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This should be in the convo?
https://twitter.com/NoCeilingsNBA/st...464359424?s=20
Somebody else embed it.
I understand people open. Get hot. But 11 in a row??
I can see Griffin and co falling in love with him. Remember they were high on Duren last year and they reportedly interviewed Lively at the combine. With his late Season burgeoning passing game and defense improvement I will not be totally opposed to select him despite the poor track record of his agent with young bigs.
I don't really see the comparison, honestly, duren was so much above Lively as a prospect as to make the comparison unfair imo. Unless you just think they like bigs in general, which I'm not really in agreement with.Originally Posted by Blattman
And for context, I don't dislike Lively - I have him a solid first rounder, but he isn't in my lottery and I wouldn't prioritise his archetype for this team, assuming we actually use the draft pick.
Edit: I will note that this changes if you absolutely buy the shooting based on the workouts and such. I'm not really buying it considering the complete lack of indicators prior to this, but if you do buy it then obviously he moves up the board.
Last edited by Pelicanidae; 05-27-2023 at 12:42 PM.
Basketball.
In any case, guys who are likely to be there around #14 that I would be interested in:
Jett Howard, Brice Sensabaugh, Nick Smith Jr, Leonard Miller, Gradey dick, Keyonte George, Cason Wallace.
A couple of those are stretches (Wallace is currently mocked at #11 on Tankathon, for example) but might fall, the others like Howard are fairly reasonable bets to be there around the 12-16 range.
All of those guys are a bit different from each other but I think they're good picks for the range, and some of them would be steals (I have Wallace top 10 ish in my big board, for example).
I'm definitely not as high on Cam Whitmore as the mocks are. I've seen him get so wild on the floor, he falls down for no apparent reason. He could be a more athletic/bigger Isaac Okoro. No thanks.
Also not as high on Cason Wallace, but like him more than Whitemore.
Conversely, think I'm higher than most on Jordan Hawkins. Talking his overall game and potential-- not just the shooting. Would be very happy if he's taken by us at 14.
My comparison with Duren was because he's a young defensive minded center with the ability to switch on perimeter and moderate success at college level. I agree Duren was more advanced but I think Lively might have more upside.
This draft is quite fluid so far, there's no clear hierachy yet after the top 3. There's even prospect projected as late first round that I like better than some projected to be selected in the late lottery.
It's somewhat fluid but I'm not sure that there's no clear hierarchy - for example, pretty much everyone agrees Miller, Whitmore, Jarace, and the Thompson twins are top 10 at the least, from what I've seen. Maybe the disagreement pops up more in media mock drafts but I wouldn't know since I follow draft experts as individuals rather than going to ESPN or whatever.
Who's that prospect you have in mind?
I’d be happy with GG Jackson, Lively, or Whitehead. None would get much playing time if we run it back but I believe all could be groomed for more. Jackson could replace Nance, whitehead replace Naji, and Lively replacing Jaxson.
What's your thoughts on Kobe Bufkian ? What's a realistic ceiling for Nick Smith Jr?
CAW CAW!!!
-Founder and valuable member of the Caw Caw Boyz-
Actually it's more than one. I really like Trey Alexander and Podziemski as late first round picks. Also Bufkin and Leonard Miller are projected as late first round in some mock. Usually I'm not a huge fan of it but I wouldn't mind a trade down in this draft.
I’m also on the Hawkins bandwagon if he’s available at 14. I could see him developing into a 3&D type of role player.
I'm "Team Wallace" until he is picked ahead of # 14
OR
The Pelicans pick up a competent veteran PG in Free Agency. (I'm sick and tired of all the ISO foolishness. A real, honest-to-goodness PG makes BI, #1, and, most of all, CJ even better offensively).
Either case being true, I trade back into the late teens, and go with Lively and other complementary assets and then I pray that DD and/or Kira improve tenfold (or Jose' grows four inches...lol).
The most important ABILITY that a player must demonstrate in order to claim "Superstar Status" is AVAILABILITY!!
I really like Wallace. However, are the days of a "true" PG over for now? Many teams are not facilitating through "true" PGs anymore. More are using combo guards, or wings. They are getting the ball into their stars earlier to facilitate or score.
That’s what I was thinking. True PGs are a dying breed. I do like Wallace too though.
....until you need one. How bad are we at protecting leads late in games (see CJ in Phoenix series last year)? And, how many times could we not even inbound the ball on 'side-outs'?
Also, I fervently believe in the principle of diminishing returns. The more you ask your 'so-called' studs to do, the less effective they are AND the more injury-prone they become.
Stars star; Facilitators facilitate. There is no one on our roster who can do both with any consistency.
