That would leave us with no backup PF.Originally Posted by SonOfNOLA
 |
| . |
|
That would leave us with no backup PF.
I feel like Jackson and Kenrich will very probably spend a lot of time sitting. The third guy really depends and may well change throughout the season. I can imagine it being Melli at first depending on how ready he is to play given his surgery he just had, but if he's ready to go I'd imagine it would probably start as Hayes. I can see it being Moore or Miller as the season goes on, though, and the young guys get more opportunities/trade deadline approaches. Don't be surprised if Moore gets squeezed out of the rotation by NAW or Hart and becomes that third guy by December or January.
Basketball.
Reddick is a 2, tho. Ingram don't lose minutes unless you talking about that line up I threw out. I'm just talking about the rotation in general. The line up was an idea. I moved on from that thought. Sorry for the confusion
It's great thing to have in Btb games and in 5 games in 7 days. We will have plenty of minutes to give out all season. Just gonna see some wild rotations and weird minutes.
I could see Jrue sliding to the 3 in certain match up as long he has Zo to switch on defense.
We probably see a lot of our back up guards rotating to fill SF back up spot. I remember being talks about trying to run a 3 guard bench rotation to spread out minutes against team with weak backup SFs(Which the position is very top heavy in talent)
I think we will manage just fine after further thinking about it.
You may be right. But, Moore is a Gentry favorite and if the team wants to maximize his trade value at mid-year, he will be playing early on.
I agree with that, for sure. Jrue will definitely play at least a handful of minutes at the three, and so will Hart in all likelihood. I could easily imagine a 1-2-3 unit of Lonzo/Redick/Jrue being rolled out at certain times, particularly when other teams are going small and we need to keep defensive players. I wouldn't even be surprised if we occasionally saw a lineup of Lonzo/Redick/Jrue/Miller/Favors, in an attempt to maximise defensive versatility at key positions and just flooding gaps with shooting.
Miller Williams and Hayes won't dress the healthy games. But we have a lot of injury prone players, and Redick could use load management, so I think everyone will get opportunity.
I don't see the Pelicans DNP Jackson after making him a healthy summer league scratch.
We'll run a lot of 3 guard. Ingram might even be at the 4 in some lineups.
It's far more likely Miller plays than Frank does. We're much deeper at the guard spots than we are at the forward spots, and Frank didn't show us any of the encouraging signs we'd need to pencil him in for guaranteed minutes at that backup PG spot.
Idk, Griff seems pretty adamant about being a defensive team that can run instead of grit and grind half court team in interviews. He brought in one of the best defensive coaches available. I think Gentry has to be on board to help achieve that vision.
Don't get me wrong, I can definitely see it going as you suggest. But, I also think we, as fans, have never given Moore his due, With all the Asiks, Ajinzas, Babbitts, Hills, Cunninghams and Fredettes stinking up the place, he's been one of the few constants on a team filled with inconsistency over the past few years. There is something to be said about that.
Last edited by As I See It; 07-17-2019 at 05:59 PM.
Hayes is pretty clearly the 15th man to start the season. Sure, it'd be nice to be able to get him some spot minutes here or there, but we're trying to make the playoffs and he's nowhere near ready to play in the NBA either physically or mentally. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get some G league stints. Beyond that, you're probably looking at Jackson, NAW, and Williams as the other inactive candidates. Inevitably some players will be banged up and I don't think having too many good players is much of a problem.
I don't see that that's clear at all.
If you're trying to pick the one man who really, just clearly, should not be suiting up, it's Frank. Hayes is raw in many respects, and yes, he needs to put on weight and get some fundamental improvements down, but he has a few big advantages over Frank.
- Frank's fighting for minutes as a guard. We are stacked at the guard spots, so minutes will be hard to come back. Hayes is a legitimate, 7'0'' big, probably our shallowest position right now, so he has much less competition.
- Hayes was the #8 pick in this draft. Frank was a second round pick. It's much less common for a top #10 lottery pick to basically sit out their entire first year than for a second round bench guy to get a DNP.
- Frank's skillset is extremely limited. He can score, but he can't pass, he has poor vision, he's not a rebounder, his defense is bad, he's too short (height and wingspan) to be effective as a switch defender, and he's relatively low IQ on the court. Hayes' skillset is limited too, but the skills he does have translate more immediately. He's an excellent finisher, and that will translate. He's a capable passer for a guy at his stage: he can't playmake, but neither can Frank. He's a better defender than Frank already, despite his basic errors, because he has faster feet, can switch across three positions already, and has the verticality to contest at the rim even with poor position.
