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Thread: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

  1. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post


    This is cool.

    Zion mentioned that the team has already talked about meeting up in the offseason during his availability also, so it's good to see it's a real topic
    The culture really blossomed.

  2. #77
    https://twitter.com/chicagobulls/sta...hylJ6CjL4Rux_Q

    The Lavine situation keeps getting weirder.

  3. #78
    Zac probably re-sign or looking to team up on a Super Team... Where Idk... Who he even buddy with in the league? I know he still got love with his Minn guys

  4. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by P_B_&_G View Post
    Wow, came here for the off-season thread and stumbled into a math board. Weird!

    Taker is right folks. The odds are not cumulative. You don't get to add them for each pick. Thats not how this works.

    It's kind of like flipping a coin. Each individual flip has a 50% chance. But you don't get to add those odds for different flips. Also, each flip has no bearing on the odds of another flip. So, if you get heads 10 times in a row it doesn't change the odds of the next flip. It's still 50%. The human brain makes you think that after 10 on the same side would alter the odds. Like what are the odds of 11 in a row? But that is a different calculation based on the number of flips. Not on a single flip. Each individual flip has its own odds of 50%.
    The odds are definitely cumulative. And people wonder why we're 49th in math all the time. The Houston example is the easiest because they can't fall below 5. They have a 47.9% chance of getting the 5th pick...since it is 100% probability that they will get any pick at all, this means that their chances of top 4 are 1-0.479 or .521 (52.1%).

    Your math is fine on the coin flip example, it's just that you're looking at it the wrong way. If you flip a coin 4 times, each individual flip is 50/50 but the odds that at least 1 of the 4 flips comes up heads is much greater than 50% (93.75% to be exact). That is how the lottery math works...there are 4 number combinations picked (coin flips), what are the odds that the Pels get their number drawn (heads) on at least one of those. Of course unlike a coin flip/heads, if we're picked once we can't get picked again (this is why our odds are slightly different for each pick, they draw the numbers for the first pick first and that removes x number of combinations from the pool so our odds on the 2nd pick increase because there are less possible winners but we still have the same number of combinations).

  5. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN View Post
    Anyone have an idea as to what Zions contract will look like per year if he gets the max?


    Just to clarify since I was working in this year's upcoming rookie extension numbers in the earlier discussion - just saw this.

    Apparently it's gone up (no surprise) since Luka signed his $207m deal, and the absolute max for Zion - and others of his draft class, I assume - is 5yrs/$222.9m. That's a lot of money - averages out to about $44.6m a year.

    It goes to show how rapidly contracts are exploding. If Zion had signed that deal in 2016 and was being paid $44.6m in 2017, he would have been the highest paid player in the NBA by far.

    Now? When that contract activates, Steph Curry will be on a deal that will see him paid $56m a year through his mid-late thirties. Giannis will be on a deal that pays him $46m a year, culminating in a $51m *player option*. Jokic will be on similar money to Steph. Suddenly $44.6m a year isn't the top paid guy in the NBA, but instead just fairly typical for a superstar. Wild.

    Edit: typo correction and some added info.
    Last edited by Pelicanidae; 04-29-2022 at 07:15 PM.
    Basketball.

  6. #81
    For the coin flip as an analogy remember if you hit on one flip then you stop flipping.

    Probability of getting heads on the first flip: 50%.
    Probability of getting heads on the second flip (after missing the first): 50% (the probability of missing on first) x 50% (the probability of hitting on second) = 25%
    Probability of getting heads on the third flip (after missing the first two): 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%
    Probability of getting heads on the fourth flip (after missing the first three): 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 6.25%
    Probability of getting a heads on any of four flips = 50% + 25% + 12.5% + 6.25% = 93.75%

    What confuses people is that the NBA has done the math for us in the lottery. For the coin flip analogy they would report the probabilities as (1) 50%, (2) 25%, (3) 12.5% and (4) 6.25% (so you can add them) even though the probability of winning at each step is 50%.

