Pelicans Centric 2022 Top-10 Prospects

[MichaelMcNamara]

I live for hidden gems in drafts. I will look into Dieng. Any other prospects that's under the radar you would like to share would be appreciated. Thanks for the homework assignment.

I dont think he is that hidden. Most teams have him in the top 15. I had him at 14. He was considered a likely top 10 pick in this class after his U16 showing. He wont seem like a reach in the top 10 by the time the lotto gets here. Guys just havent done their homework yet

[Pelicanidae]

I have never seen a future star be a total no show in a Final Four game. Like, sure, have an off shooting night. But he did nothing. No impact anywhere. And that happened more than once at Duke. Its fine to not score if you arent a guy getting a lot of plays drawn up for you, but if you are a top 5/top 8 pick, go do winning things other place. Guy had 17 games with 0 assists. Never had a double digit rebounding game. 26 games with 0 steals. 20 games where he didnt take a single FT. Another 10 games where he had 2 or less FT's.

Like, how does that happen when you are that much bigger and more physically gifted than almost everyone on the court? I just find it so hard to imagine a guy going from THAT to a star. Solid starter, maybe. Star? That would be the outlier of all outliers

I said a little higher, not extremely high. As I said, the likelihood of anyone being a mega star out of this class seems very slim to me - literally slim, in some cases, because I think the best shot for it is probably Chet.

I don't think it's likely AJ ever ends up a top 10 player, but is that a knock on him? Not really, especially given that I think that there's only maybe two people in this entire class who have any chance of ever ending up a top 10 player. But do I think he could be a top 30 player? Top 40 player? Sure, I think that's an attainable high end outcome for him. Do I think that there are 10 guys with higher probabilities than him of that outcome in this class (that is, ten names with plausible high end outcomes higher than his)? Not really.

It's also worth noting that, again, systems dictate a lot in college. He didn't get assists that often: that will tend to happen when you are relegated to being an off-ball player 90% of the time. Zion had 14 games in college with either 0 or 1 assists and only hit 5 assists 3 times. Yet in only 85 NBA games he's hit 5 assists 24 times and had 0-1 assists only 11 times. Fewer occurrences in a larger sample size. The difference? Well, in college he spent all his time being off ball and in the NBA he actually gets some run with the ball in his hands. That matters.

Am I saying I think AJ is just Zion waiting to happen to the NBA? Nah, of course not - if I did think that his high end outcomes were as realistic as that, I'd have him #1 in the class. But it's an example of how judging things based on college systems without first accounting for those systems can lead to misinterpretation of a player.

[Pelicanidae]

But you gotta consider position value. Like, who has more league value -- Jonas, who is probably the 7th best center or OG, who might be the 20th or 25th best wing? Duran could become Clint Capela, but people arent knocking down the doors to get Capela. If Hardy hits and becomes say more explosive Terry Rozier, that has more value than Duran at his likely median outcome.

I'd be more interested in that if I saw the likelihood for Hardy.

You're saying if he hits he could be more explosive Rozier. Cool: what evidence do I have to think he's more explosive anyone? He's not an explosive athlete and hasn't really shown any signs of being that. Unless he really explodes in combine stuff, projecting that as a possible outcome is purely conjecture imo. Could it happen? Sure. But there's no real indications that it will, and if we start ascribing potentials to people based purely on conjecture then we can imagine any player becoming anyone.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I mean, Rozier aint explosive. Being more explosive than him makes you an average NBA guard athlete. And Hardy was top 5 on almost every mock too before the season started. We still dont have enough data to measure G League performance vs college and draw conclusions from it. Hardy and Sharpe were seen as similar tier prospects 8 months ago. One didnt play and one struggled in a league full of men before figuring it out a little bit. And now the one who didnt play is considered 2 or 3 tiers higher. I find that a little weird.

