2019-20 Hot Takes and Predictions

[Pelicanidae]

The title says it all.

We're currently reaching that part of the year where everything goes dead. We're a month or so away from training camp, I can't remember the exact timeline, and free agency is done. The draft is done. Summer league, done. Right now, we're largely waiting, speculating, theorising, strategising, and of course, getting ourselves in a spin over very little.

So let's share some of our hot takes, and our predictions. Everybody has one or two thoughts, feeling, suspicions, that they may or may not be able to justify about the upcoming season, and this is a place to share them. You can justify your hot takes if you want, and of course you can always ask why other people have the takes that they do, but it's just a fun little thing to do while we wait for stuff to happen.

Obviously, I'll start. Here are my feelings on the upcoming season:

Pelicans related:
- Zion Williamson will be a much better three point shooter than most people think. I could see him shooting as well as 35% depending on volume.
- NAW will be a regular member of the rotation by the end of the season, getting 15-20 minutes a night.
- We will win at least 40 games.
- Jrue Holiday will shoot better than 36% from three this year, returning to his high quality shooting from some time ago.
- We will have 3 players on the roster make an all-defensive team.

NBA in general:
- The Houston Rockets will be worse than they were last year.
- Philadelphia will disappoint a lot of people, and while they will definitely be a top 3 team in the East, they will be clearly inferior to Milwaukee still.
- The Los Angeles Lakers will win under 50 games and disappoint a lot of their fanbase. People will be calling for Vogel to be fired by January.
- RJ Barrett will have an abominable rookie season, and the Knicks fans will crucify him for it, but he won't actually deserve it, at least not all of it.


So, hot takes and predictions! Post 'em.

[Taker597]

I think Rockets will stay on par for what they've been doing. They'll never reached the heights of their 2017 season.

Philly lack of shooting is a glaring hole. And I honestly don't see them being part of the elite. They have no small ball lineup. A Point Forward playing PG full time. I feel these guys will have some late game collapse due to pace. They can try to run half court press and slow the game down, but their best shooter is a streaky Tobias Harris. Just screams a bad fit with no flexibility. If Horford starts breaking down. The wheels are gonna fall off. They should of just ran last year's squad back, but Butler wanted out..

I agree the Lakers lack of depth gonna cause some issues down the stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised if their schedule starts out soft just to take advantage of a fast start..

I think RJ is gonna be a less talented Andrew Wiggins with a Mamba Mentality.

I think Denver will trend in the middle of the pack as while as Utah. In the 4th-8th seed range.

We are battling for the 8th seed between the Mavs, GSW, Spurs, and Kings.

I think we will have a better defense than Philly.

[PeliKhan]

I dont really have a prediction, but I'm. Curious as to gow JJ performs, and his spot in the rotation. I think he'll be a big reason as to if we are a 40+ win season..

[Pelicanidae]

Philly lack of shooting is a glaring hole. And I honestly don't see them being part of the elite. They have no small ball lineup. A Point Forward playing PG full time. I feel these guys will have some late game collapse due to pace. They can try to run half court press and slow the game down, but their best shooter is a streaky Tobias Harris. Just screams a bad fit with no flexibility. If Horford starts breaking down. The wheels are gonna fall off. They should of just ran last year's squad back, but Butler wanted out..

I think RJ is gonna be a less talented Andrew Wiggins with a Mamba Mentality.

I think we will have a better defense than Philly.

Yeah, I basically agree with these. Philly's shooting is even worse than ours, imo. They have Harris and Richardson in their starting lineup, who are acceptable shooters, and Horford isn't terrible, but there's nobody on our roster who is as much as a nothing from the perimeter as Simmons, and Embiid is a woeful shooter as well. Their bench has basically nothing on it in terms of reliable shooting if my memory serves correctly.

