NBA Draft Judgements

[Pelicanidae]

It's now been a little over 10 days since the draft lottery happened. Everything is now totally settled: we know where we fall, we're had some time to get acclimated to that, and every other team is in a similar boat. So inevitably, we now turn towards who drafts who. Usually, that's a fairly complicated issue, but for us as Pelicans fans we've kind of had the responsibility taken out of our hands. Or rather, we've had that responsibility stolen, taken full-court, and 360 windmill dunked into the net for us: we're taking Zion.

But for other teams, there are still a lot of question marks. Who they take depends on a lot of things: there's no clear hierarchy for a lot of this draft. While it's not a super deep draft, I'm not quite as down on it as some. That is to say that I think there are legitimately good players to be had, or at least guys with good upside, even into the teens of this draft. So this is the question I'm asking: assuming no trades (imagine AD stays, for example), and every team is just picking for themselves, who do you think each team should pick? I want to be careful here to clarify: I'm not asking who they will pick. The question is, if you are the GM for the team and you are making the judgement, who do you personally take for that team, at that spot.

Obviously there's still plenty of time to change your mind. The answer you give could be totally different to the answer you'd have in a week. Maybe you're feeling like taking gambles today, so your list looks a little weird, or maybe you're playing it super safe and going with just the ESPN mock draft. It's up to you, and then we can discuss who you've put where and why. So, here's mine.

#1 - New Orleans Pelicans - Zion Williamson.
#2 - Memphis Grizzlies - Ja Morant
#3 - New York Knicks - Jarrett Culver
#4 - Los Angeles Lakers - Goga Bitadze
#5 - Cleveland Cavaliers - RJ Barrett
#6 - Phoenix Suns - Brandon Clarke
#7 - Chicago Bulls - Talen Horton-Tucker
#8 - Atlanta Hawks - Bol Bol
#9 - Washington Wizards - DeAndre Hunter
#10 - Atlanta Hawks - PJ Washington
#11 - Minnesota Timberwolves - Coby White
#12 - Charlotte Hornets - Grant Williams
#13 - Miami Heat - Darius Garland
#14 - Boston Celtics - Jaxson Hayes
#15 - Detroit Pistons - Keldon Johnson
#16 - Orlando Magic - Nickeil Alexander-Walker
#17 - Brooklyn Nets - Sekou Doumbouya
#18 - Indiana Pacers - Jontay Porter
#19 - San Antonio Spurs - Chuma Okeke
#20 - Boston Celtics - Shamorie Ponds
#21 - Oklahoma City Thunder - Cameron Reddish
#22 - Boston Celtics - Tyler Herro
#23 - Utah Jazz - Matisse Thybulle
#24 - Philadelphia 76ers - Romeo Langford
#25 - Portland Trailblazers - KZ Okpala

There's the top 25 picks. I think after that it's just taking fliers on people. Even some of the people on the dusty end of this list are kind of fliers. There are a couple of these that I'm already feeling a little shaky about, and some that I know are pretty controversial, but everyone share your ideas and talk about your views on other people's lists and stuff. Feel free to rip mine to pieces or ask anything, and everyone can do the same to your list.

Have fun

[Mount Zion]

Unlike the NFL, the NBA has a different schedule for free agency, trades, etc. So I usually don't do any type of mock draft for the NBA, because there are too many moving pieces. The fact that some teams will actually draft for another team rather than their own is enough to make the whole exercise moot and takes the fun out of it for me. Just for an example, Phoenix obviously wants a point guard, so it's easy enough to slide one into their slot. But a draft day trade with the Lakers for Ball and a subsequent trade by the Lakers for AD, means the Pelicans draft in slots #4 and #6 instead of the Lakers and Suns, possibly for players that wouldn't be a fit for either team going into the draft. Too much spitting into the wind for me.

But have fun.

[Pelicanidae]

Unlike the NFL, the NBA has a different schedule for free agency, trades, etc. So I usually don't do any type of mock draft for the NBA, because there are too many moving pieces. The fact that some teams will actually draft for another team rather than their own is enough to make the whole exercise moot and takes the fun out of it for me. Just for an example, Phoenix obviously wants a point guard, so it's easy enough to slide one into their slot. But a draft day trade with the Lakers for Ball and a subsequent trade by the Lakers for AD, means the Pelicans draft in slots #4 and #6 instead of the Lakers and Suns, possibly for players that wouldn't be a fit for either team going into the draft. Too much spitting into the wind for me.

