Pelicans underwhelmed by Lakers' initial offers for Anthony Davis

[NMThreeMVP]

That's just ridiculous, frankly.

''Once more information is known, it's known to everyone'' No it isn't. Like Mythrol just said, why would Boston call up New York and say ''oh yeah, by the way, we aren't offering Tatum anymore so feel free to drop your offer.'' We have no reason to think that will happen, and even if it does, the Pels front office will know before we do, and they'll make the trade required before the other team finds out. Your assumption also only works in a binary. ''If NYK don't get the first pick, they're less of a threat. If they're less of a threat, BOS/LAL don't have to all in.''

Uh... yes they do. Because they're still competing against each other. As long as there's more than one team in the running, there's someone you have to outbid.

''Use the maximum possibility to elicit the best deal now'' except what if the best deal is Boston? Who cannot make a deal now.

''Just acknowledge that waiting is extremely risky!'' Where have I said there isn't any risk to waiting? In the post you are responding to, I literally say '' Sure, things could go wrong, they always could.'' and ''I'm not entirely confident in my perspective. I want to wait until we have more options''. That is blatantly acknowledging that there is risk. I'm not going to start ever post with a bolded, underlined, italicised banner that reads ''THERE IS ALWAYS RISK INVOLVED WITH ANY DECISION, PLEASE CONSIDER THIS BEFORE READING MY POST.''

Everyone will know where the NYK pick is, and that will dictate what BOS has to offer.

[Pelicanidae]

Everyone will know the value of the NYK's pick and whether Zion is in play. The dominoes fall from there. The chances of that working out in our favor are 14%. If Zion's not on the table, you're not getting that all in Celtics offer everyone is dreaming about.

Everyone will know where the NYK pick is, and that will dictate what BOS has to offer.

You would be absolutely right, IF the Knicks pick was the only asset they have.

Luckily they also have the Dallas picks, their future picks, DSJ, Knox, Ntilikina, and Robinson. So they can still offer up a pretty rich and varied offer that has to be beat. If Boston thinks they can beat something like, ''The 3rd pick + Knox + DSJ + Robinson + Ntilikina + 2021 Knicks pick + Dallas picks'' with a wimped out offer, then they're being stupid and we take the NYC offer.

[NMThreeMVP]

You would be absolutely right, IF the Knicks pick was the only asset they have.

Luckily they also have the Dallas picks, their future picks, DSJ, Knox, Ntilikina, and Robinson. So they can still offer up a pretty rich and varied offer that has to be beat. If Boston thinks they can beat something like, ''The 3rd pick + Knox + DSJ + Robinson + Ntilikina + 2021 Knicks pick + Dallas picks'' with a wimped out offer, then they're being stupid and we take the NYC offer.

I feel like we're making progress, lol.

How much better is the best Boston offer, than that offer from the Knicks? Considering Brown will get paid big in a year, Tatum will get paid in 2 years, Smart is already making $13m, and none of those players have career PERs over 16.

Is it 5% better? 20% better? Is it really better? Fair question, I think, but how much better is the best possible Celtics offer than the best possible Knicks offer?

[Mythrol]

Everyone will know the value of the NYK's pick and whether Zion is in play. The dominoes fall from there. The chances of that working out in our favor are 14%. If Zion's not on the table, you're not getting that all in Celtics offer everyone is dreaming about.

You are assuming that we don't like the Knicks offer better if it's the 2nd or 3rd. I think the Knicks and Celtics offers are pretty darn close if Knicks get top 3. With Knicks maybe the better offer if they get No. 1. You think the Celtics are going to try and play hardball over Tatum if the Knicks are offering Morant instead of Zion? I just don't see that.

Stop being silly. We always know where these players want to go before they can technically go. As soon as the Celtics season is over, Kyrie can let the world know what his intentions are. IF Kyrie is clear that he's going to NYK, the Celtics may still trade for AD, but the offer isn't going to be the offer we can hold over the other team's head's right now as the best offer out there. It will be Brown, Smart, and maybe 1 or 2 1st. Tatum and Kyrie actually have the same agent and are cool, so if they can hold on to Tatum, the Celtics will.