The issue is that the have two stars, and those two stars thrive in opposite systems. Simmons wants to minimise his halfcourt flaws by running, because he's great in transition, he can grab and go on offense, he's faster than a lot of guys his size, etc, but it's impossible to run for 48 minutes when you also have to feed Joel Embiid post touches on a consistent basis. They have a kind of split personality offense that really grinds their two best players off each other.

Agreed on the defense as well. I think Embiid's defense is greatly overrated, and while Simmons and Horford are both very capable defenders, I don't think they have the 1-5 defense we have, and a lot of their guys are just too big to maintain switchability without exposing people to unwanted mismatches: not all of their guys can guard all positions.

RJ is basically that, I think. It's weird, around February I was kind of warmer on him than most, but by April I had him slipping past Culver to 4th. He's just so stiff, he has very little fluidity in his joints and his game doesn't seem to come naturally to him. People point out that he reclassified so he's still really young, which is true, but the fact that he was basically the same guy all year at Duke that he was in high school is extremely worrying for his progression: you'd wanna see at least some improvement somewhere. And the Knicks are the worst team for him to be on to fix those things. Lots of pressure immediately, and the signings they made are terrible fits with him and his development.

[Mythrol]

My hot take:

The Pelicans will make it further in the playoffs than the Lakers this year.

[luckyman]

The Pelicans either totally flop or march into the playoffs a top 6 seed minimum.
Lonzo Ball will be an all-star.
NAW becomes permanent backup point guard in December.
Pelicans are #1 in defensive efficiency multiple times.

[Biasvasospasm]

Despite showing limited scoring repertoire and almost no reliable jump shot, Zion will win ROY behind high level at-rim efficiency, good rebound, steal, and block numbers, and excellent foul drawing. Despite being very efficient and posting good box score numbers and advanced stats, many NBA fans will continue to call him overrated or a bust because of the shooting struggles outside of the painted area.

The Pelicans will struggle more than expected for the first two months behind a defense that struggles to get established but will have a very strong end of the season, with a top 10 defense for the latter half.

NAW will make an all-rookie team despite limited opportunities to start.

Brandon Ingram will have a good but not All-Star level year with improvements in his free throw shooting percentage and 3 pt attempt rate with improvement to league average efficiency. He will be given a max or near-max contract offer by Atlanta, and after making some improvements in shooting it will be a widely debated decision on here whether to match or let him go.

[GuardianAngel25]

I think we will surprise people and be one of the better 3pt shooting teams in the NBA. I think both Ingram and Ball take their shooting to the next level and reach their potential in this area. I see Jrue possibly hovering around 40% front 3pt with this being the only area he really needs to work on this offseason and what can possibly get him in the MVP discussion. Zion is going to struggle from 3pt early on until he fixes a couple of things in his shot. It’s not that he can’t shoot but he will have a much harder time getting off clean shots in the NBA due to how low he releases the ball. We same some of these issues in the SL and at times at Duke.

[luckyman]

Despite showing limited scoring repertoire and almost no reliable jump shot,

He might have a limited jump shot, but he does not have a limited scoring repertoire at all. He has a good enough handle and footwork to not only create his own shot from the wings, but also good vision to create for others.

His entry into the league is much more toward Lebron than AD.

[Pelicanidae]

He might have a limited jump shot, but he does not have a limited scoring repertoire at all. He has a good enough handle and footwork to not only create his own shot from the wings, but also good vision to create for others.

His entry into the league is much more toward Lebron than AD.

Yeah, agreed.

Remember this chart?

Zion Williamson’s Synergy chart: 85th percentile or higher in all but 1 category pic.twitter.com/VWPyjyeYHI

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) June 5, 2019

Obviously it's not perfect, college basketball is college basketball, and there were limited possessions in some of these types of play, but Zion's ability to score in a number of ways is indisputable.

You don't rank in the 85th percentile or better in transition, cuts, putbacks, post ups, isolation, coming off screens, as PnR ball handler, AND off hand-offs by not having the ability to adapt and score in multiple ways. The fact that Zion was only used as PnR roll man a handful of times in college is a travesty, and we'll definitely see more of that at the NBA level as well, another area he was excellent.

