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Say what you want about the kid, but he can ball now, and still has a ton of upside. Unbelievably talented. I totally see the KD comparisons. KD is taller and longer but I think Ingram is a better ball handler. Both can flat out shoot it. At this point in their respective careers ( in their early 20s), Ingram seems to be a more willing defender. Glad he's on the team and I wouldn't trade him.
Last edited by Dr. Sting; 07-17-2019 at 02:32 AM.
I'm looking for real sports fans...not sheep! Are you with me?!!!
[QUOTE=bdnp1;1503101]Christian Wood is 23 and he's just as thin as Ingram. I'm glad he doesn't he isn't all into the social media stuff. Neither am I.Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
Yeah but he looks a lot more frail now than he did last year. The medical problems may have set him back physically. The team is going to have to put him on a nutrition plan.
So did Wiggins, but you still don't overpay for potential. You'll just end up with an untradeable contract. Atleast Ben Simmons being forced to being a Point forward before he develops a shot is not his fault.. Fultz busting changed everything for Philly..
Also: KD has so many major advantages over Ingram that it's kind of unfair to compare them. That's not even an insult to Ingram, KD is just a top 25 player of all time and a current top 5 guy, and Ingram isn't.
Basketball.
[QUOTE=luckyman;1503105]Wood weighs 20lbs more than Ingram. About 210lbs.
Which is, funnily enough, the weight I said that Ingram would have to get to before I started feeling more confident in his body.
You mentioned that Ingram just turned 21 and that most people don't grow into their adult bodies by that point, which is true. But first of all, Ingram didn't just turn 21, like yesterday: he's turning 22 on September 2nd. That's kind of whatever, but let's be accurate here.
The problem with the ''most people don't grow into their bodies'' argument is that we have an entire league of NBA players to look at, and most of them have been in the league at the age of 20, 21, 22, and we can actually see what ''most'' NBA players looked like at that age. It's true that most of them had some way to go in terms of improving their body, sure, nobody is denying that. But it's also true that most of them didn't look the same (or worse) heading into year 4 in comparison to how they did in year 1. You expect to see some progress across basically 4 years. Most people don't look the same at 25 as they do at 22, but most people also don't look the same at 22 as they did at 18, and Ingram does. Where's the progress?
The comparison Ingram always gets to excuse his weight issues is KD, but as I've pointed out, KD is maybe 2 inches taller than Ingram, but he weighs forty pounds more. It's a silly comparison because even if Ingram were to put on 25lbs, he would still be skinnier than Durant is, so using Durant as the litmus test as to whether or not someone is too skinny or not is kind of weird.
[QUOTE=bdnp1;1503101]He went through a major surgery.
Meh to this post , Ingram will be our leading scorer this year guaranteed .
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I'm not putting anything past Jrue Holliday. He's averaged over 20 points a game over the last two years while being the team's primary facilitator, Now, much of the playmaking is being removed from his plate and he's being asked to be a finisher. I think, barring injury, he rises to the occasion.
A guy that's not a 20 point scorer is gonna out score the legit 20 point scorer already on our team. Bold move, cotton.
What you really should be saying that we need Ingram to be our 2nd best scorer or he's probably walking or getting trade.
I agree with Taker. Ingram might be trade bait. Grif. Might be idea for something bigger. Like Myles Turner
Find that hard to believe. Ingram has scoring potential, but he's only ever averaged more than 20ppg for a single month in his career, and he's coming on to a team that's stacked with offensive talent. He was the de facto 2nd option in LA, and averaged 18ppg: he'll more likely be the 3rd option here, and unless he really turns electric from 3, I can't see him averaging much more than the 18ppg he did in LA.
Think about it, he got 14 shots a night in LA. Is he gonna get many more than that? Jrue is probably going to average 19 shots or so, because (as Griff has said a bunch of times) he's our leader, our alpha, our vet, and he has been given ''permission to dominate people''. Jrue averaged 17.3 shots a game last year, you have to imagine that probably goes up.
Then we have Zion, who is going to be given a LOT of opportunities. Don't be surprised if he ends up taking around 15 shots a game his rookie year: Donovan Mitchell took 17 shots a game as a rookie, so 14 or 15 for Zion wouldn't be too surprising, and as impressive as Ingram is at the rim, Zion's going to be one of the best finishers in the NBA within a few months: don't be surprised if he shoots 55% or more from the floor.
As a result of that, Ingram is probably going to be third, or he's going to be around the same as Zion: somewhere like 13-15 shots a night. In that case, he'd have to be an absolute sniper from 3 to push his scoring up past Jrue and Zion.
That's not a problem or an insult by the way. I'd much rather Ingram put up 16-18 points a night within the flow of the offense, than have him put up 23 points a night by forcing things and disrupting the team.
the refs will be another reason holding jrue back from being mention in the MVP race.....if jrue get the respect he deserves from the refs when he attacks and get fouled then jrue should be in MVP talks.....imo jrue should be shooting around the same amount of free throws as harden when he attacks the basket...jrue gets beat up and just dont get the calls smh......
now at the end of the season i do believe ingram and jrue will lead us scoring with 20 something averages....think favors will be behind them around 18 doing what randle did for us in this offense.....this team is deep so i expect zion to avg 14/15 in his first season.....
you are wrong for teasing us with Myles Turner.
I'm making a prediction that both Ingram and Lonzo are gonna start off slow. Then they're gonna heat up in December, and then the rest is history.
It's kind of our thing to start the season off slow.
lol but last season was a nice thing to see going 4-0 and running teams out the gym then payton got hurt and we came back to earth lol...
