Noel or Holiday

[PELICANSFAN]

Jrue is injured, but he is poised to contribute when Davis is ascending. Until we have a full set of key players (need another wing), none of the future plays (Noel) matter.

There is nothing we have seen that guarantees that. Actually, the greater concern is that he has a chronic injury that will plague him in the future. If I knew for sure he would be healthy going forward I could agree.

[PhilJFry]

There is nothing we have seen that guarantees that. Actually, the greater concern is that he has a chronic injury that will plague him in the future. If I knew for sure he would be healthy going forward I could agree.

Well of course nothing is guaranteed. But look at Gordon this year. Even if Jrue is out the rest of the season, EJ's past injury history is much more extensive and worrying than Jrue's. But he has come back and is on a path to resurrect his career. I've just never heard of a stress fracture / stress reaction problem completely derailing a player's career.
I mean even look at Nerlens. 7 footer with knee problems who had to sit out his entire first year and he's doing fine now. Every player has the chance to get injured. Jrue has just gotten injured more recently.
But I'd rather have a healthy Jrue paired with AD, rather than a healthy Noel.

[42]

There is nothing we have seen that guarantees that. Actually, the greater concern is that he has a chronic injury that will plague him in the future. If I knew for sure he would be healthy going forward I could agree.

There are no guarantees about most things, and I am not looking for one. This is simply my rationale.

You also perhaps misunderstand stress fractures. This is not a chronic injury. This is a second injury with likely similar causes that are external to Jrue. As stress fractures (for people his size) are injuries related to overwork, he needs to fully heal and change his routine.

It is possible he has some chronic bone issue, but we really have nothing to base that on while simpler and medically-checked explanations are present.

[lawless522]

As far as the reading, some did, some did not. You are talking about the former mostly, I and the other guy were talking about the latter exclusively.

Stress fractures are not problematic, and what we have seen is likely Jrue working too hard. Time will tell. You can provide examples of guards (giants with stress fractures in their feet are irrelevant, as you know).

Your build through the draft comment is supported by which teams? All teams draft some players, ao building through the draft means something specific.

What is it you mean?

I say a decent definition is: a team that wins a title with a "top pick" they drafted who was continuously on their team.

Thoughts? We can mess around with what top pick means in the lottery era. 1? Top 3? Top 5?

Saying some did and some didn't creates a false equivalency. One guy jokingly replied to a comment saying Jrue wasn't doing much in street clothes. Best I see, everyone else who addressed the injury did it from a long term context.

Just because stress fractures are more career threatening to big men, doesn't make them exclusive to giants alone. Athletes get them all the time and the cause can simply be genetic. Neither of us know the reason for Jrue's, but, at a minimum, studies show that, once you get a stress fracture, you are more likely to have at least one recurrence. I don't think Jrue's career is in serious jeopardy or anything, but these things can take forever to heal and do recur. Bradley Beal is on his 3rd straight year of dealing with this.

Jrue's initial injury occurred in January 2014. If you believe the only reason this happened again is that he worked a little too hard a year later, that right there should illustrate just how tricky these things can be. Thus far, it's cost him major playing time in 2 of his 4 year deal with us. It was a year between the initial injury and reaggrivation. The initial prognosis was 2 weeks, then a month, and now...who knows. At this point, labeling this injury problematic is hardly a stretch.

Please note that I'm only addressing small market teams because, aside from whatever small market team Lebron chooses to call home, they're not attracting superstars. Perhaps when we've accumulated one or two more pieces, big time talent will start forcing trades here, or sign for less money to try for a ring, but, as you noted, you have to build that core first. I understood why they went after Jrue to do that, but it was a gamble and, as it stands, they overpaid for a player who has yet to prove he's anything more than slightly above average. I hope he does one day. As for the small market teams who've successfully built through the draft, I would think those are fairly obvious. We had a brief amount of success with it when we drafted Paul at 4, West at 18, and traded next to nothing for an undervalued Tyson Chandler.

[42]

Saying some did and some didn't creates a false equivalency. One guy jokingly replied to a comment saying Jrue wasn't doing much in street clothes. Best I see, everyone else who addressed the injury did it from a long term context.

Just because stress fractures are more career threatening to big men, doesn't make them exclusive to giants alone. Athletes get them all the time and the cause can simply be genetic. Neither of us know the reason for Jrue's, but, at a minimum, studies show that, once you get a stress fracture, you are more likely to have at least one recurrence. I don't think Jrue's career is in serious jeopardy or anything, but these things can take forever to heal and do recur. Bradley Beal is on his 3rd straight year of dealing with this.