Kyrie literally said yesterday he will answer questions on the July 1st. Ainge came out yesterday and said he's not concerned with any reports about Kyrie or AD not committing long term. He still wants to make a trade for AD.

Of course if the Celtics could hold onto Tatum they would. If they could get AD for Hayward straight up they'd love it. Neither thing is happening. If they want Aad they are giving up Tatum.

[Mythrol]

I feel like we're making progress, lol.

How much better is the best Boston offer, than that offer from the Knicks? Considering Brown will get paid big in a year, Tatum will get paid in 2 years, Smart is already making $13m, and none of those players have career PERs over 16.

Is it 5% better? 20% better? Is it really better? Fair question, I think, but how much better is the best possible Celtics offer than the best possible Knicks offer?

If you like the Knicks package better that's fine. The issue people are having is you're trying to paint unrealistic doomsday scenarios to strengthen your belief that trading with the Knicks is the best path forward.

I'm personally ok with either package so if we make a deal with the Knicks that's fine. But let's not play games with imaginary doomsday stuff.

[DarkHornet]

If you like the Knicks package better that's fine. The issue people are having is you're trying to paint unrealistic doomsday scenarios to strengthen your belief that trading with the Knicks is the best path forward.

I'm personally ok with either package so if we make a deal with the Knicks that's fine. But let's not play games with imaginary doomsday stuff.

Agreed. The Knicks deal may be a very good deal. I don't feel compelled to take that deal now. Especially given that adding AD to their roster before the end of the year may lower their draft position. I believe the AD deal will be finalized in principle (both teams agreeing to it) between the lottery and the draft.

[Pelicanidae]

If you like the Knicks package better that's fine. The issue people are having is you're trying to paint unrealistic doomsday scenarios to strengthen your belief that trading with the Knicks is the best path forward.

I'm personally ok with either package so if we make a deal with the Knicks that's fine. But let's not play games with imaginary doomsday stuff.

Yep, that's my point too, and also my response to the question about whether the Boston deal is better than the Knicks pick or not. I like both deals, and I think that which one you prefer is really more a matter of which strategy you prefer for the team in the long term rather than one being just flat out better than the other. I just want to keep the door open so that we can make an informed decision from the largest number of options, rather than going Apocalypse Now and burying any chances we have at a good offer just so that we can get an offer done quick.

[NMThreeMVP]

If you like the Knicks package better that's fine. The issue people are having is you're trying to paint unrealistic doomsday scenarios to strengthen your belief that trading with the Knicks is the best path forward.

I'm personally ok with either package so if we make a deal with the Knicks that's fine. But let's not play games with imaginary doomsday stuff.

I'm ok if you call the scenarios unlikely... but I don't think, given the history of the NBA, and the fact that we're dealing with Klutch, Ainge, a James Dolan team, Kyrie, and LBJ ...that any of the scenarios I've pointed out are anything that any fan of the NBA would fall out of their chair in shock if they happened.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where Ainge isn't willing to put all his assets in a trade, you haven't been paying attention.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where someone in Kyrie's camp leaks that he wants to play for Knicks with KD, you haven't been paying attention.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where Rich Paul and AD's dad are more explicit that he will only sign an extension in NY or LA, you haven't been paying attention.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where the LAL only offer lowball trades bc they think they can wait a year for free agency, you haven't been paying attention.

The Knick's pick dropping out of the top 4 is just math.

AD getting hurt while NBAPA and this team insist on him playing is the only real "doomsday scenario" that's out there. The other stuff is all within the realms of normal for the NBA and the people involved in this transaction.

[PELICANSFAN]

What if BOS says no to Tatum? And only 2 1st.

Are you still getting the best offers possible out NYK/LAL when the BOS offer becomes a real offer instead of the hypothetical offer that's out their now?
If the NYK don't get #1, or if their pick falls to 5th, why would BOS still offer you their premier package when the offer from their chief competitor is worse?
Don't the Lakers also lose incentive to go all in with multiple first and all their young guys, as soon as BOS says no Tatum? or NYK don't have Zion to offer?