  7. #82
    It's funny as far as my memory goes, I don't remember one offseason like this one without a glaring hole in the rotation.
    With the current roster plus the return from the injured players, there's no need of a big trade, the team can afford to be patient. The focus should be on finding younger players to learn before replacing Jonas and CJ in the future.

    Draft the best player available, come into the training camp with an open mind on the rotation and send the young players out of rotation to g-league to improve and accumulate reps (I would bet on Kira+the first round pick).

  8. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    People don't realise that with Zion about to get a max extension, BI being paid $30m, CJ being paid $35m, and JV being paid $15m, plus the potential of having to extend Jax (not a max extension, but still), we're basically capped out for the future and we're going to have to improve the team through the draft if we want any chance of talent at a reasonable price.
    This is a big reason why I don't think there will be much change this offseason. I think both Graham and Jaxson start the season as Pelicans. Beyond that, we'll see. If Graham doesn't get much playing time next year, he could potentially be traded away as late as the following offseason to clear $12m from 2023/24 cap space so that the team stays under the cap, or not much beyond it. Jaxson could end up be a sign and trade after his rookie deal, depending on how he develops and if Zion is healthy... as well as depending on who the team drafts this year where it could be another PF (knock on wood... about a 1 in 250 chance they don't get a pick).

    The current projected tax threshold in 2023/24 is 144.9m. Currently with guaranteed contracts / team options, if the team has Ingram, CJ, Herb, Trey, Jose, Jonas, Naji, Graham, and Willy on the roster, they're already at 108.4m with 6 open roster spots. The contract for the 8th pick in this year's draft would probably be around 5.8m in 23/24 (obviously this is assuming the 8th pick... the 1st pick would be closer to 11-12m in 23/24). Who knows about Zion, but you're looking at upwards of 35-40m on the books that year assuming it's mostly fully guaranteed rather than with incentives. That's already about $150m, which is over the tax threshold of $144.9m.

    Take out Graham and you're back down to $138m with 10 players on the roster. The rest are likely filled up with minimum salary players and you're heading into year 3 of the contracts of Jose, Trey, and Herb. So Jaxson very likely could be gone after next year. And Kira is for sure gone unless he shows big improvement.

    And I didn't even put any consideration into a Larry Nance contract extension that I assume he's going to get this summer.
    Last edited by bradael; 04-30-2022 at 09:58 AM.

  9. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by Taker597 View Post
    No... It's both right.

    Houston has 47.9% of getting a the 5th pick.

    Do you say they have 51.2% of getting a top 4.

    Or do you say they got 4 chances to hit at around 13%? Just because you have 4 chances. It doesn't mean your odds are truly greater than 13%.

    Only get 4 chances to win the draw 14% , 13.4%, 12.7%, and 12%.... If they lose out. They guarantee to be the 5th spot by default if they lose out. If you want the true odds per pick, because you are looking at the graph vertically. It would about an average of this hits.

    Each pick works in 100% value vertically. If you jumble up the top 4 picks. You're saying Pelicans have a 26.3% out of true odds of 400% to get a top 4 picks. The horizontal chart is really empty math. I get what you're saying horizontally... It tells you that there is a 26% chance of our pick. But does the odds add up?

    The context you mean is that you're talking about slot fall from the horizontal graph. The graph tells you have to fall in these parameters depending on these odd. Yet, they do not take into a count of hit rate. Which is what really wins you the pick.

    More chance at the same odd don't stack vertically with the graph unless you have more more picks.

    It's more of a misconception thing. True hit rate vs. Misconception of cumulative odds. Reading the chart vertically vs. Horizontal
    The reason you can't look at it vertically is that it's only truly correct for the 1st pick. As things are at this moment, the horizontal odds of the Pelicans having a 26.3% chance of getting a pick somewhere in the top 4 is correct. The odds on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pick are all speculative at the moment.

