December 21st - New Orleans Pelicans @ Cleveland Cavaliers - 16-12

[Pelicanidae]

Tonight in Cleveland!

🏀: vs Cavaliers
🕡: 6:30 pm CT
📺: @BallySportsNO
📻: @995WRNO #Pelicans | @SmoothieKing pic.twitter.com/WqSUKQfbIl

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) December 21, 2023

After a horrible loss last game, the Pels are on the road again to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland has a 16-12 record too, and their net rating - while worse than ours - isn't actually far off. They're a decent team.

They are, however, struggling with injuries right now. Evan Mobley is Out, Darius Garland is Out, and Donovan Mitchell missed last game with an illness that may still be lingering.

The Pels, however, are not immune; this non-COVID illness has been going around the league (other than Donovan Mitchell, it's caught Gordon Hayward, Killian Hayes, Jae'Sean Tate, Norman Powell, and Amen Thompson, just to name a few), and unfortunately that has included the Pelicans. According to our latest injury report, posted last night, Zion, Herb, and Jonas are all also questionable with this non-COVID illness. We'll see how that pans out and if they play.

Last game rightfully caused a lot of upset. There were problems on the court from players, yes, but there was also a complete deviation from the strategies that have been winning lately (made 22 3s in our last win, only shot 25 in Memphis game, for example) and a lack of effort in getting into those better looks. However, one thing that was good to see was Willie Green speaking to the media yesterday and admitting that he thinks he messed up the lineups towards the end of the game. This is absolutely true, and it's good of him to acknowledge it.

Willie Green is a defensively minded coach working with an offensively minded roster. Now, that can work, if the uses his defensive mindset to create a baseline level of competence on defense that allows the offense to flourish without worrying about turning into Indiana. Unfortunately, this is not what he does most of the time: instead, he stifles the offense considerably in an attempt to create a League First Defense with a roster that isn't equipped to do so with any consistency. This is why Naji Marshall and Dyson Daniels - good players who definitely should be getting minutes, don't get me wrong - are getting minutes ahead of Jordan Hawkins, and it's why Trey Murphy is getting 21 minutes in a game we need shooting, and it's why Trey rarely plays together with Zion despite that being an obvious offensive pairing, and it's why we constantly see single-shooter lineups despite us finally having shooters.

It shouldn't take a genius to work this out, but if last game has given Green the motivation to fix it, then I'll take it. Better late than never.

Let's see how Green adapts going forward and find out if we can pick up another win here.

[Pelicanidae]

For those interested in reading more about Willie Green's defensive focus clashing with the roster, I recommend these reads:

https://intheno.substack.com/p/forgot-about-trey - Forgot About Trey by Shamit Dua

After the game, Murphy told media that defenses would have to “pick their poison” with he and Zion, and no matter their choice, the opponent would lose either way.

The staff has no interest in forcing defenses to pick this poison. [...] They are content throwing Murphy out there as lone shooter to try and carry defense heavy units that have no ability or desire to create good looks - a departure from the early season philosophy that saw multiple shooter heavy units leading to success.

[...] Sometimes things are simple and not worth overthinking. The Pelicans are 22-7 over Murphy’s career when he attempts 8 or more threes. They are 41-60 when he attempts 7 or less, in games he has played at least 10 minutes. There is likely a fair amount of survivorship bias at play, but it is on the whole organization to figure out if there is actual truth to the data. There needs to be a prolonged effort to rectify this failure.

And this post on Reddit by user 'asapshrank', titled ''8 blown double digit leads in only 28 games: How Willie Green is keeping the Pelicans from reaching their full potential'': https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comment...only_28_games/

In the modern NBA, when your team goes up significantly, you go balls-to-the-wall with offense to keep and extend your lead. You put 2-3 shooters out on the floor at once, and just keep the shots coming. It's simply the way the NBA has worked for years now. The modern NBA is simply too offensively oriented and talented - no matter what defensive lineup you put out there, the other team is going to score. If you have a lineup full of non-scorers on the floor for defense's sake, you are going to find the other team suddenly closing that large gap you built.

Unfortunately Willie Green doesn't realize this, and continues to put defensive lineups or lineups with no shooters on the floor when the Pelicans are up big, leading to complete collapses and blown leads.