But have fun.

Yeah I totally understand that. That's why I mentioned that I'm just working with the assumption that everyone is drafting for themselves. IN reality, that's not realistic at all and doesn't reflect what will actually happen, but I figure it's a kind of fun exercise if you're interested.

TBH I should have called this thread ''NBA Mock Drafts'' but I had just woken up when I made it and my brain was fuzzy

[Mount Zion]

Speculation on what should go down in the draft could be fun, at least through the first 10 picks or so. Of course, you would almost have to guess which free agents will commit to land at certain spots so you don't have the Lakers landing Kyrie, but drafting Garland.

[Pelicanidae]

Speculation on what should go down in the draft could be fun, at least through the first 10 picks or so. Of course, you would almost have to guess which free agents will commit to land at certain spots so you don't have the Lakers landing Kyrie, but drafting Garland.

Yep, there's definitely a degree of guesswork to it. For example, I have the Lakers taking Goga Bitadze with the 4th overall pick. Now, I know that if they get AD, then suddenly they don't need a big man as their main focus and then Bitadze becomes an awful fit for them: but at the same time, if they end up winning the AD sweepstakes then they don't get the pick at all, it would be our pick and we have our own needs.

And of course, there's very little chance of the Lakers picking Bitadze anyway even if they do keep the pick because he's not a super big name hype guy and that seems to be their drafting MO: just pick the guy with the most hype attached to his name.

[msusousaphone]

This board don't do hypotheticals. Lol. It's like you say "I'm bored, we have over five weeks, let's play checkers" and then everyone just comes in and tells you how Chutes and Ladders or Chess is better.

I'd play, but I'll be totally honest. I don't watch any college basketball or really NBA teams outside of the Pels. So I'll just endorse your list.

I agree with your concerns on Reddish but I can see someone thinking they can change him way sooner.

It's crazy how mercurial picks 3 through....like....15 will be. I can see quite a few people having Garland go in the top 5.

[Pelicanidae]

This board don't do hypotheticals. Lol. It's like you say "I'm bored, we have over five weeks, let's play checkers" and then everyone just comes in and tells you how Chutes and Ladders or Chess is better.

I'd play, but I'll be totally honest. I don't watch any college basketball or really NBA teams outside of the Pels. So I'll just endorse your list.

I agree with your concerns on Reddish but I can see someone thinking they can change him way sooner.

It's crazy how mercurial picks 3 through....like....15 will be. I can see quite a few people having Garland go in the top 5.

Mine is filled with hot takes ���� I don't see most people on here taking Bitadze at all, anywhere. I get the feeling I've watched more of him than many, because he wasn't a college player.

I agree that I could see Garland going a lot higher. I feel like he's what Trae Young doubters feared Trae would be.

[Silver Nail]

Here are my projections and reasons. I am only doing top 14 (lottery) picks


1 NOLA ZION WILLIAMSON BEST PROSPECT since LBJ including AD
2 MEMPHIS R J BARRETT WOULD HAVE BEEN best prospect had he not been on same team as ZION
plus MEM willl be in lottery next yr where 50 percent of top 12 will be either true pg or combo guards
also they must keep Conley for next 2 yrs and have only one sg under contract
3 KNICKS JA MORANT NEXT BEST of consenus big 3, some think # 1, hoping to use in AD trade
4 LAKERS DARIUS GARLAND PLAN to trade LONZO to ????
5 CLEVELAND DeANDRE HUNTER Need a SF even though this guy may be better PF
6 PHOENIX JAXSON HAYS NEED another big
7 CHICAGO JARRETT CULVER Not a NEED but too good to pass on here
8 ATLANTA RUI HACHIMURA So many needs
9 WASHINGTON COBY WHITE No WALL plus hoping to trade him for rebuild
10 ATLANTA GOGA BITADZE Again, so many needs
11 MINNESOTA NICKEIL ALEXANDER-WALKER This sg is better than most think
12 CHARLOTTE CAMERON REDDISH Too good to pass on here
13 MIAMI TY JEROME Next best PG
14 BOSTON NASSIR LITTLE SF need in anticipation of sending both BROWN and TATUM in AD deal

[Pelicanidae]

Would like someone to explain to me the Reddish hype, if possible. I don't see it. He's long and tall, and when he's in an empty gym with nobody around him, he shoots pretty well from deep. But he is absolutely one of the worst finishers at the rim I've ever seen. Has no idea what to do in the paint. Zero body control. No finesse there at all. When contested, he changes his 3 point release in comparison to when its open, which is a recipe for inconsistent shooting at best, imo.

