.
Pelicans Report
 
Results 1 to 23 of 23

Thread: The Pelicans treasure window is at is peak= Trading into the top 4

  1. #1

    The Pelicans treasure window is at is peak= Trading into the top 4

    We have to think how GMs are viewing these Lakers picks. Y'all this might be our best window to strike with these picks because if by some chance the Lakers get better those picks move to teens/20s. Right now they are a dumpster fire, Free agency starts July 1st.

    Using our treasure chest now to move up in the draft is likely one of the better windows we may have before the Lakers improve and how other GMs view their situation.

    We trade 8th pick and a ton of our future Lakers picks we can definitely move into the top 4. It's a huge gamble to assume these picks will hold as much value now vs around the trade deadline or in the future.

    Would you guys cash in now if you believe any of the top 40 guys can be a top 30 player (word to MM) or would take the gamble and stand pat and bank on the Lakers to get worse?
    CAW CAW!!!

    -Founder and valuable member of the Caw Caw Boyz-

  2. #2
    Yeah I definitely think there?s a good chance the 24/25 Lakers pick is at its peak value right now. They have a lot of cap space after next year to rebuild the roster around Davis. Also who knows the desperation of some teams. For all we know, this summer Zach Lavine may want to join the Lakers and the bulls decide to sign and trade him for Westbrook just to get a player back with their cap situation and the 2027 pick.

    That happening would also devalue the 2023 pick swap option.

    If the pelicans have a target they know won?t be there at 8 and don?t want to settle, then yeah I?m all for them using the 24/25 lakers pick while it?s hot to try to move up.

  3. #3
    Prior to a draft, the vast majority of fans will land on do not trade up. Especially when the target is not a sure thing (as they rarely are). Three years later, most will wish the Pels will have traded up, because while many guys APPEAR to be on the same tier, history will show they were not.

    Trading 10 plus 2 future firsts for 6 in 2012 would have appeared bonkers. The consensus was that Tier 1 was AD, then tier 2 featured MKG, Beal, and Thomas Robinson. Then, there was a pretty big tier 3, with a bunch of 'could be good' guys - one of those being Damian Lillard. Cut to 3 years later, and if you offered anybody taken 10-25 for Lillard, you would have had to attach 8 firsts to even get the Blazers to consider and they would have still said no.

    Now, to be fair to the other side, you could have given 10 and two firsts to move up for Thomas Robinson, and it would have been bonkers. So, that is where the fear comes from and it is why most will argue to stand pat at #8 and take a guy who might turn out just as good or better as the one you would trade up for. But I always fall back on one simple fact -- You have to be the best out of 30. Not good. Not really good. Literally better than 29 other teams, all trying for the same thing as you and that is really hard. You cant play it safe when it comes to the opportunity to get one of the few guys in the NBA who can REALLY move the needle. A team based in New Orleans will not get that guy in free agency. They will only get it in a trade if they give up a guy who really moves the needed (AD for Ingram). So, the draft is where they need to get it and if you feel like you can go from a 10% chance of getting that guy at 8 to a 25% chance to get him at 3 or 4, you must be aggressive.

    But again, I know human behavior and most will disagree. But come back to this message board in 2025 and ask if we should have traded up back in 2022, using that Lakers pick. I bet you get a vastly different answer.
    @mcnamara247

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Prior to a draft, the vast majority of fans will land on do not trade up. Especially when the target is not a sure thing (as they rarely are). Three years later, most will wish the Pels will have traded up, because while many guys APPEAR to be on the same tier, history will show they were not.

    Trading 10 plus 2 future firsts for 6 in 2012 would have appeared bonkers. The consensus was that Tier 1 was AD, then tier 2 featured MKG, Beal, and Thomas Robinson. Then, there was a pretty big tier 3, with a bunch of 'could be good' guys - one of those being Damian Lillard. Cut to 3 years later, and if you offered anybody taken 10-25 for Lillard, you would have had to attach 8 firsts to even get the Blazers to consider and they would have still said no.

