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Thread: On swapping for Lakers' draft spot...

  1. #1

    On swapping for Lakers' draft spot...

    I may be wrong, but sounding like any 1st round 2024 draft spot pretty much doubled in value...with the end of "one & done" apparently finally arriving that year. Could tip the scales toward putting off on swapping with Lakers until 2024...assuming they don't completely fall apart, this year.
    Last edited by The Dud; 09-19-2022 at 01:49 PM.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by The Dud View Post
    I may be wrong, but sounding like any 1st round 2024 draft spot pretty much doubled in value...with the end of "one & done" apparently finally arriving that year. Could tip the scales toward putting off on swapping with Lakers until 2024...assuming they don't completely fall apart, this year.
    That's not how it works. 2023 we have swap rights. 2024 we have their pick outright, but we could choose to delay it to 2025.

  3. #3
    Thanks...then, it sounds like 2024 might be the year to take the Lakers pick...if the "one & done" really does end that year.
    Last edited by The Dud; 09-19-2022 at 02:38 PM.

  4. #4
    I have always found that pick fascinating, and think that decision could be a harder one to make than most think

    I mean, say it lands 12th and its a double draft, do you just take it? 16th?

    Because the value isnt just in the pick, its in having the pick to trade too. If you take it in 2024, then you have a player to trade come the Feb 2025 trade deadline, and we know those are almost always less valuable than the value of a pick who is still unknown.

    But if you decline the pick in 2024, the Lakers now KNOW they are giving their 2025 pick away, so they will have no reason to lose games/will try everything to be good. Where, perhaps with the 2024 pick, they will want to just rid themselves of the obligation so they might not try to win every single game if things are already going bad.

    Its so interesting to me, and I really wonder what the cut off would be where you definitely take it, vs roll the dice on next year and also have a pick to trade as opposed to a player
    @mcnamara247

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I have always found that pick fascinating, and think that decision could be a harder one to make than most think

    I mean, say it lands 12th and its a double draft, do you just take it? 16th?

    Because the value isnt just in the pick, its in having the pick to trade too. If you take it in 2024, then you have a player to trade come the Feb 2025 trade deadline, and we know those are almost always less valuable than the value of a pick who is still unknown.

    But if you decline the pick in 2024, the Lakers now KNOW they are giving their 2025 pick away, so they will have no reason to lose games/will try everything to be good. Where, perhaps with the 2024 pick, they will want to just rid themselves of the obligation so they might not try to win every single game if things are already going bad.

    Its so interesting to me, and I really wonder what the cut off would be where you definitely take it, vs roll the dice on next year and also have a pick to trade as opposed to a player
    I got kinda dizzy just thinking about the options. BTW: When, exactly...do the Pels have to make their decision on whether to take the 24 or the 25 Lakers pick? Off the top of my head...I think a 12th pick on a double draft is a definite "take"...after about pick 16 or so...I start to get dizzy again.
    Last edited by The Dud; 09-19-2022 at 07:32 PM.

  6. #6
    Its usually within a week or so after the draft lottery. They will absolutely know what the 2024 pick is before they have to decide

  7. #7
    Assuming you're still here...just a quick curious question. At the moment, would you trade Herb straight up...for Bridges? For the sake of conversation, let's assume they were the same age and the money was the same.

  8. #8
    Which Bridges? Phoenix one? Of course.

    I love Herb, and feel I was one of the first on the bandwagon, but now I feel like the expectations are overblown. I have seen people talking Iggy or something close. I know Pels management gave him a trade equivalent of a top, tier star. Their logic is contract + production made him nearly as valuable as a superstar on the max. Which I think is insane.

    He is a nice player with some room for growth, but I will bet anything that we will see a lot of posts in the next 2-3 years about how disappointing Herb was on a given night, week, month, season. Not because he gets worse, but because the expectations have grown. I think that him becoming the 2020s Horry would be amazing, but something closer to Tony Allen overall impact wise is more likely. Which is fine, I will take it, but if I had a chance to sell high like that, I would in an instant

  9. #9
    Herb will improve defensively this year, imo. Be hard not to do so...given the knowledge he will have accrued against the guys he will be guarding night in and night out and the normal added "respect" that will come from officials, after his rookie season. On the respect, I always think of Kawhi in his rookie year, when he couldn't even get close to LeBron without drawing a foul and then, after his rookie year...it seemed like LeBron couldn't get far enough away...from Kawhi.

    The key for Herb, of course, will be his offensive development, or lack thereof. Herb has always been a weird dude and a very late bloomer. I think his increased handling of the ball this year...will surprise many people. He'll have to start from square one...offensively...but the guy has a way of making things happen. We shall see

  10. #10
    You can go the other way too and say teams will go into this season aware of Herb's good on ball D (he is actually a little below average off ball IMO - gets caught watching a lot). And when you consider the Pels other bad defensive options, teams can easily run stuff to ensure their top options wont have Herb on them, thereby limiting his defensive impact. And then if he shoots more like post AS break Herb, he is a net negative on offense with low impact on D. Thats possible, just as your projection is possible.

    I want the super optimistic Herb people to be right, but if I had to bet, I would bet his peak trade value is right now. Because, while he might get 5-8% better, he will get paid 1500% more soon enough

  11. #11
    Pretty much agree on trade value...from the $$ angle. Herb was indeed a bit weak off-ball in the 1st half of the year but I thought he actually improved in that aspect in the 2nd half of the season. Suns proved your point on avoiding Herb during the playoff series, when they were seemingly content to just sacrifice Booker to keep Herb out of the picture...and just let CP3 abuse the pitiful defense we had left...while Herb stood at the 3-pt line with Booker.

    Shooting? I'm gonna try not to get started again on what I thought Herb shot from 3-pt distance last year, as opposed to what nearly all others think he shot.

    Bottom line...I don't think the Pels are worried anymore (and I'd bet they WERE, at some point) about Herb turning into a "Thybulle", who is indeed, a net negative on offense which makes the 76ers unsure if they even want the guy on their team.

  12. #12
    I can see it go several ways. We can all pretend we know the future, but none of us do. I just play the odds and the most likely, and history says he is likely to be pretty close to his peak already, despite it only being his 2nd year. Guys usually get a lot better because their athleticism starts high and their IQ then catches up. The guy who starts year 1 with the IQ is far less likely to make the big leaps we see from most guys in years 2, 3, 4, etc. He isnt going to get more athletic/explosive. But maybe he becomes a Draymond, and maybe he does get more respect from the refs, etc like Draymond did - and his IQ becomes even better and more valuable and his is a unique generational defender who plays an important role on offense. All possible, I just tend to go safe and place my bets on whats most likely

  13. #13
    First thing...I meant to mention regarding the "avoiding Herb" problem we will likely face in the future, we need DESPERATELY to find another SOLID wing defender to step up and assist Herb when that problem rears its' ugly head. Hoping you agree that DD is gonna be the answer to that problem.

    Herb is definitely fairly close to his peak as a defender already, but there is still room for a bit more upside, given his work ethic. And since I already have him in the top 2 as far as defenders given today's NBA "game", I'm totally content with that.

    The players that fascinate me the most, for this coming year, are Trey and DD. If they can develope as I hope they can, gonna be an interesting Pels team to watch. And if Herb can get off that 3-pt line & show the ability to handle the PG? position...like Oats thought he could at Bama...all bets are off...the sky is the limit.

  14. #14
    I think Trey, DD, and how these last Lakers picks fall are the key to this franchise ceiling. At least one of those have to become a top 40-50ish player for any real chance at being a contender.

    Which is why I am hesitant to trade for a Bogdanovic type, even if they help win a few more games this year. I would make it a mandate that Willie play Trey over 1500 minutes this year and DD over 1200. And I would not give him players that will risk that objective

  15. #15
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I think Trey, DD, and how these last Lakers picks fall are the key to this franchise ceiling. At least one of those have to become a top 40-50ish player for any real chance at being a contender.

    Which is why I am hesitant to trade for a Bogdanovic type, even if they help win a few more games this year. I would make it a mandate that Willie play Trey over 1500 minutes this year and DD over 1200. And I would not give him players that will risk that objective
    Totally Agree!! Those two have got to get significant minutes this year.

    Also, I would limit Zion's workload until he we see how well his legs hold up and I would limit CJ's minutes early in the season for his sake, too. The only players I would play 32+ minutes early on are BI and Herb. As the season unfolds the numbers could be adjusted to facilitate more Zion and CJ as warranted.
    The most important ABILITY that a player must demonstrate in order to claim "Superstar Status" is AVAILABILITY!!

  16. #16
    I would also limit Zion's workload so he doesnt get All NBA. I wont hate if he gets it but I'd be happy saving those couple million every year while we are up against or in the tax

  17. #17
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I would also limit Zion's workload so he doesnt get All NBA. I wont hate if he gets it but I'd be happy saving those couple million every year while we are up against or in the tax
    Point taken....and shrewd!!

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I would also limit Zion's workload so he doesnt get All NBA. I wont hate if he gets it but I'd be happy saving those couple million every year while we are up against or in the tax
    If I was Zion and I got wind of the idea that the team was purposefully limiting my ceiling, purposefully trying to engineer a worse season for me (that's not necessarily true but it's how a player is likely to view it, trying to deny them all NBA honours), and potentially even make the team worse depending on how lineups with him fare, I'd be fuming. If there was even a hint of suspicion of that going on it would not be good for a locker room.
    Basketball.

  19. #19
    Charter Member PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    If I was Zion and I got wind of the idea that the team was purposefully limiting my ceiling, purposefully trying to engineer a worse season for me (that's not necessarily true but it's how a player is likely to view it, trying to deny them all NBA honours), and potentially even make the team worse depending on how lineups with him fare, I'd be fuming. If there was even a hint of suspicion of that going on it would not be good for a locker room.
    Agree. If they want to do that, it better not be evident. We have a hard enough time keeping star players. If we play dirty with their contracts, it will be even harder.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN View Post
    Agree. If they want to do that, it better not be evident. We have a hard enough time keeping star players. If we play dirty with their contracts, it will be even harder.
    The way I see it is fairly simple; if he's playing well enough to get the All NBA spot at those extremely competitive forward spots, then he's worth paying the extra money anyway. Don't try and get cute with top 20 players.

  21. #21
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    We just held our ankles for 15 years to faciltate another 'superstar' in the other Airline Drive Sports Complex with just one title, but, at the same time, a litany of personal records to show for it. During that player's run, countless players were lost to free agency and the team was 'gutted' to allow for 'The Chosen'.

    I'm all about what's best for the collective whole and protecting players from their staunchest enemy...themselves. In Zion's case, he has played 85 basketball games at the highest competitive level on the planet during the last three years (well less than half of his team's games) and hasn't played competitive basketball in well over a year. He has been injurred every year dating back to his senior year of high school (2017). Management would be derelict in their responsibility to the organization and to Zion if they just threw him out there and said, "no matter what, big guy, you will get 35 minutes a night beginning with game one".
    Last edited by As I See It; 09-20-2022 at 04:29 PM.

  22. #22
    I would say it would be more of an added benefit not an objective. He should be playing 30-32 mpg and have 6-8 scheduled games off regardless.

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I would say it would be more of an added benefit not an objective. He should be playing 30-32 mpg and have 6-8 scheduled games off regardless.
    I agree for the most part. I don't mind if the mpg creeps up a bit over 32 but it shouldn't be over 35 by any means, and I think 6-8 rest games is fairly standard for any star or would-be star these days, for better or worse.

    I don't think that actually holds him back from all NBA status myself - I personally think he should have been 3rd team the last season he played - but if it does then that's just coincidental. That's fine. Its if the team was doing it with the objective of preventing that, that could be disastrous.

  24. #24
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    I don't want to trade any of the Lakers picks. We need cheap contracts moving forward. We're already paying Zion, BI, and CJ a ton. We only have Herb under contract for this year and next. He's gonna wanna get paid and rightfully so. The next year it will be Trey's turn to get paid, and we all think he's gonna make a leap.

    Let's keep adding young, cheap players with massive upside with these Lakers picks. The 2023 swap will be valuable. The Lakers suck. And then we'll see if we wanna defer in 2024 to 2025.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Upper Decker View Post
    I don't want to trade any of the Lakers picks. We need cheap contracts moving forward. We're already paying Zion, BI, and CJ a ton. We only have Herb under contract for this year and next. He's gonna wanna get paid and rightfully so. The next year it will be Trey's turn to get paid, and we all think he's gonna make a leap.

    Let's keep adding young, cheap players with massive upside with these Lakers picks. The 2023 swap will be valuable. The Lakers suck. And then we'll see if we wanna defer in 2024 to 2025.
    On the Lakers 2024 or 2025 pick option, assuming high school kids can choose NBA option in 2024...the more I think about it, it's obvious the double draft in 2024 will make that the route we almost MUST take. Because no matter where the Lakers' slot is for 2024...it is actually twice as good as it first appears to be. If it's an 8 slot, it actually translates to what is a normal 4 slot, given the added talent available to be picked. If it's a 16 slot, it's actually an 8 slot...etc...Gonna be really hard to come up with a scenario, whereby we turn down that 2024 slot from the Lakers...assuming those wild & crazy high school kids come rolling into the NBA in 2024.

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