And while he's got a great build for defense and should be able to develop into a decent defender if someone can drill some discipline into him, he doesn't have any of that yet, and he's not a naturally instinctive defensive player.

[Silver Nail]

Would like someone to explain to me the Reddish hype, if possible. I don't see it. He's long and tall, and when he's in an empty gym with nobody around him, he shoots pretty well from deep. But he is absolutely one of the worst finishers at the rim I've ever seen. Has no idea what to do in the paint. Zero body control. No finesse there at all. When contested, he changes his 3 point release in comparison to when its open, which is a recipe for inconsistent shooting at best, imo.

And while he's got a great build for defense and should be able to develop into a decent defender if someone can drill some discipline into him, he doesn't have any of that yet, and he's not a naturally instinctive defensive player.

That's why I think he falls a bit, out of my top 10

[Pelicanidae]

That's why I think he falls a bit, out of my top 10

I feel like he could be the draft pick that gets a GM fired.

Like, someone who isn't very good (looking at you, Suns) is going to take him way higher than he should go, and he'll suck. And they'll get fired for it when the guy immediately after them is waaaaay better.

[Tinman]

Speculation on what should go down in the draft could be fun, at least through the first 10 picks or so. Of course, you would almost have to guess which free agents will commit to land at certain spots so you don't have the Lakers landing Kyrie, but drafting Garland.

Zion's going #1 !

[Nola3]

Would like someone to explain to me the Reddish hype, if possible. I don't see it. He's long and tall, and when he's in an empty gym with nobody around him, he shoots pretty well from deep. But he is absolutely one of the worst finishers at the rim I've ever seen. Has no idea what to do in the paint. Zero body control. No finesse there at all. When contested, he changes his 3 point release in comparison to when its open, which is a recipe for inconsistent shooting at best, imo.

And while he's got a great build for defense and should be able to develop into a decent defender if someone can drill some discipline into him, he doesn't have any of that yet, and he's not a naturally instinctive defensive player.

^That's the reason for the hype. A lot of people only see upside in the draft and think all the flaws will iron out. Someone will take him in the top 10 and it very well might get them fired as you've said. I like his jumpshot form, but there are major concerns all around.

Also, what do you see in Bitadze that would make him a top 4 pick? That's the one that really shocked me haha.

[Nola3]

Zion's going #1 !

Bold take

[Tinman]

Bold take

I am a risk taker !

[Silver Nail]

I am a risk taker !

Yes you are LOL

[Pelicanidae]

^That's the reason for the hype. A lot of people only see upside in the draft and think all the flaws will iron out. Someone will take him in the top 10 and it very well might get them fired as you've said. I like his jumpshot form, but there are major concerns all around.

Also, what do you see in Bitadze that would make him a top 4 pick? That's the one that really shocked me haha.

It depends on fit, tbh, but for me the two of the most vital things that you can take from a prospect are IQ and strength. Obviously strength can be built, but if you look at the top, say, 20 players in the league (depending on who you judge as top 20, I guess) one thing that unites them almost without exception is that they have functional strength. Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, Embiid, AD, PG, Westbrook, Beal, Jrue, etc etc, they are all strong guys for their height. The only obvious exceptions that jump to mind are Curry (who is an exceptional cardio athlete but isn't particularly strong) and KD, who has such a freakish build combined with shooting ability that it kind of just cancels out.

Goga has both of those things. He's a very high IQ player who plays within himself, moves well on the court, has good hands, rim runs hard, is a skilled rim protector with good defensive instincts and anticipation. He's a big body with some length without being plodding, and he's physically strong enough that he'd be probably pretty capable even as a rookie. I wouldn't take him top 5 on just any team, there is a fit issue with it, but when I think of people who should be playing alongside Lebron, I'm thinking high IQ roleplayers who can defend, make the right passes, cover for his lapses on the perimeter as his age creeps up, etc etc. Especially when you look at the roster holes that the Lakers have: they desperately need a good big.

