NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

[Pelicanidae]

If I had to bet on someone who isn't shooting great right now being a really good shooter, I would bet on Nico Mannion. He has a versatile jumper which he gets off quickly, really good touch, and shoots well from the line. I think he ends up being a high 30s type of guy in the NBA on high volume and he has enough juice in terms of ballhandling and passing to leverage that into being able to threaten defenses. I don't think he's a star, but I'd be surprised if he isn't a 10 year NBA player.

Oh I agree, and Mannion is actually the exception because his 3pt% has been dragged down by a couple of particularly awful games but has been otherwise pretty good. He shot 42% on about 4.5 attempts per game for his first 11 games, and then had an awful 1-10 showing against Gonzaga that dragged his percentages way down. He's an 85% FT shooter, which I think bodes well for him further down the line as a shooter.

I'm a Mannion fan (as my sig implies ) and if we end up picking somewhere like 7th, he's a target of mine. Like you said, really good touch, great jumper with a quick release. He's a brilliant passer as well, I know you say he has enough juice there but I'd actually regard that a little higher. His patience as a passer is particularly impressive as well, and his off-ball movement opens up a lot of threats even when he's not directing the offense himself.

Gonna be a good guy. Like you say, probably won't ever be a top 10 player or anything, but he can be a solid player in the NBA for a decade which is more than a lot of guys can say.

[As I See It]

Comparing the top four point guards

http://www.tankathon.com/players/com...--nico-mannion

[Pelicanidae]

If you want an example of how bad this draft is:

In the 2021 draft, there are a number of people/draft sites/etc who currently have guys like Jalen Suggs ranked around 10th.

Suggs would be the clear #1 in this year's draft, without much argument.

Right now ESPN has BJ Boston ranked 12th on their recruits board. Boston would be a clear #1 pick candidate in this year's draft; in 2021, he's outside looking in on the top 5.

[Pelicanidae]

Having some unclear thoughts about this draft at the minute.

Seeing tonight's game, where Maxey completely outplayed Antman (especially on defense, where Antman was embarrassingly lazy) has me really thinking if I can justify Antman at #1.

The issue is that if he's not #1, who is? Because it's not like there's a clear #2.

[Pelicanidae]

Just a quick box score comparison from this game:

Tyrese Maxey: 17pts, 7rbds, 8asts, 1stl, 4blks, shot 7/15 from the floor, 1/3 from 3, really good defense
Antman: 23pts, 5rbds, 2asts, 0stls, 0blks, shot 8/17 from the floor, 3/9 from 3, awful awful awful defense

[Biasvasospasm]

Having some unclear thoughts about this draft at the minute.

Seeing tonight's game, where Maxey completely outplayed Antman (especially on defense, where Antman was embarrassingly lazy) has me really thinking if I can justify Antman at #1.

The issue is that if he's not #1, who is? Because it's not like there's a clear #2.

There just isn't a guy. It's just like 2013. If you're taking Edwards, it's because he has the best physical profile and has the highest star potential. But how different is he than, for example, Tyreke Evans as a prospect? More explosive (though young Tyreke was pretty athletic). Further along as a shooter but with much worse shot selection. Not as good as a passer. Same defensive issues. If you take him, you're essentially saying you want a do-over on Tyreke Evans career.

[Pelicanidae]

There just isn't a guy. It's just like 2013. If you're taking Edwards, it's because he has the best physical profile and has the highest star potential. But how different is he than, for example, Tyreke Evans as a prospect? More explosive (though young Tyreke was pretty athletic). Further along as a shooter but with much worse shot selection. Not as good as a passer. Same defensive issues. If you take him, you're essentially saying you want a do-over on Tyreke Evans career.

I guess. I mean, if you did take Antman at #1, it's not like anyone could tell you that was the wrong choice. He's got an argument for it. Especially, as you say, projecting forward with potential; he has a good frame for defense and when he tries he looks good especially as a weakside rim protector, but his motor just runs so low and he lacks the offensive dynamism to really counterbalance that.