- Hayes is a possession terminator. Unlike Frank, who (outside of a few solid cuts here and there) is primarily a guy who handles the ball for himself and who doesn't seek to pass. When at his scoring best, he is relatively ball dominant, and is best used as a play initiator. That's a problem because he can't pass. Hayes isn't a play initiator: he doesn't need the ball at all. He terminates plays: dunks, rim-running, put-backs, tip-ins, all of those translate. That's an easier role to slide in and out of than lead ball-handler.
I'm not saying Hayes is gonna start or anything. He definitely won't. But if you had to pick one guy who is clearly on the outside looking in, it's Frank.
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 07-18-2019 at 02:07 PM.
IMO, if the Pelicans weren't counting on Jackson to be in the rotation this year, they wouldn't have sat him in the summer. Instead they would have showcased him to up his worth against inferior talent. But hey, I'm not the GM in this forum; that distinction belongs to another who speaks in absolutes terms like some kind an expert, and is totally intolerant and dismissive of others' opinions. Talk about a fragile ego. If Jackson were to get the 'DNP - Coach's Decision" designation, I would suggest that Miller or Williams would be the next man up as there is no clear cut back up for the 3.
Yes, honey, it's true, everyone has one, and some can also be one.
Honestly, I think Hayes will probably spend a good bit of time at the 4 starting out, because his positive seem to magnify when he gets to play in space with less physical imposing 4s.
I think at no point will we see Hayes play the 5s against elite starters unless maybe at the very end of the season.
People talking about there being no minutes for Hayes needs to see the roster. The only 2 position where we don't have minutes is at guard. We got a slew of extra minutes to hand out from 3-5.
I don't think that Hayes will play against elite starter 5s at all this year. I've been probably the biggest proponent of him getting minutes, getting play, seeing the NBA court, but even I don't think he should be playing minutes against Embiid, Gobert, Adams, Whiteside, etc. They're too big, too strong, and will get too much benefit of the doubt from refs for me to want to risk it. I don't even think he'll be ready by the end of the season for that. Maybe next year, if his weight training goes well.
I struggle to see him playing the 4, not necessarily because he couldn't play the 4 (I think long term, he'll be able to guard probably 1 through 5), but because I'd be kind of nervous about rolling out lineups with him and either Favors/Okafor. Just big, big bodies that aren't really playmakers or spaces together. Maybe Hayes' jumper is really real already and he shows that in practise, in which case it's more likely, but excluding that possibility I feel like he should be playing his minutes really at the 5 almost exclusively as a rookie, in faster, more free-flowing offensive groups. Something with Lonzo on the court maybe, to maximise his cutting and rolling with an elite passer, and some shooters.
I'm more worried about elite guards than elite bigs for Hayes. His fouling is worrisome and that's usually a guards beard and butter. Especially, when you can't breathe on players like Harden or Curry.
He can't get minutes if he is bait for guards to catch easy fouls. I hope learns to play with better control and still probably catch 4 bs fouls in 10 minutes..
I don't really mind too much about fouls. Young big men, especially when they're actually playing defense, foul a lot. Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo, Mark Eaton, Draymond Green, they all fouled a TON as rookies. Mark Eaton was notable for averaging ''fouled out'' per 100
Hayes has elite defensive potential, even on guards, but you still don't want him guarding elite guards, at least not very much. That's partly why I think having him on the floor with Lonzo would help. Not only would Lonzo's vision open up his offense with lobs, rim running, and fast break potential, but Lonzo is also capable of actually sticking to a guard and locking on to them, which would minimise how often Hayes gets stuck on an island with a real star guard.
You're right though, it is an issue that might impact his minutes, and I feel like for some games where that's likely to become a huge issue, he may not even get on the floor. I feel like he should be playing somewhere between 40 and 50 games this year (only with maybe 10 minutes a night, as I've said elsewhere) and its possible that they would pick which games to play him around who they feel like he would be able to handle at this point in his progression.
It's easy to say you'll want Hayes to strictly play against back up, but it does not works out that way most time. They'll see Hayes on the floor and the opposing team will probably substitute to take advantage of it immediately. So, I think it's important to develop him with 4/5 versatility in mind. You can hide a 4 lot easier than 5 on the fly without trashing a rotation.