    Now, to be fair to the other side, you could have given 10 and two firsts to move up for Thomas Robinson, and it would have been bonkers. So, that is where the fear comes from and it is why most will argue to stand pat at #8 and take a guy who might turn out just as good or better as the one you would trade up for. But I always fall back on one simple fact -- You have to be the best out of 30. Not good. Not really good. Literally better than 29 other teams, all trying for the same thing as you and that is really hard. You cant play it safe when it comes to the opportunity to get one of the few guys in the NBA who can REALLY move the needle. A team based in New Orleans will not get that guy in free agency. They will only get it in a trade if they give up a guy who really moves the needed (AD for Ingram). So, the draft is where they need to get it and if you feel like you can go from a 10% chance of getting that guy at 8 to a 25% chance to get him at 3 or 4, you must be aggressive.

    But again, I know human behavior and most will disagree. But come back to this message board in 2025 and ask if we should have traded up back in 2022, using that Lakers pick. I bet you get a vastly different answer.
    MM which future picks would you attach to be aggressive to move up and grab your guy in the top 4?

  5. #5
    I'm not really opposed to moving up. This pick was such a shot in the dark you might as well try to get the most value out if it that you can.

  6. #6
    Maybe. Or maybe a 40 year old LeBron and a frequently hurt AD really, really suck in one of 2024 or 2025. Just wait and continue to add talent as you go along. You have no clue what you'll need then, but if you make the wrong choice now you can paint yourself into a corner.

    But this front office has lacked patience, so I wouldn't be surprised if they cash that Lakers pick in.

  7. #7
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    public housing
    Posts
    3,484
    Quote Originally Posted by Biasvasospasm View Post
    Maybe. Or maybe a 40 year old LeBron and a frequently hurt AD really, really suck in one of 2024 or 2025. Just wait and continue to add talent as you go along. You have no clue what you'll need then, but if you make the wrong choice now you can paint yourself into a corner.

    But this front office has lacked patience, so I wouldn't be surprised if they cash that Lakers pick in.
    I like the urgency to win. The quibble is rather they have traded for the right guys or not, and whether if they move up they'll pick the right guy. I'd trade up for Sharpe or Jabari. I'd put every draft asset we have on the table to do so and wouldn't look back.

  8. #8
    Season Ticket Holder
    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Location
    The Bywater
    Posts
    182
    Danny Ainge had patience with all his picks.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Biasvasospasm View Post
    Maybe. Or maybe a 40 year old LeBron and a frequently hurt AD really, really suck in one of 2024 or 2025. Just wait and continue to add talent as you go along. You have no clue what you'll need then, but if you make the wrong choice now you can paint yourself into a corner.

    But this front office has lacked patience, so I wouldn't be surprised if they cash that Lakers pick in.
    What you are missing is that we HAVE been playing the long game and being patient. There comes a point where we have to think how other GMs value or picks and what the Lakers status will be. Either way, there is a huge gamble to trade the picks now, or hold on to them and trade later.

  10. #10
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    public housing
    Posts
    3,484
    A pick in the hand is worth two in the bush.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    A pick in the hand is worth two in the bush.
    Do you mean a non liquidated pick or the other?

    Are you saying an unknown quantity outweighs the known?

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Silverfoxx View Post
    MM which future picks would you attach to be aggressive to move up and grab your guy in the top 4?
    I would definitely give up our pick next year (with swap rights to LA), top-1 protected to go get Sharpe and maybe Ivey

    I would give up that Lakers 2024/25 pick to get Chet (not gonna happen) and maybe Paolo, maybe Sharpe

    I would give up both to move up for Chet and Chet only

    And obviously, I view both of those Lakers chips more valuable than any of our own future picks and/or the Bucks picks, so I would give up multiples of those for guys.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I would definitely give up our pick next year (with swap rights to LA), top-1 protected to go get Sharpe and maybe Ivey

    I would give up that Lakers 2024/25 pick to get Chet (not gonna happen) and maybe Paolo, maybe Sharpe

    I would give up both to move up for Chet and Chet only

    And obviously, I view both of those Lakers chips more valuable than any of our own future picks and/or the Bucks picks, so I would give up multiples of those for guys.
    What teams and scenarios do you see as possible for this move up? Could Kings sell this kind of trade-down to their fans, or more likely which 3rd team would take our Lakers' picks for their veteran starter.

    OKC as a wildcard trade down at 2? Rockets at 3?

  14. #14
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Shreveport
    Posts
    2,571
    What about something like 8 and Graham for 12 and Dort? Does that interest OKC?