2020 draft is a baaaad draft haha. 2021 is gonna be fire though

[Biasvasospasm]

I guess. I mean, if you did take Antman at #1, it's not like anyone could tell you that was the wrong choice. He's got an argument for it. Especially, as you say, projecting forward with potential; he has a good frame for defense and when he tries he looks good especially as a weakside rim protector, but his motor just runs so low and he lacks the offensive dynamism to really counterbalance that.

2020 draft is a baaaad draft haha. 2021 is gonna be fire though

I didn't realize until looking it up how statistically similar he is to Tyreke Evans at Memphis. Built the same, too, with essentially the same frame and giant wingspan. The main differences are that Tyreke shot way less jumpshots and was a slightly worse jump shooter, got to the line more, and had slightly higher rates of steals, blocks, rebounds, assists, and turnovers. Adjusting for era of basketball, it's really, really similar. Comparing what's available for both:

Tyreke Evans/Anthony Edwards
Points per 40 min 23.6/25.0
Assist per 40 5.3/4.4
Steal per 40 2.9/2.2
Block per 40 1.1/0.8
Turnover per 40 5.1/3.4
FG% .455/.409
eFG% .489/.475
TS% .529/.514
FtR .384/.305
3pAr .246/.419
Usage 33.1/31.6
TRb% 10.2/8.6
Ast% 30.0/20.8

And there's a chance that Tyreke could have had a much better career if he were wired differently and struggled less with injury (with that said, the motor, defensive, basketball IQ stuff is very reminiscent, too).

[Pelicanidae]

I didn't realize until looking it up how statistically similar he is to Tyreke Evans at Memphis. Built the same, too, with essentially the same frame and giant wingspan. The main differences are that Tyreke shot way less jumpshots and was a slightly worse jump shooter, got to the line more, and had slightly higher rates of steals, blocks, rebounds, assists, and turnovers. Adjusting for era of basketball, it's really, really similar. Comparing what's available for both:

Tyreke Evans/Anthony Edwards
Points per 40 min 23.6/25.0
Assist per 40 5.3/4.4
Steal per 40 2.9/2.2
Block per 40 1.1/0.8
Turnover per 40 5.1/3.4
FG% .455/.409
eFG% .489/.475
TS% .529/.514
FtR .384/.305
3pAr .246/.419
Usage 33.1/31.6
TRb% 10.2/8.6
Ast% 30.0/20.8

And there's a chance that Tyreke could have had a much better career if he were wired differently and struggled less with injury (with that said, the motor, defensive, basketball IQ stuff is very reminiscent, too).

True about Tyreke, and obviously potential can always come through and Antman definitely does have poetntial, he shows signs of being really good here and there.

Honestly, wish we could just skip to 2021. There are like, 7 or 8 different guys in that class who would be the clear #1 this year.

[GuardianAngel25]

LaMelo Ball and we are set going forward.

[PELICANSFAN]

LaMelo Ball and we are set going forward.

Not sure on him. His FG% is atrocious and I think he is hurt now. Going to be hard to get an accurate read on him.

[Pelicanidae]

Not sure on him. His FG% is atrocious and I think he is hurt now. Going to be hard to get an accurate read on him.

Damn near everything about his game is atrocious, from his shooting to his shot selection to his defense. He's a next level passer but that's about it. If you draft LaMelo, you're doing so on the assumption that you can fix a lot of the holes in his game. Maybe you can. He is one of the younger players in the draft. But it's far from "draft him and we're set!" He's two or three years away at best.

[Pelicanidae]

I feel like my current draft board looks something like this:

1) Anthony Edwards
2) Isaac Okoro
3) Tyrese Maxey
4) Nico Mannion
5) Onyeka Okongwu
6) Killian Hayes
7) Cole Anthony
8) LaMelo Ball
9) Deni Avdija
10) RJ Hampton
11) Tyrese Haliburton
12) Paul Reed
13) Theo Maledon
14) Killian Tillie
15) Devin Vassell
16) Kira Lewis Jr
17) Josh Green
18) Oscar Thsiebwe
19) Devon Dotson
20) Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

I cut it off at 20 because honestly there's too many.

And, in fairness, I feel like there are a few tiers in this which are very fluid. So Josh Green could easily be 15th instead of 17th, for example, and Okongwu could easily be 3rd instead of 5th, and Ball could easily swap places with Haliburton.

