Should we keep Jrue on the team next season?

[6warddude]

well,,diallo is looking good in the game tonight...

[NMThreeMVP]

It's a stupid premise because teams have different cap situations from us. We are in a new world of the NBA where. You used to only see 2 max deals on a team, now we are seeing 3 and sometimes even 4. This isn't a "how to be a doctor" discussion because there is no standardized way to try to win a championship.

Even if we exclude the Cavs, there is still the Clippers and Memphis. There's also a lot of other teams who will very soon be facing similar decisions. Possibly Utah, Boston, Portland is already cap strapped and still will have more decisions to make soon, the Warriors are about to have to pay Curry and that will be 3 max and a 4th near max on their team.

So again, you asked a question, I answered it.

Warriors will be paying the cost of being the best team in the league. Every guy on that roster deserves the contract they'll receive, but once Curry gets his max, they'll be hard pressed to fill out the rest of the roster and have any sort of bench.

Portland is an example of a team that the Pelicans should try to avoid duplicating, and a near perfect example of why you don't overpay your own players just because you're afraid to lose them. They've got two guys, Lillard and McCullum, that play to the level of their contract. Now they're stuck. Competing for the 8th seed and pushing up against the luxury tax.

It will be interesting to see what Utah does with Hill. They obviously throw the max at Hayward, but Hill would put them in a tight spot to keep key role players like Exum, Hood, and Favors after next year. Keeping Ingles might even be tough this year. Can a 4/5 seed in the West lose that much talent over the next two years and keep up? I bet they don't max Hill, because their GM is smarter and better than the Pelicans GM, or so yall have told me.

Boston is interesting. They're going to be the #1 seed in the East this year. Their entire payroll seems like it's only a few million more than what we could be paying AD, Cousins, and Jrue in a couple of years! I guarantee you, when/if Danny Ainge finally gives out that 3rd max contract he will be completing a team that is competing for an NBA title, not betting on a roster he hopes can make a playoff run. That team doesn't have to resign any of their own free agents this summer and they will add a #1 overall pick to the core of a 1 seed. Phenomenal job by Danny!!!

So we're left with the Pels being Portland as a worse case if we resign Jrue to a max and we're stuck with a capped out roster... And Memphis as the best case. An 8 seed, or a 7 seed.

And I'll admit this is all assuming Jrue doesn't become a much better basketball player. If he does that, I'll be pleasantly surprised and delighted. I'll even buy Holiday jerseys for the family and agree to one of those goofy season ticket holder promos during the game where we grin with delight while holding a big Smoothie King smoothie and holding our tickets.

I just have no reason to believe that will happen because you can't point to a time in NBA history where what you're proposing has worked out.

[billfromfinance]

This again is far too simplistic. When players, trainers, sport scientists, coaches, and executives all talk about the impact of fatigue and injuries and Holiday misses months of fatigue "suggesting" that said time off aided Jrue and remaining healthy isn't throwing something against the wall and hoping it sticks. Glad everyone doesn't think like you. We'd all be stuck in the Bronze Age most great discoveries start with someone's thoughts they couldn't back up.

Keep getting personal about it. I'm not here because I want to think like everyone else, and for you of all the people on this board throwing shade about how someone thinks is pretty surprising. You aren't Einstein here, you aren't going out to do anything to prove your nothing statement. What you have said is not the theory of relativity. You said it is likely the reason why Jrue stayed healthy. If you can't simply convince me or back it up, then something must be wrong with your argument. I mean, you have to criticize my thinking to undermine my ability to comprehend your point of view?

As an exercise, can you go and research the "months of fatigue" Jrue missed? How many months did he miss this season? You write as if he only started playing in January.

[NMThreeMVP]

Tonight's game only helps us evaluate guys and increase lottery odds, but why isn't Jrue doing anything special out there getting 30 minutes. The turnovers are back. I hope Dell and Gentry are consciously letting him play himself out of a max deal, but unfortunately all it takes is one team like Philly or Knicks to bump his value.