There is certainly a high level of risk with both Boston and NY. It is unfortunate that Boston is hamstrung by this obscure rule as the team that suffers the most by it is the small market team that cannot make a fair deal until it is resolved. The sad reality is that actual trades never seem to turn out as good as we imagine them. Many thought we would get Gordon, Bledsoe and the unprotected Wolves pick (which we all thought would be top 5). Instead, we got Gordon, scraps and the 10th pick, which turned out to have no value.

[Mythrol]

I'm ok if you call the scenarios unlikely... but I don't think, given the history of the NBA, and the fact that we're dealing with Klutch, Ainge, a James Dolan team, Kyrie, and LBJ ...that any of the scenarios I've pointed out are anything that any fan of the NBA would fall out of their chair in shock if they happened.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where Ainge isn't willing to put all his assets in a trade, you haven't been paying attention.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where someone in Kyrie's camp leaks that he wants to play for Knicks with KD, you haven't been paying attention.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where Rich Paul and AD's dad are more explicit that he will only sign an extension in NY or LA, you haven't been paying attention.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where the LAL only offer lowball trades bc they think they can wait a year for free agency, you haven't been paying attention.

The Knick's pick dropping out of the top 4 is just math.

AD getting hurt while NBAPA and this team insist on him playing is the only real "doomsday scenario" that's out there. The other stuff is all within the realms of normal for the NBA and the people involved in this transaction.

First, my point is specifically about you saying Ainge is gonna withhold Tatum. That ain't happening. I've never said nor do I believe we will get EVERYTHING from the Celtics.

Second, you are ignoring that AD's camp leaked yesterday that while NY wasn't the top destination they were OK with being moved to New York. That literally puts more pressure on the Celtics to get AD in a trade because if not New York will likely get him and maybe Kyrie too.

The problem is you aren't saying one of those things happens, you're trying to paint a scenario where most or all of those things happen as the reason we need to make the Knicks trade now before the deadline.

Let's try it this way: What % chance do you think we hit this worst case scenario that you've painted? I'd say less than 1%.

Is that enough of a risk to take an inferior package now when waiting Nets us better later?

[Pelicanidae]

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where Ainge isn't willing to put all his assets in a trade, you haven't been paying attention.

Nobody is telling you that. What we're saying is that if Ainge does that, there is no way for the Knicks to know that unless Ainge calls them and specifically informs them that he's reducing his offer. He won't do that, so if he refuses to put the assets in for the trade, we just take the Knicks offer.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where someone in Kyrie's camp leaks that he wants to play for Knicks with KD, you haven't been paying attention.

Paying attention to what? Don't get me wrong, I've seen the media pushing the KD-to-Knicks angle, but what reason do we actually have to suggest that that's going to happen? We can make the Boston trade before Kyrie can even make a choice, do you really think that if AD is sat right there in Boston he's still going to move based on the slim possibility that KD might abandon his Guaranteed Championship Factory in Golden State for the Knicks?

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where Rich Paul and AD's dad are more explicit that he will only sign an extension in NY or LA, you haven't been paying attention.

Rich Paul has already said that anywhere taking AD is just a rental, and Ainge has already said that he does not care. Boston and New York both have good reason to believe that whoever gets AD automatically gets Kyrie as well. If you think, based on the past history stars promising that they're going to LA and that anywhere else is a rental (see Paul George) will dissuade teams from trading for automatic championship contention, then you're the one who hasn't paid any attention.

If you're telling me you can't imagine a scenario where the LAL only offer lowball trades bc they think they can wait a year for free agency, you haven't been paying attention.

If LA only lowball trades, then they don't get AD. It makes no difference to the Knicks and Boston offers because they still have to outbid each other, and for reasons already mentioned in this exact post, they aren't exactly going to call each other and inform the other team's GM of their offers so that the bidding can be fair. That's not how this works.

The Knick's pick dropping out of the top 4 is just math.

Which is why it's great that it's not their only asset, as we've been over like 5 times now. It has a much higher chance of being top 3 anyway, and any of the top three picks this year are highly desirable, so if it's not Zion, there's a high chance it's Ja Morant or RJ Barrett, who are both superstar potential players anyway.