    If Houston, Orlando, or Detroit has their numbers called for the first pick, the Pelicans now have a 6.98% chance of their numbers being picked for the 2nd spot, not 6.34%. Likewise, if Houston, Orlando, and Detroit all have their numbers picked for #1, 2, and 3, the Pelicans will now have a 10.34% chance at getting the #4 pick, not 7.22. If Cleveland's numbers are picked for #1, then the Pelicans have a 6.03% chance to have their numbers picked for #2.

    In fact, under ZERO circumstances, will the Pelicans ACTUALLY have a 6.34% chance of getting the #2 pick while the ping pong balls are being pulled for the #2 pick. It's just the average chance under all circumstances after the results of the 1st ping pong balls dropping.

    In short, you can say the Pelicans have a 6.0% chance of the 1st pick, and/or you can say they have a 26.3% chance of a top 4 pick. But you can't really say they have a 6.34% chance of #2, 6.74% chance of #3, or 7.22% chance of the #4 pick without saying the odds before it because #2, 3, and 4 are all reliant on all possible scenarios of the previous pick(s) and won't be the true odds individually as the picks are being made.
    Last edited by bradael; 04-30-2022 at 10:37 AM.

  10. #85
    Need to channel my analytic brain, since I got a distinction in Business Statistics in Uni, where as most people failed it first go. I had a mate repeated it twice, lol

    I understand that probability is pure maths and enjoy explaining the Monty Hall Problem to dem plebs
    Last edited by AusPel; 04-30-2022 at 01:20 PM.

  11. #86
    Ok, here's my assessment of the roster and ideas for the offseason.

    Zion Williamson - Keep him and see how it all works with CJ, BI, JV & Herb in the starting 5. Figure out rotations that keep at least 2 of Zion/BI/CJ/JV on the floor at all times and we shouldn't blow leads when we go to the bench.

    Brandon Ingram - Keep it going as is, pretty simple.

    CJ McCollum - Run the point guard CJ experiment until the trade deadline, then make an honest assessment on if it actually works (are we closing out games effectively). Get a feel for where his camp is at as far as salary expectations go beyond this contract. If CJ -really- wants to retire with the Pels and we want him to take a FO/Coaching role beyond his retirement, hopefully a 4 year @ ~15mil per can be worked out as his role decreases.

    Herb Jones - Keep him and keep him in the starting 5. Hope his 3pt % climbs to league average.

    Jonas Valanciunas - Keep him on board, he seems like the type of guy who will be ok with lesser offensive role and just wants to win games. Likely ok with lesser minutes assuming a Nance/Zion lineup works really well.

    Larry Nance Jr - I have him slotted in as essentially the 6th man. When Zion was healthy he was usually the first 'star' to take a rest in the 1st, then he'd come back in the finish the 1st. Nance comes in for Zion, Zion comes back in to rest JV. Mostly a 3 man big rotation.

    Trey Murphy III - Keep developing him, add a few counter moves to aggressive closeouts on his 3 point looks, work on his defensive capabilities, Takes any minutes Ingram is off the floor and can be used as a small ball 4 when needed.

    Jose Alvarado - Keep him as the backup point guard. The team energiser, the defensive pest, and I'm sure he'll work with Fred on getting his shot fine tuned.

    Those are the only guys I'd 100% commit to having on the roster on opening night next year.

    JV / Nance Jr
    Zion / Nance Jr
    BI / Murphy III
    Herb / CJ
    CJ / Jose

    My thoughts on the rest:

    Jaxson Hayes - I like him and I think if he went in to RFA we wouldn't be scared off by any bids. He's cheap enough still to have fill-in minutes, an 8 to 10 mins role when we're running 10 man rotations, and he is insurance for any of the bigs as he can play either PF or C. But if a really good deal presented itself and Hayes was pursued as part of it or needed for salary matching, then I wouldn't lose sleep.

    Devonte Graham - Just doesn't seem to have a role here anymore. Would be interesting to see if a team with cap space would absorb him and take a couple future 2nds from us for their trouble, maybe some team out there thinks they can get more out of him.