Some of these players I haven't watched a ton of, and obviously we are still very early in the year, so this is extremely tentative and subject to change. It might even change by the end of next week

But that's roughly where I'm at as of today.

[Pelicanidae]

You know, I've already changed my mind. I think I'm sticking too strongly with Antman because of my pre-college evaluations and his really good early showings, and it's colouring my perspective and making me forgive his weaknesses too much. At the same time, I feel like my general scepticism of drafting bigs high in today's league is making me undervalue Okongwu, despite my love for him.

Maybe a top 5 more like

1) Maxey
2) Okoro
3) Okongwu
4) Antman
5) Mannion?

Even that, I'm not entirely happy with. Part of me just wants to be super brave and just go with Okoro + Okongwu as 1 + 2 but I feel like that's too gutsy for this early in the year Maybe in February.

[carpo]

Lamelo Ball....

As a self-employed sydney-sider , with a cousin who played for Illawarra/ Wollongong few years back I am in the position to watch quite a bit of NBL/ college ball, and keep a keen eye on the hawks. Sometime in November I decided to make sure I kept a keen eye on LaMelo.

Without being too harsh, he is at best the #4 PG in this class in my opinion for the following reasons.

Pro's- Skilled passer and at times a good play maker too. Fluid athlete, not overly explosive. Quite a crafty and creative finisher when he does make it into the paint.
Major Con's- Asides from his obvious and well publicised shooting struggles, the main issue is his inability to create penetration. He cannot get past NBL defenders (far less athletic than NBA ones). As a point guard that is a massive issue. When he gets the ball with the shot clock under 10, he makes a few dribble moves, can't get past his defender or even within the 3 point line for that matter. and is forced into a bad step-back (or passes the ball too someone else with too little time to do anything but the same)

Other Cons- doesn't seem too interested on defense a lot of the time, and goes through massive stretches of being extremely passive (especially when the ball is out of his hands), takes some god-awful shots (must run in the family). Slight frame, may get pushed around alot in the big league.

Does that mean he will be a bust... certainly not. But I think he is projected way too high on most boards, if NAW was the same draft class I take NAW every day of the week over LaMelo

[Pelicanidae]

Nico Mannion showing off some burst and an awesome off-hand finish pic.twitter.com/nLGCophrOA

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) January 10, 2020

Nico Mannion finishing through contact pic.twitter.com/oWYDtFmRH4

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) January 10, 2020

Nico Mannion getting to the rim and finishing through contact again. Doing a great job of driving today pic.twitter.com/rXhnTfki2F

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) January 10, 2020

Nico Mannion stops on a dime to create space and buries the pull-up jumper. So good pic.twitter.com/WNxpAzTC89

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) January 10, 2020

Some more Mannion highlights from tonight. I know that Nico has had trouble getting to the rim, but the increased aggression on drives where he's ending up in the paint are good to see from him. It helps that he has such high levels of touch that he can finish these kinds of floaters and hooks pretty reliably; there aren't many guys who can. Obviously it would be better if he was finishing them at-rim rather than from 6 feet away, but it's still an improvement from earlier in the season where he was driving far less frequently.

I'm trying to think of who to compare him to in terms of floaters and touch-finishes like this but it's hard to grab an easy name.

I feel like in the NBA his driving ability with flourish more against second team units, whereas maybe he'll be better as an off-ball type scorer against primary lineups? Maybe that underrates him and his finishing ability but I worry about his lack of rim pressure when it comes to facing primary defenders.

[Pelicanidae]

Nico Mannion getting to the rim and finishing through contact in the halfcourt? Oh pic.twitter.com/aPN6Sl0We6

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) January 10, 2020

and we have an at-rim finish!

[Pelicanidae]

No doubt Nico Mannion is best in the class at probing baseline and patiently waiting for a window to open pic.twitter.com/tkM3D3ZYfV

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) January 10, 2020

I've mentioned it before, but Mannion's patience is one of his best skills. Rarely feels rushed.