Listen, nobody is saying that you have zero points, and nobody is saying that waiting is a guarantee of greatness. I've already said multiple times that thnigs could go wrong. No plan survives first contact with the enemy and all that. But you can't construct your life around the assumption that everything will always go wrong in every scenario so you better just settle. That's a horrible way to do things.

[NMThreeMVP]

Yep, that's my point too, and also my response to the question about whether the Boston deal is better than the Knicks pick or not. I like both deals, and I think that which one you prefer is really more a matter of which strategy you prefer for the team in the long term rather than one being just flat out better than the other. I just want to keep the door open so that we can make an informed decision from the largest number of options, rather than going Apocalypse Now and burying any chances we have at a good offer just so that we can get an offer done quick.

IF you like the NYK deal now, equally or in the same realm of what the Celtics can offer, my only point is that it wouldn't be the wisest thing to assume the risk that those deals diminish, for the marginal gain you might get from your preferred deal with Celtics. If you think the BOS deal is significantly better than what the threat of the BOS deal gets you from the Knicks at the deadline, I understand why your calculation changes and the risk becomes worth it.

[6warddude]

its reports saying the lakers are not going to try and out bid boston for AD in the summer and try to focus on signing other free agents...and going with the rumors that boston will not add tatum to a trade so the lakers dont need to over bid for davis.........and that davis will lean on his father advice on where to play....

these are LA news outlets....so i guess AD will lean on his father lebron lol....

they are trying hard to get a deal done b4 the 7th lol...

[Mythrol]

IF you like the NYK deal now, equally or in the same realm of what the Celtics can offer, my only point is that it wouldn't be the wisest thing to assume the risk that those deals diminish, for the marginal gain you might get from your preferred deal with Celtics. If you think the BOS deal is significantly better than what the threat of the BOS deal gets you from the Knicks at the deadline, I understand why your calculation changes and the risk becomes worth it.

The Knicks cannot include DSJ in a trade right now which is why I do not think their offer is worth accepting right now.

[bahmamamba]

it's just crazy like L.A really think they could get ad for garbage? like didn't at some point think hmm we better go out and try to get better players that will entice the pelicans? I mean they can't really be that cocky after losing out on khwai and pg can they?

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[flyPelican]

There is certainly a high level of risk with both Boston and NY. It is unfortunate that Boston is hamstrung by this obscure rule as the team that suffers the most by it is the small market team that cannot make a fair deal until it is resolved. The sad reality is that actual trades never seem to turn out as good as we imagine them. Many thought we would get Gordon, Bledsoe and the unprotected Wolves pick (which we all thought would be top 5). Instead, we got Gordon, scraps and the 10th pick, which turned out to have no value.

If Tatum gets injured do we still swing a trade with Boston? If Kyrie leaves and goes to New York do they became front runners outside of LA? Too many variables could change and player value can shoot up after playoff runs. Spot on about the Gordon trade that why Im weary of a Danny Ainge deal because he's gonna get the upperhand on Dell. Probably throw in Hayward instead of Brown or Smart and play us on draft picks.

[Mythrol]

its reports saying the lakers are not going to try and out bid boston for AD in the summer and try to focus on signing other free agents...and going with the rumors that boston will not add tatum to a trade so the lakers dont need to over bid for davis.........and that davis will lean on his father advice on where to play....

these are LA news outlets....so i guess AD will lean on his father lebron lol....

they are trying hard to get a deal done b4 the 7th lol...

What rumor that Boston won't add Tatum? Ainge was literally interview like 2 days ago that everyone outside of Kyrie was available and he had already brought Tatum and Brown in and explained to them what was going on.

[Pelicanidae]

it's just crazy like L.A really think they could get ad for garbage? like didn't at some point think hmm we better go out and try to get better players that will entice the pelicans? I mean they can't really be that cocky after losing out on khwai and pg can they?

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The LA Lakers are like a billionaire. It doesn't matter how stupid they are, how many times they get publically owned, how many mistakes they make, how clueless they make themselves look, they will always love themselves because of their own ego and self-righteousness.