[GuardianAngel25]

The PnR is not the same in college basketball. The 3pt line closes up the lane so much it makes it tough for Zion to be as effective as a roll man. I remember Coach K explaining this years ago with it being one of the biggest adjustments for bigs going to the NBA. The NCAA needs to adapt and copy the NBA. If they just change one thing it’s needs to be the 3pt line. Players like Zion and Simmons had so much of their talents smothered do to the paint being clogged. Zion will be a better pro imo because if this one huge factor. Would also give us a much better idea who can actually shoot at this range. Just makes little sense to have these young guys mostly being bigs have to learn how to play the game when it’s already hard enough.

[Pelicanidae]

The PnR is not the same in college basketball. The 3pt line closes up the lane so much it makes it tough for Zion to be as effective as a roll man. I remember Coach K explaining this years ago with it being one of the biggest adjustments for bigs going to the NBA. The NCAA needs to adapt and copy the NBA. If they just change one thing it’s needs to be the 3pt line. Players like Zion and Simmons had so much of their talents smothered do to the paint being clogged. Zion will be a better pro imo because if this one huge factor. Would also give us a much better idea who can actually shoot at this range. Just makes little sense to have these young guys mostly being bigs have to learn how to play the game when it’s already hard enough.

There's definitely some truth to that, particularly because of how cramped the Duke offense was all year. Zion was a better shooter for most of the year than people gave him credit for, but there's no universe where he should have been taking more spot up possessions than post ups. RJ obviously couldn't shoot, Reddish was disappointing as a college shooter, so the spacing at Duke was just disgusting.

Still, the point is that when he did get the opportunity to play that roll man role, he did well in it. What's super promising to me is that efficiency as the PnR ball handler. That's exciting. Looking forward to players in the half court where there are shooters on the floor (Hart/Redick?) and we get to see the occasional Zion/Favors 4-5 PnR. That could be fun.

[Wowowowow]

A lot of people who think his game is limited, I chalk it up to not understanding that what they are looking for died in front of our very eyes in the last 10 years. The players who depended on that style either were put on the chopping block, scoring without impact results, or they became 8+ 3 point shooters to fit their game into an analytical basketball game that would have turned its back on them.

The way Zion was used by coach K was brilliant to me and prepared him for the league. His style is what is analytically correct for a dominate offensive 2 point scorer in todays league. His motor is what will force the game to evolve with him. Many won’t understand what coach K just did until it hits them in the face.

[Wowowowow]

Rockets are an enigma to me. I can’t call them yet. Apart of me thinks they’ll actually overachieve in a regular season where their style and team make up is so intense and due to the success of the raptors, other western conference teams could load manage their guys. Adding Westbrook to this Harden Capela read option system may actually benefit them if Westbrook uses all that attention to his benefit with the first step advantage.

Outside shooting, like everyone else, will be what tells us what kind of season they will have but it would not surprise me if their team overachieves in the regular season.

[13 - 3]

Mr. Wowowow you sound like Guardian Angel & Dathrone

[msusousaphone]

I also say 'early and disappointing exit for Houston' and think that IF OKC stays intact they will surprise people.

Either LeBron or AD will miss significant time and the team will bottom out during that period.

The PnR is not the same in college basketball. The 3pt line closes up the lane so much it makes it tough for Zion to be as effective as a roll man. I remember Coach K explaining this years ago with it being one of the biggest adjustments for bigs going to the NBA. The NCAA needs to adapt and copy the NBA. If they just change one thing it’s needs to be the 3pt line. Players like Zion and Simmons had so much of their talents smothered do to the paint being clogged. Zion will be a better pro imo because if this one huge factor. Would also give us a much better idea who can actually shoot at this range. Just makes little sense to have these young guys mostly being bigs have to learn how to play the game when it’s already hard enough.

