AD trade scenarios...

[NMThreeMVP]

Wow.

I think you guys are severely underrating Ayton. He was the first pick in a pretty good draft that featured Luka, Trae, Bagley and Jaren Jackson. He wasn't the first pick in the same way Griff's Cav's picked Bennett, he was the pick because several folks had him as the best prospect! NBADraft.net called him a generational talent at Center.

And as 7'1" 20 yr old, he finished his rookie season with a PER above 20 in spite of starting off pretty slow (as most rookies do). He was as good, IMO, as Karl-Anthony Towns was his rookie year. He wasn't as good as Embiid, but his rookie year was better than Boogie's. If Ayton was in this draft, he'd be in consideration with Morant and RJ as a top 3 pick.

Yall are also apparently a lot lower on everyone outside of the top 3 or 4. People are crazy if they think their won't be future playoff starters and stars after the 4th pick. The final 4 teams in this year's playoffs were filled with contributors who were drafted after all the elite players were supposedly gone. Dame, CJ, Collins, Klay, Giannis, Pascal, Brogdon, and Kawhi were all picked after the elite players were supposedly gone in their respective drafts.

Giff once said he would want a player with All NBA potential (that's clearly Ayton), a solid vet who can be a starter (that's Warren), and a good young prospect (pick #6).

If he can get better than that, build Griff a statue and put him on a Jazzfest poster!

[Tinman]

Anthony Bennett went first in a draft with Oladipo, Otto Porter, Cj McCollum & Giannis.
So, because a wonderful franchise like PHX picked him at 1, he's therefore GOOD? Huh ?

[Pelicanidae]

Wow.

I think you guys are severely underrating Ayton. He was the first pick in a pretty good draft that featured Luka, Trae, Bagley and Jaren Jackson. He wasn't the first pick in the same way Griff's Cav's picked Bennett, he was the pick because several folks had him as the best prospect! NBADraft.net called him a generational talent at Center.

And as 7'1" 20 yr old, he finished his rookie season with a PER above 20 in spite of starting off pretty slow (as most rookies do). He was as good, IMO, as good as Karl-Anthony Towns was his rookie year. He wasn't as good as Embiid, but his rookie year was better than Boogie's. If Ayton was in this draft, he'd be in consideration with Morant and RJ as a top 3 pick.

Yall are also apparently a lot lower on everyone outside of the top 3 or 4. People are crazy if they think their won't be future playoff starters and starts after the 4th pick. The final 4 teams in this year's playoffs were filled with contributors who were drafted after all the elite players were supposedly gone. Dame, CJ, Collins, Klay, Giannis, Pascal, Brogdon, and Kawhi were all picked after the elite players were supposedly gone in their respective drafts.

Giff once said he would want a player with All NBA potential (that's clearly Ayton), a solid vet who can be a starter (that's Warren), and a good young prospect (pick #6).

If he can get better than that, build Griff a statue and put him on a Jazzfest poster!

I think you're vastly overrating Ayton. The fact that he was picked 1st above Doncic, Trae, etc, doesn't really mean much because now that we've all seen them play in the NBA we know that that's not the order they actually should have gone in, if they were drafted in order of talent. I don't know how many people you'd find out there who would argue Ayton over Doncic, or Young after having watched them actually play NBA ball for a year.

I don't think anyone is saying that Ayton was garbage. He had a solid year. But you can't just point to his PER (which yeah, is pretty good) and leave out the fact that he was subpar defender, who finished the year with a negative offensive BPM, and who has absolutely zero range as scorer. Obviously he has time to improve, he's very young. Boogie had no range in his rookie year either. But like I said, the issues that Ayton has are largely issues that can't be taught. You either have defensive instincts, a nose for the ball, high level anticipation, etc, or you don't. He doesn't. He may develop them, but they can't be taught to him: it's a coinflip as to whether he figures it out for himself.

