11th December - New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks - 6-18

[Pelicanidae]

We are currently 6-18, meaning that we have a .250 win percentage right now. We have lost 9 straight: that is the most of the Gentry era. Tonight we go on the road to face the 21-3 Milwaukee Bucks, who are on a 15 game winning streak. So that's fun.

Injury Report:

Derrick Favors questionable for Wednesday game at Milwaukee

Injury Report: https://t.co/k4oGo4uyrt

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) December 10, 2019

I'm fairly sure that I heard someone say Favors is likely to play tonight, so let's see if that works out or not.

Before I talk about the Bucks, I want to just look at a few things about us at this point, 24 games into the year.

We are the league's 20th rated offense, and 26th rated defense. We give up the 2nd most points to opponents per game. We are 20th in rebounds per game, 12th in assists, 16th in steals, 18th in blocks. We are the 4th most foul-prone team in the NBA, and we are bottom 10 in turnovers per game. We are 12th in 3pt%, 20th in FG%, and 28th in FT%. We are not top 10 in any of the 4 Offensive Factors, nor are we top 10 in any of the 4 Defensive Factors. We suck. Glad to have got that out of the way.

What about the Bucks?

They're 2nd in offensive rating, and 1st in defensive rating. Their last loss came on November 8th. They are 1st in rebounds, 7th in assists, 19th in steals, 5th in blocks. They're 12th in turnovers (that is, 12th fewest) and 11th in fouls; not foul prone either. They're 15th in 3pt% and 2nd in FG%: they are one of the only 2 teams worse than us at FTs, ranking 29th. They're top 10 in two of the 4 Offensive Factors, and 11th in another. They're top 10 in 3 of the 4 Defensive Factors. They lead the league in points scored per game.

Giannis is averaging 31/13.5/5.5 on 61.5% TS. He is shooting better than 80% at the rim: no, that is not a typo.

This is one of those games we can almost certainly pencil in as a loss: that would be 10 in a row. This game should not be watched by anyone with an expectation of victory. Watch to see progress, to see if the effort improves, to see how Jax handles moving back into a bench role if Favors returns, etc, but do not expect a win. Who knows, maybe we'll be surprised?

#WBD.

[Pelicanidae]

Giannis in his last 8 games:

32.8 points
11.9 rebounds
3.9 assists
56% from the floor
36.2% from 3

In only 29 minutes a game.

Also, he's a DPOY candidate (not one of the top three, but he's definitely in that 4-6 grey area).

Dude's going crazy.

[Chris]

I always felt "10" was a nice round number.

[msusousaphone]

Two interesting stats I read today....

The first is the Pelicans are fifth in the league in amount of "clutch minutes" played. Clutch minutes being defined as 'within five points in the final five minutes'. That's not bad. It means we aren't blowing teams out but it also means we ARE staying competitive. Which is good. Promising even.

The second is that we are abysmal at it. Like, we are rated as worst in the league in the clutch (shocking, right?) 4-11. Outscored by 51 points in the clutch. Now, at first glance, that us so awful. So bad. But delving further into, there's some sunshine......we are one of the youngest teams with the least continuity. Not just continuity going into this season but also throughout this season with the myriad of injuries. Our blossoming playmaker in BI is still incredibly new at the role....there are so many reasons we SHOULD be bad in the clutch....these are things that WITH GOOD COACHING fixes themselves over time. The coaching is the part we can debate....or all agree on. But the future is still bright, imo.

[Pelicanidae]

Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is out tonight against New Orleans due to right quad tendon soreness.

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 11, 2019

OH REALLY

[Pelicanidae]

No Derrick Favors for the Pels tonight according to Alvin Gentry.

Still working on his conditioning as he just rejoined team Monday.

— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) December 11, 2019

Offset the joy of knowing Giannis is out with the disappointment of knowing Favors still won't.

[Snarly]

This team is a joke.

[Snarly]

I love how this team keeps teasing his return even though they know they won’t play him. I don’t know why they keep putting themselves in these type of positions and look incompetent when they have to make up excuses.

[new city champ]

I’m just glad he’s back. I’m sure the player “well being “ gurus are managing this kind of thing and want him to get more conditioning in before going out into game speed, especially considering the injuries Favors has already dealt with so far this year.

