How do y’all think the PELS will win games?

[pelicanchamp]

We have such an exciting new squad. A lot of potential. Our team is being built based on a theory on what it will take to win games.

I like referencing the 4 factors of winning. It’s an interesting model that makes a lot of sense. So how do we win games? Of course we have to adjust based on our opponents. But these factors really make sense and I think we are doing a great job meeting the criteria.
1. High FG% 2. Low in Turnovers 3. Offensive rebounds 4. FTA (not FTM)

It will take a lot of work for me to post all the stats we have, or are likely to get, that exceed a lot of our opponents. So I want to encourage y’all to check out the 4 factors and look at the team and the style of play and what we are trying to do....

What I think we will do is steal the ball a lot and block shots a decent amount and create points by going on a DEADLY fast break. We have Ball, Jrue, Zion to create steals and fast breaks. We have players who are great in transition: Hayes, Ball, Zion, Hart, and Redick. Jrue is decent in transition offense but not like Lonzo. This is where Lonzo and players like Hayes and Zion will be LETHAL. We saw what Jaxson did the other night and we know what ZION is capable of. So, I think we will cause turnovers and we will succeed in offensive rebounding.

Look at Zion’s offensive rebounding. Relative to other players he is outstanding here. Look at Favors advance stats. He is probably going to be elite in offensive rebounding. Both guys may be better offensive rebounders than AD. Check advance stats... this is very good news for our squad. We will likely get more offensive rebounds than our opponents.

Getting to the FT line. I’m not sure we are going to be stronger than a lot of playoff teams at getting FTAs. It looks like these guys will get to the line: Zion, Jrue, Ingram, Favors. Am I missing anyone? AD, Lebron, Cousins will definitely get more FTA and probably higher percentage of FTM. I think we will lose in this category against most above average teams. However, as long as we are consistently scoring and rebounding and playing defense and getting to the line and limiting turnovers I think we will be a playoff team....

1. So, I see Gentry getting our big men, 555llbs of muscle, Zion & Favors, to be PHYSICAL with guys like AD, Towns, Jokic, Kristaps, Lebron etc. be physical and play positional defense. Draymond like defense. Push AD around and get the position we want them to be in on the court. Favors AND Zion appear to be able to do this. So WEAR guys down this way....

2. WEAR teams down with our fast break and breakneck pace. We can wear down guys like Rondo, Kawhi, Klay and Steph, Jokic, Lebron. Some of these guys are older and will tire faster. We can outrun any team in the league. This is exactly what we will do. Score points on the fast break. Our defense will be GOOD.

3. 3 point shooting and overall FG%.... we actually have guys who can shoot 3s. Redick, Miller, Moore, Hart, and even the youngster NAW... and believe it or not I think Lonzo can really knock down 3s. He’s not a shooter but he has a 3 point shot that I think will only get better.... Redick, Hart, Miller and Moore are likely to do the most damage. I expect A LOT of 3 point attempts. I expect above average FG% from 3 and from 2s. Lots of dunks, put backs, and 3s. We could be top 12 in FG%

4. The bottom line is we have the youth, athleticism, and talent to win. We have an incredibly balanced team with veterans who have significant experience and know what it takes to win. These vets can mentor our young guys. Favors, Redick, Jrue, Moore, Miller all have experience and they are high character guys who work hard and can lead. Jrue truly can be the leader of this team. If he can improve his decision making, passing, and getting to the line a little more he will be an all star. He’s entering his prime and should be less timid and take over and dominate. He definitely can do this.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GuardianAngel25]

Good post. I agree the main way this team will win games is going to be our defense that puts us in position for easy points. Ball takes our defense to another level giving us the best defensive back court duo in the NBA. Stopping the point of attack is what makes defenses great and nobody will do that better then us. Then you throw in 2 potentially elite defensive wings in Ingram/Zion and you have maybe the best defensive team in the NBA. Ball is being very under rated offensively and is someone who can be a very good 3pt shooter. Ball is going to completely change the way this team operates offensively giving Gentry almost a prototype PG for his system. Lonzo is a guard version of Ben Simmons but actually has a decent shot from 3pt. Nothing about his on court play scares me. The off court issues worry me a little but now that he’s in Nola and not LA I think it will be close to a non issue..

[tyler]

Ingram is trash at defense.... Plus I think the clippers will be better at defense than us...

[Pelicanidae]

Ingram is trash at defense.... Plus I think the clippers will be better at defense than us...

The Clippers have the potential to be the best defensive team in the NBA, no doubt. Them being better than us is no problem. We could easily be top 5 though, and I'll take that on a team with so much youth and so many rookies.

[Eman5805]

Ingram is trash at defense.... Plus I think the clippers will be better at defense than us...

