4th February - New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwaukee Bucks - 20-30

[Pelicanidae]

It's moments like that where, ever so briefly, I do wonder how we'd fare if we had a more offensive creator instead of Jrue. But his defense is too valuable as well.

Shamit from BSS was wondering on Twitter the other day what the absolute prime fit with Zion would be from a guard, and he basically comes to the conclusion that it would be a solid passer but more importantly, someone who would be nuclear as a shooter off the dribble. The kind of guy who you are forced to trap or blitz at the screen, or risk getting fried. Examples he gives are Lillard or Kemba.

I do think there's a lot of truth there. Jrue's defense is absolutely important and I think a lot of people overlook it way too easily, but it seems fairly clear that in terms of offensive fit, a dynamic off the dribble shooter like a Lillard would be better.

[Eman5805]

Shamit from BSS was wondering on Twitter the other day what the absolute prime fit with Zion would be from a guard, and he basically comes to the conclusion that it would be a solid passer but more importantly, someone who would be nuclear as a shooter off the dribble. The kind of guy who you are forced to trap or blitz at the screen, or risk getting fried. Examples he gives are Lillard or Kemba.

I do think there's a lot of truth there. Jrue's defense is absolutely important and I think a lot of people overlook it way too easily, but it seems fairly clear that in terms of offensive fit, a dynamic off the dribble shooter like a Lillard would be better.

In my head, I picture Zion setting a screen and the whole defense almost carks its pants. Because if they don't harry the ballhandler, he's going to get to the rim and score, if they don't show enough, he'll just pull up and knock down a jumper, and if they crash too hard, Zion is going to get an easy layup, dunk, or fouled and sent to the stripe.

[luckyman]

It's moments like that where, ever so briefly, I do wonder how we'd fare if we had a more offensive creator instead of Jrue. But his defense is too valuable as well.

His defense is not valuable because he does not generate enough stops on his own to make up for his highly erratic offense and turnovers. He gave up 4 more turnovers tonight.

He only played 29 minutes as the team's highest paid player. I'd usually be mad at that, but I'm not even. He deserved less.

Wes Matthews scored 17 and had 0 turnovers. We get at least that out of Jrue tonight and it's a one possession game.

[Pelicanidae]

All-Star forward Khris Middleton on Zion’s potential: “He’s a beast man. He’s going to have a heck of a career. He just creates so much force in that paint with the ball in his hands. He’s gonna learn how to be a better player also which is a scary thing to see.”

— Trevor Ritchie (@ritchietmr) February 5, 2020

[Eman5805]

His defense is not valuable because he does not generate enough stops on his own to make up for his highly erratic offense and turnovers. He gave up 4 more turnovers tonight.

He only played 29 minutes as the team's highest paid player. I'd usually be mad at that, but I'm not even. He deserved less.

Wes Matthews scored 17 and had 0 turnovers. We get at least that out of Jrue tonight and it's a one possession game.

His offense is erratic because we're requiring on him to be something he just isn't capable of being.

[Pelicanidae]

In my head, I picture Zion setting a screen and the whole defense almost carks its pants. Because if they don't harry the ballhandler, he's going to get to the rim and score, if they don't show enough, he'll just pull up and knock down a jumper, and if they crash too hard, Zion is going to get an easy layup, dunk, or fouled and sent to the stripe.

Imagine being forced to defend a Lillard/Zion pick and roll with Ingram and Redick spotting up. You might as well quit.

The thing about Zion is that he's such a mismatch for anyone. Like you said, when he rolls, he's layup, dunk, or foul. The effect a truly nuclear shooter would have on that would be essentially to split a defense in half trying to make up its mind.

[luckyman]

His offense is erratic because we're requiring on him to be something he just isn't capable of being.

I dont think they are. He's taken a back seat to BI and Zion. BI had a two game slump when Zion came back but he's snapped out of it.

Jrue, however, goes 8-28, 1-11 from 3, and a combined 18 points over these last two games against playoff teams. Now add 8 turnovers and 11 assists.