[msusousaphone]

I love how this team keeps teasing his return even though they know they won’t play him. I don’t know why they keep putting themselves in these type of positions and look incompetent when they have to make up excuses.

It has nothing to do with the fans, it's for the opposing teams. Without Zion and Favors, we suck at protecting the paint. The earlier the opposing teams know for sure Favors is out, the longer they will gameplan to ram it down our throats. Missing Giannis will be huge. Not just because he is one of the greatest current players but also because he is their best option to take advantage of our massive gaping hole.

Honestly, this has become a game like Detroit and OKC in that it wouldn't be a massive upset if we win. We need to capitalize.

[13 - 3]

We must remember Alvin is still learning the system. LOL. How long has he been coaching in the league? Meanwhile Nick Nurse ( Former Biddy ball HC)already has a ring.

[Taker597]

Bruhhh... Hawks blew a 6 point lead with 59 seconds left


Got out rebounded 53-37

ATL attempted 54 3s.

I thought we had it bad.

[13 - 3]

Bruhhh... Hawks blew a 6 point lead with 59 seconds left


Got out rebounded 53-37

ATL attempted 54 3s.

I thought we had it bad.

28 - 3 #neverforget

[Pelicanidae]

Bruhhh... Hawks blew a 6 point lead with 59 seconds left


Got out rebounded 53-37

ATL attempted 54 3s.

I thought we had it bad.

Remember when there were people on this board that were absolutely behind drafting Cam Reddish? I seem to remember at least one or two people being annoyed that we had taken Jax when Reddish was still on the board.

Cam Reddish as of today: 8.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists. 42.1% TS, -6.7 BPM, -0.6 VORP, -0.08 WS/48, PER of 6, shooting 55% at the rim, 26% from 3. PIPM of -4.3 is the 4th worst in the entire NBA, of all players, with any amount of minutes played.

[Taker597]

Remember when there were people on this board that were absolutely behind drafting Cam Reddish? I seem to remember at least one or two people being annoyed that we had taken Jax when Reddish was still on the board.

Cam Reddish as of today: 8.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists. 42.1% TS, -6.7 BPM, -0.6 VORP, -0.08 WS/48, PER of 6, shooting 55% at the rim, 26% from 3. PIPM of -4.3 is the 4th worst in the entire NBA, of all players, with any amount of minutes played.

I still don't understand why ATL drafted the players that they did.

Get an expensive low ceiling player at 4th. Then, go to to next extreme with low floor player in Reddish.

Go from Hayes to Rui to Reddish is walking into a cliff edge.

I hope Zion lives up to the hype, because I enjoy those Rui highlights. Passing on him because of redundancy is tough move.

[Pelicanidae]

I still don't understand why ATL drafted the players that they did.
Get an expensive low ceiling player at 4th. Then, go to to next extreme with low floor player in Reddish.
Go from Hayes to Rui to Reddish is walking into a cliff edge.
I hope Zion lives up to the hype, because I enjoy those Rui highlights. Passing on him because of redundancy is tough move.

Schlenk as a GM is someone who hasn't received nearly enough criticism IMO. Obviously Trae Young is a good, very skilled young player, but he passed up on Doncic to get him, and that's a bad choice. Then, his decision this year to move out from 8, 17, and 35 just for Hunter was a god-awful decision in so many ways. That's not even because Hunter sucks, or because Reddish will never improve, just the value he's extracted from his resources is incredibly low.

Rui has been pretty much what most analysts prior to the draft said he would be.

Skilled scorer in ways which are increasingly less important (post, mid-range, etc), who is a low feel player that can't play a lick of defense. That's been totally true so far in his rookie year. Rui is the league's 20th worst player according to PIPM, based on a slight positive OPIPM of 0.63 and a terrible DPIPM of -3.32. Negative net rating, negative BPM, negative VORP, sub-average TS%, etc etc. I had Rui fairly low on my board and he's done very little to change my view tbh. He's not even been as good as Jax, so the put him in the same conversation as Zion is just unthinkable to me, even with Zion yet to play.

[Taker597]

Schlenk as a GM is someone who hasn't received nearly enough criticism IMO. Obviously Trae Young is a good, very skilled young player, but he passed up on Doncic to get him, and that's a bad choice. Then, his decision this year to move out from 8, 17, and 35 just for Hunter was a god-awful decision in so many ways. That's not even because Hunter sucks, or because Reddish will never improve, just the value he's extracted from his resources is incredibly low.