Not to get needlessly political, but look at Howard Schultz right now. Everytime he opens his mouth he gets absolutely obliterated by everyone, and he's only polling on 4% from every party including independents, but he will not take the hint that nobody likes him and nobody is interested.

LA are like that.

[6warddude]

What rumor that Boston won't add Tatum? Ainge was literally interview like 2 days ago that everyone outside of Kyrie was available and he had already brought Tatum and Brown in and explained to them what was going on.

LA news outlets...i guess trying to make us take early deal...

[bahmamamba]

The LA Lakers are like a billionaire. It doesn't matter how stupid they are, how many times they get publically owned, how many mistakes they make, how clueless they make themselves look, they will always love themselves because of their own ego and self-righteousness.

Not to get needlessly political, but look at Howard Schultz right now. Everytime he opens his mouth he gets absolutely obliterated by everyone, and he's only polling on 4% from every party including independents, but he will not take the hint that nobody likes him and nobody is interested.

LA are like that.

Yeah I get that I do but it's still like really? I mean on they could of done what knicks did and now depending on where their pick lands they could have a better offer or be side by side with the celtics offer its jist funny and mind blowing how they put their selves (lakers) on this pedestal and they haven't been relevant since kobes last game lol oh well I love the laker tears lol

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[new city champ]

It seems to me the main “X” factors are:

-Do you want to wait to see what NY’s pick is or do you want assume that risk for sake o getting a deal done now understanding that if it does become Zion Williams they might pull it from their offer;

-How much do you want to depend on Kyrie Irving’s word? He said he would resign with Boston but has been crab walking on that commitment lately. He may decide to bolt based on non-public information (like Durant going to Knicks) before any deal for Davis gets done and inform Ainge of that fact. You have to carefully asses what Kyrie leaving might do to Boston and NY offers;

-what would be the effect of a Boston run to the finals, especially if Tatum & Brown play well getting you there? Might Ainge reconsider his offer and say “all I promised was to discuss anyone on our roster, not offer them”;

-how much can an active jaw boning campaign over many months from Klutch and maybe eventually Davis himself depress his trade value to teams other than Lakers? I think we may be underestimating how much Klutch and an increasingly desperate LeBron could poison the trade market. Christ, they already got the Dad involved and it’s only February.

Any of these variables—and a host of others—could create a tumble down effect on Davis’s trade value. I’m not saying to take the Lakers crappy offer, but if a NY offer is even 80% of what you might get from Boston, I’d opt to pull the trigger now. I’ve just seen too many “can’t miss!” deals fall apart because they sat on the shelf too long and crumbled.

[Mythrol]

LA news outlets...i guess trying to make us take early deal...

Makes sense. Lol

[NMThreeMVP]

Let's try it this way: What % chance do you think we hit this worst case scenario that you've painted? I'd say less than 1%.

Is that enough of a risk to take an inferior package now when waiting Nets us better later?

I like the way you frame that.

I would say using the threat of the possible BOS offer as leverage to extract the best offer possible out of the Knicks, is a zero risk proposition for me if I take the Knicks offer. As Pelicanidae has said, this years pick isn't their only asset, it could still be top 3. I like all 3 guys at the top of the draft, so the risk in accepting the Knicks offer is zero, IMO. It gives me a ton of draft picks to trade or use, and guys on longer rookie deals than the Celtics or Lakers players to develop before I have to commit to paying them big money.

So let's start with the math on the worst case scenario...

There's a 60% chance the Knick's pick is 4th or worse. As I've said before that's the 1st domino. So there's a 60% chance the Knick's offer, which everyone will know, diminishes. I think that causes Ainge to play hardball with Tatum.

Bill Simmons, who has interviewed KD 3 times on his podcast, and interviewed KD's manager as well, put's KD to the Knicks at "greater than 50%". I think that increases from zero to non zero, the chance of Kyrie (he listed NYK as his preferred trade destination from Cleveland, has already backtracked on a public guarantee to resign with BOS) going to NYK.

I'd put the chances that Rich Paul and AD's dad, and possibly AD, continue to grow more explicit in where AD will and won't resign at 100%.