Yeah. No he’s not. At all. Not elite. But trash means you haven’t seen him play

[Pelicanidae]

I agree with a lot of what you've written. I think there's very little doubt that when our offense works best, it will be as a result of good defense. While I'm perfectly happy with the amount of shooting the team has, at least for now, we aren't a team with snipers at every position and that means that our best offense will come in transition. Luckily, that's what Gentry wants from us anyway, so I don't see any issue with that. Defense creates fastbreak opportunities, of course, and it also mitigates the damage an opposing team can do to you with their superior shooting, so there's no doubt there will be focus on that.

Defense really should be our calling card. Fastbreak offense and pace jumps off the page more to a casual fan, and that will definitely be important to us, but think about it this way: we have the ability to field entire lineups, one through 5, with our shortest player being Jrue Holiday. Honestly, a lineup like Lonzo, Holiday, Ingram, Zion, Favors (likely starting lineup) would have problems creating offense in the half court, there's no doubt, because there is definitely a lack of real shooting there, but the defense would be absolutely crushing. The only team that has the potential to put out a better defensive lineup is the Clippers, if they were to roll out something around Beverley/Kawhi/George and fill in the other slots depending on matchups. We should be aiming to lead the league in steals and deflections, or come close to it. Hopefully Bzdelik takes the job he was offered, because his preferred defensive system is to switch everything, and we have a team almost designed to match that. Lonzo can guard 1 through 3, Jrue can guard 1 through 4, Ingram can guard 1 through 3 (although he needs to improve his off-ball defense a LOT), Zion can guard 1 through 5, and Favors can guard 3-5. That's incredibly defensive versatility for just one lineup, and I haven't even got to guys like Hart, NAW, and Hayes, who all provide switchability on D as well.

I do have some minor disagreements, but they really are minor. For example, you have Jrue listed as getting to the free throw line a lot. Of course that may happen, but Jrue is 29 and his career high in free throws per game is 4, coming last year. He's always been disrespected by the refs, and as a young team I can't see the referees being significantly more generous with the whistle for him this year than last. I also think Zion needs to be listed a free throw getter as well. He's just such a physical mismatch problem that there will be times he gets calls that are kind of sketchy: think prime Shaq. Just difficult to officiate with any degree of certainty, leading to probably more whistles than he might deserve. I think we got a look at that in his Summer League appearance: he got 6 FTAs in 9 minutes of play. Do I expect that to translate directly to the league? No, of course not, but I could easily see him putting up 6 or 7 FTAs per game which would put him in the top 15 in the league.

Overall, I'm entering this season with a lot of optimism. Obviously things could change, things could go wrong, and there could always be injuries (fingers crossed that that's no real issue for us this year) but just based on the team on paper and what I know of their abilities, I think we really could be a playoff team. There's an extent to which that depends on other teams as well, so it's not guaranteed, but I think it's a real possibility for us to be in that 7th or 8th seed spot by the end of the season, which would be something very few people expect from us the year after losing AD.

[Pelicanidae]

Yeah. No he’s not. At all. Not elite. But trash means you haven’t seen him play

You're right. He needs to improve his off-ball D a lot, and his lack of strength means that even with his height and length, he can't really guard 4s or 5s like he should be able to, but he's a capable on ball defender across three positions. That's not trash. There's a lot of improvement he needs to make, undoubtedly, but he's not Steph Curry on defense or anything.

[PELICANSFAN]

Ingram is trash at defense.... Plus I think the clippers will be better at defense than us...

The Clippers are probably better at defense than any other team in the NBA. As far as Ingram, are you just pulling that out of the air or have you ever watched him play? He is far from trash on defense. He is a pretty good defender.

[HartOfaPelican]

Ingram is trash at defense.... Plus I think the clippers will be better at defense than us...

Clearly, you have not seen him play! He’s actually an above average defender. Kuz makes was the one that was trash on the Lakers.

[Saints#34]

This is going to be a fun team to watch if nothing else. Fast, young, lots of energy.
The Pels to me have been the most fun to watch when Jrue was at his best pestering people and poking balls loose like in the playoffs against Portland. Now we have essentially a whole team of that. I’m excited.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bustah]

Yeah. No he’s not. At all. Not elite. But trash means you haven’t seen him play

Just another fan valuing a bunch of nuffies opinions

[tyler]

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/r...RPM/position/5


He has potential but to say he is poor (or trash) defender is very debatable

[tyler]

But hey I don't know anything lol

[PELICANSFAN]

But hey I don't know anything lol

So, your whole argument is a statistical chart you found on the internet? Notice where Kawhi is listed? Do you honestly believe there are 44 SFs that are better defenders than him (and Lebron is top 10)?