Not that I am a Hardy fan. I have him 18th. But I see him in a similar tier as Duran simply because I dont think you take a non shooting center in the lottery of the draft IMO

[coreylaron]

I think it would be a surprise move to trade Jax this summer, however this is probably
his highest value between now and RFA. I know we like the highlights, how he?s grown, and that we drafted him. In the same breath, how much do we lose from him not being our backup 4 next year? I?d say a shrewd made would be to trade him for a first rounder if possible, and still use that capital to help swing for a real ceiling raiser.

[coreylaron]

I think it would be a surprise move to trade Jax this summer, however this is probably
his highest value between now and RFA. I know we like the highlights, how he?s grown, and that we drafted him. In the same breath, how much do we lose from him not being our backup 4 next year? I?d say a shrewd made would be to trade him for a first rounder if possible, and still use that capital to help swing for a real ceiling raiser.

This was a reply to the Jaxson talk earlier in the thread.

[smcgull]

At first I was happy to see them winning and playing so well, then I was thinking about how much better they will be with Zion. But when I realized they were getting a top 10 first round pick, I thought this team could be a top 4 seed for many seasons.

[redboy0125]

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[Eman5805]

Okay. Okay. I'm in. Dieng is intriguing.

[AusPel]

He is indeed. And I haven't watched any NBL this year

But Daniels pls

[MichaelMcNamara]

Team currently has him top 10 on their board. He is the Giannis type swing. Not saying he will be an MVP. I am talking what people had as a ceiling for 18 yr old Giannis

Like, if Dieng hits, you might have a star. Mathurin or Sochan have higher floors and median outcomes but can’t be a star. Dieng puts it together and he can be Ingram plus

[Eman5805]

Runs with more twitch than Ingram and gets off the floor fast enough to block shots and also...tries to block shots? Maybe could add muscle? Could become a more slender Scottie Barnes type?

Yes, please.

[MichaelMcNamara]

The downside is he is Jonathan Bender. Honestly, it comes down to the intangibles with him. Is he crazy hungry or is he runnif the mill competitive?

That’s the THing with prospects. If I were a GM, 50 percent of my evaluation would be the interview, the background check, etc. and guys like Dae and I have zero access to that. So, you hit some and miss some. I would bet my life that if I had access to that other stuff, I would bat like 98 percent

[RUFshreve]

The downside is he is Jonathan Bender. Honestly, it comes down to the intangibles with him. Is he crazy hungry or is he runnif the mill competitive?

That?s the THing with prospects. If I were a GM, 50 percent of my evaluation would be the interview, the background check, etc. and guys like Dae and I have zero access to that. So, you hit some and miss some. I would bet my life that if I had access to that other stuff, I would bat like 98 percent

You don't mean that last bit literally, do you?

Because the professionals that do have full access and get paid tens of millions to make those decisions, don't even bat 60 percent.

[Silverfoxx]

Team currently has him top 10 on their board. He is the Giannis type swing. Not saying he will be an MVP. I am talking what people had as a ceiling for 18 yr old Giannis

Like, if Dieng hits, you might have a star. Mathurin or Sochan have higher floors and median outcomes but can’t be a star. Dieng puts it together and he can be Ingram plus

Where does the team has Ivey? Like in a scenario where we get pick 3 do they they Banchero higher? Or if we are pick 4 do we trade back? I have a feeling we are not high on him.

[RUFshreve]

Where does the team has Ivey? Like in a scenario where we get pick 3 do they they Banchero higher? Or if we are pick 4 do we trade back? I have a feeling we are not high on him.

If we were lucky enough to get the 4th pick and Ivey is still on the board, that is a no-brainer. He fits alot of what we need at guard. He has star potential. The only way you don't take Ivey, is if Sharpe absolutely blows you away in the pre-draft process.

[new city champ]

We’ve got a pretty big hole @ 6th man/scorer where Graham is supposed to be. Ideally you’d like to fill that with a Tyler Herro type who is also long and can defend. Several of the prospects in our range actually fit the bill. Any of that group of 5 should be able to contribute early as a shooter/scorer off the bench who also provides some size to the backcourt.