I think the chances we know before July 1 where Kyrie wants to play are at least 50%. The Celtics are not favored currently to win the Eastern conference, so I can't imagine we go a month with no indication from Kyrie or his camp about his future. I base this on how things played out in Cleveland, the fact that any AD trade that waits til the offseason is likely announced before the draft in June, and teams will certainly push for some kind of public statement from Kyrie before committing to ship all their assets for AD.

So, I can't tell you exactly what the % chance is for the worst case scenario, but I can tell you it's significantly more than 1%.

[6warddude]

Makes sense. Lol

for real lol...like if you read some of the LA news about the trade its wild....they are mad that we dont want to play ball lol...

im still mad about the rondo and beasley offer...i mean people really look at us as a joke organization of the NBA...

[Mythrol]

I like the way you frame that.

I would say using the threat of the possible BOS offer as leverage to extract the best offer possible out of the Knicks, is a zero risk proposition for me if I take the Knicks offer. As Pelicanidae has said, this years pick isn't their only asset, it could still be top 3. I like all 3 guys at the top of the draft, so the risk in accepting the Knicks offer is zero, IMO. It gives me a ton of draft picks to trade or use, and guys on longer rookie deals than the Celtics or Lakers players to develop before I have to commit to paying them big money.

So let's start with the math on the worst case scenario...

There's a 60% chance the Knick's pick is 4th or worse. As I've said before that's the 1st domino. So there's a 60% chance the Knick's offer, which everyone will know, diminishes. I think that causes Ainge to play hardball with Tatum.

Bill Simmons, who has interviewed KD 3 times on his podcast, and interviewed KD's manager as well, put's KD to the Knicks at "greater than 50%". I think that increases from zero to non zero, the chance of Kyrie (he listed NYK as his preferred trade destination from Cleveland, has already backtracked on a public guarantee to resign with BOS) going to NYK.

I'd put the chances that Rich Paul and AD's dad, and possibly AD, continue to grow more explicit in where AD will and won't resign at 100%.

I think the chances we know before July 1 where Kyrie wants to play are at least 50%. The Celtics are not favored currently to win the Eastern conference, so I can't imagine we go a month with no indication from Kyrie or his camp about his future. I base this on how things played out in Cleveland, the fact that any AD trade that waits til the offseason is likely announced before the draft in June, and teams will certainly push for some kind of public statement from Kyrie before committing to ship all their assets for AD.

So, I can't tell you exactly what the % chance is for the worst case scenario, but I can tell you it's significantly more than 1%.

I feel like you're mixing positives with negatives. For example if KD or Kyrie say they are 100% going to New York that makes them more desperate to get AD which increases our offer.

If KD says it, I THINK Boston and The Knicks both go as hard as possible to get AD.

If you agree that AD probably gets traded in June then I think knowing where Kyrie goes after that is irrelevant. You're also assuming Kyrie hasn't already given Boston a commitment behind closed doors.

As far as AD and his camp goes, I don't think anyone involved cares. They all knows its just posturing. If AD knows he'd have to be a rental and waste a year before joining Lebron does his stance stay the same? No I doubt it.

The Knicks pick we won't know exact odds until the end of the season so that 60% could change and if we trade AD to them now we Guarantee! the pick will have worse odds. Combine this with not being able to get DSJ and I think there's plenty of risk of taking a worse deal now.

Would I still be willing to do it? That depends. *IF* Boston swore they'd give me EVERYTHING in the summer, I think Tatum, Brown, Smart, plus 4 1st round picks is probably better and I'd take that.

Let's take the middle ground and say the Knicks pick hits No. 3 if we trade AD there at the deadline. Is Knox, Frank, the Knicks pick, both Dallas picks, and another Knicks pick better than what Boston guarantees us? I'd probably say no.

Would I be upset? No.

But the risk to me is worth it because I don't believe the worst case scenario has very high odds of happening at all. Your scenario involves assuming the worst case scenario breaks against us in multiple instances to even run the Possibility of us getting a less offer. I don't think you can run a NBA team by being afraid.