Rui has been pretty much what most analysts prior to the draft said he would be.

Skilled scorer in ways which are increasingly less important (post, mid-range, etc), who is a low feel player that can't play a lick of defense. That's been totally true so far in his rookie year. Rui is the league's 20th worst player according to PIPM, based on a slight positive OPIPM of 0.63 and a terrible DPIPM of -3.32. Negative net rating, negative BPM, negative VORP, sub-average TS%, etc etc. I had Rui fairly low on my board and he's done very little to change my view tbh. He's not even been as good as Jax, so the put him in the same conversation as Zion is just unthinkable to me, even with Zion yet to play.

Ehhh, I really don't value rookie defense of numbers outside of figuring out there ceiling. Rui was always a gifted scorer with a ceiling of average defender. I feel his defense will get there will get there. Just got to get over mental speed bump. I think what I like about Rui as more as coaching project than a finished product.

I try to do that without the use of hindsight and work with what we knew on Hayes and Rui on draft day. Hayes was supposed to be a G league project. He played on such a Mehhhh team in college and gone through such a rapid growth spurt/position change. We didn't have Summer League to get a great grasp on his feel for the game. Which turned out to be much better than even I expected. Hayes had a perceived lower floor than Rui.

So, I can understand narrative either way. Hayes making these leap with as little as development he has leading up to NBA as a big while being 30 lbs underweight. It's a bit unprecedented.

Back on Zion, I have a harsher stance on availability. We still don't know if Zion game can translate to the NBA out of the gate. If Griff decides to shut him down the whole season. It'll be a long while till we get to see him.

[JJackisangry]

Not rushing Favors back is smart for multiple reasons. First of all, I am convinced we are stealth tanking a bit. Secondly, he keeps getting injured and/or is playing while unhealthy because we kept rushing him back. Let him get fully healthy and in shape.

[Pelicanidae]

Ehhh, I really don't value rookie defense of numbers outside of figuring out there ceiling. Rui was always a gifted scorer with a ceiling of average defender. I feel his defense will get there will get there. Just got to get over mental speed bump. I think what I like about Rui as more as coaching project than a finished product.

Personally, I don't view guys who will be 22 before the end of their rookie year as ''project'' players very often. Usually when you draft a ''project'' who needs a ton of work, they're really young or super raw. Rui isn't those things. He's fairly old as rookies go, and his naturally skills are well developed. Dude just has low feel for the game, and that's one of the least teachable skills.

I try to do that without the use of hindsight and work with what we knew on Hayes and Rui on draft day. Hayes was supposed to be a G league project. Hayes had a perceived lower floor than Rui.

Not to me :P I was arguing in favour of playing Hayes 15 minutes a game as a rookie from the moment we drafted him. I was never in on the red-shirt plan, and I never thought he had a lower floor than Rui. I get that that's a personal evaluation thing, but I just can't agree with this stuff because when I think of what I 'knew on draft day', I thought I knew pretty much this.

Back on Zion, I have a harsher stance on availability. We still don't know if Zion game can translate to the NBA out of the gate. If Griff decides to shut him down the whole season. It'll be a long while till we get to see him.

Zion will play this season, I'm absolutely confident on that. I am also extremely confident in his game translating. If Zion is any less than a very very good player, I will eat my shoe Werner Herzog style.

[13 - 3]

Any gamblers? Spread on this game?

[Taker597]

Any gamblers? Spread on this game?

I'm a big time gambler, but I've been so busy with work, and getting my YouTube channel off the ground.

The really consistent bet is

1Q Pel Spread or ML

It's better to live bet and catch Bucks - 2 on a run unless it's a complete blow out.

[msusousaphone]

Not rushing Favors back is smart for multiple reasons. First of all, I am convinced we are stealth tanking a bit. Secondly, he keeps getting injured and/or is playing while unhealthy because we kept rushing him back. Let him get fully healthy and in shape.

FINALS OR BUST!!!!

[msusousaphone]

Either ESPN has a horrible program or Milwaukee has the lamest most boring crowd in the lesgue.

[JJackisangry]

Oh my god this will be a bumming.

[msusousaphone]

Start out shooting good. The other team is shooting amazing. #PelsLife