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That's the big one for me.Originally Posted by Taker597
Figure out what we're going to do with Moore, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo by the trade deadline because you can't make good drafting decisions when you don't know what you have and what you need.
Don't decide to resign Moore, keep Redick, and resign Hart, and then draft a PG. That makes very little sense.
Basketball.
Move assets for a potential superstar? Care to elaborate on this theory?
Contributor
Hm...I might be a believer in Nico Mannion.
Edwards is probably gonna be my guy with a top 3 pick.
My problem is his tends to be streaky shooter, and too reliant on a 3 PT shoot. I'd say... It's better to draft the SG/PG of the future. Keep Jrue if you must, but ship out Ball, Jackson, and JJ.
I really hope Edwards or NAW can be able to run an offense at point, because they'll make each other redundant. NAW being a 6th man is still a valuable role. I feel like Hayes has a much better IQ ceiling and potential than Wiseman. Whom is looking like a Jahil Okafor+ before his suspension. It's an exaggeration, but his defense in the paint got me hella worried.
Still working out what would be my 4-6 range pick and 7-10 range pick. Which is how I kind of tiered off this draft.
Join me
The thing is for me that Edwards is, at least right now, the clear number 1 in this draft. He's not perfect, but he's shown a lot more versatility than many of the others in this class and he has probably the best physical profile. It's been overstated a little, but he does look a bit like Dwyane Wade.
Agreed on Hayes > Wiseman also. Truly cannot understand the Wiseman hype. Someone is going to pick him before Okongwu when they desperately need a big and it's going to be painful.
Not concerning at all that this is LaMelo on a switch against an NBL big pic.twitter.com/mtw6m2VTQs
— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) December 16, 2019
Truly awful possession from LaMelo here that's actually fairly indicative of his play in wider respects.
Just absolutely cannot generate true separation from anyone with discipline. He's fluid, but he's not explosive in any way, and his handle (while certainly solid) isn't creative or instinctive enough for him to shake people. He gets into a kind of tunnel vision here: I know there's pretty much zero off-ball movement, which doesn't help, but he's not really looking for a pass either despite his lack of success. Settles for the terrible shot that would require crazy touch to finish, and it's touch that he just doesn't really have (at least, not against contact).
Really not understanding the people who have him as a top 3 pick locked in.
People I need to watch for a full analysis soon: Paul Reed, Killian Tillie, Devin Vassell, Killian Hayes, Theo Maledon, Xavier Tillman.
I've seen some of these guys play before just in general, but without paying super close attention and breaking things down. Need to do a full analysis.
Just doing some cursory looks at some of the actual stats (been doing more tape-watching than stat counting for this draft so far, since statistical sample sizes are still fairly small) and yeah, a lot of what I've been seeing is being confirmed by the numbers.
LaMelo, for example. Here's his numbers:
17 pts, 7.4rbds, 6.8asts per game (31mpg). 37.7% FG, 25% 3pt, 72% FT: that's 46.4% TS. 2.62%STL (pretty solid but not incredible), -6.8 Net Rating, 16.2 PER, 0.58 total win shares. None of that is really particularly thrilling. His 2.7 AST:TO ratio is nice, though.
Onyeka Okongwu's numbers:
17.4 pts, 8.7rbds, 0.9 asts per game (27mpg). 61.1% FG, 71.2% FT: that's 64% TS. 2.4%STL, 13.2%BLK (that's awesome), +41.5 Net Rating, 34.97 PER, 2.06 total win shares. All very encouraging. Statistical dominance from someone whose game really pops on tape also.
Nico Mannion's numbers:
14.4 pts, 2rbds, 6.5asts per game (30mpg). 43% FG, 36.2% 3pt, 81.8% FT: that's 55.8% TS. +23.7 Net Rating, 20.81 PER, 1.98 total win shares.
His efficiency has taken a dip recently due to one particularly trash shooting game where he went 3-20 from the floor and 1-10 from 3. Remove that game, and his slash line is more like 48/42/80, which shows the damage one bad game can have when the overall sample size is still so small. One game brings -5% FG, -6% 3pt. Expect to see his efficiency creep back up a bit.
Anthony Edwards' Numbers:
19.8pts, 5.2rbds, 3asts (29mpg). 42%FG, 34% 3pt, 75% FT: that's 53.7% TS. +14.1 Net Rating, 25.51 PER, 1.31 total win shares. His STL% of 3.94 is very encouraging, and his BLK% of 2.31 is pretty solid for a guard also. AST:TO ratio of 1:04 isn't spectacular, but at least it's not negative.
James Wiseman pulling out of college to prepare for the draft is a mixed bag. On one hand the NCAA treated him terribly, so it's justifiable he'd want to just get out rather than jump through hoops to try and be allowed to play.
On the other hand, it means he's pretty much done in terms of draft scouting sample size. And he's not going to get the chance to show growth or to answer criticism. Dude's just done all he's going to do.