But I'd been saying $20m is my limit, and I'm thinking about lowering that.

[luckyman]

I never thought this franchise considered offering Jrue the max or near max. Was just rumor and blogger talk. Why would you decide something like that in the middle of the freaking season? The thought makes no sense at all.

Their number one priority was getting a true, offensive center next to AD and mission accomplished.

Jrue on the other hand, is one step above a JAG. He does absolutely nothing to really stand out. People thought it was because of having to share the court with Cousins and AD. The last 2 games says otherwise.

[N.O.Bronco]

Yeah MM touched on this with Ryan on the latest In the NO, and its definitely a problem. The question is then why is Jrue poor in these late game situations and is it something the organization believes he can overcome? I feel like someone brought up Jrue's confidence being rather low at some point recently (not sure if it was here, or one of the writers in an article). Did you happen to see his numbers prior to the last two years? Has it always been a problem? Be interesting to see if the last few years circumstances have caused this (you touched on it in another post elsewhere - think it was you, about how his development has been stunted due to the injuries and offseason interrupts when compared to his peers). And/or how much of this has been in his head, him trying to do too much and putting pressure on himself. I think Alvin has touched on it quite a bit, him trying to do too much and overthinking everything.

You can only imagine the front office would be discussing these things internally around budgeting for him, his value, can they turn it around quick enough or is it simpler to chase a Teague. I think its safe to say though that every org interested in Jrue has already looked at Teague and they are all going to be high price tags - the free agent market for decent starting guards is pretty dry this and next season I think. I don't know if its realistic numbers wise, but certainly if it was possible I think everyone would be open to 6war's suggestion of pairing the two.

Glancing at it it seems to be a career long problem.

in 14-15 he was 25% FG, 61% FT, 12 assists, 8 TOV under those metrics I mentioned.

Going back further he had a good shooting percentage his first two seasons in the league. Still, that is soured by him having more turnovers then assists those two seasons under those metrics.

What is concerning is that Cousins is also a very poor clutch player. He turns it over a lot. That is kinda a big hill to overcome if you are going to be going into battle in the waning minutes of games with two of the most turnover prone clutch players in the league.



...The ironic thing if we ended up going after Teague is that he is who we probably would of targeted had we not gave up two first rounders for Jrue back in 2013. With the logic being that Jrue was going to be the better player going forward and was a sure thing. Years later and a strong case can be made that Teague is the better overall player.

[PelsFan2313]

Glancing at it it seems to be a career long problem.

in 14-15 he was 25% FG, 61% FT, 12 assists, 8 TOV under those metrics I mentioned.

Going back further he had a good shooting percentage his first two seasons in the league. Still, that is soured by him having more turnovers then assists those two seasons under those metrics.

What is concerning is that Cousins is also a very poor clutch player. He turns it over a lot. That is kinda a big hill to overcome if you are going to be going into battle in the waning minutes of games with two of the most turnover prone clutch players in the league.



...The ironic thing if we ended up going after Teague is that he is who we probably would of targeted had we not gave up two first rounders for Jrue back in 2013. With the logic being that Jrue was going to be the better player going forward and was a sure thing. Years later and a strong case can be made that Teague is the better overall player.

Nice pun.

[da ThRONe]

Keep getting personal about it. I'm not here because I want to think like everyone else, and for you of all the people on this board throwing shade about how someone thinks is pretty surprising. You aren't Einstein here, you aren't going out to do anything to prove your nothing statement. What you have said is not the theory of relativity. You said it is likely the reason why Jrue stayed healthy. If you can't simply convince me or back it up, then something must be wrong with your argument. I mean, you have to criticize my thinking to undermine my ability to comprehend your point of view?

As an exercise, can you go and research the "months of fatigue" Jrue missed? How many months did he miss this season? You write as if he only started playing in January.

