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Draft Day goes something like this...
Pelicans take Zion
Grizzlies take Ja
Knicks take RJ
We have a trade...!!
Pels get Ja, Knox, Trier, Ntilikina, Valanciunas, 2019 Knicks 2nd Round, 2021 Mavs pick, 2022 Knicks pick, 2023 Mavs pick
Grizzlies get RJ, Mitchell Robinson, DSJ, Lance Thomas, E'Twaun Moore, Pels 2019 2nd Round, 2020 Knicks pick
Knicks get Anthony Davis
We roll into free agency with...
Ja/Frank/Ntilikina
Jrue/Trier
Knox/Kenrich/Solo
Zion/Wood
Valanciunas/Okafor/Diallo
Everyone seems to want Ja. So we get Ja. We give up a solid 2nd round pick (#39), and the Knicks give up a 2020 1st round pick in order to move up from #3 to #2. They're also getting a swing at DSJ and Mitchell Robinson, who would be a solid paring with Jackson in their front court. For purposes of my (wishful) thinking, Valanciunas opts in and the Grizz include him in the deal while we offload Lance/E'Twuan on them. That part of the deal might be very unlikely, but that's why I thew in our high 2nd round pick.
Valanciunas would lead a nice center group along with Okafor and Wood to put with Zion. Knox is a complete project. If he has to go to Memphis in order to make this deal, I'd do it.
I'm less high on Ja than most, but these two dudes would be the foundation of the Pelicans future and having 3 future first round picks would give us a lot of flexibility to build around them. Unless some depth and shooting come via free agency, I think we suck next year with this trade - which means another lottery pick and maybe even an amicable trade of Jrue that brings on even more assets.
(This concludes my TED talk)
thats alot of math right there...alot of things have to happen right
A lot of this sounds cool, except for a few key things.
1) Why on earth would Memphis give up Ja? They want Ja. They like Ja. Every sign we have says they are targetting Ja, and that they're ready to move on from Conley. Why would they suddenly pivot and decide that Barrett is their guy? Especially when they already have the #2, so if they wanted to take Barrett after all they could just do that without giving up any other assets.
2) Why would we want Valanciunas? He's 27 years old so it's pretty fair to assume that he is what he is at this point, and that's a decent player but nothing special. He has no real reliable range on offense, is not a great defender, and isn't a fantastic rebounder either (though he isn't awful on the boards). He's just a solid guy, but in the deal you're envisioning he's the clear second best player, so that brings us to:
3) The picks aren't that great. If the laundry list of players isn't fantastic, which it isn't because we're for some reason getting Knox, Trier, and Ntilikina, none of whom were particularly impressive for the Knicks this year, then the picks need to be good. You've got us losing out on the 3rd pick for the second in Ja, which is fine, but then you've got us getting no Knicks FRPs until 2022? So we get nothing for next year at all? That's pretty absurd when we could just wait until the draft and get the Knicks' 2020 pick as well, which isn't likely to be great but the point isn't to have great picks every year, it's to have a constant stream of resources and assets to make moves with and to keep young names coming in.
4) Why would the Knicks do this? They gain AD, sure, but they could do that in a potential trade just with us giving up something like #3, the 2020 FRP, the Mavs picks, Robinson and Trier. In your deal, they're giving up all of that, but also giving up DSJ, Knox, Thomas, and Ntilikina, despite gaining nothing extra. They're shipping out literally everything in this scenario for no extra return.
5) Robinson is the best prospect the Knicks have to offer outside of their pick. Why would we want to lose out on him? He's shown more promise than Knox, Ntilikina, and Trier combined, and he's a much better get than Valanciunas because of age, contract, and fit (Valanciunas is a more traditional big in terms of offense, whereas Robinson fits today's kind of Clint Capela roll-and-put-back-guy mold), and would be easy to acquire through just the Knicks trade.
This isn't the worst trade proposal I've seen, but I'm not a fan of it at all. A lot to be nervous about, a few weird problems, and I don't see the advantage that it has over just taking the Knicks trade on its own. You'd have to think Ja was miles better than Barrett for this to make sense.
It means that rather than play D, he'd foul to bail himself out.
I'm joking there, but only a little bit. Randle had a few games where he clearly put the effort in, and when he does that he can be an okay-ish defender, but he just doesn't care. Doesn't close out with any kind of urgency, rotates super late, often just loses his man from a lack of focus, doesn't really box out that well on boards, is just generally a step or two slow on everything. It's actually painful to watch.
Jah sucked on defense most of the time too, but he was clearly trying and just didn't have the foot-speed, or the instinct. Randle has the foot speed. He's strong enough to play D on anyone in the post. He just isn't interested. Doesn't get box score stats for closing out, so it's not worth it to him.
I'm not a huge fan of it either. Started with the premise of... HOW DO WE GET JA?
It makes sense for the Grizz to zero in on the player they perceive to be the higher value (Ja), even if they like someone else (RJ) just as much. Grizzlies should be looking to entice someone to move up while they still get the guy they really want. If you're going to get Memphis to move from 2 to 3 though, you have to entice them. The #3 pick, the Knicks 2020 pick, DSJ, and Robinson are what you offer. For the Grizz they get 3 assets and a guy they like in RJ. All they had to do was convince the world they'd fallen in love with Ja. Seems logical to me.