[Biasvasospasm]

I really like his fit with this team. I think there's a natural fit for an elite pull-up shooter (he's not quite there, but I think he gets there) and elite passer to play off Jax and Zion and the rim gravity those guys have. I've also always thought that you really can't have enough point guards in the modern NBA. No matter what position you pick here as the Pels, there will be some redundancy in prospects, but you can play 2 or even 3 point guards in the NBA in a rotation, especially because all of our other guards are bigger. You can't have enough point guards and you can't have enough versatile forwards.
I also think that the concerns about his athleticism are a bit overblown. I think he is probably at least as good an athlete as Darius Garland was, and I think his skill level is higher especially in terms of point guard skills. I think he suffers a somewhat from pigmentation as a prospect. I like what I've seen from him much better than, for instance, Cole Anthony.

[Pelicanidae]

I really like his fit with this team. I think there's a natural fit for an elite pull-up shooter (he's not quite there, but I think he gets there) and elite passer to play off Jax and Zion and the rim gravity those guys have. I've also always thought that you really can't have enough point guards in the modern NBA. No matter what position you pick here as the Pels, there will be some redundancy in prospects, but you can play 2 or even 3 point guards in the NBA in a rotation, especially because all of our other guards are bigger. You can't have enough point guards and you can't have enough versatile forwards.
I also think that the concerns about his athleticism are a bit overblown. I think he is probably at least as good an athlete as Darius Garland was, and I think his skill level is higher especially in terms of point guard skills. I think he suffers a somewhat from pigmentation as a prospect. I like what I've seen from him much better than, for instance, Cole Anthony.

Speaking of elite pull up shooting:

Nico Mannion drains the game-tying pull-up 3 pic.twitter.com/ZrUIjKooqx

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) January 10, 2020

I mostly agree though. I don't think he would be my first pick if I had the #1 overall or anything like that, and there's a real discussion about whether he'd be better than Tyrese Maxey who I feel has a solid shooting potential as well but with much higher defensive capacity (worse passer though), but if we ended up with the 8th pick or something and Mannion was still on the board, I'd consider it a steal for us to grab him.

Obviously it's all relative depending on where we end up in the draft. If we end up picking 14th, for example, odds are that Mannion won't be there anymore

[As I See It]

I feel like my current draft board looks something like this:

1) Anthony Edwards
2) Isaac Okoro
3) Tyrese Maxey
4) Nico Mannion
5) Onyeka Okongwu
6) Killian Hayes
7) Cole Anthony
8) LaMelo Ball
9) Deni Avdija
10) RJ Hampton
11) Tyrese Haliburton
12) Paul Reed
13) Theo Maledon
14) Killian Tillie
15) Devin Vassell
16) Kira Lewis Jr
17) Josh Green
18) Oscar Thsiebwe
19) Devon Dotson
20) Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

I cut it off at 20 because honestly there's too many.

And, in fairness, I feel like there are a few tiers in this which are very fluid. So Josh Green could easily be 15th instead of 17th, for example, and Okongwu could easily be 3rd instead of 5th, and Ball could easily swap places with Haliburton.

Some of these players I haven't watched a ton of, and obviously we are still very early in the year, so this is extremely tentative and subject to change. It might even change by the end of next week

But that's roughly where I'm at as of today.

I really hope you are right about Avdija. We could possibly slot in around nine (or trade up to nine more easily than to top three). He would be a steal at nine. He's an 18 year old who can play three positions (1,2, or 3). He spaces the floor with the three and is an above average assist man. Many have him in the top five. Poor man's Doncic Luka?

No James Wiseman?

[Pelicanidae]

I really hope you are right about Avdija. We could possibly slot in around nine (or trade up to nine more easily than to top three). He would be a steal at nine. He's an 18 year old who can play three positions (1,2, or 3). He spaces the floor with the three and is an above average assist man. Many have him in the top five. Poor man's Doncic Luka?

Well, it's my rankings rather where I actually think any given player will get drafted (for example, I put LaMelo at #8 but there's gonna be some team that picks him at #3 or something, and there's no way Wiseman doesn't actually go top #20), but I do actually think Avdija will be there at 7-10 ish.

The thing about Avdija to me is that he isn't that much like Doncic at all. Like yes, they're both forwards, they're both white, they're both young prospects, and they both are ball handlers with quite high level passing, but there are some key differences.

