For the last several months, like most Pelicans fans, I've been down on a potential deal with LA. Ignoring the emotional and PR aspects of the deal, their young players have a lot of questions. Though Brandon Ingram has shown some real skills, he remains a giant question mark. The combination of his uneven track record to date with his potentially serious medical concerns make me worried that his next contract, even if he plays great this year, will be a risky match in restricted free agency. He can't be the major piece the Pels get back and needs to be lagniappe. The number 4 pick could be a good piece and is probably their best overall asset, but is probably only the 4th best overall asset potentially available to the Pels depending on how much you value Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Josh Hart and Kuzma are nice bench pieces on a contender who don't move the needle or provide real value for a team that shouldn't be thinking in the near term and would only be likely to bring in minor assets. Future picks, in the scenario that the Lakers bring in Davis and another star, aren't likely to be high value.
And then there's Lonzo. There has already been noise from the Ball camp about Lonzo not wanting to be in New Orleans and needing to be routed to a third team, this despite the fact that he has been a very limited NBA player to this point and not the type of star who typically gets to dictate his destination. After the soap opera that was the last season, it seems prudent to avoid players who are likely to cause drama or distraction, especially with the new sense of optimism surrounding the franchise. On the court, he has been among the worst scorers in the NBA who plays significant minutes. He is Rondo-bad or worse as a foul shooter, struggles to finish inside and is limited as a driver, has no floater, in-between, or midrange game to speak of, and while he isn't hopeless as a 3 point shooter, he has shot in the low 30%s on largely wide open shots and has unseemly mechanics. He is likely to get the non-shooter treatment and will allow teams to clog the lane against Zion and Jrue. When we drafted Zion, my immediate thought was that we should be looking to surround him with shooters and that Lonzo would be a terrible fit.
However, the more I've thought about it, the more I find pairing Lonzo with Zion to be intriguing and potentially devastating combination.
Zion's most unique and outstanding characteristic is his unprecedented explosiveness, size, and leaping ability, and body control in the open floor. While there are some concerns about his halfcourt offense, nearly everyone agrees he will be a monster in transition from the first game he plays. The key to making Zion the best version of himself early on, and maybe period, is making sure the Pels push the place in transition. In his two years in the league, few players has pushed transition as much as Lonzo. He is an outstanding rebounder at the guard position and is an incredibly skilled and aggressive outlet passer. He is also a really fast athlete for 6'6" who can push the pace and cause defenses to commit.
He is also an instinctive and skilled help defender (more on this later) who creates a lot of high impact, live-ball turnovers which turn defense into transition.
As a result, he's had one of the biggest impacts on how his team gets in transition. Per cleaningtheglass (paywall), when Lonzo was on the court, the Lakers were in transition a total of 21%, 99th percentile, and was 3.1% more likely to be in transition with Lonzo on the court than off, which was 95th percentile. He is really, really good getting the team into transition. He had this effect both before and after Lebron James came to town.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhjhdvTtJHY
While he does his best work in transition, Lonzo is also a genius-level passer in the halfcourt. What I like best about him there is that he is decisive. He anticipates cutters incredibly well and gets the ball to players doing downhill. If the ball is kicked out to him after a defense is scrambling from an offensive action, he will find the man who can capitalize. He makes the pocket pass on the short roll incredibly well. His size makes it easy to see over his defender and get the ball into the post on entry passes. He is also next-level lob-thrower, which is a skill that would let Zion get above the rim, not unlike what Blake Griffin had in LA or Vince Carter appreciated with the early 2000s NJ Nets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx4UGQw5hxo
On defense, he's already a really good player, with potential to be an All-NBA player. He has a great combination of size for a guard (6'6" with a 6'10" wingspan), moves well laterally on D, his frame is filling in. His hands and anticipation to get into passing lanes are really rare. He has shown potential to switch 1-4 and can pick the pockets of bigs. He gets a lot of steals (2% steal rate, 82nd percentile for guards), and while his block rate fell off from his rookie year (1.2% to 0.6%, 91st to 73rd percentile), he gives you a lot more help defense than most guards. His frame, tools, and effort level are reminiscient of Klay Thompson, but his hands and ability to create impact plays has the potential to be even better. A backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball would arguably be the most defensively versatile and impactful in the association.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYC476G1Px0
There are real potential drawbacks. If he can't shoot better from the line, he becomes a candidate to get hacked and to muck up games. Despite an analytics-oriented shot profile (almost all of his shots come from 3 or at the rim), he remains among the least efficient players in basketball. Spacing, already an issue, will be an even bigger issue if he can't become at least average 3 point shooter. The off-the-court circus with Lavar could distrupt the positive momentum of the franchise. David Griffin and Gentry would need to weigh this risk heavily and do their due diligence.
With that said, his skill set is rare. There are few better pure passers in the NBA. Paired with Zion, there is the start of a very high IQ team there with an identity on defense and destroying teams in transition. With Rondo, we saw the impact a brilliant passer can have on a team, and IMO Lonzo is a significantly better overall player right now than that version of Rondo, and is much less ball dominant. Out of the assets available (including Tatum/RJ/SGA/Ingram/Brown), it would not suprise me if Lonzo becomes the best overall player. He could help create scoring opportunities for Zion with his passing skill, and could operate as a secondary playmaker off of Jrue or Zion's drives, and could remove some of the onus of initiation from Jrue without the need to dominate the ball to score in a way like Tatum or RJ will. I think there is more potential for synergy here than immediately meets the eye, and in a package with Ingram, the 4th pick, and some other assets shouldn't be dismissed unless other offers are just overwhelming.
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