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Don't do projections. Except how literally everywhere does projections and they're usually at least in the right ballpark.
Anyway, our next ten games includes matchups with: Wolves, Jazz, Blazers, Nuggets twice, Sixers, and Kings. All of those games are games we have a reasonable to strong chance of winning. So I'm not sure where you come from with 4 wins.
Basketball.
Like someone pointed out, the Thunder is struggling, so it's not that much of a significant win. We beat a Leanord-less Spurs, and beat the Suns. That's not impressive.
Our next 10 games are against the Warriors, Timberwolves, Rockets, Nuggets, Trailblazers, Bucks, Wizards. Go ahead and tell me if you think we can beat those teams.
I love your enthusiasm and confidence, I really do. I need more of that.
However, we're not going to beat the Wolves, Blazers, Nuggets (the same team that put up 140+ on us), Warriors again, Rockets, Bucks, and Nuggets again, and Wizards. I see us beating Sixers and Kings and maybe Jazz. Those are our next 12 games.
What makes me think that we can't beat any of them? Because we haven't done it yet. We've lost to the Warriors twice. I don't see us beating the Rockets or Bucks or Wizards. We've lost to the Nuggets. We've lost to the Blazers.
Last edited by WhyHornetsWhy; 11-25-2017 at 10:22 PM.
So we aren't going to beat the Wolves (who we already almost beat despite them getting away with three flagrants on Cousins, and who we have dominated for years), we won't beat the Blazers (who's record is no better than any of the other teams we've played and who are streaky and prone to collapse outside of Lillard and McCollum), the Nuggets (who just lose Millsap and have looked awful without him), the Jazz (who have no Rubio or Gobert), the Sixers, or the King's?
All of those are entirely within reason. That would be 7 out of our next 10 games which are entirely reasonable for us to win. Not guaranteed, but not at all a stretch.
When did I say that we can't beat the Sixers or Kings?
We'll lose to them until proven otherwise. Why? We've already lost to them once. So, until we can prove we can beat those teams otherwise, then it's just your confidence against what has already been proven on the schedule.
So it's been proven that the Nuggets are a team that shoots ridiculous percentages from 3 and score 140+ points in games? No, it hasn't. That has happened precisely once. It was literally our worst performance of the season and their best simultaneously. If you take our average performance over the season Vs their average performance, we have every reason to think the win is attainable.
Look, if you WANT to make everything look as bad as humanly possible, that's on you, but you can't expect everyone else to wallow in it.
No. I'm just saying:
We've lost to the Nuggets already. So until proven otherwise, they're better than us. Same thing could be said about the Blazers. We've already lost to them. Until you can prove to me that you can beat them, then they are better. Same thing could be said about the Warriors game. After we lost to them the first time, I then said, "until you can prove that you can beat them, then they are better." And guess what? We lost again.
My point is, until we can prove that we can beat the teams that HAVE ALREADY BEATEN us this year, then we can't say that we are better than them.
It's simply not a viable way of doing analysis.
We lost to Memphis already, so until we prove otherwise they're better than us. Except they suck and aren't in the playoff race.
Golden State lost to OKC, so until they beat OKC, OKC are better.
Cleveland lost to the Hawks, so until they play the Hawks again and win, we are to assume the Hawks are better. Except we all know that's just not true.
It is not a practical, applicable, or functional method of judgement to say that if you lose to a team you are therefore fundamentally worse than that team, until you beat them. It's just not the case at all, and it's such a stunning non-sequitur to jump from "X lost to Y" to "Y is better than X" that it almost gives me a headache.
In case anybody is interested the Warriors are a measely 121-11 at home in the last 3+ seasons. 4 of those 11 losses have taken until overtime. More than half of them (6) have come vs. the Spurs, Rockets and Celtics.
Spurs
Bulls (OT)
Celtics
Wolves (OT) -- end of season
Spurs
Rockets (2OT)
Grizzlies (OT)
Celtics
Jazz -- end of season
Rockets
Pistons
But it's a frickin' disaster the Pels lost to them tonight, on a second night of a back to back, in the Bay Area. Obviously time to blow it up, along with 28 other teams apparently.
And we obviously don't mean to go the opposite that there's nothing to be concerned about like our bipolar center or the streaky nature of our 3pt shooting. Or that Rondo is still not particularly good at shooting...at all.
But I mean, we were WAY worse off this time last year. I'm not upset or despairing by any stretch. If we continue to stay relatively healthy going forward, get some guys back, hopefully actually make a move or two after December 15th, who knows where we end up.
Definitely agreed. No one is saying we're a perfect team, there's still irritating things we do, dumb plays here and there, frustrating aspects of the team and the playstyle and the coaching. But there's a difference between recognising issues while still appreciating what you do have, and simply slamming your balled up fist in the panic button hard enough to break your wrist.
Did anyone find it strange that gentry decided to play Ian clark after Moore picked up his fifth foul? No Miller?
Apparently Hill is the missing piece that is going to take us from here to HERE. Never mind that fact that he hasn't spent any time with this team this year (so it's not like this is a loss we haven't had time to plan for), but the way we hang on to these injuries like some last vestige of glory is sad.
If you Jimmer it, they will come.
First, here (as opposed to HERE) is actually quite fine. You are doing fine. there are only 3 teams in the West, and 4 in the whole league, clearly doing better.
Secondly, Hill will actually help, as minor as he is, he is an eventual patch to the biggest remaining hole. And the x factor is just playing together. It's a new team, running a new system, and a franchise with no history of success. It's going to take a while for everybody to fully settle in, and for "winning confidence" to appear.
Finally of course, IT WAS THE WARRIORS. Hint: you're going to lose to them today, and if you run into them in the playoffs, you'll lose the series. So, in all likelihood, will everybody else. It's not important. It's just part of the current league, not how anybody except the 4 or 5 contenders try to measure themselves. Get your losses over with, and go try to beat as many of the beatable teams as you can. The goal in year 1 is to become a good team, not an all time team.
It is absolutely year 1, and in fact a big chunk of the offense changed with the arrival of Chris Finch this season, and right now, you're in the playoffs. It's working fairly well.
Most of the people responding negatively in all this are caught in yesterday's news. That all changed when Cousins arrived. It changed further when he helped recruit Rondo, and further vets were sprinkled over the roster. Now all of a sudden you're competitive in almost every game.
And the thing is I think that people know this...they just don't know that they know this. My evidence? When was the last time you were actually upset at the Pels for losing to the Golden State Warriors, one of the most spectacular dynasties the league has seen?
Last edited by Bricklayer; 11-26-2017 at 02:39 AM.
We must be realist. We dont have ANY chance vs Warriors team. We are making way to many stupid TO and very low IQ PlayS. For ex afer time out we let Rondo to shoots jumper? Really? It was close one but througt hole game I was thinking 'when GSW is making their run?' Very frustrating game to watch. Now We need to regroup and Find the way to beat Wolves.
Tough loss. Anytime your matched up with the Champs of any league its always a measuring stick to see where we stand against the best.
This time it hurts more than others for sure. This loss falls on Alvin Gentry not on DC or any players. Alvin Gentry needs to let his assistant coaches make the calls on their game plans and follow them in the adjustments during the game. Not sure why D Miller is not starting? Sources say he is pushing to get in the line up which I believe will be the difference maker. Rondo is Killing us at the point guard position He Can't Score !!!! No sense putting him on the floor and expect to win with 0 production? Not impressed with him at all. I personally think he is Done. Next up Timberwolves in the blender
Last edited by Buckwheat; 11-26-2017 at 07:45 AM.
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