Good morning. ICYMI, I wrote about what Brandon Ingram's Max Contract will look like and the important details around it. https://t.co/DUSOdfPp1z
— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) January 2, 2020
. |
Good morning. ICYMI, I wrote about what Brandon Ingram's Max Contract will look like and the important details around it. https://t.co/DUSOdfPp1z
— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) January 2, 2020
It's wild that you can have basically $77m difference between a Max Contract and a Max Contract
I get it, I know why that's the case, it's all mathematically very sensible, but it's still wild.
That's the difference between ''a pretty good deal with some value'' and ''wow that's a monstrous overpay''.
There are like, 5 players in the league at any given time that are worth $46m in a season.
Basketball.
Brandon Ingram is a flat out star and rising superstar. You can’t name a handful of SFs better than this kid and the ones that are will also be exiting their prime in the next few years when he won’t even have entered his yet. This kid is exactly what I thought he would be. Scary he is just scratching the surface of his talent!
After last night, BI has made 35 consecutive free throws and is 91 of 99 since the start of December. What an insane development for a career 67% FT shooter.
Gladly eating my crow on BI even if I had a valid reason to not buy into him.
I don't even see it as eating crow tbh. He's changed his playstyle fairly dramatically. It's not like he's doing all of the exact same things in the exact same way; he's changed for the better.
He's setting career highs in REB%, AST%, STL%, BLK%, TS%, and 3PAr, along with a career low in TOV%, en route to a career best PIPM and RPM. He's putting up a positive Net Rating for the first time in his career. He's setting a career high in self-generated buckets (only 28.6% of his 2pt makes are assisted; his previous career low was 36.2% back in his rookie year).
He's more than doubled his previous career high in 3pt attempts per 36, and (as pelafanatic has pointed out) is shooting 86.7% from the FT line despite never shooting better than 68.5% in his previous 3 years.
Am I happy that I was wrong about him? Of course I am. But I wasn't wrong because he suddenly became magically good while doing the exact same things, I was wrong because he fixed a lot of the flaws in his game that I was complaining about. Never going to resent someone for improving.
Credit, of course, has to go to Fred Vinson, who has been the guy who has worked with Ingram and Lonzo on their shooting, and both guys have seen pretty dramatic improvements. 68% to 87% from the FT line is a massive leap.
This is all conjecture but I think Lonzo would benefit more from a sports psychologist than an actual coach when it comes to his FTs. I think its 80% mental at this point, considering the improvements he's made from 3.
If it matters, Lonzo is shooting a comfortable career best from the FT line
It's only 51.4%, but his previous career best was 45.1%, so it's something.
If he can get up to around 65% (which is still bad for a guard!) then that would really be something. Would probably make him a more confident driver and finisher at the rim if he knew he could actually make some of the FTs.
It looks like Lonzo’s issue is all mental from the line. When he’s in the moment of the game, he’s shooting well. But give him time and freedom to think and he yips it.
Probably just needs a rote style to learn and do every single time.
Ingram has improved every year he's been in the league.. He was also averaging 28PPG before he was sidelined last season. What he's doing now was predicted by many, it comes as no surprise to many. If you're wrong you're wrong period. No need for the mental gymnastics. There's a reason why Griff wanted him.
Brandon Ingram average 18PPG at 49% from the field.. He wasn't inefficient. Has he improved? Sure.. Was he already trending in this direction, which is my point.. Yes..
Last season post all-star break.. 28.4 PTS | 7.6 REB | 2.8 AST with shooting splits 58% FG | 46.7% 3PT | 75% FT
Yes it's mental gymnastics to say I was wrong, but I wasn't wrong..
This is what he does guys.. He improves every year. Expect another jump next season.
Important not to just look at raw FG%. Try TS%, which incorporates FTs and 3pt% to more accurately represent your points per scoring attempt. League average last year was about 56%, and Ingram shot 55.5%, which was solid but very average. By contrast, league average this year is also about 56%, but Ingram's shooting 59.6%TS; that means his efficiency relative to the league has gone from about -0.5%, to about +3.5%. That's a pretty big single season improvement.
Secondly, even in your own numbers regarding the post all-star break play, you give away some of the differences in Ingram's play. Firstly, you note that he shot 75%from the FT line post all-star break last year: he's shooting 86% from the FT this year. That's obvious improvement, even from the cherry picked 6 game sample where Ingram was at his absolute best.
Thirdly, in that same cherry picked 6 game sample, Ingram shot 46.7% from 3, sure, but he was taking 2.8 attempts per game from behind the arc. He's pretty much doubled that to 5.8 attempts per game this year. So again, that's a pretty dramatic shift in shot profile.
His playmaking was also down in that stretch, about 2.5 assists per game; his career high AST% this year is an improvement on that again.
How is it mental gymnastics to say ''I was wrong about Ingram because he's improved in areas I didn't think he would'' but it's not mental gymnastics to do what you're doing, which is act like a 6 game sample size is representative of his overall game last year, especially when the way he played during that 6 game sample does not map directly on to the way he's playing this season?
Did you miss the part where I said.. "Has he improved?" Sure.. Or the part where I said "he was trending in this direction"?
It was said that he was inefficient. I beg to differ. An individual with a 49% FG percentage isn't inefficient.
Do you not get what trending means? "28.4 PTS | 7.6 REB | 2.8 AST with shooting splits 58% FG | 46.7% 3PT | 75% FT" You don't put up these kind of numbers on a fluke, even for a six game stretch.