Jrue's initial injury occurred in January 2014. If you believe the only reason this happened again is that he worked a little too hard a year later, that right there should illustrate just how tricky these things can be. Thus far, it's cost him major playing time in 2 of his 4 year deal with us. It was a year between the initial injury and reaggrivation. The initial prognosis was 2 weeks, then a month, and now...who knows. At this point, labeling this injury problematic is hardly a stretch.

Please note that I'm only addressing small market teams because, aside from whatever small market team Lebron chooses to call home, they're not attracting superstars. Perhaps when we've accumulated one or two more pieces, big time talent will start forcing trades here, or sign for less money to try for a ring, but, as you noted, you have to build that core first. I understood why they went after Jrue to do that, but it was a gamble and, as it stands, they overpaid for a player who has yet to prove he's anything more than slightly above average. I hope he does one day. As for the small market teams who've successfully built through the draft, I would think those are fairly obvious. We had a brief amount of success with it when we drafted Paul at 4, West at 18, and traded next to nothing for an undervalued Tyson Chandler.

I did not set up an equivalence of any sort. I set up a distinction.

All your points about stress fractures are fine. I did indicate that stress fractures are not an issue for smaller players, just that a Yao Ming example is irrelevant here. What you list are rarer cases, not the likely cases. Possible, yes. Probable, no. Worriesome, yes.

If you want to say the Paul Hornets built through the draft, I can not object. I will say they built a second round team. The Thunder built a team that was hammered in the Finals (injury factor).

What evidence is that building this way is the building we want if we want a title?

[lawless522]

I did not set up an equivalence of any sort. I set up a distinction.

All your points about stress fractures are fine. I did indicate that stress fractures are not an issue for smaller players, just that a Yao Ming example is irrelevant here. What you list are rarer cases, not the likely cases. Possible, yes. Probable, no. Worriesome, yes.

If you want to say the Paul Hornets built through the draft, I can not object. I will say they built a second round team. The Thunder built a team that was hammered in the Finals (injury factor).

What evidence is that building this way is the building we want if we want a title?

The distinction you drew was that there were some who did and some who didn’t. My point was that there was one who did and several who didn’t. Pretty meaningless point for us to belabor though. I just wanted to throw in that it was reasonable to factor injury history into the long term question. I’ll move on.

“Possible, yes. Probable, no. Worriesome, yes.” Perfect way to phrase it.

I don’t mean to suggest that we do want to build this way. In fact, I’d say all evidence to the contrary. I’m just saying that, in my opinion, it’s the more effective way to build for a small market team. I could be wrong, but I can’t think of a single, small market team that’s achieved long term success by taking one top player and surrounding him with pricy veterans who, while talented, there isn't a one who's considered among the elite at their position.

[42]

The distinction you drew was that there were some who did and some who didn’t. My point was that there was one who did and several who didn’t. Pretty meaningless point for us to belabor though. I just wanted to throw in that it was reasonable to factor injury history into the long term question. I’ll move on.

“Possible, yes. Probable, no. Worriesome, yes.” Perfect way to phrase it.

I don’t mean to suggest that we do want to build this way. In fact, I’d say all evidence to the contrary. I’m just saying that, in my opinion, it’s the more effective way to build for a small market team. I could be wrong, but I can’t think of a single, small market team that’s achieved long term success by taking one top player and surrounding him with pricy veterans who, while talented, there isn't a one who's considered among the elite at their position.

I agree. Data on both sides says all routes are doomed to fail if success is a title. So, you have be happy with winning up to a point, the journey, stuff like that, or you embrace the risks taken to do the very difficult. I think this route is viable and fraught with pitfall potential, just like the draft strategy and attract superstar strategy.

That said, I think some of our players are trade assets. Because of this, I am not as worried as some today. I may be tomorrow.

Solid discussions, as others have echoed.

[lawless522]

Much appreciated. Here's hoping we buck the trend. Thanks for the insight and for engaging.

[Perth_Hornet]

Noel 23 and 14 tonight.

We need to stop pretending that Noel and a 1st wasn't a massive overpay for Holiday.

It was. We need to acknowledge it and move on.

[Eman5805]

Noel 23 and 14 tonight.

We need to stop pretending that Noel and a 1st wasn't a massive overpay for Holiday.

It was. We need to acknowledge it and move on.

What you need to acknowledge was that the Pels did not draft Noel then decide to trade him. That was all set up beforehand if Noel was available when we picked.