    Naji Marshall - I like Naji but if we're building a contender he's a 3rd string type guy.

    Willie Hernangomez - Seems like a great character guy and is very efficient, wouldn't be surprised if some teams came head hunting for him as their backup C. I'd like to keep him as a 3rd string C

    Garrett Temple - Played himself out of the rotation and I can't see a need for him on the roster.

    Kira Lewis - I wasn't impressed with much but his speed when he was playing. I suspect with Jose's emergence Kira might be traded and sent to the G-League to develop.

    Gary Clark - I didn't mind what I saw from Clark, worth keeping around as a 3rd stringer on the cheap.

    So that leads me to a 15 man depth chart looking like:

    JV / Hayes / Hernangomez
    Zion / Nance Jr / Clark
    BI / Murphy III / ??
    Herb / ?? / Naji
    CJ / Jose / (Kira maybe)

    The area the team should look to upgrade/add depth is on the wing. I'd be really interested in a big guard that can create his own and has excellent court vision/decision making. Brogdon is a name often mentioned but I doubt Indy would do it for Graham/Kira/Temple and thats the only deal I'd accept (maybe with a lotto protected future 1st)

    I like Fultz despite him not being a great shooter. I love his drive and finish potential and his ability to find open guys. I think he'd be an interesting fit albeit not a 'wing' per se.

    Whether the Pels land in the top 4 or stay at #8/#9 there will be a wing player there who can shoot and defend. But the elite playmaker/passer with size seems unlikely.

    If I were Griff and couldn't land Brogdon or Fultz without sending out Graham and Temple then I'd stick with drafting best wing available and wait until the deadline to see how the roster fits are really working.
    Last edited by Impose; 04-30-2022 at 10:14 PM.

  12. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN View Post
    They are both weirdo's.

    I'm from Melbourne, the best city in Australia.
    Have you ever been outside Melbourne though?

    I have. I'm from Perth. And I would say Melbourne is the best city in Australia. And Launceston next.

    Sydney can be last

  13. #88
    as everyone knows now we are pretty set. But we still aren't a good enough 3-point shooting team to win it all. Sucks, cause these guys do so much well; but that's today's NBA.
    Trick is to infuse shooting into our roster without losing much else

    for the first time since the Hornets originally got here, we don't have any abhorrible contracts. Graham makes too much and has to go. Period.

    all of our young guys are on such good contracts that they must stay, including Naj Marshall.

    Jaxson Hayes is the hardest to figure. His upside is insane. He probably won't reach it, but then again he just might. Some team will likely overbid for him... who knows?

    Trey Murphy getting more minutes by becoming a better player is the easiest solution to our shooting problem, but who sits for him to get enough minutes


    in the draft we could use (in order)

    jabari smith- he's like a 6'11" klay thompson. nough said
    jaden ivey- upside upside ..gotta go for a super star guard who would be the best athlete on the floor almost every night
    chet holmgren- gamble we could afford
    shaedon sharpe- his tape screams of athleticism and fundamentals... big gamble but i think he may be great
    bennedict mathurin- may be the ideal fit for us
    keegan murry- could help any team score
    johnny davis- gritty
    ochi ogbaji- ready to contribute
    aj griffin- scares me cause i think of aaron nasmith when i see him
    jaloen duran- we could use rim protector
    paolo ranchero- lol i dont want him. he is julius randle, and thats not a bad thing.; we dont need another forward who needs the ball

  14. #89
    jonas, devonte, kira and temple and a 1st rounder and a couple of seconds for Gobert?





    Gobert, Hayes
    Zion, Nance
    Ingram, Murphy
    Jones, Murphy
    Mcollum, alvarado
    Last edited by fullcourtpress; 05-01-2022 at 12:25 PM.