Yeah, this draft drops off hard after around 4. Nobody denies that there will be future starters after that point. I have a bunch of names who I think will be good NBA level players, including names that don't get dropped too often like Goga. But just like you'd be crazy to think there won't be ANY future starters after 4, you'd also be crazy to think that the #6 pick is as valuable as the #3 pick in this draft. There will be players who work out well after #4, no question. Zero doubt. But the further you drift from the top 3 in this draft, the lower the ceilings generally become and the riskier the upside is.

If Griff can get better than Ayton, Warren, and #6, then he deserves relatively little fanfare for it. All it means is that he's looked at the Celtics or Knicks offers.

Edit: I will note that I think it's a better deal than the LA deal, clearly, and I wouldn't be distraught if that trade got made. I'd be disappointed, but it wouldn't be an endless tragedy.

[NMThreeMVP]

What is clear is that evaluating Pelicans potential trade packages is clearly subjective and "beauty is in the eye of the beholder". Just about all the deals are solid.

Ayton, IMO, is significantly better than any player the Knicks could offer. So is Warren. You'd have to significantly like RJ more than someone from the group of White/Culvar/Reddish/Garland/Hunter to prefer the Knicks package.

All the future picks from teams like Celtics/Clippers/Knicks could easily be outside of the lottery or very late lottery.

And are we sure Tatum is destined for All NBA status any time soon after he regressed this year?


I could nitpick every deal or I could argue any of these deals is the best deal. I think ultimately Griff would have to try very hard to outsmart the field in order to mess this up.

[Pelicanidae]

What is clear is that evaluating Pelicans potential trade packages is clearly subjective and "beauty is in the eye of the beholder". Just about all the deals are solid.

Ayton, IMO, is significantly better than any player the Knicks could offer. So is Warren. You'd have to significantly like RJ more than someone from the group of White/Culvar/Reddish/Garland/Hunter to prefer the Knicks package.

All the future picks from teams like Celtics/Clippers/Knicks could easily be outside of the lottery or very late lottery.

And are we sure Tatum is destined for All NBA status any time soon after he regressed this year?


I could nitpick every deal or I could argue any of these deals is the best deal. I think ultimately Griff would have to try very hard to outsmart the field in order to mess this up.

The Lakers deal is not solid. It has one good pick and 0 attractive players in it.

RJ and Culver are about the same. Reddish isn't a top 20 pick imo. Garland is what people feared Trae Young would be. White is decent: still not a top 10 pick. Hunter is going to be a solid roleplayer but his ceiling is low.

Late lottery doesn't matter. The point isn't to get a star. The point is to secure a constant influx of new, young talent. It doesn't matter where exactly that pick falls if you have good scouts. The Spurs have made 20 years of success off the back of knowing how to draft well with the 29th pick every year, and somehow they keep it going. Kawhi Leonard and Giannis both went 15th. What matters is that you have the generational talents to start with, and you add to that. We have Zion secured already, and we can add a tier 2 star with a high pick this year, someone like RJ or Culver, or Morant if he does miraculously fall past Memphis. After that, it's obviously nice if you get extra stars, but they are not necessarily 100% required, especially not every year. And of course, the new lottery system means a 12th pick can become a much better pick pretty much by accident now. See: the Lakers.

Tatum is talented. The season was a very rough season for the entire Celtics squad, for well documented reasons. I'm not quite as high on Tatum as some (I've seen talk about him being a future MVP, which I am not sure of whatsoever) but I think he will be a very good player, and could easily turn into an all-NBA third team type player. My concern with him is not talent, but instead psychology.

I can see advantages in the Knicks deal, the Celtics deal, the Clippers deal, damn, even the Phoenix and Nets deals. The only deal I would be sick to my stomach with is the Lakers deal.

[NMThreeMVP]

Anthony Bennett went first in a draft with Oladipo, Otto Porter, Cj McCollum & Giannis.
So, because a wonderful franchise like PHX picked him at 1, he's therefore GOOD? Huh ?