The only real problem for Goga is that he can't shoot. His shot doesn't look broken from deep or anything, but he doesn't shoot much and he's pretty unsuccessful when he does, but he has very nice touch around the rim so I think there's potential there.

It's a bit of a hot take, and I admit that maybe it's a bit optimistic, but I really do think he could end up being a steal in this draft for the right team.

[Pelicanidae]

I am a risk taker !

Zion at number one... I dunno about that... might be risky. Should probably take DeAndre Hunter, he's ol' reliable.

[Mount Zion]

Zion at number one... I dunno about that... might be risky. Should probably take DeAndre Hunter, he's ol' reliable.

Gotta go with Bitadze. He can’t shoot, but you have to keep him from the Lakers.

[Pelicanidae]

Gotta go with Bitadze. He can’t shoot, but you have to keep him from the Lakers.

I feel kinda bad for everyone in this draft other than us, tbh.

Zion is pretty much as close to a lock for superstardom as any player has been, at least since Lebron. There is absolutely nobody else in this draft even close to that level.

Zion has every trait that I look for in a rookie, and then some extras that I just appreciate on top of that. Nobody else ticks all the boxes. There are some good prospects: damn, even some very good prospects (Ja, for example) but the difference between Zion and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and #20.

Edit: Zion's ceiling: Charles Barkley on offense, Draymond Green on defense, simultaneously.

[Eman5805]

Culver has some bunnies.

Clearly a trick of the camera angle, but he's getting good height all the same.

[WildlifeAirGrp]

I don't follow college basketball enough or the NBA for that matter to get past maybe the fourth or fifth pick, but Zion with Ja and something else would just be a spectacular turn of events for the Pels. But what do I know?

[HornetGuru]

Is Zion really the best prospect since LeBron? I’d at least argue LeBron, Durant then Zion.

[PolishFan]

Is Zion really the best prospect since LeBron? I’d at least argue LeBron, Durant then Zion.

Greg Oden?

[Pelicanidae]

Is Zion really the best prospect since LeBron? I’d at least argue LeBron, Durant then Zion.

Durant in college (stats given per 40): 28.8/12.4/1.5 with 2.1 steals and 2.1 blocks. 47.3% from the floor, 40% from 3. 58.7% true shooting. .280 WS/40.

Zion in college (stats per 40 also): 30.1/11.8/2.7 with 2.8 steals and 2.4 blocks. 68% from the floor, 33.4% from 3. 70.2% true shooting. .335 WS/40.

It's also worth noting that we now record some stats that we didn't back when KD played in college. Zion's net rating is +45.7. That's absurd. His BPM is +20, which is absurd. His PER is 40.8, which is absurd.

Part of the reason for that crazy net rating and BPM is that Zion is one of the best defensive prospects in a LONG time, which KD wasn't. If you read back scouting reports for KD, they say things like ''should focus more on his defensive fundamentals, getting low in his defensive stance, especially on the perimeter'', and ''all the potential to be a lock down defender, but doesn't put the effort in on that side of the ball'', as well as ''Defensively, Durant has a ways to go in terms of his awareness and fundamentals''.

This simply isn't true about Zion. While it's not talked about as much as his ridiculous athleticism, Zion's defense is already elite. It'll take him a dozen games or so to get used to the NBA, but by January or February I could easily see him being a top 20 defender in the league in his rookie year. He's got that awareness that Durant lacked, his defensive fundamentals are incredibly sound and he's athletic enough to make up for the rare lapses. The effort is unquestionable.

Also remember that Zion was not the leading shot-taker on his team. He barely shot 13 times a game. KD shot 19 times a game, and was the unquestioned go-to guy on that Longhorns team. While usage rate isn't available for KD's college season, I'd be willing to bet his usage rate was 32%+, whereas Zion's sits at a relatively low 28.6%.

Zion is rightfully more hyped than Durant was. Whether he'll ever develop the way Durant did into a consensus top 3 guy is a different question, but coming out of college Zion is definitely more exciting.