Last edited by As I See It; 05-28-2023 at 05:30 PM.
For what its worth, I heard something a day or two ago by a scout who said on a lot of these one year players from major schools like Duke, you need to go back and look at their high school tape as well. Reasoning is, at schools like Duke, NY, NC, etc, the coach has his system, and you play a role within that system, so you don't necessarily get to show all the skills you have. Made sense. They specifically mentioned Lively as one of those guys.
I know, and I watch high school tape and listen to/read people who also watch high school tape. Watching high school tape (and international play) is how I was so confident that Wiseman was not a number 1 pick despite his minimal college play, and part of why I'm so bullish on the Thompson twins.
Kentucky is the worst school for evals in my opinion. Everyone gets nerfed there except pure system players, who always look great.
I have Kobe as a borderline first/second guy. Could see him as high as the high 20s, as low as the late 30s. Projects as an okay shooter and secondary creator, maybe a bench unit leader down the road/6th man energy. I like his defense though.
For Nick Smith, funnily enough I actually think he's a little CJ like, as an ultimate ceiling. Great touch, great drive game with a versatile handle for self creation, relatively inexplosive but a good mover, and a good passer (though not excellent). I think he's better than CJ defensively, if he peaks, but he's not a lockdown guy either so I still think a CJ comp fits. I have him around that 14-20 range in my board, so if we picked him I wouldn't be mad but there's probably someone better if I had to bet.
I'd like Hawkins, too. I think we need a confident shooter/scorer to stretch the floor with Z, BI, Herb, and Dyson, and could keep keep bench afloat.
How good do you think the Thompson twins can be?
They both have All-star potential. I think Amen all-NBA potential, as a real possibility. Ausar could possibly get there but it would be one of his higher end outcomes.
They're both spectacular. In last year's draft, there would have been no question about both of them in the top 3, in my mind.
Edit: got their names the wrong way around. Honestly the worst part of evaluating them is the names. Why isn't one of them called Sam or something?
Just notes from my big board:
Amen:
One sentence summary: If you take Tyrese Haliburton and then make him also Gerald Green, and then also give him SGA's finishing craft, you get Amen.
Strengths:
- One of those ''holy ****'' athletes. Moves like Fox but he's 6'7, and again, has that SGA style body control.
- Excellent finisher with craft, can use both hands, shields the ball well, uses his athleticism well and has no fear of contact.
- Ridiculous passer. Not quite Luka or Jokic tier but not that far off either. Sees things before they happen.
- Absurd team defender. Hands are in every passing lane, and can basically guard anyone 1v1 at the sub-NBA level. Will be a plus defender without question.
- Some of the best and most effortless lateral movement I've ever seen.
Weaknesses:
- Really can't shoot right now. It's better than it was, say, 18 months ago, but it's still bad. It's going to be an entire rework to be NBA ready. He has the touch that it's not impossible to imagine but it's going to be a long multi-year effort - Lonzo Ball style.
- That's basically it. If he was even just normal-bad as a shooter he'd be in real competition to knock Scoot from #2 for me.
Ausar Thompson:
One Sentence Summary: The mid 2000's slashing wing on steroids, while somehow being better than his brother as a defender.
Strengths:
- Hyper-aggressive scorer who has benefited massively from playing with his mega-passing brother for years. Moves amazingly off-ball, always looking for weak points in the defense.
- Monstrous athlete, like his brother. Lob target extraordinaire, insane vertical.
- Really developing as a finisher - not quite as good as Amen yet but getting there, there's real touch.
- Hilariously good defender, somehow even better than Amen (at least in isolation) because he seems to anticipate a touch sooner than Amen does. Similar levels as team defenders.
Weaknesses:
- He's a better shooter right now than Amen but it's not saying much. He still needs a huge amount of work.
- Only a good team passer compared to Amen's Haliburton level passing.
They're both clear top 10 picks and I wouldn't see anything strange about them both going top 5 honestly.
To compare their defensive styles, I've seen someone say that Amen is more like a free safety and Ausar is more like a shutdown corner, but I don't watch American football so I have no idea what that means or if I would agree.
Wow, you sure are high on Amen. That summary would put him in the upper echelon of NBA players.
If he reaches his absolute top outcome, he has All NBA potential, which would theoretically put him in the top 15-20 players in the league in a given year, so yeah I think that's about where I rate him. If he can even shoot a little he's gamebreaking in some respects, if it all translates.
Obviously there's risks with everything, not everything does translate, and sometimes players get bad team contexts and don't get the development they need or work on the right things. But if things go well, he's a special player.
Kobe Bufkin
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