    If so, I'd jump on that and pray one if Daniels, Mathurin, Sochan or Davis fell to 12.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by RUFshreve View Post
    What about something like 8 and Graham for 12 and Dort? Does that interest OKC?

    If so, I'd jump on that and pray one if Daniels, Mathurin, Sochan or Davis fell to 12.
    I would do that, only if I knew I had an opportunity to trade out of 12 - if Sochan, Daniels, and Dieng were gone. So, if those 3 are gone, and I can trade 12 for two future protected 1sts, then I would rather do that then just taking the highest guy on my board but that I dont truly love. Walking out of the draft with Graham off the books, Dort on the roster, and two future picks I can use for ammo in a trade wouldnt be the worst thing in the world. But it wouldnt be as good as Daniels either, IMO

  16. #16
    Also, not me - but the one I think the Pels would heavily consider is a trade down to take a center (Duren or Williams)

    They still want that long term big and really liked some guys in recent drafts, like Isaiah Stewart. A trade down to the end of the lotto where they get some good assets, maybe a player, and maybe get off Graham, Jax and/or Temple is a real option. Something like:

    8, Graham, and Jax for 12, Dort, Wizards first (protected in different ways from 2023-26, but should convey at some point), and Jazz 2024 pick

    Then, you take Williams after you get an overpay from OKC because they have so much ammo. Again, I wouldnt do it because I hate spending valuable resources on centers unless they are elite, but this FO really values the center position and I think they will love Williams particularly.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Also, not me - but the one I think the Pels would heavily consider is a trade down to take a center (Duren or Williams)

    They still want that long term big and really liked some guys in recent drafts, like Isaiah Stewart. A trade down to the end of the lotto where they get some good assets, maybe a player, and maybe get off Graham, Jax and/or Temple is a real option. Something like:

    8, Graham, and Jax for 12, Dort, Wizards first (protected in different ways from 2023-26, but should convey at some point), and Jazz 2024 pick

    Then, you take Williams after you get an overpay from OKC because they have so much ammo. Again, I wouldnt do it because I hate spending valuable resources on centers unless they are elite, but this FO really values the center position and I think they will love Williams particularly.
    When you say this FO, you mean Griffin specifically, don't you

  18. #18
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Shreveport
    Posts
    2,571
    MM, what do you think Dort's next contract will look like? I'd love him on this team, especially if he's replacing Graham, but he only has one year left on his deal, so we'd have to resign him to make the deal make sense.

    Also, I'd be crushed if we walked away from this draft with a center as our first pick. Especially one that can't stretch the floor somewhat.

  19. #19
    Dort is a tough one. It’s just so rare that a guy signs with another team for more than the MLE, and the guys that do usually have a different profile than Dort. That said, cap is about to rise again. My guess is something similar to what Marcus Smart got

  20. #20
    A Soulful Sports Fan Contributor Eman5805's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    29,751
    I don't know what to think about Sharpe. But I know I really like Jaden Ivey. Chet is...I guess I just gotta get over my skinny bias. But whatever. We trade for for any of those three dudes, I'm good.

    I'm a simple meathead who sees big strong physical 18 year old and I want. So a trade down that nets us Duren is aces.

  21. #21
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Shreveport
    Posts
    2,571
    Quote Originally Posted by Eman5805 View Post
    I don't know what to think about Sharpe. But I know I really like Jaden Ivey. Chet is...I guess I just gotta get over my skinny bias. But whatever. We trade for for any of those three dudes, I'm good.

    I'm a simple meathead who sees big strong physical 18 year old and I want. So a trade down that nets us Duren is aces.
    Better be a trade WAY DOWN. I just don't like rim protectors that don't have much else in the lottery.

  22. #22
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Shreveport
    Posts
    2,571
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Dort is a tough one. It’s just so rare that a guy signs with another team for more than the MLE, and the guys that do usually have a different profile than Dort. That said, cap is about to rise again. My guess is something similar to what Marcus Smart got
    Similar to the contract Smart JUST got? Cause that's almost $20 mil per year and that's too much for Dort. But the contract Smart just finished that was like $12 mil per year would be palatable.

  23. #23
    Or you can just sit tight. Someone will drop as drafts go.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •