Elfrid has had, shall we say, an up and down season for us. He has only played in 33 games for us this season, and a significant chunk of those games have come after the AD trade request, where the focus of the team hasn't exactly been on winning.
So let's look at what he's been doing when he's gotten the chance. For the season, Elfrid is averaging 10.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game in about 29 minutes. He is shooting 44% from the floor, and 35.7% from three on 2.2 attempts per game, which isn't too bad. He's doing this with a 14.3 PER, which isn't too bad although a little subpar. What is really bad is his -6 net rating, and his negative BPM. Nevertheless, he has a + VORP, and his on/off rating IS positive, although only just at +0.2.
Recently, he's seen more minutes and more responsibility, particularly as Jrue hasn't been playing due to that injury that's totally real. How has he done during that time period?
Over the last 10 games, he has averaged 12.4 points, 9.9 assists, and 9.1 rebounds per game, shooting 44% from the floor and 37.9% from three.
Over the last 5 (his triple double games) he has averaged 15.6 points, 12.8 assists, and 12 rebounds per game, although his percentages are down in that 5 game stretch (which makes sense, it pretty much coincides with Jrue disappearing from the court), shooting 36.3% from three, and only 41.9% from the floor.
How good is his defense? Well, not great, but better than you might think. His -6 Net Rating is slightly misleading, because he's usually on the floor with bad lineups: his most frequent on-court partner is Julius Randle, who he's spent 610 minutes on court with, and Randle's defensive troubles are well known at this point, and their negatives amplify each other. But when we actually look at his individual one-on-one defensive stats, we see that he's actually been pretty good. Again: not great but better than you might think.
This season, players shoot 0.3% better than their average against Payton. He actually holds players under their average everywhere within 15 feet, but once we start moving out to the perimeter, they improve, and by the time we're behind the arc, they shoot 1.5% better than their averages against Payton. This has improved recently as well: over the last 5 games, opponents only shot 0.1% better against Payton, and he's actually been holding players below their averages on the perimeter too: 3.9% worse from behind the arc. Over the last 10 games, his defense has been a net neutral: opponent's have shot precisely their averages.
So, what do we have in Payton? He's a really good passer, a great rebounding guard, who has improved his three point shot to the point where it's solid, though not spectacular. He's still young, and while he's not been a good defender, he's also not been as bad as some might think, especially as he's got more minutes this season. I think he's worth taking a look, and I would be pretty okay with giving him any deal up to around $6.5m per. So something like 2yrs/$12m or 3yrs/$18m, something like that.
What do you think?
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Originally Posted by UNO Gracias
