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I think there's something to be said for drafting the guy you believe in as a person as well. I don't know anything about Claxton as a person, really, but I know that Hayes had some contact with Griff before the draft itself, and if Griff talked to him and saw the value in him as an individual, then I think that kind of off-sets any debatable quibbles surrounding whether he or any other big was the guy. If that's true, there's no point in trading down for someone with a superficially similar game: you take the man you want.
I agree that Claxton did fairly well in his role in college even if it was a little unusual, but I do think Hayes has a not just a slightly higher, but a much higher ceiling.
Basketball.
So a couple things.
First, I think people are confused about Hayes and when he started playing basketball. He isn't new to basketball. He played all through high school and maybe middle school (I'm not sure about earlier than high school). He's new to his body because he started high school at 6ft tall. And ended it at 6'11. For example Diallo is a guy who started playing the game late. That's not Hayes. He knows basketball. He's just got to grow into his body.
Second, because of how fast he grew I don't think he will be getting 20-25 minutes a game his rookie season. This doesn't mean he's some bust, it means he is developing.
I know it's kind of a crazy comparison and I hate to even say it but Hayes has went down a similar path to AD, a guard who grew crazy fast while in high school. Now granted, AD was further along in knowing how to rebound and other big traits but their touch and ability with the ball in their hands is remarkably similar. Both are super athletic too and have skills that big men typically don't have.
He's a pick that has a huge upside because once his body develops and he learns to play the game like a big man he can be dominant. There just aren't many bigs that have his skill set or potential.
I agree with this, for the most part. I do think that we can give him 15 minutes a game though. If we survived running rookie Diallo for 10 minutes, who was worse than Hayes is at this point, we can survive running Hayes for 15 and I think it would help his development rather than hinder it.
Hayes' touch is extremely good, you're right about that. He needs that coaching and to work with the training staff to really learn to play like a big man, to screen well (although he already sets good brush screens and slides naturally into the roll, which is encouraging), to box out properly, and to play in good defensive position on the perimeter. But all that ability is there, just waiting to be brought out.
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Admittedly only having watched highlights of Hayes I too thought he had an AD vibe coming out. That doesn’t mean he will be AD. People forget that AD has essentially hit the ceiling of what people thought he could be coming out, in terms of ranges of projection. He was raw and developed well.
Hayes seems very similar. Tall lanky athletic guy who developed quickly from a guard’s body to a PF/C body. I think he has all the same upside. Whether he develops into “AD” is anyone’s guess but he has very similar tools.
Just imagine for a second that Zion and Hayes hit that potential. That would really be something.
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He is more raw than AD coming out, and that says something. Hayes will need A LOT of time. I personally cant see this year being nothing but a redshirt/g-league type year. Maybe some NBA minutes late in the year when playoffs are out of reach.
More raw on defense? Yes.
On offense? Not much more raw, to be honest. People forget that when AD came into the league, his offensive repertoire was extremely limited. He had putbacks, and a couple of other touches from within 10 feet. That's pretty much what he flashed in college.
Hayes in college was almost all putbacks and dunks, but also showed a lot of nice touch on layups and also showed a very nice touch on some jump hooks.
You can't tell me you haven't seen AD flailing around on offense for years. You can't. I simply refuse to believe it, Unless your definition of flailing is totally different than the actual dictionary definition.
A very large portion of AD's offensive game is awkward, crazy leaps and put backs where he ends up flailing his arms and falling in extremely awkward ways... There has literally been running jokes on this forum about AD has to come out of almost every game because of awkward falls he takes.
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