  15. #90
    I rather give that up for Myles turner atleast he can shoot it

  16. #91
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    I think we need guards. Sharpe and Maturin be ideal and prob one more good 3-D guard. We set at SF with BI, Trey, and Herb. Good at PF with Zion, Herb, and Nance. Fine at center with Jonas, Hayes (and to me he is a big because he doesn’t have handles or shoot well enough for a PF), and Willie. Which really leaves us with CJ and Jose. I’d love to see 3 more guards with us moving graham, Temple, and Snell.

  17. #92
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AusPel View Post
    Have you ever been outside Melbourne though?

    I have. I'm from Perth. And I would say Melbourne is the best city in Australia. And Launceston next.

    Sydney can be last
    Lol. Yes ofcourse.
    I've been to Perth, Cairns, Brisbane, Gold coast and Tasmania. Still need to go to Adelaide and Darwin.

    I really like Tasmania. I think it has the best beaches in Australia, just too cold.

    I've also been all over Europe and Canada too.
    So yeah I've been outside of Melbourne.

  18. #93

    Trade Idea

    I really think the Pels should see if Phoenix is interested in making a trade for Zion, if the Suns don't win the title.

    Ayton + Bridges for Zion + Jonas is the base. Since Zion has been out for a year, add FRP(s) if needed.

    This is a total long-shot suggestion but who knows if the Suns will be open to it unless Griffin asks? Perhaps, the Suns are not willing to carry 4 max contracts (Booker, Ayton, CP3, Bridges)... and might be drawn by Zion's potential star power (which I think will not materialize in New Orleans). The Pels also get to use the $17m TPE from trading Steven Adams to make things work, instead of letting it expire.

    2022-23 New Orleans Pelicans:

    McCollum........... Lewis?, GT Alvarado
    Bridges............. Graham?
    Herb.................. Murphy
    Ingram.............. Kuzma
    Ayton................ Hayes

    Part 1: Trade with Phoenix.
    New Orleans
    In: Ayton [$31,582,376], Bridges [$21,000,000] = $52,582,376
    Out: Zion [$13,534,817], Jonas [$14,700,000] = $28,234,817

    Phoenix
    In: Zion [$13,534,817], Jonas [$14,700,000] = $28,234,817
    Out: Ayton [$15,791,188], Bridges [$21,000,000] = $36,791,188

    Phoenix is sending out $36,791,188 and taking back $28,234,817, so they are okay per the CBA.

    New Orleans is sending out $28,234,817 and taking back $52,582,376, so they need to send out an additional $13,751,083... which is where using the TPE comes in.

    Part 2: Using the TPE with Washington.
    New Orleans
    In: Kuzma [$13,000,000, taken into the TPE]

    Washington
    In: Nance [$9,672,727] + Temple [$5,155,500 filler] + 1 FRP to compensate the Wiz for helping.

    Nance probably fits better on Beal's timeline too and along with Porzingis.

  19. #94
    Any trade that contains the phrase

    Zion's potential star power (which I think will not materialize in New Orleans).
    Has already failed because he already has materialised that star power both on and off the court. On court, he's already been an all-star, barely missed an all-NBA team last season, is already one of the leagues top stars.

    Off the court, he's already got a giant sneaker deal, he's been a top 20 selling jersey in the NBA, and he's already got collabs with giant franchises like 2K and Shonen Jump.

    He's been a star with star power since he was about 17.

    As for the rest, not a huge fan in general - I'm down on Ayton compared to many (I like him but I don't see him as a legitimate star) and I don't think there's any chance Phoenix trades both him - who is on a great budget deal - and a DPOY finalist on a friendly contract for Zion who is going to need to be paid $45m a year from 2023 onwards. A price which I think is actually higher than both Ayton + Bridges combined cost.

  20. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN View Post
    Lol. Yes ofcourse.
    I've been to Perth, Cairns, Brisbane, Gold coast and Tasmania. Still need to go to Adelaide and Darwin.

    I really like Tasmania. I think it has the best beaches in Australia, just too cold.