Pels really only do this if they really think Ja is a can't miss prospect at PG. If they love Ja, you do this deal and are thrilled to have the foundation of your franchise set between Zion and Ja for the next 8 years at least.
The Knicks give up all of that because their dream is to cash out for AD/KD and either Kyrie or Kemba. To make that happen, they can't keep all those players anyway and to move ahead of the other teams in the AD sweepstakes they HAVE TO go all in because their assets are the least established.
Sure, but the Grizz were trying to ship Conley back in February before the deadline. All indications we have say that they're ready to move on from him, and that was before they had any real reason to think they'd have the #2 pick and any chance at Ja. It seems to me that their interest in Ja is pretty likely because they actually want Ja, rather than for some 3-D Chess tactics.
I guess if you're just absolutely desperate for Ja and he's the light of your life, then sure, maybe you sacrifice some assets you could be getting back for him. Personally, I'm not as hot on Ja as some people seem to be. I think he's good, and should definitely be a top three pick in this draft (personally I'd have him third), but the way I've seen some people talk about him is... frankly slightly disturbing.
The Knicks do have to go 'all in', but there are different types of all in, as weird as that sounds. In a deal that has them trading with only us, there's a limit to how many young unproven prospects we want: makes no sense to be trying to develop 8 guys at once or something. So they don't have to give everything in order for them to be all in with us, because we only want a certain number of things, and all in is whatever it takes to satisfy those requirements. If you add in a third team, then the Knicks suddenly have to satiate two different teams with their assets which means giving up a wider range of assets than they might like, when the extra team doesn't actually give them anything extra back. Seems like a waste, from the NY perspective.
Edit: I'd also add that while I totally get why you started with the premise of ''how do I get Ja'', I think it's an awful premise to start from. Ja is not going to be the second coming, and the almost rampant praying a lot of people have (not necessarily on this board, but check out twitter... wow) for him to end up in New Orleans is very strange.
I think that plan kinda wipes away alot of advantages we have at the moment for Ja. I mean i get it but I think that short term play is kinda put us where we got to. The long play i think is better by spreading out the opportunities you have with multiple picks and players who each can become a diamond in the rough.
G I like this. I’d adjust a little bit. I’d trade number 7, laker 2020 first, and Kuzma to wizards for Beal (could throw some seconds if needed). We should have the cap space to eat all of Beals contract if Hill and Moore are move out. At 4 I take Culver. This is my 2019-2020 line up
Jrue/Frank/Elfrid
Beal/Culver
Otto/Kenrich
Zion
Wood/Okafor
Grab a wing and PF/C with 2 second rounders.
I wonder if Randle will actually opt out. Half the time he's talked about as a great big and the other half he's a trash player. I wonder if he actually wants to enter free agency this year or if he wants one more and enter next when there will be far fewer high end players.
I'm about 90% sure he opts out. He's being paid so very, very little here that even if he wants to stay he's more likely to opt out and accept a contract larger than the option to stay here. That said, I think he's gone.
Said it a bunch and my tune has not changed: elite interior offensive scorer, mediocre rebounder, mediocre-to-poor passer, absolute hot trash garbage fire defense.
yeah I just had a quick look through 2019 free agents list on hoopshype and as I scrolled it felt like every big man I could think of was showing up, but as we seem to have learnt these NBA players live in their own inflated bubbles of ego so I could see him very much opting out. Dallas seems to be the hometown option, with comments here and there he's very keen to play there. At the same time he has done the right thing here too, and kept his outward officially reported comments positive and engaged for playing on with the Pels. The apparent question marks on coaching staffs thoughts on him and his intelligence do make you wonder though whether he is really the type of character guy they are looking for in a long term build.
When do you think the trade will go down ? Supposedly they met with AD by now and know if they sold him their pitch, albeit unlikely. Is it done before the draft on June 20 , during the draft, or after July 1st when Boston can officially be involved ? We aren't trading with any of the remaining playoff teams it sounds like so I don't think there are any hold backs outside of Okafor who can be traded after May 26 from one website I hit.
Any trade is likely to be agreed upon around draft day. Boston can agree to a trade then, they just can't execute it until the official start of Free Agency, which is now mid afternoon on June 30th. I have very little doubt that by the draft, the franchise will know exactly what it's doing. It makes sense, even if they're taking the Knicks trade or the Lakers trade, to wait until the draft because if allows that team to make the pick for the Pels, then trade the player rather than the pick which allows them to include the 2020 FRP in the deal, which they can't do before the draft because trading consecutiveFRPs is a no no.
So it looks like it boils down to either the Knicks, Lakers, & Celtics. Each trade has it pros and cons but I have to say I'm glad that we will be getting a young dynamic wing in the trade (Barrett, Ingram, Tatum). Feels like its been years since the team had one.
If we assume AD is to be traded, is a trade more likely to be agreed to before the draft, during the draft, or after July 1st?
Any trade involving AD and draft picks in this draft would be agreed upon before or during the draft.
It wouldn't make sense for us to trade for draft picks AFTER they are taken and we can't go tell every team we are involved in talks with who to draft incase we trade with them. If AD isn't traded by the draft then we can assume either he is going to start the season on the team or another team with a player heavy deal is going to be agreed upon.
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