[Fedupfan]

It’s utter non sense what Willie Green does. Bottom 3 coach.

[Pelicanidae]

Zion OUT with non-COVID illness

Herb and Jonas both game-time decisions with the same issue.

[Pelicanidae]

Herb Jones (non-COVID illness) and Jonas Valanciunas (non-COVID illness) will be available tonight in Cleveland.

Cody Zeller will be out with a right ankle sprain.

— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) December 21, 2023

[6warddude]

so jonas is the only big and he is sick also....

i guess the saints will beat the rams tonight...

[Pelicanidae]

Trey got the start instead of Dyson.

I used to dream of days like this.

[Pelicanidae]

Oh hey look, Trey's really good at basketball.

[Pelicanidae]

I hope that Green's taking notes this game about how much better your offense looks when you start with 2 guys who can shoot instead of 1.

[As I See It]

We've already enjoyed a double digit lead in first quarter.
Number nine?
We'll see!!!!

DEFENSE...DEFENSE...DEFENSE!!!

[Fedupfan]

The Dyson Herb lineup is terrible

[Pelicanidae]

The Dyson Herb lineup is terrible

It's because it's never just Dyson/Herb.

If Green was like, okay Dyson/Herb but the other three are CJ, Trey, and Matt Ryan - for example - you might be able to get away with it. Only player under 6'5, three shooters, two elite defenders, it might work.

But he doesn't. He goes Dyson/Herb/Naji/Jose/Nance or something (when Nance is healthy) and now your team has a bunch of defense on it but it can't score or rebound so yeah, you get beaten in those minutes.

[As I See It]

It's because it's never just Dyson/Herb.

If Green was like, okay Dyson/Herb but the other three are CJ, Trey, and Matt Ryan - for example - you might be able to get away with it. Only player under 6'5, three shooters, two elite defenders, it might work.

But he doesn't. He goes Dyson/Herb/Naji/Jose/Nance or something (when Nance is healthy) and now your team has a bunch of defense on it but it can't score or rebound so yeah, you get beaten in those minutes.

You mean like Dyson and Herb plus Naji, Jose, and 'HIM" (bowing reverently)?

[Pelicanidae]

Pels win first half 66-52 behind Trey Murphy continuing to prove that when you play him and give him shots, he will reward you.

Some very good play from BI as well, particularly liking his passing tonight. Looking sharp.

[hornetsrebirth]

Im watching the Saints still not talking to the Pelicans

[hornetsrebirth]

but that might change soon if the saints keep this up smh

[hornetsrebirth]

Holy **** Trey with great defense to stop a fast break. He is playing his ****** off today

[Pelicanidae]

Oh hey look, it's the Herb/Dyson/Jose/Naji/JRE lineup.

What were we saying about Green playing lineups with zero scoring?

[JJackisangry]

Good close. Trey has been phenomenal

[Pelicanidae]

Trey's a menace. Start this man.

[hornetsrebirth]

Trey's a menace. Start this man.

in place of who?

[Pelicanidae]

in place of who?

Herb.

Love Herb, still think he needs 30 minutes a night to play, and you can close with whoever is doing best at the time, but I just think JV, Zion, and BI benefit massively from the additional shooting and the defense should still be good enough to stay afloat give CJ and JV's massive improvements on defense this year.

It's not about him being a better player than Herb overall (though he clearly is offensively, and clearly isn't defensively) but about the compound effect that adding a guy with his skillset will have on everyone else.

[Pelicanidae]

Tonight Trey took 4 3PAs from at least 30 feet and went 2/4 on them lmao.

Another of his makes was a 29 footer.

[Pelicanidae]

17-12 (our current record) is on pace to win 48 games.

Last year's 3rd seed in the West won 48 games.

[hornetsrebirth]

Herb.

Love Herb, still think he needs 30 minutes a night to play, and you can close with whoever is doing best at the time, but I just think JV, Zion, and BI benefit massively from the additional shooting and the defense should still be good enough to stay afloat give CJ and JV's massive improvements on defense this year.

It's not about him being a better player than Herb overall (though he clearly is offensively, and clearly isn't defensively) but about the compound effect that adding a guy with his skillset will have on everyone else.

maaaaybe. im not convinced but would be interested to see what happens with it