Anyone disagree with these scoring projections for the Pels anticipated starting lineup and JJ:
Lonzo - 11 PPG
Jrue - 21 PPG
Ingram - 17 PPG
Zion - 16 PPG
Favors - 14 PPG
Reddick - 13 PPG
I would not underestimate Grif.
lonzo- 11/12 ppg
jrue- 24 ppg
ingram- 20 ppg
zion- 15 ppg
favors- 18 ppg
JJ- 13 ppg
You just gave me an idea for some stats analysis. Will have more to post later on this topic
Way too early to assume he is trade bait. He has not even stepped on the court yet. Will be interesting to see how they all play together.
I think we when I consider starting off hot... I mean like the first 20 games. Those 4 games where so nice till Payton got hurt.
Unless he balls out. Are we really gonna pay him a 170 MAX, because he at least getting a Max unless he has an injury or historically bad year. Lose all Cap flexibility for the 2021 FA madness
Okay, so, I did some research, did some basic maths, did some basic (but I think fair) assumptions, and figured out roughly what I think is a realistic scoring number for each player from our starting 5 + Redick as the 6th man.
For example, Jrue took 17.3 FGAs last year: 11.9 FGAs from 2, and 5.4 from 3, and he averaged 21.2ppg.
This year, I feel like Jrue may take something more like 19 FGAs per game, with the increased volume coming from 2pt range. My reasoning for this is pretty simple: after all-star break last year, with AD playing the adjusted numbers, Jrue took 18.8 shots per game. Now, with AD gone completely, you can expect that to remain at a similar level, and perhaps increase slightly.
So if he takes, say, 13.9 FGAs from 2, and 5.4 from 3, shooting at roughly the same efficiency he put up last year in the post-AD portion of the season, you'd expect 48% from 2 and 36.5% from 3, which translates to 6.67 2pt FGM per game and 1.97 3PT FGM per game, then that gives you 19.25ppg. Then if you just give him the 4 FTAs he was getting per game during that period, converting the 80.6% rate he was shooting during that time, you get 3.2pts from FTs. Combine the 19.25 and the 3.2, you get 22.45ppg. Is that a pretty reasonable amount of scoring to expect from Jrue next year? I think so. Could be higher, but 22.5ppg seems to be a fairly safe ballpark figure.
Now, the New Orleans Pelicans as a team attempted 92.2 FGAs per game last year, and we are projected to run at an even faster pace this year. So I think it's fair to assume a rough baseline of 100 shots per game to go around for the team. Last year, our starting 5 + the 6th man (Randle, for much of the year) took a combined 76% of all the available shots. A similar distribution wouldn't be unusual this year, which means we have a total of 76 shots a game to give away to these 6 guys. Jrue has already taken up about 19.3 of them. So, how do the remaining 56.7 shots get distributed?
First step is to work out how many Zion might take. The average FGA/g by a rookie first overall pick (excluding Fultz and Bennett for obvious reasons) over the last decade has been 13.6. So, assuming Zion takes 13.6 shots a game, with the same proportions he shot in college (83% of shots from 2pt range), you get him taking 11.3 2pt FGA/g and 2.3 3pt FGA/g. Assuming reasonable efficiencies (50% from the floor, 33% from 3) that translates to 5.65 2pt FGAs made and 0.76 3pt FGAs made per game. That's (5.65*2)+(0.76*3)= 13.6. Assuming he gets to the FT line at a similar rate to in college, we can assume he would be taking 7 FTs per game, and if he hits them at 64% like in college, that's 4.48 points from FTs: 13.6+4.48 = 18.08 ppg for Zion, as a reasonable estimate. Which leaves 39.1 shots remaining for other players.
If you do a sum like this for each of the listed players, this is what you get:
76 total shots available
Jrue Holiday: (13.9 2ptFGA/48% + 5.4 3ptA/36.5% + 4FTAs/80%) = 22.5ppg [56.7 shots remaining]
Zion Williamson: (11.3 2pt/50% + 2.3 3ptA/33% + 7FTAs/64%) = 18.08ppg [43.1 shots remaining]
Brandon Ingram: (11 2pt/49% + 2.2 3ptA/34% + 6FTAs/65%) = 16.92ppg [29.9 shots remaining]
Lonzo Ball: (6 2pt/43% + 4 3ptA/33.5% + 2.5FTAs/50%) = 10.43ppg [19.9 shots remaining]
Derrick Favors: (9.8 2pt/58% + 1 3ptA/30% + 4FTAs/68%) = 14.98ppg [9.1 shots remaining]
J. J. Redick: (2.6 2pt/50% + 6.5 3ptA/42% + 3.5/90%) = 13.94ppg [0 shots remaining]
Now, this could be completely wrong (and probably will be) because it assumes a bunch of stuff. Firstly, it assumes that Ingram and Ball will improve slightly as 3 point shooters. It also assumes Ball improves as a free throw shooter. It assumes that Favors remains as efficient as he was last year in Utah, despite the increased role, and it assumes that all players keep their shot selection roughly proportionate (JJ taking only 29% of his shots from 2 point range, for example, like he did last year). It assumes that guys play with a similar usage rate that they played with last year/in college. It also assumes that ridiculous pace of 100 shots a game, which would (if I remember correctly) be the highest pace in at least 20 years.
But at the end of the day, it gives us a bunch of averages which I think look fairly reasonable.
Jrue: 22.5ppg
Zion: 18ppg
Ingram: 16.9ppg
Ball: 10.4ppg
Favors: 14.9ppg
Redick:13.9ppg
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 07-17-2019 at 04:22 PM.
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