I agree but they're probably fine with it 'leveling the playing field'. Makes the tournament more up in the air.

[JJackisangry]

We will be preseason champions.

[DaPelFromHell]

Jrue Holiday is gonna start the year at point guard. It just makes the most sense with the way the roster is currently structured. He was top 5 in assists last year and I think we would rather Zion have an experienced point guard running things to begin his career here in NOLA. I just don’t see who the backup point guard would be if Lonzo starts. Frank Jackson or NAW? I don’t think so. JJ Redick will start at shooting guard to open things up for Zion, Ingram, Jrue, & D-Fav. That starting 5 will be one of the better in the league and will surprise a lot of teams. All 5 guys should get us double figures scoring. D-Fav will be allowed to play like he’s capable and will surprise people. Utah was holding him back offensively. He should be a double double machine. Zion, Ingram, Jrue, & Redick should be able to get us 20 a night most nights. I doubt all 4 will average that, but at least 3 of them should get us that every night.

The second unit is gonna be fearsome with Lonzo Ball & Jaxson Hayes surrounded by shooters in NAW, Melli, Moore, Hart, & Miller. The PnR with Lonzo and Hayes will be something to watch against backup level players in the league. Interested in seeing the battle for minutes at the backup 3 spot between Etwaun Moore, Josh Hart, & Darius Miller. Moore has been one of our better players/scorers the last few years, so I give him the edge right now. Maybe both him and Hart may play over NAW to begin the season, but NAW will be one of our main backup players sooner rather than later. Also interested to see how Nicolo Melli looks. We must be really high on him cause he looks to be our only true backup power forward on the roster right now. We will likely see Hayes play some there as well when Okafor gets some minutes.

Then hopefully after we build a nice lead, Jrue & Lonzo play together to shut down any chance at a comeback.

C: D-Fav, Hayes, Okafor
PF: Zion, Melli, Williams
SF: Ingram, Moore, Miller
SG: Redick, NAW, Hart
PG: Jrue, Ball, Jackson

Depending on injuries and how quickly this team gels, we could be looking for an 8th seed in the playoffs IMO. We certainly have the talent on paper to be really good as soon as this year. If the second unit ends up like how I have listed, I’m extremely excited to see that team take the court. Not too many teams can march out a second unit with that much talent.

[Pelicanidae]

Man, I am impressed. I wasn't expecting any post with such a high concentration of hot takes and contentious statements so quickly.

Ball won't start, Jrue will be the starting PG, Hayes will get heavy minutes including at power forward over Okafor, Moore is still listed as a SF.

Ooof

[SoCal4Pels]

Pelicans related:
- Zion Williamson will be a much better three point shooter than most people think. I could see him shooting as well as 35% depending on volume.
- NAW will be a regular member of the rotation by the end of the season, getting 15-20 minutes a night.
- We will win at least 40 games.
- Jrue Holiday will shoot better than 36% from three this year, returning to his high quality shooting from some time ago.
- We will have 3 players on the roster make an all-defensive team.

NBA in general:
- The Houston Rockets will be worse than they were last year.
- Philadelphia will disappoint a lot of people, and while they will definitely be a top 3 team in the East, they will be clearly inferior to Milwaukee still.
- The Los Angeles Lakers will win under 50 games and disappoint a lot of their fanbase. People will be calling for Vogel to be fired by January.
- RJ Barrett will have an abominable rookie season, and the Knicks fans will crucify him for it, but he won't actually deserve it, at least not all of it.


So, hot takes and predictions! Post 'em.

I would be beyond thrilled if Zion shoots 35%!! Unfortunately I still have a bad taste in my mouth after drafting the excellent-shooting Lonzo and his inability to translate that thus far to the NBA. So I am keeping my hopes in check. However, I am optimistic about Zion's future shooting because he shoots with confidence and he doesn't seem to have anything glaringly wrong with his stroke. Needs more arc on his FT's though

Everything else sounds pretty damn reasonable. Really hope NAW gets the time to prove himself. 3 on the all-defensive team would be amazing, and I think is within the realm of possibility.

