +4.76
- Nico Mannion: +4.02
- Josh Green: +4.45
- Saddiq Bey: +4.79
- Devon Dotson: +6.92
- Jalen Smith: +7.72
- Xavier Tillman: +8.23
- Grant Riller: +3.63
- Killian Tillie: +4.22