Which, for me, isn't great. I have him around #15 on my draft board, possibly a bit lower depending on if some of the more borderline prospects keep things up. He'll end up being drafted top 5 anyway, probably by Golden State or maybe the Hawks, and it will be a bad choice.
Bad choice? This is not a very strong/deep draft. He is certainly worth a shot on potential alone.
He is not the best C prospect in this draft. He projects more as a decent roleplayer than a star, and if you're picking top 5, most people are picking for upside. If you pick Wiseman at, say, 3rd overall then even if he turns out fairly good he will almost inevitably be worse than someone who comes after him, and then picking an objectively average player looks bad relative to the opportunity cost.
I'd disagree with your take that this isn't a deep draft. By contrast, I think it's depth is its strength. It has absolutely no top tier superstar prospects, but tons of players who seem to have roleplayer potential. Good roleplayers are important.
Why do you not think Wiseman has upside?
It's not that he has no upside, that would be silly to say about anyone so young, it's that he has no more upside than other C prospects in this draft who have already shown more.
If you have two players who are both of a similar age, and who both have room to improve by, say, 50% (just making up a number for the sake of demonstration here), but one of them is already a B+ player and the other is only a D+ player, they both have plenty of room to improve but the player who is already showing more is the one who is more likely to end up being good.
Let's say you're Golden State, and you end up with the #1 pick in the draft, and you take Wiseman. And he ends up being a perfectly fine NBA calibre big. Not a star, not an MVP, not an all-NBA guy, but a perfectly fine and solid starting quality big.
And then someone, no idea who, takes Onyeka Okongwu with the 9th pick. And he ends up being an all-star calibre player, an all-NBA/all-Defense candidate, someone who is capable of being a top 15/20 player in the league.
Wiseman didn't suck. He was fine. But you are still going to be seen as having made a huge error.
Perhaps a more dramatic example would be the infamous Ricky Rubio/Steph Curry mixup. Rubio was picked #5 in 2009, and he's no star but he's a solid player. Makes teams better, really good passer, decent enough defender, and has even improved offensively over the last few years. He's a fine player. But Steph Curry went at #7. So the Wolves are universally seen as having missed a trick there, even though Rubio isn't a bust or anything.
The NCAA can go pound sand. Wiseman is a good kid and hey did him dirty. I think he has Chris Bosh potential, but I would have loved to see him play more, or make it oversees and get some experience vs some seasoned talent. Oh well.
People doubting Nico are going to look like a horse’s ****** in a few years, that kid has “it”.
If you Jimmer it, they will come.
Speaking of Onyeka Okongwu, I don't think I actually wrote up a thing for a full game of him on here, so since I'm finally catching up on some games I'd missed during busy-busy UK Election time, here's one.
ONYEKA OKONGWU: VS TCU
Final Statline: 13pts, 6rbds, 3asts, 7blks, 2stls. 55.6% shooting. Relatively low scoring game for him, he had 27/14 in the game before this and 28/12 in the game following it.
Pros:
- Shows some signs of decent passing. Early play in the first half, 18:45 left on the clock, catches a pass at the perimeter and throws an entry pass into the post. Simple play, but something some bigs miss early in their careers. Has another nice go-ahead pass with 3:50 left in the first half which must be a good 50ft throw over two defenders that arrives right on target.
- Good defensive stance. Stays on the balls of his feet and gets relatively low, with arms to his sides. No flailing and falling back on the heels. Manages to maintain position and stay grounded when defending despite elite explosion as a jumper. Disciplined defender. Tends to meet the ball at the lower points of travel which can sometimes make his shot-blocking prowess look a little less 'highlight' worthy but also removes the need for leaping all over; Duncan used to block shots like this a lot.
- Boxes out relatively well. Isn't a hugely bulky body, but he tends to get solid inside position and sort of press outwards. I'd imagine that it would make him a little susceptible to pulling the chair, but hasn't been an issue as far as I've seen in the games I've watched prior to this one; possible his body control/balance mitigates that.
- Moves feet really well laterally and mirrors fantastically well against opposing offensive players regardless of their size. Very mobile and smooth for a big man; he's not massively tall but he has solid muscle and he's extremely lengthy, and that allows him to crowd smaller players without being too large to lose speed.
- Isn't consistent with it on every play, but shows some very good footwork under the basket. Very smooth: favors shots directly at the rim rather than sweeping hooks, which is actually a good sign, but has the touch to finish layups and push shots as well. There's a moment here at 12:37 in the first half where he ducks under two defenders, keeps the pivot anchored, transfers the ball from left hand to right and finishes with a soft little shot at the rim all in one very clean motion. Can take contact while still putting the ball up in the right place; has another shot at 5 minutes left in the first half where he gets clobbered and still puts it in for the soft finish.
- Lands well, weight on the balls of his feet, slightly bent knees. Heel stays well out of the motion until force is dispersed. Good balance.