The below is something I have tried to post countless times in countless threads and after getting the message 'your post will be reviewed by a moderator', it never actually posts. 28th time's a charm (edit: yay, it finally posted!):

Here's a vague stab at what I think could happen as far as minutes distribution.

240 minutes total per game / 5 positions. Bigs and older veterans you want to give more rest to during the regular season, try to get minutes for the rookies you want to develop. Guys at the end of the list could get spot minutes in experimental lineups and can fill in if we get hit by injuries. Obviously this will shift around depending on who is keeping up on defense and who is knocking down their 3's. I can see us running Zion at the 5 for some stretches of small ball, especially since Griffin said he sees himself as a turbo-charged Draymond (!!!), but I also see him playing some minutes at the 3, but I was trying to squeeze in minutes for Melli. I am hoping Hayes is strong and savvy enough to take Okafor's minutes at the 5.

1 - Lonzo 28, Jrue 17, NAW 3, Ingram, Zion
2 - Jrue 15, Reddick 26, Hart 4, NAW 3, Moore, Melli
3 - Ingram 30, Hart 14, Melli 4, Zion, Moore, NAW
4 - Zion 21, Favors 12, Melli 15, Ingram, Hayes
5 - Favors 18, Okafor 11, Zion 10, Hayes 9, Melli

[SoCal4Pels]

I think we will surprise people and be one of the better 3pt shooting teams in the NBA. I think both Ingram and Ball take their shooting to the next level and reach their potential in this area.

Fingers crossed for that! Unfortunately, I have had them crossed for a couple years now and it is now physically impossible to uncross them.

[Pelicanidae]

I would be beyond thrilled if Zion shoots 35%!! Unfortunately I still have a bad taste in my mouth after drafting the excellent-shooting Lonzo and his inability to translate that thus far to the NBA. So I am keeping my hopes in check. However, I am optimistic about Zion's future shooting because he shoots with confidence and he doesn't seem to have anything glaringly wrong with his stroke. Needs more arc on his FT's though

Everything else sounds pretty damn reasonable. Really hope NAW gets the time to prove himself. 3 on the all-defensive team would be amazing, and I think is within the realm of possibility.

The below is something I have tried to post countless times in countless threads and after getting the message 'your post will be reviewed by a moderator', it never actually posts. 28th time's a charm (edit: yay, it finally posted!):

I'm not gonna talk too much about rotations, just because like you said, it's a real head scratcher this year. So many things to consider, so many things unclear, god knows who actually ends up in the rotation by the end of the year.

The reason I think Zion could end up being a better shooter by the end of the year than we think is pretty simple: he was a better shooter than most think at college. He finished the year with a 33% mark from behind the arc, which is higher than Barrett's and about even with Reddish's, both of whom are players most people seem to think are more accurate shooters than him.

But the reason he finished with a 33% mark is because he started the season absolutely awfully. He shot 17% from 3 in the first 12 games, which is just terrible, and he was on an uphill struggle from then on for his percentage. For the final 21 games after that though, he shot 39.6% from 3, on 2.5 attempts per game, which is actually pretty good. That percentage kept climbing as the season went on: in the final 10 games he played, he shot 41.4% from 3 on 2.5 attempts per game, and in the final 7 games (actual tournament games), he shot 43.5% on 3.3 attempts per game.

Obviously those are small sample sizes, and I'm not trying to say he'll be a 40% three point shooter any time soon, if ever. Of course not. But his touch out to 8 or 10 feet is obvious, and his shooting from 3 improved consistently as the season went along. With a whole summer and camp to work out, work on his shot, and get practise in, I think it's totally possible that he'll be a decent low volume shooter even in his rookie year.