Your whole position is a contradiction. You say you only talk about what you can back up, yet you called my my assertion that missing time aided Holiday a "stretch" without any way to back it up! I don't have a problem with the way you feel, but you are questioning me because I don't think like you that's why we are even having this discussion.

Here's the thing if you miss 16 games that's 16 games you aren't puting your body through the stressful NBA season.

[billfromfinance]

Your whole position is a contradiction. You say you only talk about what you can back up, yet you called my my assertion that missing time aided Holiday a "stretch" without any way to back it up! I don't have a problem with the way you feel, but you are questioning me because I don't think like you that's why we are even having this discussion.

Here's the thing if you miss 16 games that's 16 games you aren't puting your body through the stressful NBA season.

I understand the premise behind it, my issue is how you word/presented it. Anyway Im happy to move along, this has over run its course.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

[da ThRONe]

I understand the premise behind it, my issue is how you word/presented it. Anyway Im happy to move along, this has over run its course.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

I clearly misunderstood your point. I hate arguing semantics if I would have known that was your whole point I would have never even responded. So we can agree to move on.

[hornetsrebirth]

I was about to take up for Jrue's anti-clutch play because I remembered a few games last season where he came up big, but I then decided to look at the numbers to see what they say, lets just say, they are really ugly.

Last two minutes of games within 5 points over the last two years:

FG% = 31% (not awful for a guard, lots of star players have pretty comparable numbers here)

3P%= 20% (again, not great, but he is still statistically better then James Harden in these two stats over the last two years, so maybe you can excuse it a bit)

Assists/TOV = 21 assists, 19 TOV (This is where it starts getting ugly, it is pretty much a coin flip if you give Jrue the ball and ask him to move it, whether he will turn it over or not in the last 2 minutes of close games). That puts you in a pretty compromising position as a team when so many games each season come down to how you manage the last minutes of a game.

FT% = Last year was commendable at 91%, but this year he is shooting a paltry 61% in the clutch.

All four of those together are what sinks him for me. Because at least with someone like Harden or Westbrook you can say, well, he is the focal point of defenders, it is going to be hard for them. But both of them over the last two seasons produce much better Assist/TOV numbers and get to the line and knock down their shots. Not to mention someone like Westbrook is just ungodly in Net Rating under these metrics.

Someone might say, well, you are comparing Jrue to two of the best in the game. Fine, fair point. But when you examine lesser players like Mike Conley, Jeff Teague, Ish Smith, Dennis Schroeder, Darren Collison, and Eric Bledsoe they all measure out better in totality with these offensive metrics.

Where Jrue should get some credit is being a plus defender in the clutch. In that capacity he has been acceptable. To me it seems like whatever we do, Jrue is not the guy you want to be giving a lot of responsibility to in the clutch on a regular basis.

And in that sense, maybe that is why you look to bring in a Darren Collison type to play with Jrue. And to those looking at alternatives. One guy jumped out at me in these numbers and that was Jeff Teague. I wasn't expecting it but he is shooting a comparable percentage to Jrue(33%) BUT has not even turned the ball over in the clutch this season. And only three times all last season. For a sport that often comes down to how you close games, that is an impressive resume as a facilitator for Teague. His Net Rating is also pretty spectacular at +16 over the last two seasons.

This is really the only criticism of Jrue that actually has merit. People saying he can't distribute the ball and run the offense, can't get to the lane, that's all lies. Here we actually have something that is backed up with data. Jrue has not done well in the clutch. This is an area to work on, maybe with specific plays to go to in the final minute, maybe some sports psychology stuff, or maybe just having a different guy you want to depend on with the game on the line.

[da ThRONe]

This is really the only criticism of Jrue that actually has merit. People saying he can't distribute the ball and run the offense, can't get to the lane, that's all lies. Here we actually have something that is backed up with data. Jrue has not done well in the clutch. This is an area to work on, maybe with specific plays to go to in the final minute, maybe some sports psychology stuff, or maybe just having a different guy you want to depend on with the game on the line.