Thats just putrid no matter how you cut it.

[Pelicanidae]

I dont think they are. He's taken a back seat to BI and Zion. BI had a two game slump when Zion came back but he's snapped out of it.

Jrue, however, goes 8-28, 1-11 from 3, and a combined 18 points over these last two games against playoff teams. Now add 8 turnovers and 11 assists.

Thats just putrid no matter how you cut it.

BI had 7 game slump that preceded Zion's return by 4 full games. In the 4 games before Zion came back, Ingram shot 44.4% from the floor, 33.3% from 3, and 82% from the FT line; all well below his averages on the season. If you include the 3 games after Zion returned, you get a 7 game stretch where Ingram hit the under on his season's averages for points and rebounds, while shooting 39/33/81 in terms of splits. It was a much larger slump than you acknowledge.

This 7 game stretch included a 4/15 game, as well as a 6/22 game that was immediately followed by a 3/11 game. These games are also putrid. And of course, during this stretch, Ingram's defense was not even close to Jrue's.

But for some reason, when Ingram has it, it's a slump; he'll snap out of it. When Jrue has it, we have to light the franchise on fire.

[luckyman]

BI had 7 game slump that preceded Zion's return by 4 full games. In the 4 games before Zion came back, Ingram shot 44.4% from the floor, 33.3% from 3, and 82% from the FT line; all well below his averages on the season. If you include the 3 games after Zion returned, you get a 7 game stretch where Ingram hit the under on his season's averages for points and rebounds, while shooting 39/33/81 in terms of splits. It was a much larger slump than you acknowledge.

This 7 game stretch included a 4/15 game, as well as a 6/22 game that was immediately followed by a 3/11 game. These games are also putrid. And of course, during this stretch, Ingram's defense was not even close to Jrue's.

But for some reason, when Ingram has it, it's a slump; he'll snap out of it. When Jrue has it, we have to light the franchise on fire.

No clue of what you're talking about. You seem to be just reading off random stats as a group and clumping them all together as if that defines a "slump."

In 4 games before Zion came back:

@Boston-- 4-15, 3-8, 15 points, 5 assists, 5 turnovers (missing Zion, Redick, Favors, Holiday)
Utah-- 15-25, 3-8, 49 points, 6 assists, 4 turnovers
LAC-- 7-18, 2-8, 25 points, 6 assists, 4 turnovers
@Memphis-- 6-14, 2-6, 25 points, 6 assists, 2 turnovers
San Antonio-- 6-22, 2-8, 22 points, 2 assists, 2 turnovers (Zion 1st game)
Denver-- 3-11, 1-5, 13 points, 5 assists, 4 turnovers (Zion 2nd game)
Boston--5-13, 3-5, 16 points, 3 assists, 3 turnovers

Outside of the 1st Boston game and the 2 games when Zion first came back, I don't know wtf you're talking about. There is no 7 game slump anywhere close in there. Even on poor shooting nights he managed to get to the line and score 20+ points still. You managed to completely leave out the fact that in 2 of the 4 games before Zion came back, he got to the line 20 and 12 freakin times.

No clue where you pulled that from.

[Pelicanidae]

No clue of what you're talking about. You seem to be just reading off random stats as a group and clumping them all together as if that defines a "slump."

Outside of the 1st Boston game and the 2 games when Zion first came back, I don't know wtf you're talking about. There is no 7 game slump anywhere close in there. Even on poor shooting nights he managed to get to the line and score 20+ points still. You managed to completely leave out the fact that in 2 of the 4 games before Zion came back, he got to the line 20 and 12 freakin times.

No clue where you pulled that from.

You're holding the two to completely different standards.

When Ingram has a bunch of inefficient shooting nights, you argue (as you've done here) that actually it's not a slump even though his efficiency from both the field and from three took a massive and sustained dip, because he got to the line a lot and shot well from there, which offset his bad shooting and let him get up over 20 points..

When Jrue has inefficient shooting stretches, you completely ignore the fact that he's the best perimeter defender on the team by a wide margin, and is the only member of the roster who can consistently playmake for others out of the pick and roll. For some reason, these things do not offset Jrue's poor shooting nights in the same way that Ingram's none-shooting contributions do.

That is, when Ingram shoots poorly from the floor, you make excuses for why actually that's fine. When Jrue shoots poorly from the floor, you crucify the dude. I'm tempted to say it's just because Ingram's other contributions show up more directly in the form of box-score-points whereas Jrue's other contributions don't (defense, primarily), but I'm going to give you the credit of assuming that's not what's happening.

[msusousaphone]

Almost an hour after the game ended, Jrue Holiday is still out here getting shots up. He’s obviously frustrated after another rough shooting night. pic.twitter.com/nzDU6uOVBn

— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) February 5, 2020

Man. I respect Jrue so much. Hope he gets his mojo back.

[luckyman]

You're holding the two to completely different standards.

When Ingram has a bunch of inefficient shooting nights, you argue (as you've done here) that actually it's not a slump even though his efficiency from both the field and from three took a massive and sustained dip, because he got to the line a lot and shot well from there, which offset his bad shooting and let him get up over 20 points..

When Jrue has inefficient shooting stretches, you completely ignore the fact that he's the best perimeter defender on the team by a wide margin, and is the only member of the roster who can consistently playmake for others out of the pick and roll. For some reason, these things do not offset Jrue's poor shooting nights in the same way that Ingram's none-shooting contributions do.

That is, when Ingram shoots poorly from the floor, you make excuses for why actually that's fine. When Jrue shoots poorly from the floor, you crucify the dude. I'm tempted to say it's just because Ingram's other contributions show up more directly in the form of box-score-points whereas Jrue's other contributions don't (defense, primarily), but I'm going to give you the credit of assuming that's not what's happening.

Those are your definitions. Being more "inefficient" than your average does not define a slump when said player still positively affects the game in other demostrable ways.

Even on nights when Ingram was "inefficient" from the field, he made up for it by attacking and getting to the free throw line.

On nights when he's been "inefficient", he still manages to score in the teens at least.

During this putrid stretch for Holiday, he has only gotten to the line 4 times.

Ingram is also a 4th year player on a new team while Holiday is a 10 year vet.

You simply have to be insane to try and compare Jrue's last two games to anything Ingram has done. Ingram has looked like an all star. Jrue has looked like a g league player.

Thats just a fact.

[Pelicanidae]

Those are your definitions. Being more "inefficient" than your average does not define a slump when said player still positively affects the game in other demostrable ways.

Even on nights when Ingram was "inefficient" from the field, he made up for it by attacking and getting foul calls.

Even on nights when Jrue has been inefficient as a scorer, he has been the single best perimeter defender on the team, taking the other teams toughest assignment regardless of position, and doing a good job of it. That's what I'm saying. The fact that you keep crediting Ingram with his foul calls but refusing to credit Jrue his defense just makes it look like all you notice is points.

You simply have to be insane to try and compare Jrue's last two games to anything Ingram has done. Ingram has looked like an all star. Jrue has looked like a g league player.

Thats just a fact.

I'm not even going to argue with this. The arrogance of declaring something highly subjective (that is, how a player ''looks'') to be ''just a fact'' and saying that anyone who disagrees is simply ''insane''... just pointless to even have a discussion with, frankly.

[luckyman]

Even on nights when Jrue has been inefficient as a scorer, he has been the single best perimeter defender on the team, taking the other teams toughest assignment regardless of position, and doing a good job of it. That's what I'm saying. The fact that you keep crediting Ingram with his foul calls but refusing to credit Jrue his defense just makes it look like all you notice is points.



I'm not even going to argue with this. The arrogance of declaring something highly subjective (that is, how a player ''looks'') to be ''just a fact'' and saying that anyone who disagrees is simply ''insane''... just pointless to even have a discussion with, frankly.

And I've said time and time again, Jrue getting a couple stops has had no positive value when he plays so poorly on the other end. Not just the lack of scoring but the turnovers as well. HE better be playing all world lock down defense to make up for that deficit. He isnt.

You tell me, what positive value did his defense do in 29 minutes against Milwaukee tonight? What did it do against Houston where Harden still dropped 40 and shot BETTER than he had been shooting recently? Milwaukee still put up 123 points and Houston 117.

Ingram has done his part. Jrue has not.

This is so damn obvious, you're right, I'm sure not wasting time arguing this anymore.

[new city champ]

I love Jrue’s work ethic and he’ll rebound but I still say this group needs a shooting guard who can shoot. It’s a better match. Jrue’s value is high. This might be the moment to extract max value in a trade for a true shooter to match with BI and Zion.

[Pelicanidae]

I love Jrue’s work ethic and he’ll rebound but I still say this group needs a shooting guard who can shoot. It’s a better match. Jrue’s value is high. This might be the moment to extract max value in a trade for a true shooter to match with BI and Zion.

Sure. Suggest a shooting guard that can really shoot, who is on the market that isn't a total disaster defensively and can do a little playmaking, who won't require us to also offload other assets and then we can talk. I don't think anyone is completely 100% forbidding a Jrue trade. It's just that, like you said, you want to extract value. Jrue is, as hard as some people on this board might find it to believe, a good basketball player. Don't trade him for trash or scraps.

[new city champ]

Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat. As part of a package. Just to name one. None good enough for straight up trade.

[Nichols]

And I've said time and time again, Jrue getting a couple stops has had no positive value when he plays so poorly on the other end. Not just the lack of scoring but the turnovers as well. HE better be playing all world lock down defense to make up for that deficit. He isnt.

You tell me, what positive value did his defense do in 29 minutes against Milwaukee tonight? What did it do against Houston where Harden still dropped 40 and shot BETTER than he had been shooting recently? Milwaukee still put up 123 points and Houston 117.

Ingram has done his part. Jrue has not.

This is so damn obvious, you're right, I'm sure not wasting time arguing this anymore.

[Pelicanidae]

Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat. As part of a package. Just to name one. None good enough for straight up trade.

Exactly.

Which means if you want to make that trade, you have to put one together out of various pieces. Which is fine, but then you run into a lot of difficulty. As discussed in the Trade Jrue thread, Miami has none of their picks, so they'd have to add value in terms of other players which means Tyler Herro and possibly Winslow as well. Which means we've now traded our 1 guard for 2 guards (and possibly 3 when it comes to absorbing required salary like Waiters) on a team that already has 40 thousand shooting guards, and we don't have any halfcourt ballhandler of consistency. So ideally you'd also want to send out someone like Frank as well.

So then that Heat trade tells you that you probably need to make another trade too, clearing out some guards. Might demand a Moore trade, at that point. Again, that's perfectly possible, but it's not as easy as just saying ''trade Jrue!!!'' and then hoping that something will materialise. It's not going to.

[new city champ]

Just sticking with the Heat hypothetical, the trade could center on Robinson, Winslow and Leonard with us sending Jrue and Jah back. I'd also be ok with taking a first rounder in out years, though I'm not clear on the exact year Miami can next trade a first rounder. Seems to be some contradictory information on that.

Anyway, to your larger point, yes the sacrifice is there in terms of a half-court ball handler, a pick and role capability, a first-team All NBA defender (who I'd note doesn't really make our defense that good) and a good guy and good locker room veteran. So why do it? Shooting. I'm after a specific metric to go with Zion and Brandon and it's elite spot up shooting from behind the arc and elite FT shooting in our 3rd option shooting guard. That's why. Heck, Miami plays Robinson at SG and just runs a lot of 2-3 zone to good effect.

In terms of timing I'd just note there seems to be an annual back and forth about whether you get more value at the trade deadline or in the off season--and it always seems to be the opposite time from the time you're in. With Davis there were a lot of pixels put up here around this time last year assuring everyone the offers would be better in the off season. I'll say now what I said a year ago with Davis. A lot can change over a few months. People get hurt. Values alter. The unexpected happens. Sometimes it's better not to be too patient.