It goes back to Griff vision of bring in players that are versatile.
Granted... Even Griff was surprised by Hayes at Summer League. Hayes went from a guy that gonna sit on the bench to them talking about how they can get Hayes and Zion on the floor at the same time.
At the end of the day, Hayes would have to really exceed day one expectations. He blew us away at SL. So, I'm gonna step back. Sit up the bowling ball pins again with conservatives
Expectations for him to knock them down again.
It's just a really exciting time.
Honestly, the Zion/Hayes tandem might be the best way to get Hayes on the floor as a 4. Zion is, as we all know, about 6'9, and regardless of anything else there's no question that he can play the 5 immediately. Obviously you don't want him being the exclusive 5 for long stretches of time, it's unfair on a rookie to do that really, but he will walk into the league as one of the strongest players in all of basketball. Being able to play Zion at the 5 opens a lot of doors, and Hayes at the 4 is one of them. Especially if, like I said, Hayes shows that jumper to be legit.
Obviously that's a duo that would be insane in transition as well. Lonzo could also play with that group, which means that with Zion and Lonzo on the floor you'd have enough elite defense and versatility, especially help defense (which both Zo and Zion are great at), that even if Hayes got in some trouble there would be team mates who could save him. The only issue is that, even if Hayes' jumper is real, you would need the other two spots to be shooters, unquestionably. Otherwise the floor just becomes miniscule.
It is a super exciting time though. I'm beyond hyped for next season.
One, how about you try speaking for yourself only. Two, he's not 6'9". And three, there are many questions about whether he can play the five. I have questions. Others have questions. Just because you don't have questions doesn't mean there aren't any questions.
Okay, how's this:
''Zion, as many of us on this forum have discussed multiple times, using multiple sources of evidence including both photographs and video, seems to be several inches taller than his listed 6'6'', and somewhere around 6'9'' seems to be generally agreed upon by much of the Pelicans fanbase, which would be neither surprising nor unexpected given that his 6'6'' measurement was taken some considerable time ago and people generally grow somewhat in their late teenage years.
Given that, and his strength, it seems fairly evident to me, and to many people on this board and elsewhere, that Zion will be perfectly able to play at least some minutes at the 5 in the style of a Draymond Green small-ball centre, a concept which I have as of yet seen pretty much nobody question. There remains, as always, a slim possibility that there are those who would question it, in much the same way that there are those who don't believe Jokic to be a top 15 player, but those people are such a minority that, for the sake of both brevity and the conventional rhetorical usage of set lexical phrases such as ''there's no question'' (also ''there's no doubt'', for example), they aren't really worth including because it would both distract from the point I'm making as well as unnecessarily extend the length of this relatively simple statement to absurd proportions for no reason other than to satisfy the pedantry of any contrarians who may or may not wish to cherry pick this incredibly small and relatively innocuous section of a much longer point for the sake of smug self-satisfaction.''
Prefer that?
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 07-18-2019 at 11:22 PM.
Honestly, if you think I'm wrong and you do have questions, just saying ''Hey, I've got questions about him playing the 5'' and then putting those doubts and questions forward is probably a much more productive way to get your point across than just going for the kill
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 07-18-2019 at 11:35 PM.
Our 4/5 rotation has Favors, Zion, Melli, Ingram, Okafor...we're not really thin there.
I think Hayes is our 15th man to start the season, I didn't say he'd sit out the entire year. Frank's draft position is pretty irrelevant in his third year. It's also pretty uncommon for a top 10 lottery pick to have only played two seasons of organized ball.
For all of his faults, Frank brings something that we desperately need...shooting. Reddick, Moore, and Miller are our only proven guys behind the arc. Optimistic for Melli and Jrue can obviously have a good year, but we're going to be playing a lot of non-3pt shooters a lot of minutes. Also, I wouldn't say that Hayes is a better defender than Frank...note that he got subbed off the floor in SL when we needed defensive stops. If we're fighting for a playoff spot, it's hard to believe that Gentry will have 3 rookies in his rotation, and, as of now, I'd think NAW would be ahead of Hayes.
Giving Frank the ball and saying "go to work" probably isn't the best use of talent with this roster, but I think he can definitely fill a role as spot up 3pt shooter.
