January 14th - New Orleans Pelicans VS Los Angeles Clippers - 20-23
Coming off a stupid, stupid loss to Minnesota on the road in which we could have won despite everything going badly if only Gentry had played Payton in the final five minutes, we return home to play the 24-18 LA Clippers. The Clippers have gone 9-11 since December 1st, including losing their last two straight. They have yet to beat a team with a .500+ record in 2019, same as us. Again, we are healthy heading into tonight's game, and Niko is no longer on a minutes restriction according to various tweets I've seen. Take that with a grain of salt. Let's look at LAC:
Offensive rating: 7th
Defensive rating: 23rd
Rebounds per game: 19th
Assists per game: 24th
Steals per game: 30th
Blocks per game: 21st
2pt percentage: 20th
3pt percentage: 4th
With those offensive and defensive ratings, LAC are actually a good comparison for ourselves as a team. They're slightly worse on offense, but slightly better on defense, yet their record is better than ours by a fair margin. Why is that? Clutch play and ability to finish, basically. LAC are what we would be right now if we didn't fall apart in crunch time. If you take some of our crunch time losses, we have lost 6 games by a combined 20 points. We are, in essence, 1 quarter away from being 26-17. That's how much better we would be if we could finish even some of those close losses. Anyway, let's look at LAC:
Tobias Harris is still their main man. He's shooting 50/43/87 from the field, which is dead-eye. Averagine 21/8 per game on those efficiencies is pretty impressive too: he spaces the floor brilliantly for them and can create his own shot without assistance. That's lucky, because he's not great at passing out of trouble, averaging 2.2 assists per game despite being a primary ball handler at times (2nd highest usage rating out of players who actually get minutes for LAC, after Lou Will). He's also not a particularly talented defender, with a defensive rating of 111 and a net rating of only 4. For comparison, AD is our lead scorer and his net rating is 20, with a defensive rating of 105. Obviously ORTG and DRTG doesn't tell you anything on its own, but his subpar defensive win shares, combined with the fact that opponents shoot exactly their average percentages against him shows he can be exploited to some degree.
Next up is Lou Will and Danilo Gallinari. I list them together because they both fulfill the same role: they can both create their own shot, both are shooting well from three, both are averaging around 18ppg, and both play between 25 and 30 minutes a game. Neither of them are skilled playmakers or passers, but both can go blackout from range and drop you in a hole. They need to have whoever is defending them focused, and the coaching staff really need to make sure guys know their assignments around the arc. It's that simple, there's nothing miraculous here.
Finally is Montrezl Harrell. Not a versatile player, he's an energy big and is averaging 4 offensive boards per game. Whether it's AD or Randle, he needs to be exploited because while he's a solid player, he's not on their levels and if he ends up defending Niko in space, then that would be a great recipe for Niko to have a comeback game after the poor performance in Minnesota.
That's about it. We need to win, we're at home so we probably will win. It's that simple. Let's go and #DoItBig.
 |
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by P_B_&_G