[tyler]

What I'm saying is he has potential but as of right now he's not a good defender... I remember when ppl was saying tyreke was a good defender but he never was I'm just trying to be realistic... Im not staying we won't be a great defensive teams but looking further into Ingram and looking at his defensive stats he wasn't all that but like I said I don't know anything..

[6warddude]

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/r...RPM/position/5


He has potential but to say he is poor (or trash) defender is very debatable

stats tells half truths...you have to use the eye test also smh........kawhi and barnes are the best SF on the list and look were they are ranked....

[HornetGuru]

Ingram is trash at defense.... Plus I think the clippers will be better at defense than us...

Ingram is a very good defender you’re nuts

[tyler]

Ingram is a very good defender you’re nuts

Hey I'm glad you think that

[tyler]

So what I'm saying is I'm willing to stand here corrected...just show me facts that say otherwise.

[tyler]

Maybe I shouldn't say trash but is it safe to say below average

[Sleeper]

So what I'm saying is I'm willing to stand here corrected...just show me facts that say otherwise.

In one of these threads there are stats that show Ingram played great defense on opposing star players. Usually from the point guard and wing position. So he can play great defense when challenged. I think consistency is the only issue but when he is asked to guard some of the best players, he rises to the occasion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pelicanidae]

A huge part of Ingram's defensive woes (which are real) is who he's asked to guard, his focus, and his slim build. It basically comes down to this: if he's guarding someone who is 6'9 or under, and he's locked in, and they aren't super physical, he's great. That's why he's played good defense on a bunch of star players in the NBA: because a lot of stars fit those criteria.

For example, when asked to guard CJ McCollum, he held him to only 7 points over 32 possessions, which is pretty damn good. Equally, he held Paul George to only 12.5% from the floor over 31 possessions as primary defender, which is again, very very good. He did a number on Khris Middleton, holding him to 6 points across 27 possessions, shooting barely 40% from the floor. He held Doncic to 25% from the floor across 21 possessions as primary defender.

That's all pretty good.

The problem with Ingram is that he loses focus a lot, and if someone is a bully who is willing to put their body into him, he struggles a lot. That's why someone like Garrett Temple, who is FAR from a star player, can shoot 72% from the floor when guarded by Ingram, why Jimmy Butler literally shot 100% when guarded by Ingram, and why Jayson Tatum shot 75% against Ingram.

Simply put, he needs to be CONSISTENTLY focused, and as we all know, he desperately needs to put on 10, 15, 20lbs of muscle as soon as possible. But he has real ability on that end of the floor when he's given sensible matchups and puts his all into it. Will he ever be a DPOY candidate? No. Will he ever make an all-defensive team? Who knows, but probably not. Does he have the makings of a perfectly capable defender? Yes.

[pelicanchamp]

If Ingram adds more strength and about 10lbs muscle and plays with more confidence he could be an asset to this team. I’m skeptical of Ingram atm because of his stance stats tell a very discouraging story. He has to improve a lot and be a two way player. Either that or he has to score a ton and get to the line very often. He has some of the characteristics that a star player might have. Freaky body type, very difficult to guard, high volume high percentage scorer, etc. he’s very quick and can explode on opponents.

To be a major player or borderline star he has to improve his footwork, his off the ball defense and offense, his defense overall, his rebounding, his ability to get to the FT line plus his 3 point shot,

Players can improve leaps and bounds. It’s been done and I haven’t given up on Ingram. He’s a good facilitator and he is a very capable scorer. He scores on very elite defenders...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pelicanchamp]

If Ingram adds more strength and about 10lbs muscle and plays with more confidence he could be an asset to this team. I’m skeptical of Ingram atm because of his advance stats tell a very discouraging story. He has to improve a lot and be a two way player. Either that or he has to score a ton and get to the line very often. He has some of the characteristics that a star player might have. Freaky body type, very difficult to guard, high volume high percentage scorer, etc. he’s very quick and can explode on opponents.

To be a major player or borderline star he has to improve his footwork, his off the ball defense and offense, his defense overall, his rebounding, his ability to get to the FT line plus his 3 point shot,

Players can improve leaps and bounds. It’s been done and I haven’t given up on Ingram. He’s a good facilitator and he is a very capable scorer. He scores on very elite defenders...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[tyler]

In one of these threads there are stats that show Ingram played great defense on opposing star players. Usually from the point guard and wing position. So he can play great defense when challenged. I think consistency is the only issue but when he is asked to guard some of the best players, he rises to the occasion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

But that's the thing.... That could be said about a lot of players... That's where the potential comes from because he was able to do it in spurts... I would like to see it for the whole season not just a a few games... But hopefully with a team with Jrue lonzo Zion and favors they can either hide him or he becomes motivated