Wasn't at all saying because he went #1 that he's good. Only pointing out that he was a legitimate #1 pick in a deep draft based on his potential and his talent. He wasn't an against the grain surprise pick like Bennett. Several folks had him as the #1 player in the draft.

And he actually had a great rookie year, in spite of playing his entire rookie year without a real point guard. He was overshadowed by Trae and Luka, but Ayton was very far from a disappointment as a rookie.

[Blattman]

I don't think that should be a concern. Getting top end talent should matter most. The key is to surround them with coaches and players that's more focused on developing the young guys. Most teams don't commit to the full rebuild.

Actually I think talent is not the only factor in the success of young players. You have to put them in a position to succeed by having enough time to give them the proper direction to improve. Rookies (same as in common professional world) take lot of time because you have to teach them all the little thing even things that seem obvious to most.

I'm not saying pels should not commit to the full rebuild, they definitely should, take the patient road, amass draft picks and sign veteran leadership for minimum salary (I would love to see Emeka back). If I was the GM I would try to have an open-hearted conversation with Jrue in order to announce him that the team won't be competitive for the next three to four years and if he's not willing to wait this long I will ask for his preferred trade destination to reward his loyalty.

And I just think that having 2 picks every year in the next 3 years give you the opportunity to build patiently while having enough time to give proper chance to your younger player to thrive.

[Silver Nail]

The more this is discussed the more I'm convinced the PELS should start the youth movement gradually. Try to make playoffs first yr post AD with options going forward

BOSTON OUT- to CLIPPERS picks nbr 14 this year, PLUS HARFORD, to PELS smart,brown and tatum picks nbr 20 this year and MEMPHIS first next year total salary 57 mil
BOSTON IN- from nola AD, HILL and MOORE total salary 48.5 mil
BOSTON STILL HAS THEIR OWN PICK AND 9 MIL SALARY RELIEF.


CLIPPERS OUT- to NOLA GALLINARI, L WILLIAMS total salary 30.6 mil
CLIPPERS IN picks nbr 14 from boston and 39 and 57 from nola PLUS HARFORD total salary 30.1 mil
CLIPPERS get 1/2 mil salary relief plus a first and 2 seconds this year


NOLA OUT- 48.5 MIL VALUE PLAYERS SHOWN
NOLA IN: Memphis's pick next yr, boston nbr 20 this yr, BOSTON PLAYERS and LA players shown VALUED AT 57.5 MIL

[rodney1]

I want JA !!!!

[Pelicanidae]

I want JA !!!!

You and the Memphis Grizzlies.

[Mount Zion]

I want JA !!!!

I want Barrett!!!! Odds are that neither of us gets what we want.

[Silver Nail]

You and the Memphis Grizzlies.

I'm not convinced as most, Might be smoke and mirrors

[Pelicanidae]

I'm not convinced as most, Might be smoke and mirrors

I saw someone say he's Jeff Teague but 10% better at everything.

I don't entirely agree with that, but it's not too far off. And Jeff Teague but 10% better at everything is a pretty good player.

[Silver Nail]

I saw someone say he's Jeff Teague but 10% better at everything.

I don't entirely agree with that, but it's not too far off. And Jeff Teague but 10% better at everything is a pretty good player.

Maybe so, but I think RJ is a better prospect and they have Conley for 2 more yrs

[Pelicanidae]

Maybe so, but I think RJ is a better prospect and they have Conley for 2 more yrs

Sure, and I don't think they're going to just throw Conley away, but at the same time I think that when there's a fairly promising young guard in a league which is so driven by guard play a lot of the time, they'd rather take their chances. Could obviously be wrong.

[Tinman]

Maybe so, but I think RJ is a better prospect and they have Conley for 2 more yrs

If you could get CP3, Jason Tatum, Memphis Pick, Clip & Sacto pick. Would you do it? CP3 would basically be our SUPERMAX guy for 3 yrs.

[Pelicanidae]

If you could get CP3, Jason Tatum, Memphis Pick, Clip & Sacto pick. Would you do it? CP3 would basically be our SUPERMAX guy for 3 yrs.