- Good hands, which aids him with help. Very willing helper, at 11:40 in the first half he gets a fantastic help steal by digging into the ball, kind of how Jokic does if you know what I mean, scooping it away from the defender so that he can gather it.
- Really really athletic. I haven't watched every single prospect, so I can't say this for sure, but he might be the most athletic player in the draft? Maybe Oscar beats him out there, and possible one or two others, but he's certainly got legitimate burst and it's quick too. Very fast off the ground. Functional athleticism too; runs well.
- Doesn't lay on the screener. He hangs back two or three feet so that when the guard comes off the screen in the PnR, he can easily switch or hedge. That's an advantage of being quick, because he can recover to his man easily and quickly if needed.
- Plays under control. Very rarely looks lost.
Cons:
- Doesn't have a particularly developed handle right now. It's good enough to do some of the simpler things, he's not a totally stagnant big, but he's not taking anyone off the dribble with varied moves as it stands right now.
- Limited range. He's not entirely rim-bound, he's willing to take a FT line jumper and when he does it usually looks fairly nice, and he's a solid FT shooter as well so you imagine that there's potential there to stretch it out, but he's not a 3pt shooter right now. Passes them up entirely the vast majority of the time.
- Occasionally has moments where the motor looks to be running low. He never seems out of position so this could just be a case of confidence in positioning, but I'd prefer to see more action screening, for example.
For real. I don't think he's a perfect prospect by any means (does not attack the rim in the halfcourt nearly enough, for example, and his negative wingspan is just not great sadly) but he's a real NBA player. Wouldn't mind walking out of the draft with him on our team at all.
Contributor
I'm a little disappointed he's only made or attempted 7 shots inside the paint. But everything else about his game is golden.
In fairness, I do think it's a bit misleading to take that number at face value.
It's definitely accurate, sure, and I do not deny that he needs to show more consistency in driving to the basket and actually getting shots up there: they usually look pretty decent when he does it, and he's a good FT shooter, so he should do it more.
But I have seen a few people on Twitter (not you, Eman) speculating that his low at-rim attempts combined with his pass-first mentality could lead to a Lonzo style inability to scramble defenses and such in the half-court.
From what I've seen so far in college, that won't be an issue. A major difference between Nico and Lonzo in this regard is that while Lonzo simply doesn't drive and therefore doesn't scramble defenses because he lacks an in between game with any gravity, Nico is actually an incredibly effective scorer inside of the arc: he just does it with a diverse range of floaters, push shots, hooks, etc. It's certainly an unusual method of scoring, and obviously not as valuable as someone who is consistently hitting the rim at full force, but it does mean that he has some gravity inside the arc in a way that Lonzo simply doesn't.
It helps that his touch is just bonkers and he's one of the few players I've ever seen where they shoot a floater from 10 feet and I just expect it to go in.
I like a lot of the same guys you like but I'd urge you to look more at Killian Hayes. I have more faith in him than both Ball and your boy Mannion.
@mcnamara247
Isn’t Killian very similar in build and play style as NAW? I saw some highlights of him and he has a lot of upside.
He is not very similar IMO, but even if he was -- this is the #1 mistake people make when drafting. They draft with the current roster in mind, seeking to compliment the current pieces. Yet, by the time a rookie develops, the roster is almost always completely different.
Now, if you have a sure fire superstar piece on your roster, and you have two guys on the board with similar grades and one guys skill sets and "position" overlaps with your star, and the other doesn't, then you draft the guy who doesn't.
But when you draft in 2020, you do not even think about NAW or anybody not named Zion on your roster. You take the best guy available and the best guy who fits skill set wise with Zion. If that guy and NAW both hit, and they are redundant, then maybe you move one. But you do not think about anybody except your guaranteed stars when drafting. It is the top mistake teams make year after year after year
Oh no, I totally agree with you. I’m not saying not to draft him because NAW is on the roster. In my opinion, the Pels can use every position on the floor still. I’m even holding out judgement on Zion. As a Pels fan, it’s hard to believe one player can change this franchise, so I’m all for drafting the best player available until they strike gold. I mean even a player of ADs caliber didn’t win consistently here. The Pels need to find a floor leader, and quite frankly an a**hole on the court. Someone that holds everybody accountable. Someone that puts winning and leadership over worrying about what others think. That’s the type of player I think they should have in mind every time they select someone until the “alpha” is found.
In all likelihood, the alpha will have to come via trade or Zion will have to be one in a similar fashion to Giannis. He won't be a Kobe type alpha but could become a Giannis type alpha
The only other way is if you draft an upperclassman in late 1st/early 2nd who isn't the best player on the team but is the soul of the team, a la Draymond.
But that won't come from some 19 year old who will be younger than Zion and a lesser player to boot. It would have to be a Jordan Nwora type.
But more likely than not, it will be Zion doing it in a Giannis type style
What’s your take on BI? Is he another AD type where he can stuff the stat sheet, but won’t be a true leader?
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