[Pelicanidae]

The downside is he is Jonathan Bender. Honestly, it comes down to the intangibles with him. Is he crazy hungry or is he runnif the mill competitive?

That’s the THing with prospects. If I were a GM, 50 percent of my evaluation would be the interview, the background check, etc. and guys like Dae and I have zero access to that. So, you hit some and miss some. I would bet my life that if I had access to that other stuff, I would bat like 98 percent

I don't know if I'd go as far as to say 50% of my eval would be based on those things, but yeah absolutely there's value and important stuff that can be gained from things like interviews, background checks, team medicals, etc, that as a fan-scout-thing I will simply never see. So I don't factor that kind of stuff into my evaluation but obviously it's something I would factor in if I could; I just can't. I'd be making stuff up, or having to trust the smallest of unsourced rumours as fact.

Would I bat 98% if I had that stuff? Probably not, I think that's hyperbole, but I do think that if I had access to those things I'd be a little more accurate sure.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I don't know if I'd go as far as to say 50% of my eval would be based on those things, but yeah absolutely there's value and important stuff that can be gained from things like interviews, background checks, team medicals, etc, that as a fan-scout-thing I will simply never see. So I don't factor that kind of stuff into my evaluation but obviously it's something I would factor in if I could; I just can't. I'd be making stuff up, or having to trust the smallest of unsourced rumours as fact.

Would I bat 98% if I had that stuff? Probably not, I think that's hyperbole, but I do think that if I had access to those things I'd be a little more accurate sure.

Let me refrain....98% barring bad injury luck. Like, I would take Jay Williams every time. But them darn motorcycles, man

[Eyquem]

My second round sleeper is Jake LaRavia. He's got Sochan's block and steal numbers, with a better TS% than Jabari or Paolo. Stuffs the stat sheet in every way imaginable. He reminds me a bit of Franz Wagner. If he's there at 41, that's a yes for me. I'd take him at 25.

[MichaelMcNamara]

My second round sleeper is Jake LaRavia. He's got Sochan's block and steal numbers, with a better TS% than Jabari or Paolo. Stuffs the stat sheet in every way imaginable. He reminds me a bit of Franz Wagner. If he's there at 41, that's a yes for me. I'd take him at 25.

He has a great motor. Wouldnt hate that pick at all. The issue is, I dont think the Pels will have any roster spots. Whoever we take in that 2nd round, if we dont sell or trade the picks, will have to agree to a two-way and guys dont love doing that. For example, we wanted to take Austin Reeves last year but would only do so if he would agree to a 2-way. He said no, he would prefer to go undrafted.

[Century City]

Don't sleep on Johnny Davis. He's right in that #8 pick range. If Mathurin and Sharpe are off the board then you have to take a long look at him.

[MichaelMcNamara]

If you take Davis you are tripping down on iso mid range scoring with meh defense. Then you add Zion, another iso guy. I just don’t see how you maximize 4 iso guys, none of which makes play even above average D

He wouldn’t be in consideration for me personally unless you trade down to the mid teens and he somehow falls and is just too valuable an asset to pass up

[Century City]

If you take Davis you are tripping down on iso mid range scoring with meh defense. Then you add Zion, another iso guy. I just don’t see how you maximize 4 iso guys, none of which makes play even above average D

He wouldn’t be in consideration for me personally unless you trade down to the mid teens and he somehow falls and is just too valuable an asset to pass up

If you trade to the mid teens then Davis is most likely gone.

If you're trading to the mid teens and trying to avoid ISO guys but instead want team players who are better long distance shooters and who play defense then Ochai Agbaji would be the guy.

Maybe swap the 8 for Charlotte's 13 and 15.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I wouldn’t do any of that personally. I was just painting the very unlikely situation in which I might consider Davis

I would have zero interest in moving down. If anything I would overpay to move up. Like, pay way more than anybody on this board would be willing to. But I wouldn’t even consider moving down. Team needs quality not more quantity