No, probably not.

[Tinman]

No, probably not.

I have to mentally think about it a bit more, but CP, Jrue, Tatum & Zion ! I'm leaning towards yes.

[Pelicanidae]

I have to mentally think about it a bit more, but CP, Jrue, Tatum & Zion ! I'm leaning towards yes.

On one hand, I totally get that CP3s absurd contract wouldn't be the end of the world because Zion would obviously be on a rookie contract and by the time his extension came up, CP3 would be off the books, and when Tatum's extension comes up, we'd have his bird rights.

On the other hand, the thought of paying 37 year old Chris Paul $45 million dollars makes me throw up a little in my mouth. So there's that.

[Tinman]

On one hand, I totally get that CP3s absurd contract wouldn't be the end of the world because Zion would obviously be on a rookie contract and by the time his extension came up, CP3 would be off the books, and when Tatum's extension comes up, we'd have his bird rights.

On the other hand, the thought of paying 37 year old Chris Paul $45 million dollars makes me throw up a little in my mouth. So there's that.

Swallow & see what happens. Then you'll have your answer.

[Pelicanidae]

Swallow & see what happens. Then you'll have your answer.

Isn't good.

[NMThreeMVP]

Phoenix
Jrue/Zion/Ayton/Warren/pick 6/

Boston
Jrue/Zion/Tatum/Brown/Smart/pick 14/pick 20/pick 22/2020 Mem Pick

Lakers
Jrue/Zion/Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/2020 pick

Clippers
Jrue/Zion/SGA/Gallinari/Shamet/2020 Phili Pick/2021 Miami Pick

Knicks
Jrue/Zion/DSJ/Knox/Robinson/pick #3/2021 DAL Pick/2023 DAL Pick

Just trying to think about which situation I'd rather be in come June 20...

I think Phoenix could have throw in their 2021 pick as well. That's the pick I'd ask for, not 2020. They could also add Bridges. If anyone or thing not named Booker is on the table, they've got assets.

I'd ask Boston to use their 3 picks this year to get higher in the draft. I want the assets, but I don't want a team with 4 rookies. Or maybe we use those picks to clean up our cap (Solo) or upgrade current players (Moore).

For the Lakers, you need a clean bill of health for Ingram for the deal to work. And you also need 100% buy in from Lonzo/LaVar or a trade in place for Lonzo that you like.

In the Clippers deal, you'd want Shamet and SGA, but is that you backcourt of the future? And if so, what does than mean for Jrue? You have to believe SGA is an All Star in the making, and I haven't seen that yet. Especially not at the PG position. Is he a much better prospect than Coby White in this draft?

I was pushing for a Knicks deal back before AD made his trade request. I loved the ability to acquire the Knick's odds to land Zion. Now that we have Zion, I'm less thrilled with the Knicks deal. I like their future picks, but any team can throw in future picks. Their own picks and the Mavs picks are impossible to project. I'd bet they end up out of the lottery. DSJ/Knox/Robinson could all turn into great players, but evaluating them on what they've been in the league and I'm underwhelmed. RJ Barrett at #3, isn't any more a sure thing than the players who might be available with Lakers or Suns pick. And RJ at #3 is the prize of this deal. I don't know... not as excited as I used to be.

IMO, if you can use the late Boston picks this year to get out of Solo and upgrade from Moore, and a prospect you really like is there at 14, the Celtics deal might be the best you're going to get it. Which is what everyone has been saying anyway!

I could see this deal getting done before the draft if one of these teams pushes all their chips in. Or I could see Griff telling each of these teams who the Pels would like in the draft, and seeing how things have fallen after the Celtics pick at 14 before making a deal.

[Pelicanidae]

The deal is definitely getting arranged before the draft. If the deal is not done before the draft, then it's not getting done this summer, and next season will begin with AD on the roster. There is no way Griffin allows the opportunity to control the use of picks to fall out of his grasp.