You don't like post all-star break numbers? How bout this to illustrate my point that he was trending in this direction..
Month of February 2018-2019... 21PPG 50%, 38% 3PT, 75% FT,
Month of February 2017-2018... 18.6PPG 54%, 52% 3PT, 77% FT, averaging 5.6 assists as well. Like I said, this is what he does.
Again, TS% is a far better metric because it encompasses the different shot values when regarding efficiency of scoring, and in that metric Ingram went from slightly below average to comfortably above it. That's going from being slightly inefficient to being quite efficient, clearly.
Whenever someone says something like this, I always bring up last season, where E'twaun Moore started off by averaging about 18ppg on better than 50% from 3, for a span of nearly 20 games.
The reality is that actually yes, people do regularly put up numbers far exceeding their averages for short stretches, and no, these exceptions do not always guarantee any future norm.
Again, even those numbers pale in significance to the step he's taken this year.
February of 2018-19, that 38% from 3 was on 2 attempts per game. Not only has his season long efficiency improved from 38% this year, he's doing it on nearly triple that volume. And, 75% from the FT line is still dramatically less than 86% from the FT line.
Then, in your next post, you reference February 2017-18 in another attempt to cherry pick a small sample size in which Ingram played out of his boots, but this is precisely the point: out of his boots. Not only was his 52%3PT shooting that month done on 2.3 attempts per game (again, dramatically lower sample size than he's taking right now) but it was irregular for him.
What you've done is you've seen a few people (including me) say ''wow, Ingram has really taken a step up this year!'', referring to his overall play, and decided to get upset because actually you can cherry pick out a few individual periods where he's played well before.
Nobody is saying that Ingram has never shot well for a span of like, 8 games at a time here and there. What people are saying is that the consistent body of work Ingram is amassing over significant periods of time this season far surpasses any of his previous seasons.
Which is absolutely true, and no amount of ''well, actually he had 11 good games back in March of 2017'' is going to change that.
"Whenever someone says something like this, I always bring up last season, where E'twaun Moore started off by averaging about 18ppg on better than 50% from 3, for a span of nearly 20 games."
This is where your argument falls apart. I said "trending".. He started, and dipped.. Ingram's production escalates on the tail end of every season.
"What you've done is you've seen a few people (including me) say ''wow, Ingram has really taken a step up this year!'', referring to his overall play, and decided to get upset because actually you can cherry pick out a few individual periods where he's played well before."
Let's not project, let's also not blatantly misrepresent my position. Which is basically lying.
You said.. "cherry pick out a few individual periods" is that what I did?? Or did I point out to you the tail end of seasons, and express that he was trending? You're smart enough to know the difference. I shouldn't have to explain to you the difference between an individual's play escalating as a season progresses, and "cherry picking" specific points within that season. You know better.
Bottom line there are plenty who expected him to do the very thing he's doing now, some even on this board. You didn't see it, and now you're trying to act like your critiques were justified, along with your lowly projections and expectations of what he'd bring to the table.
Eat your crow with dignity boss.. There's nothing wrong with being wrong lol.. It happens.
I also like how you say.. "what people are saying" as if your position constitutes some kind of consensus. It doesn't.
This is where your argument falls apart, because it's not a legitimate trend upwards: if it was, he would continue that play the next year. In every year prior to this one, this hasn't happened: he's ''trended'' upwards to end the year, and then started off the next year just as poorly as usual. This is the first time that this ''trend'' has actually represented a legitimate curve upwards. This is not a sustainable trend, this is just a hot streak.
Yes, that is what you did, because you're smart enough to know that that's not a legitimate trend; that's a boom which has been, again until this year, repeatedly followed by a bust. That is not trending upwards towards success, that is inconsistent play. I shouldn't have to explain to you that a player having a hot spot to close out a year and then coming back the next year without any of that same success isn't a trend towards success but instead a temporary hot streak.
You know better than that.
Again, perfectly happy to admit that I was wrong. I didn't think Ingram would play as well as he has, and I'm glad to see that he's proven me wrong on that. No denial about it whatsoever.
I'm just pointing out that the reason for my doubt was the fact that he had never consistently played at this level for any extended period of time before; and in fact, even if you cherry pick that hot spot to close out last season and claim that it IS that, you're still incorrect because that play is not on this level. He is playing better now than he was then. Him playing on this level for any sustained period is unprecedented, and something he had never done before for any length of time; even in the absolute best spots you've chosen to represent him such as the post all-star boom last season didn't have him shooting 3s at anything like this volume, or being this effective from the FT line, or playmaking at this level. That's just the reality of the situation.
Umm yea, he's better now. Why is he better now? Because his improvement escalates. He was sidelined and unable to work on his game during the offseason, which accounts for his initial play. Acclimating to a new role and teammates also didn't help. He's also 22 years old, he's not going to make these kind of adjustments instantaneously and hit the ground running.
Pointing out an escalation in play for the duration of a season isn't "cherry picking" but if that's how you need to label it to not feel as though you weren't clearly wrong, have at it.
Cherry picking... and an escalation are two entirely different things. No way around this fact.
"Again, perfectly happy to admit that I was wrong. I didn't think Ingram would play as well as he has, and I'm glad to see that he's proven me wrong on that. No denial about it whatsoever."
That's better..
"I was wrong but I wasn't wrong", sounds like a cop out boss.
"you're still incorrect because that play is not on this level."
Wrong again.. I said he was trending in this direction, again, what do you think that means?
Last edited by Nichols; 01-08-2020 at 04:09 AM.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)