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Thread: Guy You Would Gamble On

  1. #1

    Guy You Would Gamble On

    You look at some of the surprise teams this year and last and a big reason they overachieved is because they took a gamble on a non sure thing. A guy the league thought was washed or not worth his contract or a guy who underperformed based on draft expectations, etc. CP3 was massively overpaid - that was the narrative in Houston, and since then he has helped 2 franchises vastly outperform expectations. Julius Randle and Derrick Rose are catalysts for the Knicks. Blake gave Brooklyn great minutes. Clarkson was thought of as a chucker and Utah leaned into that and made him a 6th man. Denver gambled on a kid in the draft who was a #1 HS prospect but had potential chronic injury concerns. On and on.

    At some point, we will have to gamble on a guy who is undervalued relative to his ceiling, and hope he pays off. Looking at the landscape this offseason, who could be that guy for you? To give an example of how 'Buy Low' I am talking -- mine would be Kevin Love. I think the days of him being a major piece on a contender is over. And that is why I dont think contenders trade for him. His attitude will prevent rebuilding teams from bringing him in. But I truly believe that if he gets re-engaged and put in the right role, he could win 6th Man of the Year and average something absurd like 26/14 per 36. The key would be staying healthy and playing 65+ games a year. But what was the point of getting Aaron Nelson if he cant do what he did for Grant Hill in Phoenix? Love is my guy. Adams and Bledsoe for Love would be fine by me. Adams, Bledsoe, Iwundu, and multiple good 2nds for Love and Nance would be better.

    Who would you gamble on?
    @mcnamara247

  2. #2
    If they would really inlude Nance I would do it in a heartbeat.

  3. #3
    Saw Shamit saying very similar things about the idea of getting Buddy back - that whole ''player is over-extended where he is so maybe you could get them cheap but they could blossom if placed in a different role'' dynamic.

    I think it's definitely a good idea to explore. I don't think I would be willing to take that gamble on Love for a huge amount of value but the trade you describe is a pretty good deal. Bledsoe is someone we want gone anyway, Adams is perfectly movable for the right deal, Nance is solid (Even if I don't love him, plus he could always be potentially flipped again later), and it doesn't cost us any firsts.

    Buy low indeed.
    Yannick Nzosa/Ousmane Dieng/Jean Montero/Nikola Jovic/Paolo Banchero endorser

    Eye test people: analytics people watch more basketball than you do.

  4. #4
    Do you guys have any buy low guys? Doesnt have to be a Kevin Love thread. Genuinely curious

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Snarly View Post
    If they would really inlude Nance I would do it in a heartbeat.
    I would as well. Love is still very serviceable. But I have a hard time believing they would revamp their roster by getting rid of Nance as well. But we'll see. Btw MM, I like your train of thinking. I would take a gamble on Love to help space the floor.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by hornetzplaya View Post
    I would as well. Love is still very serviceable. But I have a hard time believing they would revamp their roster by getting rid of Nance as well. But we'll see. Btw MM, I like your train of thinking. I would take a gamble on Love to help space the floor.
    Every guy is available at a price. Larry freaking Nance isnt untouchable. Now, maybe you gotta do a protected 1st to get Nance too. Maybe all our good 2nds the next few years. But again, this wasnt meant to be a thread about that one specific trade or Kevin Love. Who is an outside of the box guy you would gamble on and bet on his fit or Aaron Nelson or Zion to make the game easier for him, etc?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Do you guys have any buy low guys? Doesnt have to be a Kevin Love thread. Genuinely curious
    I think I do see the Buddy argument. If his contract was huge then I wouldn't but he's one of the very very best shooters in basketball, potentially will be one of the very best shooters ever by the time he's done (based on his current path) and there are few single skills that will both be amplified by and provide support to Zion like elite shooting.

    His contract is declining as well, so that's a benefit. I'd support that move, depending on price.

    Would have to think about it for a bit longer to come up with some other guys myself.

  8. #8
    My gut is to gamble on older and even less valued guys around the league. I dont think Buddy is humbled yet, and I think he would want to start and/or be a massive part of the offense. I want a guy who is viewed as a clear net negative around the league. Somebody that other teams are saying that you have to pay us to take. A guy who will just be so happy to get out of his situation and get a fresh start (Buddy kind of fits that one). Another example would be Kemba, who I think could have a 2nd life doing what Lou Will did the last few years, previous to this one. Would you be vastly overpaying for that? Yes. But I'd rather overpay for that than Adams and Bledsoe

  9. #9
    If Minn wins the lottery and get Cade... What about Russell?

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Taker597 View Post
    If Minn wins the lottery and get Cade... What about Russell?
    I cant get there. Same as Buddy...i think he is 2 or 3 years from begging some good team to be a role player. But today, he still thinks he can be an All Star.

    The key to guys like him are when you get him. Some team is gonna get him later in this decade and he will be a bargain. Every team that has him on this contract will wish they didnt have him IMO

    Just my personal philosophy. I am looking for the 28-30 yr okd Russell. Who is somebody that has made a ton of money, barely won, put up good individual stats, and the league thinks is a black hole?