I think the fascination with getting off of Solo's deal needs to be cut off pretty much ASAP. If this was two years ago, I'd get it. This year Solo is a fairly large expiring: for a lot of teams, that is actually a valuable asset. If we have a chance to get off his deal through a trade then sure, but it should not include a pick from us at all. Or at least, nothing beyond a 2nd rounder. There is no need to package an asset for Solo to go. If we cannot make a deal for him without a pick being included, then we should just let him expire without trading him and take the cap space.

[da ThRONe]

Actually I think talent is not the only factor in the success of young players. You have to put them in a position to succeed by having enough time to give them the proper direction to improve. Rookies (same as in common professional world) take lot of time because you have to teach them all the little thing even things that seem obvious to most.

I'm not saying pels should not commit to the full rebuild, they definitely should, take the patient road, amass draft picks and sign veteran leadership for minimum salary (I would love to see Emeka back). If I was the GM I would try to have an open-hearted conversation with Jrue in order to announce him that the team won't be competitive for the next three to four years and if he's not willing to wait this long I will ask for his preferred trade destination to reward his loyalty.

And I just think that having 2 picks every year in the next 3 years give you the opportunity to build patiently while having enough time to give proper chance to your younger player to thrive.

I think this is true if you draft two PG's or two C's. But if you are drafting players with different skillsets this isn't an issue if done properly. When you clear cap space you can bring in veterans to help the young guys. Plus the coaching staff will focus less on gameplaning or systems and more on player development. I understand the potential issue having 3 or 4 rookies and a handful of 1 year or 2 year experience players can present. But IMO that's why a franchise has to fully commit to player development. That means hiring coaches that understand the jobs is to develop and bringing in vets that understand they're getting paid to help develop the youngs. Not sure outside of Hinkie's 76ers have we seen a franchise really get it right.

[NMThreeMVP]

The deal is definitely getting arranged before the draft. If the deal is not done before the draft, then it's not getting done this summer, and next season will begin with AD on the roster. There is no way Griffin allows the opportunity to control the use of picks to fall out of his grasp.

I think the fascination with getting off of Solo's deal needs to be cut off pretty much ASAP. If this was two years ago, I'd get it. This year Solo is a fairly large expiring: for a lot of teams, that is actually a valuable asset. If we have a chance to get off his deal through a trade then sure, but it should not include a pick from us at all. Or at least, nothing beyond a 2nd rounder. There is no need to package an asset for Solo to go. If we cannot make a deal for him without a pick being included, then we should just let him expire without trading him and take the cap space.

Not sure why people think the deal has to be done before the draft. Parameters of a deal outlined with several teams? Sure.

The 4 biggest deals in recent memory (off the top of my head) - Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard - I don't believe done until after the draft. The Pels might really like Reddish, Sekou, Bol, or Rui. Or just Guy XYZ. If that player falls to 14, that makes the Celtics offer more enticing right? Conversely, if none of the guys you're really targeting fall to 14, it makes the Celtics offer less enticing. Same thing with any trade that involves the Lakers pick, Suns pick, or Bulls pick (via Lonzo trade). If Culver falls to 6 of 7, and Pels have him rated as a top 3 player doesn't that make certain offers move valuable?

In theory, Griffin can control multiple picks in the draft just by telling other GMs the players he'd want in an AD trade, and telling other teams they're going to make their decision on an AD trade at the end of the night. The Lakers, Knicks and Celtics can't afford to not play along.

re: Solo
We can't know if their is any value in getting off of that deal or not, unless we know what else Griffin wants to do this Summer. And if we tell a team like Celtics we want Tatum/Brown/Smart/14 and Memphis pick, and we want to offload Solo, it would be Boston figuring out how to best do that, not us. It might cost them LAC or their own pick. How it gets done isn't really relevant to us. Maybe they give us the pick and say "you figure it out".

I'm happy to keep Solo. But I'd rather use a pick in the 20's to either get rid of him or turn his salary into a better player.