If we didn't have that trade in place before hand, we would've taken Trey Burke.

[da ThRONe]

What you need to acknowledge was that the Pels did not draft Noel then decide to trade him. That was all set up beforehand if Noel was available when we picked.

If we didn't have that trade in place before hand, we would've taken Trey Burke.

I don't think it's fair to post a guy stats in threads like this every time said player has a big game. It's so prisoner of the moment thing. And this is coming from someone that hated the Holiday trade.

[Sovereign]

I don't think it's fair to post a guy stats in threads like this every time said player has a big game. It's so prisoner of the moment thing. And this is coming from someone that hated the Holiday trade.

Noel's been really good all year though.

[Tin_Food]

I would have taken Jrue at that point in time, because Noel was actually more "injury prone" at the time. I think provided both players are healthy I still would have taken Jrue, because I think that Noel probably wouldn't have developed to where he is now if he were to play with AD (not enough minutes to go around, not sure if Noel would play that well in the packed Western conference).

Jrue is a 2 way player, and his perimeter D is essential in this league, and especially in the west. His offense is good enough, and actually quite good at time which is another facet we miss a fair bit. There are plenty of pgs that are good offensively, and a decent number that are good defensively, but few that are good at both, this is why I think Jrue is so valuable.

Noel I think is playing pretty well, but the context needs to be thought about as well. He's putting good numbers on a bottom dweller in the already much weaker Eastern conference in the weakest division in the NBA. Would he perform this well in any other division, or perhaps in the playoffs, would he be a factor?

I'm not saying that he won't or isn't good, his numbers and the adv stats seem to point to him being a potentially very good defensive player. But those other factors need to be put in consideration as well.

[tthier2]

I would have taken Jrue at that point in time, because Noel was actually more "injury prone" at the time. I think provided both players are healthy I still would have taken Jrue, because I think that Noel probably wouldn't have developed to where he is now if he were to play with AD (not enough minutes to go around, not sure if Noel would play that well in the packed Western conference).

Jrue is a 2 way player, and his perimeter D is essential in this league, and especially in the west. His offense is good enough, and actually quite good at time which is another facet we miss a fair bit. There are plenty of pgs that are good offensively, and a decent number that are good defensively, but few that are good at both, this is why I think Jrue is so valuable.

Noel I think is playing pretty well, but the context needs to be thought about as well. He's putting good numbers on a bottom dweller in the already much weaker Eastern conference in the weakest division in the NBA. Would he perform this well in any other division, or perhaps in the playoffs, would he be a factor?

I'm not saying that he won't or isn't good, his numbers and the adv stats seem to point to him being a potentially very good defensive player. But those other factors need to be put in consideration as well.

Exactly jrue at the top of his game >>>>>>>> Noel and any following pick

[Euphonetiks]

Would rather Noel and Payton. Always thought we gave up too much.

[N.O.Bronco]

I would have taken Jrue at that point in time, because Noel was actually more "injury prone" at the time. I think provided both players are healthy I still would have taken Jrue, because I think that Noel probably wouldn't have developed to where he is now if he were to play with AD (not enough minutes to go around, not sure if Noel would play that well in the packed Western conference).

Jrue is a 2 way player, and his perimeter D is essential in this league, and especially in the west. His offense is good enough, and actually quite good at time which is another facet we miss a fair bit. There are plenty of pgs that are good offensively, and a decent number that are good defensively, but few that are good at both, this is why I think Jrue is so valuable.

Noel I think is playing pretty well, but the context needs to be thought about as well. He's putting good numbers on a bottom dweller in the already much weaker Eastern conference in the weakest division in the NBA. Would he perform this well in any other division, or perhaps in the playoffs, would he be a factor?

I'm not saying that he won't or isn't good, his numbers and the adv stats seem to point to him being a potentially very good defensive player. But those other factors need to be put in consideration as well.

Well the bad team argument actually makes his defensive numbers look even better in that context. Offensive stats are a lot easier to get then defense stats on a bad team.

If the team is that crap and yet he is posting elite level rim protection percentages that says something. Same with his effect on the teams defensive stats when he is on the court. One guy having that much impact, let alone on a team that bad, is pretty impressive from a defensive perspective.

I mean how many times have we all made the excuse that Asik's rim protection numbers(still good) aren't as great as they should be because we are allowing so much penetration from our guards? Yet a guy in an even worse team is posting better run protection percentages.

[da ThRONe]

Noel's been really good all year though.

My comment wasn't meant to discredit Noel's season. I just don't see the point of posting game by game stats of players in situation like this.