  11. #11
    Clarkson or Gary Trent Jr

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by akhan786 View Post
    Clarkson or Gary Trent Jr
    Neither of those guys are undervalued, seen as a net negative around the league. Trent is a FA that will have many teams pursuing him. Maybe I wasnt clear enough with the question

  13. #13
    John Wall count?

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by lawless522 View Post
    John Wall count?
    That would be a hell of a gamble.... I gotta be honest, I'd cry if we went after John wall lol.

  15. #15
    There really isn't many options. Let me look at expiring dudes

  16. #16
    Al Horford, an all around center who can shoot on a terrible contract, but he is still the same player he was when he signed that contract. He would add a veteran presence with a winning history as well. I’d trade Adams , Bledsoe, and a 2nd or 2 for Horford over Love any day. The contract only has 2 years left, and the fit actually makes sense next to Zion. Horford and SGA made OKC a competitive team until they were benched. Love is a bad defender, and the Pels don’t need 2 PFs who are subpar defenders. Griffin also tried to sign Horford 2 years ago.
    Last edited by Darkhorse985; 05-22-2021 at 05:47 PM.

  17. #17
    Tim Hardaway Jr if he wasn't already a UFA after this year.

  18. #18
    Hopefully some team out there thinks bledsoe fits in this category

    This is more of a small buy low but I think Tomas Satoransky could actually be a solid player for a team that has other guys to create. His FT% suggests he has more in him as a shooter, He shoots a nice percentage from the corners. He just needs more confidence. Vinson plus open looks off Zion actions could help there.

    I'd keep my eye on Kennard. Wouldnt take him for free, but if the Clippers lose to the Mavs and get desperate there's potential a team gets paid to take him to facilitate a clippers trade.

  19. #19
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    I know he's 35 years old, and may even become a UFA (Club Option may not be exercised), but I would love to have Goran Dragic on this team. He would be the perfect conduit until we identified a permanent fix for point (I'm still not sold on Kira anytime soon). Suppose Miami isn't interested in exercising their option for themselves but would be willing to do so in order to trade for a declining Bledsoe contract and two of our twos this year.

    A healthy Dragic would take Zion, JAX, and Ingram's games to another level offensively.
    Last edited by As I See It; 05-22-2021 at 11:20 PM.
    Disclaimer: I would never denigrate or defame Zion Williamson as a man or as a basketball player; he will go down as an NBA great and perhaps a Top 10+ player of all time. Any inference derived from any of my posts to the contrary is your mischaracterization of my words, or a sign of insecurity on your part (perhaps both).

    Respectfully,

    AISI

  20. #20
    The Franchise
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    I’d start with Beasley in Minnesota and maybe Culver too if cheap at the same time. Then Otto Porter, I don’t know if we had to trade for said player but could be a nice 3/4 player. Next would be Bagley, could be a nice bench big who could space the floor a little, If Aaron can keep him healthy. Maybe a change of scenery could bring out his potential.

  21. #21
    Back Door Man RUFshreve's Avatar
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    Klay Thompson is the guy that keeps coming to mind. His contract is huge and with his injury history, it would be a huge risk. If he did manage to come back in the same form as pre-injury Klay, you've got the ideal two guard to play with Zion.

    Now, is GSW even considering moving him? I can't imagine they will continue paying for all 4 of their big salary players(Curry, Klay, Draymond and Wiggins), but they probably prefer to move Wiggins.

  22. #22
    A lot of interesting names. Who is this offseasons Jeff Green? A guy who was overdrafted and has disappointed several places but could thrive at another position and/or a simplified role?

  23. #23
    The kemba talk is intriguing

  24. #24
    A Soulful Sports Fan Contributor Eman5805's Avatar
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    The key to this question is you gotta think about guys who you also might not like very much, I think. Like Lauri Markkanen or players who you liked i the draft way back but haven’t seemed to live up to their potential. Like Jarret Culver.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by 75saint View Post
    The kemba talk is intriguing
    He wouldnt be my top choice, but if you send out Bledsoe, Adams, and Iwundu for him and go with a Kemba/NAW backcourt, I could live with that. Kira develops behind Kemba and is hopefully ready when Kemba's contract ends or he is traded as an expiring.

    Regardless, my hope this year is to go center by committee. Bring in a guy like Gorgui Dieng, and bring back Willy. Heck, use a 2nd round pick on a guy who can start in the G League and come over if a center goes down for a few weeks. Pay 10-12 million for 4 centers in that situation, as opposed to 30 million to one like we did for Adams last year.

    Kemba/Kira
    NAW/Naji/Didi
    Ingram/Hart
    Zion/Gabriel
    Dieng/Hayes/Hernangomez

    Have your picks, cap space to make uneven trades or use Lonzo as a sign and trade to get a player, an exception and/or picks. Lonzo for Aminu, Archidiacano, and a 2025 1st would be my ideal in this situation. Draft Moody or Garuba, and I still got a ton of young players and a ton of future picks for when the star is put on the trade market. But in the mean time, I should be competitive with this team, especially if Zion improves.

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