The issue is that I think we get into a big of a mix-up when it comes to bigs. Some people, when they talk about bigs, seem to just mean anyone taller than 6'8. That's a big. Regardless of how they play, or their role on the floor. For me, when I talk about bigs, I'm referring to guys who are generally (yes) tall, but whose primary roles are more as play terminators, glass cleaners, possession enders, and someone who will spend time defending the same. I don't really see someone like Melli as competing for minutes with Favors or Okafor, for example, because his skillset is so different and the role he will be asked to play will be so different too: he's much more likely to be competing for minutes with Miller, for example.
So when I talk about us being thin at the 5, what I mean is, we're thin when it comes to legitimate 5s, whose primary focus is terminating plays, defending other bigs, etc. We only really have Favors and Okafor in that role. Melli, as I said, seems to me more like he'll be competing for minutes at that 3 and 4 spot rather than 5, and similarly, Ingram will be spending the vast majority of his minutes at the 3. If we ever get into a position where Ingram is being asked to commit serious minutes to guarding a legitimate 5, we're probably in a little bit of trouble because he weighs about as much as Rudy Gobert's left foot.
I wouldn't say that Frank's draft position is irrelevant. It would be, if he had made it so: for example, Draymond Green's draft position is now irrelevant because he's played far past it. Frank still plays like a second rounder, and that's hard to avoid. Frank's not even that great of a shooter, to be honest: he shot 31.4% from three last year. He shot pretty well from the corners at around 42%, but those made up less than 29% of his three point attempts because he much prefers to play with the ball in his hands, which is not a good look. A lot of the time people will refer to the final ten games of the year to show that he really can shoot, because he had games during that time where he went 3/4 from deep, for example, but across those final 10 games he still only shot 33% from behind the arc, and the lack of playmaking was even more painful there: he was getting 33 minutes a game and average 2 assists. That's dreadful. Honestly, I would much rather have Jrue (career 35.5% 3pt shooter, shot 36.5% after ASB last season) taking a three than Jackson, unquestionably.
It's true that Hayes got subbed off the floor for a defensive possession in Summer League. That's less because he can't play defense though, and more because they couldn't risk the foul, which he is liable to give up: he is, of course, still learning. Frank, on the other hand, doesn't have the same excuse that Hayes does. He's not a rookie, he's not 19, he hasn't been playing basketball for two years. Frank's 2 years older, and has two years of NBA experience (only one year playing, obviously), and he turned up a -15 net rating last season for us. His DBPM was -2.8, and his DRPM was -2.54. That means Frank's DRPM ranked 95th out of the 99 players at point guard last season.
Players shot 18% better than their averages at the rim when Frank was their primary defender. 4.7% better than their averages from 3. 9.5% from midrange. He was bad. Getting guarded by Frank was like a cheat code: it wasn't pretty. Hayes wouldn't be a perfect defender, he would definitely make mistakes, I'm not denying that, but there's no way he gives up 18% BETTER at the rim. That's just not happening. He's a 7'0'' with good rim protection instincts. He can swipe at the ball sometimes, sure, but if you compare him to (say) Mitchell Robinson, another foul-prone 7'0'' who played last season and made a lot of mistakes, Robinson held opponents to -9.5% on their averages. Of course, Mitchell was a fantastic rim protector and maybe Hayes wouldn't be that good, but even if he only hit at half of Mitchell's rim protection abilities, he would still be a massive improvement on Frank. Beyond that, Frank was consistently bad: Hayes, even in Summer League, showed that while he was prone to mistakes at times, he also had very impressive flashes of his defensive potential far beyond what Frank has ever shown, including multiple occasions where he was switched onto guards and had the foot speed to track them from the perimeter all the way into the paint, without getting shaken loose or beaten.
And remember, even if Frank did serve a good role as a 3pt spot up guy (which I don't think he would), who is he taking minutes from at the guard spots? Not Ball, Jrue, Redick, or Moore, that's for sure. So is he taking them from NAW, who has shown a much more controlled and disciplined game? Personally, and this is just my judgement, I think that would be a bad move. Hayes, on the other hand, doesn't have to take minutes from anyone. There's no logjam at center. The only people really ahead of him are Okafor and Favors, and occasional spot minutes for Zion. It's far more likely that, at the end of rotation, there's 5-10 minutes for Hayes than it is for there to be 10 minutes for Frank.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