1) I don't think Avdija projects as well as a shot-maker as Doncic. Avdija's mechanics tend to change under defensive pressure and he doesn't always have his body under control, trending towards kicking legs at times. Not nice.
2) Avdija desperately needs to add strength: he's a pretty mediocre finisher because he gets pinballed around a lot, and he doesn't have a left hand.
3) Relatively mediocre handle. Good for his size, but not outlier good like Doncic. Avdija doesn't find it easy to split a double team, for example, particularly in the PnR.
4) Doesn't seem to understand what a screen is, on offense at least.
5) Really good passer for a forward, but not on the same level as Doncic.

Where I think Avdija really measures up strongly is on defense. He does have big flaws there, like his lack of strength, his tendency to foul on what should be vertical contests, his mediocre lateral quickness, and his hit-and-miss rotations, but the strengths are clear. His anticipation is very high level, he has great defensive posture that keeps strong balance, and his reaction time is elite. Again, these are differences with Doncic because Doncic is actually a pretty mediocre defender.

The reasons I think he might be available as late as #10 are simple: he's not from the college system, he doesn't have US High School hype, and he's not even from Euroleague: he's an Israeli player. I can't think of any Israeli players off the top of my head who went top 10 in any draft. Add to that his relatively poor counting stats due to low minutes and his (thus far) poor shooting numbers (shooting 50/26/53), I don't feel like he's really shown enough to crack the top 5 for me. You're right though, he is very young, and his defensive upside and secondary ball-handling prospects are encouraging. Getting him somewhere around #10 wouldn't be a terrible pickup.

[Pelicanidae]

I wonder if Tre Jones is someone that's crossed any minds. Obviously it depends on what the plan is for the future (if you see both NAW and Lonzo as sticking around long term, and you're keeping Jrue, it's probably not a great idea to draft another guard here) and where we pick (Tre is not a top 10 guy, imo) but he's an option.

Played at Duke with Zion last year. Averaging 15pts, 4rbds, 7asts this year on 45/37 splits from the field/3pt line. 2.3 A/TO, which is very strong. Good decision maker.

3.0% STL last year, increased to 3.8%STL this year, which is really good. Improvements across the board from last year in REB%, AST%, BLK% as well. PER has increased +8.2. Putting up .242 WS/40 this year, which is solid, and he's posting a BPM of 11.3, which is really good and an improvement of +4.2 from last year.

His 37% from 3 is on 3.5 attempts per game, which is a pretty good improvement from last year's 26% on 2.9 per game. His FTr has gone from 19.4% to 36.8% this year too, which is a pretty nice improvement.

If you're thinking of moving on from Moore/Frank and looking for another guard (which I don't think likely, but still) and we end up picking somewhere between #15 and #20, I think Tre Jones would be a pretty decent place to look. He's a good decision maker and a solid defender despite being only 6'3, and he's shown real improvement in his second year at college. The added familiarity with Zion is only a small bonus.

[Pelicanidae]

Tre Jones is shooting 42.3% on 52 pullup jumpers this season. Last season, he shot 31.2% on only 77 pullup jumpers. That improvement, added to his 73.8% career FT shooting, makes him look like a lotto pick: pic.twitter.com/sH9ZR3DkQ7

— Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) January 12, 2020

Throwing a little more support behind Tre Jones the more I research. Gotta admit, I haven't really watched Duke much this year because they don't really have anyone that, off the top of my head, jumps out as me as a prospect and I haven't seen much talk surrounding them. With so many college teams, you kinda have to try and pick games to watch carefully imo, when draft scouting.

That said, I might need to watch some Duke. I saw the game against Wake and he was phenomenal in that.

42.3% on decent volume of pullup jumpers is impressive and it bodes well for his jumper at the next level.

Again, I don't really think he's a top 10 prospect because he is a little older, he's relatively small, and he doesn't have outlier athleticism or vision or anything like that, but he really does strike me as a guy who is going to be a really positive NBA player somewhere.

[ml wave]

I like him, values the defensive end and works extremely hard there. If his shooting improvement holds, we could do worse.