    I've also been all over Europe and Canada too.
    So yeah I've been outside of Melbourne.
    I've been to Europe a bunch of times but never done North America since I turned 18, which I regret not doing in my 20s

  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN View Post
    Lol. Yes ofcourse.
    I've been to Perth, Cairns, Brisbane, Gold coast and Tasmania. Still need to go to Adelaide and Darwin.

    I really like Tasmania. I think it has the best beaches in Australia, just too cold.

    I've also been all over Europe and Canada too.
    So yeah I've been outside of Melbourne.
    Fellow Aussies. There is a Facebook page for Aussie pels fans (about 12 of us) if you are interested. It?s called Pels12 DownUnder.

    Melbourne is the best btw especially if you love sport and food.

    Go pels!

  22. #97
    it's tough.... i Like our roster as everyone else does these days..... but we simply cannot win in today's NBA while ranking 27th in 3pt% and 28th in 3pt made

  23. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by LAL1947 View Post
    I really think the Pels should see if Phoenix is interested in making a trade for Zion, if the Suns don't win the title.

    Ayton + Bridges for Zion + Jonas is the base. Since Zion has been out for a year, add FRP(s) if needed.

    This is a total long-shot suggestion but who knows if the Suns will be open to it unless Griffin asks? Perhaps, the Suns are not willing to carry 4 max contracts (Booker, Ayton, CP3, Bridges)... and might be drawn by Zion's potential star power (which I think will not materialize in New Orleans). The Pels also get to use the $17m TPE from trading Steven Adams to make things work, instead of letting it expire.

    2022-23 New Orleans Pelicans:

    McCollum........... Lewis?, GT Alvarado
    Bridges............. Graham?
    Herb.................. Murphy
    Ingram.............. Kuzma
    Ayton................ Hayes

    Part 1: Trade with Phoenix.
    New Orleans
    In: Ayton [$31,582,376], Bridges [$21,000,000] = $52,582,376
    Out: Zion [$13,534,817], Jonas [$14,700,000] = $28,234,817

    Phoenix
    In: Zion [$13,534,817], Jonas [$14,700,000] = $28,234,817
    Out: Ayton [$15,791,188], Bridges [$21,000,000] = $36,791,188

    Phoenix is sending out $36,791,188 and taking back $28,234,817, so they are okay per the CBA.

    New Orleans is sending out $28,234,817 and taking back $52,582,376, so they need to send out an additional $13,751,083... which is where using the TPE comes in.

    Part 2: Using the TPE with Washington.
    New Orleans
    In: Kuzma [$13,000,000, taken into the TPE]

    Washington
    In: Nance [$9,672,727] + Temple [$5,155,500 filler] + 1 FRP to compensate the Wiz for helping.

    Nance probably fits better on Beal's timeline too and along with Porzingis.
    This is not how the TPE works...it allows you to take in a player without sending out matching salary (that's the exception part). This trade wouldn't use the TPE since we're sending out Nance/Temple, it would just be a 3 team deal where we're sending out ~$42MM and taking back ~65MM which, without checking any of the math you have, wouldn't be legal.

  24. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by fullcourtpress View Post
    it's tough.... i Like our roster as everyone else does these days..... but we simply cannot win in today's NBA while ranking 27th in 3pt% and 28th in 3pt made
    I can see us trending upwards in that department with a full season of CJ and Trey getting more significant minutes. If the team manages to draft a long 3&D guy that would be ideal as well. Also Devonte might have a turnaround year and be good from deep. Ingram is certainly a solid 3 point shooter. I like Herb's stroke he just needs reps and his % should drift up a little.

    Also we only had a small sample size of Nance, wonder if he can give us 1 a game @ 35%?

    I think this offseason is about finding that one, right, piece.

  25. #100
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AussieHornet View Post
    Fellow Aussies. There is a Facebook page for Aussie pels fans (about 12 of us) if you are interested. It?s called Pels12 DownUnder.

    Melbourne is the best btw especially if you love sport and food.

    Go pels!
    Thanks. 19 now.

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