Unfortunately I think some people are going overboard with the criticism of Jrue to make the point that he doesn't deserve anything near a max contract, but let's not forget Holiday is a very solid player and very multifaceted.

[Eman5805]

Jrue doesn't have Chris Paul or Westbrook's killer instinct.

In big moments going forward, best option needs to be find someone who can handle the ball and make plays. I think Jrue would be find in a catch and shoot siituation or cutting backdoor. Not sure how we can do it, but we could really stand to find someone who can handle the rock in...

Iggy.

Could we somehow get Iggy? Or someone like him?

[tdcreator]

I think Jrue as our starting SG and occasional spot PG start would be perfect for him. I think defensively he is great for the SG role the problem lies on the offensive side. I think he can be an good off ball spot up shooter, some back door cuts, and occasional drives to the hoop as a SG (a lot better than EG). He just needs to have a little more of the selfish streak that Davis has gotten. When that happens I think his game will take the next step up. So my offseason would be to either grab a PG or a combo guard then of course another SF. Love to get Blossomgame or Bacon in the second round both 6'7 athletic freaks.

[durun]

I think Jrue as our starting SG and occasional spot PG start would be perfect for him. I think defensively he is great for the SG role the problem lies on the offensive side. I think he can be an good off ball spot up shooter, some back door cuts, and occasional drives to the hoop as a SG (a lot better than EG). He just needs to have a little more of the selfish streak that Davis has gotten. When that happens I think his game will take the next step up. So my offseason would be to either grab a PG or a combo guard then of course another SF. Love to get Blossomgame or Bacon in the second round both 6'7 athletic freaks.

So Dell traded two lottery pick for an all star point guard to play shooting guard.

[donato]

So Dell traded two lottery pick for an all star point guard to play shooting guard.

Somebody needs to do a better job of distributing and not turning the ball over. Jrue isn't cutting it in that role.

[hornetsrebirth]

Somebody needs to do a better job of distributing and not turning the ball over. Jrue isn't cutting it in that role.

Disagree. Jrue is good at distributing and his assist to turnover ratio is acceptable.

[Eman5805]

So Dell traded two lottery pick for an all star point guard to play shooting guard.

Jrue always was a combo guard. Try to force him to be a true point guard all we can, and we'll get little benefit out of it.

[Buckwheat]

It's time for Jrue to follow Gentry out the front door of the Pelicans facility

[Eman5805]

It's time for Jrue to follow Gentry out the front door of the Pelicans facility

And then what?

[NMThreeMVP]

I agree with everyone's assessments of Jrue as a players and how he could fit on the floor, as a SG or combo guard paired with another guard or forward who is a good ball handler and distributor.

Is that a role you're comfortable paying $25m+ for?

[hornetsrebirth]

I agree with everyone's assessments of Jrue as a players and how he could fit on the floor, as a SG or combo guard paired with another guard or forward who is a good ball handler and distributor.

Is that a role you're comfortable paying $25m+ for?

No because that's a dumb vision for the team. Jrue's natural position is point guard. He makes good passes and has the ball handling ability to split defenders off the screen. Also, the offense looks great with Cousins as a point forward at the top of the key, his passing and ball handling combined with size creates a huge problem for defenders. These are the two players who should be initiating most our offensive plays. Adding another player to the starting 5 whose primary skill set is ball handling and passing is unnecessary and takes away from the strengths of Jrue and Cousins. It also does nothing to help with the aspect that is missing from this team: marksmanship perimeter shooting.

[Buckwheat]

And then what?

We draft a Real Point Guard that has break away speed off the dribble.
Give Crawford the starting job at the 2.

[durun]

And then what?

Jackson, backup point with the Celts, should be available for a second.

[NMThreeMVP]

Pretty good group of former Cats pic.twitter.com/yiJbYOIYBC

— Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) September 11, 2015

I'm not saying, I'm just saying...

For a future 2nd round pick, I don't think you'll get any complaints from Boogie and the Brow if you brought in Brandon Knight.